1 minute ago, Danderman123 said:

No contradiction between lower numbers of new cases and increased deaths. Deaths lag new infections by up to 21 days. All over the world. We can expect maybe 2 more weeks of rising deaths.

Going to be interesting.....the number of daily infections can be manipulated......deaths can't........or certainly much more difficult to manipulate.

1 minute ago, Surelynot said:

Going to be interesting.....the number of daily infections can be manipulated......deaths can't........or certainly much more difficult to manipulate.

Also, it's hard to hide full hospitals.

5 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You seem to have some sort of problem grasping the enormity of what is happening in India. I guess those are just numbers to you.

 

And, yes, a small country with only 70 million people can suffer the same as India, if the virus is left unchecked.

Everything is proportionate.

6 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

Thailand largely controlled the virus early in the pandemic through shutdowns and strict border controls

 

and by testing less than 1% of the population and a huge amount of denial and delusion.

21 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Going to be interesting.....the number of daily infections can be manipulated......deaths can't........or certainly much more difficult to manipulate.

So not some conspiracy lies about the deaths? ????

 

I agree with you and if true, Thailand has one of the lowest death rates in the world at about 3.5 deaths per one million population.

Deaths as percent of positive cases about 1/3rd of 1 percent. Most of the world seems to be around 1 to 2 percent.

To add, if the number of cases are actually higher which many believe, but the deaths are in fact a fairly accurate measure, it could be much lower then 1/3rd of 1 percent.

 

Bottom line is, this is still dangerous but in comparison to the rest of the world even if the numbers are close to true, at this point the chances of dying here from Covid are very very slim.  

46 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Well, the stripped down figure for just influenza  ranges from 300 to 7000 deaths per year.

.The overall incidence of influenza cases over 8.5 months between January 1st and September 18th, 2017 was 177.75 per 100 000 population (approximate range: 76.88 to 594.59 per 100 000 population).8 The estimated mortality rate of influenza-related respiratory illnesses in Thai population was 6.1 (95% confidence interval: 0.5-12.4) per 100 000 population or about 3600 deaths (range: 300-7000 deaths) per year.9 

 

 

I forgot to provide a link. 

"The overall incidence of influenza cases over 8.5 months between January 1st and September 18th, 2017 was 177.75 per 100 000 population (approximate range: 76.88 to 594.59 per 100 000 population).8 The estimated mortality rate of influenza-related respiratory illnesses in Thai population was 6.1 (95% confidence interval: 0.5-12.4) per 100 000 population or about 3600 deaths (range: 300-7000 deaths) per year."

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0046958020982925

6 minutes ago, sapson said:

 

and by testing less than 1% of the population and a huge amount of denial and delusion.

If there was such a huge amount of denial and delusion as you claim, Thailand would be seeing death rates and hospital collpases similar to those afflicting India. But it's not so if there is a huge amount of denial and delusion, you might consider looking elsewhere for it.

6 hours ago, Jonathan Fairfield said:

the highly transmissible B.1.1.7 variant and has accounted for about half of its total cases and deaths

The Thais know who to thank for that one.

Edited May 2, 20215 yr by RobMuir

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If there was such a huge amount of denial and delusion as you claim, Thailand would be seeing death rates and hospital collpases similar to those afflicting India. But it's not so if there is a huge amount of denial and delusion, you might consider looking elsewhere for it.

plenty of time yet. 

2 minutes ago, RobMuir said:

The Thais know who to thank for that one.

Maybe the Thai's know something I don't. Do you know?

21 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

 

Bottom line is, this is still dangerous but in comparison to the rest of the world even if the numbers are close to true, at this point the chances of dying here from Covid are very very slim.  

As long as the restrictions are in place, yes.

 

A question for everyone: how many Farangs have died from Covid in Thailand?

7 hours ago, dinsdale said:

if this is correct it's not good.

And if it’s wrong then it is fantastic! 

17 minutes ago, RobMuir said:

The Thais know who to thank for that one.

They may, but we do not.  Please enlighten us.

25 minutes ago, RobMuir said:

The Thais know who to thank for that one.

Global Britain?

26 minutes ago, RobMuir said:

The Thais know who to thank for that one.

Yup.....CHYNA

20 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

As long as the restrictions are in place, yes.

 

A question for everyone: how many Farangs have died from Covid in Thailand?

Enough, without going over the old reports then its around a dozen so far maybe more

Did my 72h travel test in bkk pty hosp result tomorrow hope to head back to ireland tues

 

Sorry things have got a little bit dodgy here hope to get phzier jab in 10 days there.

 

closing everything, enforcement and indivual responsibility is tough going on livelihoods

 

But there has to be a plan out of this communicated loudly vacs, gradule reopenings and income supports as being done in the west, good look all stay safe.

7 hours ago, robblok said:

 

Lockdowns will never stop the pandemic. It merely stops the sharp increase so hospitals can cope. If it rises too much hospitals will be overrun and death rates sore. That is the only reason for a lockdown. Not to beat the virus. Only vaccinations can do that.

Except there is no proof at all that vaccines will do that.. Vaccines don't beat a virus.  If they work well they lessen the most dramatic effects for most people.

Edited May 2, 20215 yr by starky

1 hour ago, Surelynot said:

Going to be interesting.....the number of daily infections can be manipulated......deaths can't........or certainly much more difficult to manipulate.

Sure they can by testing to a certain limited capacity many undiagnosed deaths can be missed by the system they have, which is limited testing and as some can attest to the deaths can be quickly cremated without much notice and put down to viral pneumonia.Not terribly difficult and not much of diddling of numbers, easy peasy.

4 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Nice to see Phuket not listed. 

Phuket will shortly be opened to the millions of tourists waiting to visit according to TAT so its probably  close to exempt from Covid by some miracle ..........

 

Similar to the farcical charade of the of the rest of the country being virtually covid free for a year until some minor testing was allowed to happen and now the poops really hit the fan.!

6 minutes ago, starky said:

Except there is no proof at all that vaccines will do that.. Vaccines don't beat a virus.  If they work well they lessen the most dramatic effects for most people.

That is what beating is in this context. I mean nobody with half a brain thinks that a vaccine cures the patient. Its a preventative .

4 minutes ago, robblok said:

That is what beating is in this context. I mean nobody with half a brain thinks that a vaccine cures the patient. Its a preventative .

Sorry I must have missed your context let's see what the actual results are concerning vaccines and variants amongst populations over the next few years then we can have a discussion about how well it was beaten. Hopefully your correct.

2 minutes ago, starky said:

Sorry I must have missed your context let's see what the actual results are concerning vaccines and variants amongst populations over the next few years then we can have a discussion about how well it was beaten. Hopefully your correct.

Rather than wait, you could take a look at Israel and the UK to see the effects of covid vaccines right?

1 minute ago, starky said:

Sorry I must have missed your context let's see what the actual results are concerning vaccines and variants amongst populations over the next few years then we can have a discussion about how well it was beaten. Hopefully your correct.

I almost wrote a nasty post too as i read your first post and thought you meant vaccines were useless. Then i saw that you liked the post and saw you correct it and it made more sense.

 

Anyway I don't think there are people who think a vaccine will cure covid (unless stupid) so seemed logical that vaccines beat covid an other way in the way you described it. But yea beating could be read  as curing too. But that was not what i meant.

2 minutes ago, robblok said:

I almost wrote a nasty post too as i read your first post and thought you meant vaccines were useless. Then i saw that you liked the post and saw you correct it and it made more sense.

 

Anyway I don't think there are people who think a vaccine will cure covid (unless stupid) so seemed logical that vaccines beat covid an other way in the way you described it. But yea beating could be read  as curing too. But that was not what i meant.

No need to be nasty Robb lol I agree in principle. 

Just now, starky said:

No need to be nasty Robb lol I agree in principle. 

I know i realized that, but get a bit bored with all the deniers and so on. By reading too many of those posts i misinterpreted yours.

59 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Global Britain?

but Britain only refined it, the original patent belongs to our friends in China I hear.

4 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Rather than wait, you could take a look at Israel and the UK to see the effects of covid vaccines right?

So UK 1900 cases a day pretty much same as Thailand right? So is that what is considered an acceptable case load? All the new expert virologists and epidemiologists seem talking about viral loads and mRNA delivery seem so inconsistent on one hand we all need to be scared and in perpetual lock down on the other cases that would be totally unacceptable elsewhere are fine in other places.

  I look at Australia as the worst example of this and it doesn't bode well for the future and whatever success the UK and Israel is having though looking promising is not indicative of what the long term results regarding vaccines and certain variants may mean. I don't know enough about it to make any sort of definitive statement regardless of how many on this forum seem to be at the cutting edge of epidemiological pathology. 

15 minutes ago, starky said:

Sorry I must have missed your context let's see what the actual results are concerning vaccines and variants amongst populations over the next few years then we can have a discussion about how well it was beaten. Hopefully your correct.

The numbers are already out. The vaccine works. The quicker everyone gets jabbed, the less variants we'll have.

5 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

but Britain only refined it, the original patent belongs to our friends in China I hear.

No cases of B1.1.7 in China.

Luckily they have prevented it.

Edited May 2, 20215 yr by RobMuir