HOT HOT HOT: Court Ruling Speculation Thread

[george]

Speculation thread:

The court ruling is expected at 1.30pm today.

Which of the below listed scenarios do you think will happen today?

[This poll will close at 1.30pm]

In the dock: Seven possible scenarios

As the clock ticks down to the May 30 'Judgement Day', the rival Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties can only wait and hope as the Constitutional Tribunal nears its decision on thier possible dissolution because of alleged electoral fraud in the April 2, 2006 election.

The Nation's Political Desk explores the scenarios and analyses the political implications of the Constitution Tribunal's possible rulings.

Scenario 1:

Both parties are dissolved. All party executives get a five year ban.

Although such a verdict would expel a number of unpopular and nasty politicians, it could have the worst prospects for the country.

The heavyweights and influential figures who have dominated Thai politics for decades would be kicked out for five years. All 118 TRT executives and another 49 from the Democrats would be barred from assuming political posts - MPs, senators and ministers included.

The list of "possible victims" includes Thaksin Shinawatra, Abhisit Vejjajiva, Apirak Kosayodhin, Somsak Thepsuthin, Somkid Chatusripitak, Suthep Thaugsuban, Newin Chidchob and Sudarat Keyuraphan.

Somsak's plan to found a new party led by his ally Somkid would be sunk.

In the meantime, it could revive veteran politicians like Chuan Leekpai, Banharn Silapa-archa and General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh for a comeback to rule the country.

The dissolution of both parties would give legitimacy to the junta's belief that key politicians were dishonest and had caused trouble.

Thus, military intervention to save the country from an ongoing crisis would be more legitimate and unavoidable.

Moreover, such a verdict would close the door on attempts to wreak revenge on the coup makers.

For, while they wanted a "safe landing" by joining a party with political heavyweights to win the next poll, and form a coalition government, it is very risky for them to trust former allies of Thaksin. Such people could switch sides if the balance of power shifted in favour of the former premier.

But without the two main parties, democracy may be fragile if the public feels the country is starting to become a military state.

The Army would turn into the most powerful interest group and the system of checks and balances may erode under those circumstances.

As a result, anti-junta and pro-Thaksin groups may gain momentum to overturn military rule.

TRT may mobilise their supporters to rally against an "unfair" ruling. And the Democrats and democratic activists could even join TRT protests if dark clouds loomed over their future.

Scenario 2:

Only Thai Rak Thai is disbanded, along with a five year ban on its executives. The Democrats escape punishment.

This verdict could cause unrest by Thai Rak Thai supฌporters.

A TRT executive was recently accused of leaking "possibly true" verdicts that both parties would be guilty and disbanded.

The message was intended to warn Thai Rak Thai supporters who still have faith in deposed premier Thaksin that the party would be disbanded regardless of the legal process.

The supposed "leak" was like a bomb thrown at the junta and the Constitution Tribunal.

The underlying message is that a verdict that disbands only Thai Rak Thai would suggest to its supporters and the public that the judges had been swayed to change their mind at the last minute in favour of its oppoฌnents.

Furthermore, a ruling against Thai Rak Thai would suggest the Democrats were allies of the junta, and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) - all Thaksin's bitter enemies.

This verdict could fuel anti-CNS rallies led by People's TV, which have the potential to gain momentum.

The rallies recently turned into a pro-Thaksin event with more supporters taking part every week. Indeed, most PTV executives are former senior TRT members.

If this ruling is made, the door for former TRT heavyweights Somsak and Somkid to form a new party would close as they would be hit with fiveyear bans.

And junta leaders may have to cancel any plan to enter politics democratically if Somsak is forced to take a long break.

Scenario 3:

Only Thai Rak Thai is disbanded. However, its executives escape the five year ban. The Democrat Party is found innocent, and its executives are free to stay in politics.

This outcome would block Thaksin from making a return, as he was party leader during the April 2 poll and would be pressured to take responsibility for the party's guilt.

However, supporters of Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin may stage rallies to call for "justice" for the party and ex-premier.

TRT executives would be free to join hands with junta leaders to form a new party, which would have a strong chance of winning the next election and forming government.

The junta would be able to shift to democratic rule. By being in the next administration, military leaders would be able to protect themselves from any act of revenge by ousted premier Thaksin.

However, the outcome of such a joint force could be like a step back to the bad old days of semi-military regimes. Junta leaders would have to compromise with influential politicians, whom they earlier ousted with charges of corruption.

Such a situation may sway public perception that the September coup was a farce, and that military only intervened to regain power they had lost in recent years.

It would be similar to the coup in 1991, when junta leader General Suchinda Kraprayoon assumed the premiership despite the junta having promised earlier to back an elected prime minister.

If the people feel they have been betrayed, rallies against military rule could grow stronger and this could lead to unrest.

Scenario 4:

Both parties are dissolved. However, all party executives escape a five year ban.

Such a verdict might indicate that the Council for National Security (CNS), as the junta calls itself, plans to form a political party with heavyweights from Thai Rak Thai and possibly other parties.

This ruling would point out that Thai Rak Thai and the Democrats caused a serious crisis by acts linked to the controversial election on April 2, 2006. They were greedy for power so ended up working against the country's best interests.

However, if all executives of both parties were banned for five years, the CNS would find it hard to deliver its plan.

Hence, they should be found innocent while the guilt could be pinned on "individuals", because the parties did not issue any resolutions to undertake illegal acts.

The CNS leaders hope to end their rule as national heroes, who return democracy to the people.

A national poll will surely take place. A party made up of junta leaders and TRT heavyweights - including factions which recently left TRT to form a new political group - could potentially win the next poll and form government.

But the joint force and implications would be similar to Scenario 3, which could end in a people's uprising.

Scenario 5:

Only the Democrat Party is dissolved, and a five year ban imposed on its executives. Thai Rak Thai is acquitted.

and Scenario 6:

Only the Democrat Party is dissolved but its executives escape the ban from politics. Thai Rak Thai is acquitted.

These two scenarios are least likely to happen on May 30. With the junta wanting to ruin Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin, any result that would let them free appears at odds in the current political context.

Scenario 7:

Both parties are found innocent, and their executives escape any punishment.

On the political front, this verdict would possibly lead to reconciliation among groups in the ongoing conflict, at least for the near future.

Supporters of both parties could stay at home.

Political heavyweights would be free to focus on their campaigns for the next poll rather than their survival. The PAD might cry foul over a verdict that lets TRT and Thaksin free. However, it has lost power and the possibility of a new round of protests is unlikely to cause trouฌble.

However, such an outcome may cast doubt on the legal process.

If both parties are not found guilty, the Constitution Tribunal could suddenly be in the hot seat.

The judges would have to explain why they ruled the controversial poll on April 2 last year as "untainted by fraud" - after His Majesty the King calling it the "worst crisis".

The Administrative Court, moreover, suspended by elections in southern constituencies. The Constitution Court soon followed by cancelling the April 2 poll.

Three election commissioners at the time were later sent to jail for their abuse of power in overseeing the April 2 election.

This outcome would lead to controversy if it questioned the legitimacy of the anti-Thaksin protests and Sept 19 coup.

-- The Nation

[cmsally]

I have no idea, but all my Thai friends think 3 or 4 most likely.

[orchis]

I think 4, it 's the most 'face-saving' and 'business-as-usual-will-continue' scenario

[Jai Dee]

I voted for scenario 3 as most likely.

[darkside]

scenario 2 , gets my vote

[Aussietraveller]

I think Scenario 3 or 4.

Well done Goerge in putting the information together so well.

It is a complex situation, and the possible sub plots and agendas are endless.

I hope that whatever the outcome, today is a peaceful day for all.

[Gary A]

I voted for scenario 3 but with just Thaksin being banned.

[mmushr00m]

#4

rocks the boat the least. Both parties get punished but no person is singled out.

Allow party leaders to gracefully say "we accept the decision"

[Tywais]

I voted for 3 as the most likely. A Thai ajarn at the uni asked what I thought and told him (referencing 3) and he feels it will be between 2 and 3 whereas the TRT will be dissolved but only some members will be banned.

[Abrak]

I go with Scenario 3 as being the great Thai compromise. TRT banned so coup looks legitimate. Executives get off so semblance of democracy remains in place.

Should be enough of a compromise to placate ex-TRT execs from disrupting the political process. Leaves room for the military to enter politics through the newly formed ex-TRT ashes.

[PhilHarries]

I go for 4 but it could be either of 3 or 4 as being the best face saving option.

However what about option 8, none of the above? The court has not seen enough evidence to reach a verdict.

[sukanyacondo]

Scenario "8" The totally unexpected and Thai scenario!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thaksin is welcomed home buy s back Telecoms for nominal 1 baht and carries on!!

[sajal]

my vote for 4..

taksin getting banned would make the public pity him

[sriracha john]

I was going to vote for #6 because I was promised a powerful Buddhist talisman for free if I did so in an effort to sway the thaivisa audience.....

but then I decided against it.

[pumpuiman]

I'd say 4. The junta will not relinquish their power, and remain in control.

All scenario's are frightening.

The prospect of a real democracy seems to be a pipe dream.

My guess is military rule and corruption will win, unfortunately.

[calibanjr.]

I'm with the Scenario 4 "face saving" brigade.

[stumonster]

I was going to vote for #6 because I was promised a powerful Buddhist talisman for free if I did so in an effort to sway the thaivisa audience.....

but then I decided against it.

could you be swayed by a large beer chang ?

any TV members in a position to post photo's of the unfolding events , please feel free to do so

[soundman]

Option 4

The current junta is trying to make thailand a 1 party state - like singapore.

Soundman.

[sriracha john]

I was going to vote for #6 because I was promised a powerful Buddhist talisman for free if I did so in an effort to sway the thaivisa audience.....

but then I decided against it.

could you be swayed by a large beer chang ?

nope, not even that....

any TV members in a position to post photo's of the unfolding events , please feel free to do so

ok, but not sure why...

[Jai Dee]

any TV members in a position to post photo's of the unfolding events , please feel free to do so

Good idea.

Keep an eye on this thread Stu... latest press releases and photographs as available.

Contributions from members residing in Bangkok also welcome.

[tijnebijn]

I voted '4'.I thought not many people would vote for this,but after seeing the poll it was on top.

So we all got the same feeling he.......I think 4 will be more likely then 3.

I also must give my compliances to Georgie to take these complicated scenarios together,could not have been done better.

[george]

Please vote now. 30 minutes left, this poll is closing at 1.30pm

[Ping]

#3 - politically expedient, face saving

[Stephen Cleary]

I’ll vote for Scenario Number 8.

There will be a big power-cut, as there often are in Bangkok.

One of the judges gets caught in traffic congestion.

Another judge unfortunately falls down one of the open-manholes at the back of the court.

And the other….well he gets stuck in a queue at 7-11.

All gets post-poned again until next month.

[george]

RESULTS at 13:32

Which is the most likely tribunal scenario today?
Scenario 1 	[ 4 ] 	** [9.30%]
Scenario 2 	[ 8 ] 	** [18.60%]
Scenario 3 	[ 16 ] 	** [37.21%]
Scenario 4 	[ 12 ] 	** [27.91%]
Scenario 5 	[ 0 ] 	** [0.00%]
Scenario 6 	[ 0 ] 	** [0.00%]
Scenario 7 	[ 3 ] 	** [6.98%]

Total Votes: 53

[Aussietraveller]

the judges decision is current being read on Television.

Is it available in English anywhere?

[sriracha john]

Nobody took the free talisman...

[soundman]

Nobody took the free talisman...

Allready got three. They haven't changed my luck. Why would I want another?

Soundman.

[Stephen Cleary]

Live update in English available at:

Tullsathit's Blog

[danone]

your list is incomplete.

NO PARTY WILL BE DISBANDED - this is known since the early morning.

but individual punishments.

therefore scenario 8.