KKP Research, of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank, has predicted that the latest COVID-19 outbreak will be longer than expected, due to the Delta variant, the slow imposition of lockdown measures and slow roll out of mass vaccinations, and that semi-lockdown measures will have to be in place for at least three months to ease the situation. 

 

If the restrictive measures are kept in place for three months, this year’s GDP growth will drop to 0.5%, from the initial forecast of 1.5%. Although exports are improving, it is not enough to cushion the overall effects on this year’s economy and it is not expected that the economy will return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023.

 

If there is a prolonged partial lockdown, the manufacturing and export sectors, which are the only hope for the country’s economy, will also be affected, according to the thinktank.

 

Full Story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/3-months-of-semi-lockdown-required-to-bring-pandemic-under-control-kkp-research/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2021-07-22

 

- Whatever you're going through, the Samaritans are here for you

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

Some realism at last. KK and Phatra are well-respected.

That's probably what they'll gona go for, semi-lockdown with multiple sandboxes. An experiment bound to fail. 

But there is only 98 days left until the hoards arrive ????

They call this a semi lockdown. It's about as near to a total lockdwn as you can get. Just to let you know I'm in Pattaya.

34 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

If there is a prolonged partial lockdown, the manufacturing and export sectors, which are the only hope for the country’s economy, will also be affected, according to the thinktank.

Let your currency float and get value something like 1$ is 45 bth then your export industry go up like rocket. Also you maybe get tourist in country some day in future!

Define semi lockdown, cant even go on the beach and run now

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

If the restrictive measures are kept in place for three months, this year’s GDP growth will drop to 0.5%, from the initial forecast of 1.5%.

You would think there would be negative growth.   Jan and Feb 2020 were decent months.

11 minutes ago, shortstop2 said:

You would think there would be negative growth.   Jan and Feb 2020 were decent months.

And yet the baht hardly moves.

It is a mystery for sure.

Three more months of this extending to more provinces and Thailand will breakdown and come apart at the seams.

This is fantastic news. Best I've heard I'm ages. Well done to all involved.

 

Sincerely 

 

MORRIS 

Ex F1 Test Driver, 1978

One of the main things to bring the pandemic under control,, is NOT a 3 Month lockdown,, but a mass vaccination program, of which this doesn't understand... 

As someone stuck outside of Thailand for 16 months away from the family, I would support this, even though it would mean more time away.

 

BUT.

 

The issue is unless their vaccine program is completely finished by 3 months - and a non  chinese vaccine used -  then it will just explode again on opening and my time away extended further.

 

Tell me I could plan to start coming back without hoops in exactly 6 months and I'd be not exactly happy, but OK.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is probably right. 3 months to slow down the spread of the delta variant, giving more time to vaccinate as many people as possible, might just pull Thailand through to the other side, but vaccination efforts must expand and run 7 days per week not 5 days then 2 pointless days at the weekend

8 hours ago, roger101 said:

They call this a semi lockdown. It's about as near to a total lockdwn as you can get. Just to let you know I'm in Pattaya.

Yep...it's the same in the deep red zones as the complete months long lockdown of April-June last year. Large parts of the country are right back to square one.

Off topic posts, troll posts and the replies have been removed. 

Without decent vaccines it’s lockdowns.

Keys words in article - delta variant, lockdown, slow vaccine rollout.  The three magic words that every potential tourist wants to hear. Bye bye high season and hello low, low season. The result of the vaccine rollout fiasco. It's only been 2 days of the so-called semi lockdown in Pattaya and has already presented some challenges in my relatively easy retiree lifestyle. 

9 hours ago, shortstop2 said:

You would think there would be negative growth.   Jan and Feb 2020 were decent months.

The factories are still churning it out.... I chat to the Mrs and ask after family members, Niece still gets picked up daily to be taken to the Korat factory...brother still in manufacturing. Although I hear one relative has had his hours reduced, 3 day week, no overtime for ages.... another there was a Covid detection and he cannot work for 14 days......  the factory is still open but some lines are shut down. 

This is why it is a partial lockdown and will take time to work. 

3 months of semi-lockdown required to bring pandemic under control destroy the livelihoods of any remaining independant businesses that still remain open in order to control a disease with a more than 99% survival rate ????

 

10 hours ago, roger101 said:

They call this a semi lockdown. It's about as near to a total lockdwn as you can get. Just to let you know I'm in Pattaya.

I agree roger, this to me is a full lockdown already in Pattaya unless they close the gas stations then nobody can get about, 

5 hours ago, KhunMorris said:

This is fantastic news. Best I've heard I'm ages. Well done to all involved.

 

Sincerely 

 

MORRIS 

Ex F1 Test Driver, 1978

In other words it looks like they're waiting for the natural cycle to finish of it's own accord.If they say 3 months just double then add half to get the real answer.

10 minutes ago, phukettrader said:

a disease with a more than 99% survival rate 

False information.... 

I think KKP research should be locked in their office for 3 months and have their electric and internet connection cut

6 hours ago, John Drake said:

Three more months of this extending to more provinces and Thailand will breakdown and come apart at the seams.

Hoping so. Comuppence long overdue. 

6 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

False information.... 

Really? According to the governments figures yesterday, cases = 453,132, deaths = 3,697 = 0.816% of cases

10 hours ago, roger101 said:

They call this a semi lockdown. It's about as near to a total lockdwn as you can get. Just to let you know I'm in Pattaya.

They don't want full lockdowns because than they will have to give us bread and water.

So vaccines will solve the problem? Like in the west?  OK. 

7 minutes ago, phukettrader said:

Really? According to the governments figures yesterday, cases = 453,132, deaths = 3,697 = 0.816% of cases

Yes really.....worldwide it is =2.1% of cases. Bigger sample.....

Death is not the only poor outcome by the way. 

Until you have a real vaccination plan, with at least 100 mm doses of a real vaccine IN HAND, defining any lockdown period is folly.

 

 

The semi- quasi- mini- half-vaxxed lockdown will last until real vaccines are administered at the rate of 750,000 per day (min).

 

Until then it will be an endless series of wave, lockdown, opening, wave, lockdown, opening.  Way past the definition of "insanity".