SURVEY: Re-opening Thailand by October -- Realistic or Not?

[DefaultName]

One thing that they keep missing in their timescales is that most foreign tourists have to book many months in advance.  If in (say) August a potential tourist wants to come in October, most won't be able to.  Booking; time off work, flights, hotels, etc. plus, any family and home care arrangements don't happen overnight.

 

As a tourist and a single man, I did manage to come at 3 weeks' notice once, but normally I started making plans 6 or more months in advance.  I doubt if I'm alone in this.

 

Of course, I'm talking mainly about western tourists, those from closer countries will likely be a different story.

[Ventenio]

Oh wait, I must change my vote!!!!   

 

I assumed you meant October, 2087.    

 

You mean this year?  like, THIS year???  2021?????   

 

Like in about three months?????  Three hundred years is possible.  lol

[welshguy]

As has been mentioned, with the way they keep moving the goal posts, I would be amazed, if any "real" number of tourists will come back in November.

 

They keep changing the goalposts/people have to book and plan their hols. weeks or months/book time of work etc. in advance blah blah blah.

 

All of this, plus of course, by then Thailand could well be red, amber green god knows what colour country! So many countries governments probably wont even "allow" their citizens to fly there!?

 

I cant wait to go back, I'm retired, so am looking to go for a fair few months...Saying that, there is no way, I will be going back with all the restrictions they are imposing..

 

I assume, I'm in a tiny minority of people  (being retired etc, and "could feasibly"!  go back there at the drop of a hat!)   The vast vast majority however, of tourists that Thailand is aching for, need to book time of work plan etc etc. their holidays.

 

I wont be booking anything  until restrictions etc ae lifted, ...as I say, by then Thailand could well be a red country   so foreign government, probably wont even allow travel there. unless its essential travel.  Me wanting to escape the U.K. winter a, and getting some Thai sun and tom yoong goong is hardly essential travel I guess!

 

God knows what will happen to the tourist industry in Thailand.....looking worse and worse with each passing day though.

 

Some tourists do of course, want to get back out there, problem is, the rules/restrictions/quarantine etc. etc. will I imagine, put the majority of them off ...Surely they will find other places to visit?!

 

Apparently T.A.T. doesn't seem to think so!

Edited June 20, 2021 by welshguy
spelling

[kynikoi]

Where's the option

 

Open with one jab

 

Mutant variant ensues. World blames Thailand for mutant strain known as thaiflu. Thais disallowed travel outside borders. World heaps scorn on Thailand for being kiineeow.

 

No government official can go to Switzerland to visit their money.

Edited June 20, 2021 by kynikoi

[drenddy]

YES.YES.YES.

 

October 2045.

[djayz]

What choice do they have? Too many people here rely purely on  tourism as their (only) source of income. Without it, the vast majority of them have no other skills, very little, if any, savings and mouths to feed. There must be so many people here really feeling the pinch. I honestly don't know how they are surviving. It's a risk opening the gates but can't help but feel that a nation of hungry, disillusioned and neglected people might be considered an even bigger risk. 

[rudi49jr]

3 hours ago, possum1931 said:

Send for the men in white coats. ???? ???? ???? ????

You mean for me or the dear leader? 

[Kadilo]

9 hours ago, pegman said:

I think it will get worse before it gets better. Just look what's taking place in the U.K. Here in Canada we have vaccinated a higher percentage of people than anywhere except small population Malta but our ICU beds are full. 

Yes what is happening in the UK. 
Delta variant is prominent, infection rates are slightly up, deaths are

low and most of those are the ones who declined the vaccine. 

Nothing to scare anyone about. 

The vaccine is breaking the Delta link as it did the previous ones and the efficacy is high. 
 

The increase in hospitalisation is mainly young people who have not yet had the jab which is now open to all adults. 

The UK is opening fully in July thanks to the vaccine rollout success, that’s what’s happening. 

 

[3NUMBAS]

50% still get delta even with 2 jabs of good vacine not ropey vacine (in uk)

[3NUMBAS]

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-coronavirus-variant-strongest-threat-vaccinated-people-2021-6?r=US&IR=T

 

The Delta variant might pose the biggest threat yet to vaccinated people

Right now, two doses of vaccine are at least greater than 88% effective at preventing serious cases of COVID-19, of the type that might put you in hospital, even from the Delta variant. However, a single shot is only about 33% effective in protecting patients from that level of harm, according to studies of Delta variant.

"The data today says that this variant gets a full checked box for more infectious, probably gets a checked box for more serious, and at least gets a partial checked box for immune evasion. And that's scary," Wachter said.

Edited June 20, 2021 by 3NUMBAS

[Kadilo]

37 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

50% still get delta even with 2 jabs of good vacine not ropey vacine (in uk)

…….and 92% effective against hospitalisation and zero deaths with two jabs of AZ.

 

If you’re trying to grab headlines least tell the whole story. 

 

 

[Kadilo]

I think realistically Thailand could open up in October but more likely December/Jan. 

 

I can see them doing a face saving extension (as did Johnson) and using the “let’s get extra insurance and vaccinate a few more” excuse. 

 

Either way it’s time to open up and give the Thais their lives back. The risk vs benefit has swing greatly in favour of the vast majority of Thais now needing to earn a living and support their families. 
 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Won't matter much to the economy if they do open up, mass tourism is gone for the foreseeable. The global economy will be taking a hit also. 

 

I expect to see civil unrest on a greater scale than the protests last year at some stage in the near future, as dissatisfaction with this current mob of thieves mounts, and as more and more people suffer economic hardship it will spill over out on the streets.

 

I can't recall a more detested regime in my 31 years here, and I remember the unpopular Suchinda and Chuan Leepai governments!

[Mr Meeseeks]

43 minutes ago, Kadilo said:

I think realistically Thailand could open up in October but more likely December/Jan. 

 

I can see them doing a face saving extension (as did Johnson) and using the “let’s get extra insurance and vaccinate a few more” excuse. 

 

Either way it’s time to open up and give the Thais their lives back. The risk vs benefit has swing greatly in favour of the vast majority of Thais now needing to earn a living and support their families. 

It's time to open up when enough people in Thailand are vaccinated, not before.

[Tanoshi]

To open up they need to vaccinate the majority of the population.

The Thai Health system can't deal with mass hospitalisation from the virus.

The much anticipated roll out of the vaccination program to the general masses from June 7th lasted exactly one week before they ran out of vaccines.

To date still waiting for further supplies.

 

If they do open in 120 days it will be one quick step forward, before staggering back two.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Tanoshi

[Kadilo]

14 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

It's time to open up when enough people in Thailand are vaccinated, not before.

Yes hence why I said end of the year more likely or before if they get their finger out. 

Edited June 20, 2021 by Kadilo

[BusyB]

1 hour ago, Kadilo said:

I think realistically Thailand could open up in October but more likely December/Jan. 

 

I can see them doing a face saving extension (as did Johnson) and using the “let’s get extra insurance and vaccinate a few more” excuse. 

 

Either way it’s time to open up and give the Thais their lives back. The risk vs benefit has swing greatly in favour of the vast majority of Thais now needing to earn a living and support their families. 
 

 

Yeah that's roughly what I hope it's shaping up to be.

 

[wensiensheng]

9 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I agree. At some point Thailand's reliance on tourism and tourism employment will force their hand to desperation. You cannot lose 20% or your GDP and connected tax collection for much longer - especially with borrowing hugely and basing repayments on opening the economy quickly.

 

Thailand always reports a ficticious 1-2% unemployment. That number is simply not feasible with a reported 6 million jobs lost. Has to be now a minimum of 10% easy. Indeed the only thing really keeping Thailand afloat is NOT paying a decent unemployment payment !

 

My thoughts on opening are.

1. They will try with phuket - wont work, tourists enough to boost economy wont come due to hoops.

2. They will rejig it for October- but tourists enough to boost economy wont come due to still too many hoops.

3. They will try again in December - with half the hoops - but not enough will come.

4. They'll reduce hoops again January - same result.

5. As they reach 2 years of tourism devastation, their hands will be forced to open fully without hoops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t disagree, but when does their Covid situation get them put on red no fly lists? At that point hoops or no hoops, they’re sunk.

[wensiensheng]

25 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

It's time to open up when enough people in Thailand are vaccinated, not before.

Data based decision. I like it!

[pookondee]

9 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

I agree. At some point Thailand's reliance on tourism and tourism employment will force their hand to desperation. You cannot lose 20% or your GDP and connected tax collection for much longer - especially with borrowing hugely and basing repayments on opening the economy quickly.

 

Thailand always reports a ficticious 1-2% unemployment. That number is simply not feasible with a reported 6 million jobs lost. Has to be now a minimum of 10% easy. Indeed the only thing really keeping Thailand afloat is NOT paying a decent unemployment payment !

 

My thoughts on opening are.

1. They will try with phuket - wont work, tourists enough to boost economy wont come due to hoops.

2. They will rejig it for October- but tourists enough to boost economy wont come due to still too many hoops.

3. They will try again in December - with half the hoops - but not enough will come.

4. They'll reduce hoops again January - same result.

5. As they reach 2 years of tourism devastation, their hands will be forced to open fully without hoops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And to think,

 it was only 2 short years ago they were denying folks entry at airports,

Thai Immigration officers saying

"You stay Thailand to long"

[FarangryBirds]

Prayut posted on Facebook earlier that the goal for reopening was to have over 50 million people receiving their first shot by October. That would probably mean doing over 450,000 jabs every day for the next 115 or so days. They usually start the week doing 350-400,000 on Monday but it drops off to appx. 100,000 at weekends. On that basis, they will fall some way short of 50 million. Comments were disabled on his Facebook post, I can't think why???  ????

[NoshowJones]

3 hours ago, rudi49jr said:

You mean for me or the dear leader? 

For you of course, but only if you are serious. As for the "dear leader", he is just a soldier trying to be a politician and not doing too well, apart from the lies that is.

[starky]

11 hours ago, Joe Farang said:

The conditions attached in the 2nd url above are a blocker for me.

I will wait until I can travel without PCR tests and additional Insurance.

Not being limited to an area or hotel for any time.

Full vaccination is the only condition I will want to meet before travelling.

See ya in about 5 to 10 years then

[RichardColeman]

52 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

It's time to open up when enough people in Thailand are vaccinated, not before.

Against which variant ? All ? Ever ? They may as well give up now and build a 60ft wall around the country,

 

Are you suggesting starting the vaccine program all over again and stopping opening up for every variant ? World's gone nuts.

 

In the uk Covid in May was the 24th biggest killer of the month. 24th ! 

 

Vaccinate to the end of the year and open the planet Jan 1. Any more and we may as well give up and re-cycle all  the planes. The covid war is now half as long as WW1

[RichardColeman]

8 minutes ago, FarangryBirds said:

Prayut posted on Facebook earlier that the goal for reopening was to have over 50 million people receiving their first shot by October.

If they use the chinese 3% efficacy first dose gunk, may as well open now - it will be the same risk

[starky]

2 hours ago, 3NUMBAS said:

50% still get delta even with 2 jabs of good vacine not ropey vacine (in uk)

Yes because vaccines don't stop you getting it......why don't people understand this?

[Saraburi121]

Dusted off the magic 8 ball and asked a yes or no question:  Re-opening Thailand by October realistic or not?

 

Answer: Don't count on it. 

 

The magic 8 ball is just as, if not more, reliable than press releases.

 

 

[MRToMRT]

15 hours ago, davidcraig said:

I predict that every Indian s*x tourist coming to Thailand will have proof of double vaccination and of negative Xi Pingpong WuFlu tests. I also predict that most of these proofs will be fakes, supplied by corrupt Indian doctors. So, as soon as they do open the country in October, which I believe will happen to rescue the hotels, there will be a massive increase in the Indian variant and loads of people will die.

You raise an interesting point, ALL sex tourism must be one of the most easiest ways for the virus to spread from close bodily contact and heightened breathing.

[MRToMRT]

Question, if they open in October and the 3rd wave increases or the 4th wave starts. Whats the betting, even though we know the current situation is much worse in numbers, or lack of,  terms that the current testing numbers indicate. That the blame, not only by the government, but by the media and the populace as well will be laid squarely on "them foreigners". 

[Denim]

Since this nightmare began the virus has mutated to more dangerous variants.

 

Without knowing if its done mutating , predictions about the future only take into account what we know so far , not what might be lurking in ambush down the road.