Straight Talk About EV's

[canthai55]

 

[sirineou]

He is absolutely right. 

Without government subsidies EVs make no economic sense.  Below is a calculator that would tell you how much it costs in fuel per 1000 miles 

https://www.dollartimes.com/road-trip/1000  and for most EV it will take the lifetime of the vehicle to get back the premium you paid for it. 

but it is also fair to consider that for many EVs you get bells and whistles that you might not get with a conventional petro car, 

and that there are fewer maintenance costs, no oil changes, not timing pelts, 

and for many EVs you get the extra performance.  

 

[guzzi850m2]

I can't stand listen to that <deleted>.

I guess it depends on where you live regarding to cost of an EV.

In Denmark they have more yearly tax on conventional petrol cars from this year, environmental tax they call so everyone is scrambling getting either hybrid/plug-in hybrid or a EV vehicle. Further you can buy a so called green card so you can charge your car as much you want fairly cheap (at home). I think they also lowered the tax on those cars so they are cheaper to buy, in Denmark the taxes on cars are totally crazy.

One guy here was more or less charging for free using his solar panels but that means you have to charge during daylights, won't suit everyone for sure.   

[tgw]

4 minutes ago, guzzi850m2 said:

I can't stand listen to that <deleted>.

I guess it depends on where you live regarding to cost of an EV.

In Denmark they have more yearly tax on conventional petrol cars from this year, environmental tax they call so everyone is scrambling getting either hybrid/plug-in hybrid or a EV vehicle. Further you can buy a so called green card so you can charge your car as much you want fairly cheap (at home). I think they also lowered the tax on those cars so they are cheaper to buy, in Denmark the taxes on cars are totally crazy.

One guy here was more or less charging for free using his solar panels but that means you have to charge during daylights, won't suit everyone for sure.   

EV even barely make sense from an emissions standpoint.

I don't remember the exact figure, but I read that it takes about 7 years for the carbon balance of the average EV to become emissions-neutral ?

Short range, unusable for long trips, I think EV are not up to the task.

I think hydrogen-powered vehicles are much more likely to become a success.

 

[richard_smith237]

I don’t think EV’s are any more economical, I don’t think they are any cleaner when considering the resources required to produce them. 

 

I do think emission free transport is important, especially in built up areas.

Bangkok would be a great place for emission free vehicles, i.e. Electric vehicles, most of which perhaps do less than 100km per day (I think we do about 60km per day in our car for just the school run).

 

I would want an Electric car simply because of the extra grunt - they seem fun !

 

 

[guzzi850m2]

I think they mainly do it in DK for getting cleaner air in the city areas.

Sure unless a country uses carbon-free energy, it don't really help in the bigger picture.

Solid state batteries are coming soon, very fast charging and long range, then EV's will become very interesting.

I had a go in my friends Tesla when in DK last year (well he was driving) and this thing can really go, boy it's fast, overtaking is just awesome, you are pushed hard against the seat when flooring it from 80km/h. He almost hit the car in front because he started to accelerate when still behind the car he wanted to overtake, 555, should had waited until pulled out in the other lane. No doubt he was showing off, ha-ha and almost ending up in a fender bender.

Edited March 15, 2021 by guzzi850m2

[pedro01]

On 3/15/2021 at 6:51 PM, guzzi850m2 said:

I think they mainly do it in DK for getting cleaner air in the city areas.

Sure unless a country uses carbon-free energy, it don't really help in the bigger picture.

Solid state batteries are coming soon, very fast charging and long range, then EV's will become very interesting.

I had a go in my friends Tesla when in DK last year (well he was driving) and this thing can really go, boy it's fast, overtaking is just awesome, you are pushed hard against the seat when flooring it from 80km/h. He almost hit the car in front because he started to accelerate when still behind the car he wanted to overtake, 555, should had waited until pulled out in the other lane. No doubt he was showing off, ha-ha and almost ending up in a fender bender.

This extra acceleration uses additional energy.

It'll be legislated away at some point.

What we'll be left with is joyless cars, that are ultimately still powered by fossil fuels.

Hydrogen is the real solution. EVs are like curved TVs. No real reason for them to exist.

 

Edited March 16, 2021 by pedro01

[Nanaplaza666]

On 3/15/2021 at 6:51 PM, guzzi850m2 said:

I think they mainly do it in DK for getting cleaner air in the city areas.

Sure unless a country uses carbon-free energy, it don't really help in the bigger picture.

Solid state batteries are coming soon, very fast charging and long range, then EV's will become very interesting.

I had a go in my friends Tesla when in DK last year (well he was driving) and this thing can really go, boy it's fast, overtaking is just awesome, you are pushed hard against the seat when flooring it from 80km/h. He almost hit the car in front because he started to accelerate when still behind the car he wanted to overtake, 555, should had waited until pulled out in the other lane. No doubt he was showing off, ha-ha and almost ending up in a fender bender.

So you think when your experiensed friend already almost hit someone that it's a good idea for thai people to drive in ?? ????

[Nanaplaza666]

On 3/16/2021 at 10:05 PM, pedro01 said:

This extra acceleration uses additional energy.

It'll be legislated away at some point.

What we'll be left with is joyless cars, that are ultimately still powered by fossil fuels.

Hydrogen is the real solution. EVs are like curved TVs. No real reason for them to exist.

 

I think hybrid is ok for the moment, little electric helps using less feul so a little less polution and they don't need to be charged they get charged by the use of the engine . 

[digger70]

On 3/15/2021 at 6:28 PM, tgw said:

EV even barely make sense from an emissions standpoint.

I don't remember the exact figure, but I read that it takes about 7 years for the carbon balance of the average EV to become emissions-neutral ?

Short range, unusable for long trips, I think EV are not up to the task.

I think hydrogen-powered vehicles are much more likely to become a success.

 

They are going the Wrong way going with EV's .

Hydrogen  Fueled  ICE vehicles  Cleaner than Any Other Fuel.

[RocketDog]

All other things being equal (and they aren't actually) I'm simply not interested in buying a new battery pack every three years for $5,000-8,000 and basing my trips on where I can find charging stations. 

If I can make it the next 15 years without buying one I'll be happy. After that I'll have wings. (or not). 

[Slain]

In that case where are all the Hydrogen cars

[guzzi850m2]

52 minutes ago, Slain said:

In that case where are all the Hydrogen cars

That's spot on.

Volkswagen is going full bore on battery cars among many others.

They will open 6 gigafactories for partnered battery production aming at reducing cost.

 

https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/power-day-volkswagen-presents-technology-roadmap-for-batteries-and-charging-up-to-2030-6891

 

[canthai55]

9 minutes ago, guzzi850m2 said:

Volkswagen is going full bore on battery cars among many others.

And you would trust this company ? After their fuel economy lies ? 555

[guzzi850m2]

1 hour ago, canthai55 said:

And you would trust this company ? After their fuel economy lies ? 555

Trust them? What does that have to do with it?

They hopefully learned a lesson from that one, how much were they fined for that; billions

[Sakeopete]

Has anyone asked what will happen when the world goes to EV's and fuel demand is low. If I'm not mistake refining a barrel of oil yields about 70 - 80% fuel. Before the invention of the automobiles gasoline was poured into rivers as waste in the USA. If we take away the need for gasoline and diesel how will we dispose of them? Can't dump them into the rivers anymore. If oil companies can't sell 70-80% of the refined product they will go out of business along with oil producers. We still need oil to make just about everything. Can we use plant based oils like palm to replace the petrochemical products from crude oil? Hemp to replace polyester fibers? Maybe but look what happened to virgin forests of Indonesia and Malaysia when the palm oil boom started. Millions of acres burned along with the endangered animals that lived in them. We here in Thailand were choked out from the smoke.

Orangutans fleeing the forest were killed by villagers as they seeked refuge from the flames. Remember the smoke from Indonesia from burning those forest that produced more CO2 in a day than America produces in a year. The EU finally ban palm oil as bio fuel because of it. So if oil refiners stop refining crude oil where will the alternative come from? Corn can make plastics I use them almost daily but again when corn was used to make alcohol thousands of Mexicans went hungry and forests were converted to farmland. The Amazon is already in trouble it will likely be wiped out to grow Green Alternatives. Wait and see how much CO2 is release from the worlds forests being burnt to grow alternatives for petrochemicals.

This whole green movement to EV and alternative energy reminds me of when I was a boy and environmentalists convinced the world that paper shopping bags were hazardous and glass milk bottles used too much energy/chemicals to clean. The miracle fix was plastics look how well that turned out now we have the Great Pacific Garbage Patch and micro plastics everywhere.

Greenies should consider the consequences' carefully of what destroying oil businesses will do to the environment. Human greed and your need for I-phones or computers to post nonsense will not go away. Something will have to replace the oil and it will likely do more harm than the CO2 from burning fuel.

[ctxa]

I've always loved Diesel cars. 

I don't dislike the idea of washing machines on tires (EVs) hehe. In fact I quite like it. 

BUT, I will only buy an EV once there is no other options. Once they have banned the Diesel cars, or they are so ridiculously expensive that it is not worth it anymore. In the mean time I will try to leverage all these years until they ban internal combustion cars... 

And I think this is the same opinion as a large part of the population. Since EVs are not any cheaper to purchase or maintain than internal combustion cars in the majority of countries. (China perhaps being one exception, given that in big cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing,... a local license plate is worth onwards of 50K USD, whereas if you purchase an EV you get the license plate for free).

Edited March 19, 2021 by ctxa

[madhav]

On 3/18/2021 at 3:25 PM, RocketDog said:

All other things being equal (and they aren't actually) I'm simply not interested in buying a new battery pack every three years for $5,000-8,000 and basing my trips on where I can find charging stations. 

If I can make it the next 15 years without buying one I'll be happy. After that I'll have wings. (or not). 

Tech is improving a lot. So much has changed from the 1st gen Nissan leaf.

Latest Lexus has a ONE MILLION km warranty on the battery.

Latest 350Kw/Hr charge speeds means an average 60kw battery could be charged 10-80% in 15 min. 

Not difficult to find 400km range on most new upcoming models. 99% of us won't drive more than 50km a day. If by chance you do need to drive more than 400km, you would need to have some kind of cybernetic upgrades to go more than 400km without a 15 min stop for food and a toilet break.

[canthai55]

7 hours ago, madhav said:

Latest 350Kw/Hr charge speeds

Where is the infrastructure ?

350Kw = 1460 A single phase  840 A three phase

Where are you going to find these power points ?

Answer - nowhere

[RocketDog]

10 hours ago, madhav said:

Tech is improving a lot. So much has changed from the 1st gen Nissan leaf.

Latest Lexus has a ONE MILLION km warranty on the battery.

Latest 350Kw/Hr charge speeds means an average 60kw battery could be charged 10-80% in 15 min. 

Not difficult to find 400km range on most new upcoming models. 99% of us won't drive more than 50km a day. If by chance you do need to drive more than 400km, you would need to have some kind of cybernetic upgrades to go more than 400km without a 15 min stop for food and a toilet break.

Good news I guess. 

Many battery vendors have warranties but they are pro-rated. 

If the battery fails before the million miles does Lexus pay for the whole cost or only part of it? 

Important point. 

 

As an electronic design engineer I've watched the evolution of batteries and as we are all aware progress in that area has been very slow and incremental compared to the rest of technology. We've seen batteries go from carbon zinc to nickel cadmium to nickel metal hydride to lithium. The fact is that each was heralded as a major advance. None of them actually have been  comparatively. Does the lithium battery in your phone go a million miles? How about the one in your laptop? Your electric drill, vacuum, etc. Why not? Lexus does not have any proprietary magic battery technology. 

 

The bottom line is that I simply don't believe a car battery pack will last a million miles. What else in a car lasts that long? Even electric windows fail before that.  Why do we all have lead acid batteries in our gas and diesel cars? This is all just marketing. 

 

So color me very skeptical and I stand by my original statement. 

Everybody can make their own assessment and investment. 

Edited March 22, 2021 by RocketDog

[mistral53]

From and engineering standpoint, there is nothing more elegant than the electric motor: basically one moving part, does not care whether we drive 5 meters or 5000 or 500,000 meters, does not wear out for a very long time - it's simply brilliant. A modern ICE is a wonderful engineering feat, and as complex and precise as a mechanical watch, heat cycles with all it's negative implications, needs constant servicing - it is clearly inferior to an electric motor by any measure.

 

Batteries are the weak link in the electrification of vehicles, they ought to be a step gap measure until better energy sources are available.

 

I don't believe the EV vs. ICE debate should be black and white - ICE vehicles will be around for a very long time, assuming real quantum leaps in energy sources will not be achieved for another 50 to 100 years.

[canthai55]

Quick - all you adherents of "Electric Jesus" as John Cadogan calls Elon Musk ...

Track them, find them, battery problems solved for years !

https://www.indiatimes.com/technology/news/international-space-station-batteries-29-ton-falling-to-earth-536377.html

[madhav]

On 3/22/2021 at 8:57 AM, RocketDog said:

Good news I guess. 

Many battery vendors have warranties but they are pro-rated. 

If the battery fails before the million miles does Lexus pay for the whole cost or only part of it? 

Important point. 

 

As an electronic design engineer I've watched the evolution of batteries and as we are all aware progress in that area has been very slow and incremental compared to the rest of technology. We've seen batteries go from carbon zinc to nickel cadmium to nickel metal hydride to lithium. The fact is that each was heralded as a major advance. None of them actually have been  comparatively. Does the lithium battery in your phone go a million miles? How about the one in your laptop? Your electric drill, vacuum, etc. Why not? Lexus does not have any proprietary magic battery technology. 

 

The bottom line is that I simply don't believe a car battery pack will last a million miles. What else in a car lasts that long? Even electric windows fail before that.  Why do we all have lead acid batteries in our gas and diesel cars? This is all just marketing. 

 

So color me very skeptical and I stand by my original statement. 

Everybody can make their own assessment and investment. 

It’s 1 million km not miles, and also it must be within a 10 year period, and a failure to them is anything under 70% charge, so these are the limitations.
 

Most BEV leave a buffer of 10% or so, meaning you don’t get full use of the battery. So after 3000 cycles, even if it lost 40% it is still within warranty.

 

In my experience most new iPhones hold more than 80% after 1000 cycles. If the tech is better in car batteries, 2-3k cycles? Who knows. 

Edited March 24, 2021 by madhav

[Yellowtail]

On 3/24/2021 at 11:48 PM, madhav said:

It’s 1 million km not miles, and also it must be within a 10 year period, and a failure to them is anything under 70% charge, so these are the limitations.
 

Most BEV leave a buffer of 10% or so, meaning you don’t get full use of the battery. So after 3000 cycles, even if it lost 40% it is still within warranty.

 

In my experience most new iPhones hold more than 80% after 1000 cycles. If the tech is better in car batteries, 2-3k cycles? Who knows. 

 

And when your iphone is battery is down to 80% you have to start carrying a charger with you...

[Yellowtail]

On 3/22/2021 at 8:57 AM, RocketDog said:

Good news I guess. 

Many battery vendors have warranties but they are pro-rated. 

If the battery fails before the million miles does Lexus pay for the whole cost or only part of it? 

Important point. 

 

As an electronic design engineer I've watched the evolution of batteries and as we are all aware progress in that area has been very slow and incremental compared to the rest of technology. We've seen batteries go from carbon zinc to nickel cadmium to nickel metal hydride to lithium. The fact is that each was heralded as a major advance. None of them actually have been  comparatively. Does the lithium battery in your phone go a million miles? How about the one in your laptop? Your electric drill, vacuum, etc. Why not? Lexus does not have any proprietary magic battery technology. 

 

The bottom line is that I simply don't believe a car battery pack will last a million miles. What else in a car lasts that long? Even electric windows fail before that.  Why do we all have lead acid batteries in our gas and diesel cars? This is all just marketing. 

 

So color me very skeptical and I stand by my original statement. 

Everybody can make their own assessment and investment. 

 

I wonder if the battery warranty is transferable? No many people spending that kind of dough for are going to drive it for ten years. They have certainly have the warranty replacement cost factored in. With the warranty replacement they'll probably be selling "upgrades" to cover much of the cost.

 

I can never get past the burning oil to produce a rotational force to generate electricity to charge a battery to produce rotational force to propel the vehicle. 

[RocketDog]

12 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

 

I wonder if the battery warranty is transferable? No many people spending that kind of dough for are going to drive it for ten years. They have certainly have the warranty replacement cost factored in. With the warranty replacement they'll probably be selling "upgrades" to cover much of the cost.

 

I can never get past the burning oil to produce a rotational force to generate electricity to charge a battery to produce rotational force to propel the vehicle. 

Good points all. 

Natural gas powers many generating plants in USA now. Oil is best saved for use in fertilizers and plastics. 

IMO there are hidden costs in electric vehicles. 

[Yellowtail]

2 hours ago, RocketDog said:

Good points all. 

Natural gas powers many generating plants in USA now. Oil is best saved for use in fertilizers and plastics. 

IMO there are hidden costs in electric vehicles. 

 

And with (as I understand it) China controlling the bulk of  "rare earth" metals, as we get more and more dependent on batteries I do not see those prices coming down.

[RocketDog]

5 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

 

And with (as I understand it) China controlling the bulk of  "rare earth" metals, as we get more and more dependent on batteries I do not see those prices coming down.

China has been buying mines and production rights for rare earth minerals (lithium and others) for more than a decade. Other countries are taking notice now. 

So you are correct. 

They are the major producers of batteries and solar panels globally. Their strategy and intent are clear and omination is the key word. 

[madhav]

22 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

 

And when your iphone is battery is down to 80% you have to start carrying a charger with you...

If you look into it, something like 99% of people who own cars will almost never drive more than 50km a day. Their car sits parked in their driveway for most of its life, easily charging at home when they sleep. The whole range anxiety is for the most part  psychological. 

 

22 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

 

I wonder if the battery warranty is transferable? No many people spending that kind of dough for are going to drive it for ten years. They have certainly have the warranty replacement cost factored in. With the warranty replacement they'll probably be selling "upgrades" to cover much of the cost.

 

I can never get past the burning oil to produce a rotational force to generate electricity to charge a battery to produce rotational force to propel the vehicle. 

Thailand is not really into renewable energy. However things will eventually  change. It can be done.
 

Scotland for example as a country is powered pretty much entirely by wind. Thailand could easily do it with a combined approach of solar, wind, hydro, tidal etc. I suspect the old gas industry would have a few things to say about it.

Remember the amount of energy (and rare earth minerals) required to drill, refine and transport fossil fuels in its finished product is massive. 
 

No system is perfect but something has to change as the current system is not sustainable. BEV are far from perfect but in my opinion they are a step in the right direction. The tech will definitely improve.

[Yellowtail]

10 minutes ago, madhav said:

If you look into it, something like 99% of people who own cars will almost never drive more than 50km a day. Their car sits parked in their driveway for most of its life, easily charging at home when they sleep. The whole range anxiety is for the most part  psychological. 

 

I do not believe the 99% claim, so if you have facts to back this up please post them. That said, I do think it is a large percentage. So for the people that live close enough to work to round trip every day on a charge they would be great, but great ONLY for going back and forth to work. What if I want to leave from work and drive to Pattaya for the weekend?

 

Do not most people want to a few road trips a year? I go at least three or four times, on long trips, and at least ten times to Pattaya. I don't it is that unusual for people to want to take their car on a holiday.

 

I lived in SoCal and drove 110 mile a day round trip, that's about 165km. That is not considerer a particulate long commute. Many people drive much farther. People that live in the suburbs and work in the city DRIVE.

 

10 minutes ago, madhav said:

Thailand is not really into renewable energy. However things will eventually  change. It can be done.

 

Thailand want cost effective energy to grow their economy, they cannot get that from renewables.

 

10 minutes ago, madhav said:

Scotland for example as a country is powered pretty much entirely by wind. Thailand could easily do it with a combined approach of solar, wind, hydro, tidal etc. I suspect the old gas industry would have a few things to say about it.

 

How much electricity does the average home in Scotland? Don't they use mostly gas for heat? What percentage of homes have air conditioning?

 

10 minutes ago, madhav said:

Remember the amount of energy (and rare earth minerals) required to drill, refine and transport fossil fuels in its finished product is massive. 

 

Do you have any data that supports this? If that is so, why is it so much cheaper than renewables?

 

10 minutes ago, madhav said:

No system is perfect but something has to change as the current system is not sustainable. BEV are far from perfect but in my opinion they are a step in the right direction. The tech will definitely improve.

 

If Scotland is near 100% renewable, why is that not perfect?