THA: 80% of hotels shut till October - won't be back to normal until 2023

[Captain Monday]

What is going to change in 2023? The virus is never going away.

 

I am now convinced the pandemic is a matter of perception.

Maldives, Iceland, others soon Europe. Vaccinated tourist welcome, no big problems.

 

As long as Thai authorities panic over a few serious cases/deaths and fall back on ridiculous restrictions home drinking bans and other psuedoscientifics, nothing will change. It is a disease that must be "managed".

 

Know it is not a perfect example but look, 5000 plus people have died on the roads this year.It is accepted as a reality, fact of life. Something could be done about it but never has even been attempted. Why is that? 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Captain Monday

[Poet]

12 hours ago, Brunolem said:

You comment before you read, which is never a good idea.

 

I didn't write that Covid is a conspiracy.

 

I wrote that, when you put together Covid + climate change + Great Reset restrictions and objectives, you get a bleak picture for mass tourism...and many other things.

No, I read your posts with respect and agree with much of what you say but, you have to admit, the suggestion that the pandemic will be leveraged to ram through oppressive climate change restrictions and taxation is part of the current conspiracy narrative, especially the suggestion that there is a specific, coordinated plan titled "The Great Reset".
 

12 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Now, we have been living in the so-called "new normal" for over a year, and there are those who still cling to the idea that a return to the "old normal" is just a few shots away, and those who think that the "new normal" is here to stay, and evolve.

From the start of the pandemic, the reactions on ThaiVisa have been interesting. There was thread in March 2019 in which a member sought advice on his plan to buy a small hotel in Pattaya at pretty much full price. His presumption was that Covid would be a minor blip and that his hotel would soon be generating full revenue again. Most of the commenters bought the official line in the West that the lockdowns would be just be "two weeks to flatten the curve", whereas about a third of us actually thought about it and realized that international tourism was finished until there was some sort of solution. So, at that time, as I suggested that he run at high speed in the opposite direction, I would have been considered to be on the pessimistic side.

Then the vaccines emerged and their efficacy was extraordinarily good. It was clear by November that this was the solution, we just had to wait for manufacturing to ramp up and, then, for the tourist-providing countries to achieve a high enough level of innoculation that their infection levels would plummet.

We even got a major boost in February this year when an Israeli study proved that a vaccinated person, apart from the main advantage of eliminating the chance of hospitalization and death, also had a much reducing chance of getting infection and, if they did, were 66% less infectious than an unvaccinated person. Israel, with its now "zero-covid" levels of infection, provides a clear example of the effect that mass vaccination will have on all the other advanced countries as, over the next few months, their populations achieve the same levels of innoculation.

So, here we have a solid solution, just what we were waiting for and, yet, now, the majority of commenters here seem to have become pessimists, are entirely discounting it, and are predicting that mass tourism won't emerge again until the mid-twenties.

The problem here may be brain plasticity. As the pandemic emerged, most people were slow to absorb the implications. Now that they have, they are unable to recognize that, logically, this thing is almost over. Sure, the virus will still be around, and some countries are trailing behind in vaccinating their most vulnerable, but we are clearly in the home stretch now.

All the "new normal" means is that people, everywhere, will be more on edge about physical proximity, and some idiots will continue wearing masks as a form of virtue signalling. SARS-CoV-2 will be reduced to a low-level, background endemic factor with seasonal spikes but, due to continued mass vaccination, no more lethality than the flu.

In terms of preventing mass tourism from Western countries, the pandemic is over by this summer.

 

[mlmcleod]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

Her assessment was that things would only return to normal in 2023. 

 

I guess she has inside information about how long it is going to take to get vaccines to Thailand!

[BritManToo]

9 minutes ago, Poet said:

Now that they have, they are unable to recognize that, logically, this thing is almost over. Sure, the virus will still be around, and some countries are trailing behind in vaccinating their most vulnerable, but we are clearly in the home stretch now.

I don't think it's anywhere near over.

[Poet]

11 hours ago, scotsdude said:

Nonsense!! Pattaya for example was dying a death even before this pandemic started.... 

Pattaya is not Thailand.

Ultimately, the bar scene was always going to be disintermediated by the dating apps and, even, messaging apps. By 2015, most to the tourists  were coming from China and they have very little interest in Pattaya, not unless you stick a casino in it.

Up in Chiang Mai, I could barely drive around the moat without hitting a Chinese. I was amazed to discover that I could hire hotel room on Nimman, fire up the Chinese messaging app WeChat and, within 30 minutes, a Chinese tourist would be removing her ridiculous hat and dress to have wordless sex with me.

Now, I am not a young guy, but why would any young guy or extremely attractive older guy bother with Pattaya?

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

17 hours ago, Poet said:

I do not understand this thinking.

Say we accept the premise that, as the vaccination schemes continue in most Western countries, they are heading towards what Israel has already achieved: 10 new infections per million per day, which meets the "zero-covid" standard set by countries such as Singapore and South Korea.

We also know that the vaccines also reduce transmissability by 66%, so, a planeful of tourists flying in from a zero-covid country poses almost no biological risk to the Thai population, certainly far less than the uncontrolled flow of migrants over land borders from neighbouring countries.

We also know that most countries will be rolling out their "digital covid certification" and online verification portals during June.

Given that an exotic vacation is one of the first things that fully-innoculated citizens of those Western countries will want, and given that they have spent a year saving and paying off their credit card debt, and given that the airlines are eagerly waiting to take their expensive planes out of storage and start flying again ...

... given all that, why, exactly, would millions of tourists not want to start flying into Thailand again, and why would Thailand not want these perfectly safe visitors come and save all these hotels on the verge of bankruptcy.

I am not saying that they will get back up to their peak numbers this year but this coming high season could easily be busier than 2019.

 

I agree with most of your premise (also need to throw in millions of Chinese, Thailand's biggest market) but not your timeline. Once the world, not just Western nations, are back to normal I see no inherent reason tourism wouldn't reach and surpass its previous highs but I think this may take up to a decade. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Pattaya Spotter

[Poet]

Just now, BritManToo said:

I don't think it's anywhere near over.

Okay, so, today, beginning of May, Israelis have access to many countries that require quarantine for everyone else. This is either a recognition of the success of their vaccination programme in reducing the levels of infection in their country to near zero, or it is something to do with the Rothschilds.

The UK and US are only about two months behind Israel. The EU is only six months behind the UK.

I am not saying that SARS-CoV-2 is going to disappear, I think it will be with us forever now, but within the narrow scope of making mass international tourism practical again, we are there by July.

 

[Poet]

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Once the world, not just Western nations, are back to normal I see no inherent reason tourism wouldn't reach and surpass its previous highs but I think this may take up to a decade. 

Why?

Bear in mind that most tourism was coming from the countries that are currenty making good progress in vaccinating their populations. The number of Somalis coming to Phuket for a two-week sun n' blowjobs vacation was relatively low.

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

17 hours ago, WineOh said:

because there are cheaper places to visit than Thailand.

There were cheaper places to visit in 2019...yet 39M tourists came.

[BritManToo]

Just now, Pattaya Spotter said:

There were cheaper places to visit in 2019...yet 39M tourists came.

Not me, I visited the 'cheaper places' 4x in 2019.

[Excel]

1 minute ago, Poet said:

Why?

Bear in mind that most tourism was coming from the countries that are currenty making good progress in vaccinating their populations. The number of Somalis coming to Phuket for a two-week sun n' blowjobs vacation was relatively low.

 

I'll take that statement was based on your experience ? ????????  Mind you I heard that Phuket was popular with Mongolian lesbians though.

[Poet]

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

There were cheaper places to visit in 2019...yet 39M tourists came.

If cost were the only factor, we would all catch a Megabus to Wales and erect a tent outside the Llandeilo Aldi.

[Poet]

1 minute ago, Excel said:

Mind you I heard that Phuket was popular with Mongolian lesbians though.

My advice is to always avoid eye-contact with Mongolian lesbians. You do not want to risk any sort of interaction with a woke descendent of Genghis Khan.

 

[Pattaya Spotter]

11 minutes ago, Poet said:

Why?

Bear in mind that most tourism was coming from the countries that are currenty making good progress in vaccinating their populations. The number of Somalis coming to Phuket for a two-week sun n' blowjobs vacation was relatively low.

 

Not many Somalis sure but millions of Chinese and Indians...it all hinges on getting the virus under control. And yes, Western nations are doing well but that's 15% of so of the world's population. Plus nows there's variants and stuff so who knows what's happening going forward. Most of the decade is for getting the virus completely under control. Then there is the issue of how many people are even gonna want to jet off to a far-away exotic location for their vacations...many have discovered during the pandemic that their own countries have a lot to see as well (and you don't have to be stuffed into a metal tube with hundreds of other people for 10-20 hours to see it.

 

Thai tourism will eventually come back I agree, but I'll say a 5-10 year time-frame. 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Pattaya Spotter

[Poet]

9 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I'm not suggesting anything beyond more Europe/UK wide lockdowns seem likely in the near future.

I find the enthusiasm democratically elected western governments display for locking up their own citizens and removing their freedoms is surprising.

Agreed. It has been astonishing and disappointing. I suppose I should have realized this was coming when the Millenials declared that freedom of speech was racist and that university students needed "safe spaces" to avoid exposure to challenging ideas.
 
 

[Pattaya Spotter]

6 minutes ago, Poet said:

If cost were the only factor, we would all catch a Megabus to Wales and erect a tent outside the Llandeilo Aldi.

I hear Mogadishu has some great hotel bargains. 

[Poet]

1 minute ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I hear Mogadishu has some great hotel bargains. 

Right. The local girls are real goers, wild energy, they make the absolute most of their time with you before their inevitable honor killing.

[Poet]

6 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Then there is the issue of how many people are even gonna want to jet off to a far-away exotic location for their vacations...many have discovered during the pandemic that their own countries have a lot to see as well

They have had well over a year to discover, delight in, and become utterly bored by their own countries.

 

6 minutes ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

Thai tourism will eventually come back I agree, but I'll say 5-10 time-frame. 

5-10 days, weeks, or months?
 

[cyril sneer]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

I don't think it's anywhere near over.

and even if it was, who knows when the next virus comes and it all starts again..

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, Poet said:

No, I read your posts with respect and agree with much of what you say but, you have to admit, the suggestion that the pandemic will be leveraged to ram through oppressive climate change restrictions and taxation is part of the current conspiracy narrative, especially the suggestion that there is a specific, coordinated plan titled "The Great Reset".
 

Actually, Klaus Schwab, the WEF founder and CEO, wrote a book about the Great Reset, which is his brain child.

 

The very title of this year WEF (virtual) forum in Davos was "The Great Reset", and Schwab has made numerous comments on how the actual crisis should be used to advance the Great Reset agenda:

 

"The pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world" - Professor Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman, World Economic Forum.

 

The so-called fight against climate change also has a very real agenda, with massive reductions of emissions pledged by Western countries, many of those with a deadline in...2030!

 

Such reductions won't happen if the populations are travelling all over the world, unrestricted.

 

Where the Covid comes into play is that it has put the populations in the right place to implement unpopular reforms, now that the governments have seen how far they can push without soliciting any significant reaction from the populace.

 

As I wrote before, the Covid was only a catalyst.

 

If it hadn't happened, something else would have.

 

I am part of this (not so small) group of people who have thought for a long time (since the 2008 financial crisis) that the 2020s would be terrible, because everything was converging in that direction.

 

I even wrote it in 2012 when some people asked me is this was going to be a terrible year (the infamous Inca calendar), and I told them "don't worry, but get ready for the 2020s".

 

And here we are...

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Brunolem

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, Poet said:

 

 Israel, with its now "zero-covid" levels of infection, provides a clear example of the effect that mass vaccination will have on all the other advanced countries as, over the next few months, their populations achieve the same levels of innoculation.
 

"Netanyahu says Israelis need to anticipate another shot for themselves, and their children (after the first 2 Pfizer doses) in 6 months.  Two month ago, Netanyahu was looking to buy 36 million more doses, 3 times what had already been purchased."

[NoshowJones]

22 hours ago, Johnny Mac said:

 

Made up nonsense. It wasn't like that at all.

1.5 years ago, that's 18 months. At that time there was very little western tourists to be seen about the main parts of Bangkok, the unelected "PM" and his soldiers made it harder for tourists and longstayers, especially the under fifties, and expats, with their ridiculous immigration issues, and that was before the Chinese virus struck.

[Johnny Mac]

10 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

1.5 years ago, that's 18 months. At that time there was very little western tourists to be seen about the main parts of Bangkok, the unelected "PM" and his soldiers made it harder for tourists and longstayers, especially the under fifties, and expats, with their ridiculous immigration issues, and that was before the Chinese virus struck.

 

Yep. It's funny how people want to re-invent history. Way before Covid this forum was full of threads reading 'Pattaya is dead' 'Chiang Mai is dead' etc, etc..

[KC 71]

22 hours ago, Brunolem said:

Israel is an outlier rather than a reference.

 

It is very unlikely that the vast majority of countries will repeat Israel's performance.

 

On top of that, remember that, according to the vaccine manufacturers themselves, the vaccines are efficient for only 6 months, meaning that the whole vaccination campaign will have to be repeated indefinitely.

 

Then, there are other issues beside the Covid pandemic, such as fighting climate change and the implementation of the infamous Great Reset, both of which are not in favour of mass tourism.

 

Instead of a return to the happy days of 2019, one should rather expect a lengthy march toward 1984 (not the year, if you see what I mean).

 

 

You're Not Wrong Brunolem ????

[KC 71]

19 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Maybe they could be converted to pandemic themed condos?

 

Suggested names

 

El Moderno

 

Pfizer Palace

 

Sinovactown

 

Sputumnik Heights

 

Covid  Terraces

Or "The More Pricks Than A Dartboard ~ Mansions" ????

????

[zhounan]

Governments are betting everything on vaccines, forgetting and censoring everything else.

 

It is a choice we will regret for decades (unless it is a deliberate strategy, and it cannot be ruled out).

[scotsdude]

On 5/4/2021 at 11:22 PM, Poet said:

Pattaya is not Thailand.

Ultimately, the bar scene was always going to be disintermediated by the dating apps and, even, messaging apps. By 2015, most to the tourists  were coming from China and they have very little interest in Pattaya, not unless you stick a casino in it.

Up in Chiang Mai, I could barely drive around the moat without hitting a Chinese. I was amazed to discover that I could hire hotel room on Nimman, fire up the Chinese messaging app WeChat and, within 30 minutes, a Chinese tourist would be removing her ridiculous hat and dress to have wordless sex with me.

Now, I am not a young guy, but why would any young guy or extremely attractive older guy bother with Pattaya?

 

Chiang Mai is not Thailand.

 

Why would anyone bother visiting Chiang Mai?

[cclub75]

On 5/5/2021 at 6:06 AM, Poet said:

In terms of preventing mass tourism from Western countries, the pandemic is over by this summer.

 

It's rather ironic. You have perfectly described the mechanism at work at the beginning (people were thinking "in 2 weeks it will be over").

 

But at the end... you end up turning 360 ° on yourself ! ????

 

More seriously, you missed one important point.

 

There will always be a new "Variant of Concern"... A new outbreak. The CDC has even created the expression "Variant of High Consequence" !

 

Source : https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/variant-info.html

 

Vaccines will be constantly updated...

 

Any government will at any time impose new restrictions... "For the sake of our citizens health".

 

Before to be a pandemic... Covid is essentially political.

 

It is an extraordinary tool to shape societies, to manage populations.

 

Why on earth, leaders, politicans and profiteers will relinquish such a tool... just to please tourists ?

 

UPDATE

What a coincidence ! The "indian strain" is about to be declared in the UK "Variant of concern"... Voilà.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9551883/Covid-strain-India-likely-variant-concern.html

Edited May 7, 2021 by cclub75

[Kiujunn]

On 5/4/2021 at 7:17 PM, TaoNow said:

re-surfacing

Thailand's bad reputation is very sticky. 

It doesn't just disappear in a year or two.

In Europe, it will take decades to get rid of it, even it is outdated already.

In China, Thailand never had this reputation.