1 minute ago, starky said:

So UK 1900 cases a day pretty much same as Thailand right? So is that what is considered an acceptable case load? All the new expert virologists and epidemiologists seem talking about viral loads and mRNA delivery seem so inconsistent on one hand we all need to be scared and in perpetual lock down on the other cases that would be totally unacceptable elsewhere are fine in other places.

  I look at Australia as the worst example of this and it doesn't bode well for the future and whatever success the UK and Israel is having though looking promising is not indicative of what the long term results regarding vaccines and certain variants may mean. I don't know enough about it to make any sort of definitive statement regardless of how many on this forum seem to be at the cutting edge of epidemiological pathology. 

I think the accepted case load depends on the hospital capabilities of the country. I assume the UK is still a bit better then Thailand.

 

What i read about in the Netherlands is that many other operations are not done because there are no beds. 

 

Just for the record so people are dying because they can't have their operation because hospitals have no extra manpower ect. Those deaths are of course not registered as covid. 

34 minutes ago, starky said:

Except there is no proof at all that vaccines will do that.. Vaccines don't beat a virus.  If they work well they lessen the most dramatic effects for most people.

Except for Polio.

 

And Smallpox.

 

And Diptheria.

5 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

The numbers are already out. The vaccine works. The quicker everyone gets jabbed, the less variants we'll have.

Well therein lies the rub. How many of the tinfoil hat, anti vax, fruit loop brigade will flat our refuse to get vaccinated? 

1 minute ago, starky said:

So UK 1900 cases a day pretty much same as Thailand right? So is that what is considered an acceptable case load? All the new expert virologists and epidemiologists seem talking about viral loads and mRNA delivery seem so inconsistent on one hand we all need to be scared and in perpetual lock down on the other cases that would be totally unacceptable elsewhere are fine in other places.

  I look at Australia as the worst example of this and it doesn't bode well for the future and whatever success the UK and Israel is having though looking promising is not indicative of what the long term results regarding vaccines and certain variants may mean. I don't know enough about it to make any sort of definitive statement regardless of how many on this forum seem to be at the cutting edge of epidemiological pathology. 

Uk around that currently yes but in context, thats down from 67,000 a day at peak since the vaccine roll outs and thats with only 50% or the population inoculated, speaks for itself really.

 

Israel just in the very low 3 digits down from 10,000 a day, they have around 62% of population inoculated. 

 

The figures for deaths and hospitalizations show similar decreases. Regards any future variants nobody is denying that boosters maybe needed but then its just something we all need to live with. 

 

Actually regards boosters, the UK has just filled an order for an extra 60 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine as it puts together plans for a vaccination booster programme in the autumn for the most vulnerable.

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Except for Polio.

 

And Smallpox.

 

And Diptheria.

Diphtheria not a virus

Don't really have enough room to put all the virus' that haven't been eradicated but I guess 2 out of the innumerable number of virus isn't a bad start. Well done Earth!

3 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Uk around that currently yes but in context, thats down from 67,000 a day at peak since the vaccine roll outs and thats with only 50% or the population inoculated, speaks for itself really.

 

Israel just in the very low 3 digits down from 10,000 a day, they have around 62% of population inoculated. 

 

The figures for deaths and hospitalizations show similar decreases. Regards any future variants nobody is denying that boosters maybe needed but then its just something we all need to live with. 

 

Actually regards boosters, the UK has just filled an order for an extra 60 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid vaccine as it puts together plans for a vaccination booster programme in the autumn for the most vulnerable.

Not disagreeing what I'm saying is the context is the problem for us moving forward . It appears for Australia and  New Zealand zero is the acceptable amount of cases. I agree totally with we all need to live with it and with any luck vaccines will make that a reality.

  Im no expert, don't pretend to be and never concerned myself with viruses 15 months ago exactly like everyone else in the world. Nor am I having a go at you just the tedium of reading other people's regurgitated knowledge they have simply cut and paste off Google or talking about viral loads like they have been studying epidemiology their entire life seems disingenuous to me. Cheers.

35 minutes ago, RobMuir said:

No cases of B1.1.7 in China.

Luckily they have prevented it.

I didn't say there was did I?

 

I said the original patent

 

ie strain if you found that difficult to understand came from China.

1 hour ago, FarFlungFalang said:

Sure they can by testing to a certain limited capacity many undiagnosed deaths can be missed by the system they have, which is limited testing and as some can attest to the deaths can be quickly cremated without much notice and put down to viral pneumonia.Not terribly difficult and not much of diddling of numbers, easy peasy.

Excess deaths are the key...... assuming the actual numbers aren't manipulated.......then cause of death is immaterial.

8 hours ago, HaoleBoy said:

Keeping coffee shops open during the day for in-shop service works too if police did random checks.  Warning first time, then shut the place down for 7 days if limits weren't adhered to.

 

Keeping more people working will help the Thais overall, but it seems it must be all or nothing.

 

Of the two nearest me, one decided to shut yesterday for 2 weeks.

The other is just doing take away. I was in there this morning and they told me the 'inspectors' were due around some time today and they would be shut down if caught with customers sitting inside.

All the chairs/tables were stacked up.

5 hours ago, edwinchester said:

Thailand's infection and death figures are broadly similar to those in the UK.

 

 

Could you clarify on that assertion ? I am not able to locate any statistics supporting this. 

The B 1.1.7 variant spreads like wildfire.  Our cases here are now 70 percent of the variant.  It's nearly completely taken over in a few short months.

Keep wearing your mask, social distance, etc. Thailand.  If anyone can stop if you fine people can.  

11 minutes ago, Surelynot said:

Excess deaths are the key...... assuming the actual numbers aren't manipulated.......then cause of death is immaterial.

Why is everyone going on about deaths?  That's not what the pandemic is about.  It's about overwhelming the entire country and health care system.  

Look at India, people are dying in the streets.  There is no health care there now, no oxygen.  I know this makes some people gleeful - and there is a special place for these people.  

7 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

critical condition increased 15% just in the past day, rising 125 patients from 829 on Saturday to a pandemic record high 954 on Sunday. Officials said 270 of those were requiring ventilators to breathe -- high levels that continue to strain the Thai health care system.

Do you know how many critical care beds and ICU units Thailand have in total?

57 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Except for Polio.

 

And Smallpox.

 

And Diptheria.

Let me just add a few more viral infections that the world has vaccines for:

 

Ebola, Hep B, Influenza, Japanese encephalitis, Measles, Meningitis,  Mumps, Viral Pneumonia, Polio, Rabies, Rotavirus, Rubella, Varicella, Yellow Fever

 

From WHO

only a couple of days ago a minister claimed the worst was over....so it was wishful thinking.

 

There seems to be a lot of hope pinned on vaccines. As the majority of the country won't be vaccinated till next year, one would think that is wishful thinking too.

9 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

This wave has peaked.

 

However, since fatalities are a lagging indicator, expect deaths to increase for the next week or so.

You have to love all the forum health experts and their predictions.

 

Specially those that have no clue what the government is up to.

22 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Do you know how many critical care beds and ICU units Thailand have in total?

 

It's been hard to nail down the MoPH on that, and they keep changing the numbers they report...  Last report I said, they said they were at about 80%+ capacity in BKK, which is where the largest portion of critical cases are occurring.

 

They've talked about regular ICU beds at some points, and then about Air Isolation rooms/beds at other points in terms of handling critical COVID patients.  I've had no luck in trying to reconcile the various different versions and reports of things on this.

 

Right now, there are almost 1,000 critical COVID cases nationwide hospitalized. How they're handling those, given the first two categories of BKK numbers below, I haven't heard exactly explained.

 

This is the latest report I've seen from MoPH for Bangkok dated a couple of days ago back when the critical patients number was probably closer to around 700-800. But the critical patient count has gone up more or less another 200 patients since this report below was generated:

 

 

 

And then this was an item in the Thai news about a week back when the critical case numbers were much lower:

 

 

 

 

Edited May 2, 20215 yr by TallGuyJohninBKK

8 minutes ago, bwpage3 said:

You have to love all the forum health experts and their predictions.

 

Specially those that have no clue what the government is up to.

Last week, new infections hit 2800. Now, infections are much lower. That’s the textbook definition of hitting a peak and then declining.

 

As for deaths lagging new infections by up to 21 days, that’s textbook.

 

You may not like my facts, but you don’t get your own.

9 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Per ThaiPBS:

 

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/ThaiPBSWorld/posts/4367856929926270

 

Overall not bad 2 weeks after Songkran travel. Other countries would cheer, doomsayers whinge around. Live with it.

1 hour ago, realfunster said:

 

Could you clarify on that assertion ? I am not able to locate any statistics supporting this. 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Just now, edwinchester said:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Uk daily cases are hovering around 2k recently, deaths yesterday were in single figures.

This does nothing to help the bed shortage or testing facilities for walk in people requiring a covid test.

 

8 hospitals in Thailand have been temporarily closed after their medical personnel became infected with COVID-19, or had to be quarantined, because a number of patients concealed facts about their infections.

 

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/8-thai-hospitals-closed-after-patients-conceal-facts-about-their-covid-19-exposure/

 

 

10 hours ago, edwinchester said:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 

OK, I see you are referring to the past couple of weeks timeframe where case numbers in UK and Thailand are around the 2,500 mark.

 

I am not really sure why you are comparing Thailand and UK, apart from a similarity in case numbers for the last couple of weeks, they couldn't be more different in terms of COVID impact ?

 

By way of perspective :

 

- As at May 1, 2021 the UK has a 2,194 seven day case moving average. It has been above 2,000 per day, every day,  since September 7, 2020...that's an 8 month period.

- On April 27, 2021, Thailand went above a 2,000 seven day average for the first time. On May 1, that figured has already retraced to 2,003. By the time you read this, it will have probably already dropped below 2,000 based on May 2 case reporting.

- Peak daily cases in the UK were 68,000, in early January 2021.

- From December 15,2020 to January 24, 2021 they were running above 25,000 cases per day

- UK 4,400,000 cases & 127,000 deaths.

An off topic post about Tucker Carlson/Trump has been removed:

 

Forum Netiquette:

 

7. Please do not post off-topic responses in an attempt to hijack the thread. Such posts will be deleted. 

38 minutes ago, realfunster said:

 

OK, I see you are referring to the past couple of weeks timeframe where case numbers in UK and Thailand are around the 2,500 mark.

 

I am not really sure why you are comparing Thailand and UK, apart from a similarity in case numbers for the last couple of weeks, they couldn't be more different in terms of COVID impact ?

 

By way of perspective :

 

- As at May 1, 2021 the UK has a 2,194 seven day case moving average. It has been above 2,000 per day, every day,  since September 7, 2020...that's an 8 month period.

- On April 27, 2021, Thailand went above a 2,000 seven day average for the first time. On May 1, that figured has already retraced to 2,003. By the time you read this, it will have probably already dropped below 2,000 based on May 2 case reporting.

- Peak daily cases in the UK were 68,000, in early January 2021.

- From December 15,2020 to January 24, 2021 they were running above 25,000 cases per day

- UK 4,400,000 cases & 127,000 deaths.

The UKs covid response last year was nothing short of disastrous and imo resulted in 10's of thousands of totally unesessary deaths.

However, the huge amount of testing there and the vaccine rollout has been quite a success story, again imo.

What I am worried about is that the very limited amount of testing currently going on in Thailand is masking the true extent of the pandemic here.

38 minutes ago, edwinchester said:

The UKs covid response last year was nothing short of disastrous and imo resulted in 10's of thousands of totally unesessary deaths.

However, the huge amount of testing there and the vaccine rollout has been quite a success story, again imo.

What I am worried about is that the very limited amount of testing currently going on in Thailand is masking the true extent of the pandemic here.

 

I share your concerns but feel we would be hearing about significant stress on the health system and/or excess deaths in Thailand via social and mainstream media. Growing case numbers may well lead to the above but we haven’t reached that point yet. With a decent lockdown in place (in Bangkok at least), I am hopeful new daily cases have plateaued and will start to decrease over the next week. Due to the lag between infection and onset of medical issues, unfortunately we will see another 1-2 weeks of elevated deaths.

 

 

 

Thai Enquirer

 

@ThaiEnquirer

·

15m

 

 

Infection numbers climb over 2,000 cases again on Monday with one of the worst days for fatalities in Thailand with 31 deaths. #WhatsHappeningInThailand #โควิค19 #โควิดวันนี้

 

Edited May 3, 20215 yr by anchadian

22 hours ago, meechai said:

 

Lemme get this straight...Your comparing a 1.3 BILLION India Population with 70 million Thai Population?

 

Secondly take a look at some India FACTS

 

19.5 MILLION Cases

215k deaths??? Where's the beef??

 

"215k deaths??? Where's the beef??"..... 

 

Your opinion would be different if one of those 215k were a family member of yours. So easy to lose a grasp on reality when it's some unknown person who dies.

13 hours ago, Blumpie said:

It's about overwhelming the entire country and health care system.  

....and excess deaths don't do that?

 

It is ALL about deaths.......they are people not statistics 

13 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Last week, new infections hit 2800. Now, infections are much lower. That’s the textbook definition of hitting a peak and then declining.

 

As for deaths lagging new infections by up to 21 days, that’s textbook.

 

You may not like my facts, but you don’t get your own.

To be fair, last week, new reported infections hit 2800. Now, reported infections are much lower.

 

If reported infections = true infections (something we do not know), then a near-term peak was reached.

 

Unfortunately, trying to call a peak infection rate is a bit like trying to call the bottom of a stock market.  You will only really know for sure when this has occured quite a while after it has happened.