Thai industry group scales down tourism forecast, says 3 million jobs lost

[Scrotobike]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

And 3 million that don't appear on the unemployment figures

No one counts them as most are not entitled to benefits. They just go back to their village. Become "farmers"

[kimamey]

4 hours ago, RotBenz8888 said:

I wonder how many of those are real tourists, not returnees? But of course, they all need hotelrooms... 

At the moment I would think most are returnees. If they are tourists then they will be ones here for maybe a month or more as I can't see anyone doing it for 2 weeks especially when there are other options.

It would be interesting to know how much the average tourist spends during their stay compared to someone who lives here, probably with family for the whole year or at least supporting spending by their family even if they are away for part of that time.

[kimamey]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

And 3 million that don't appear on the unemployment figures

My wife works for the Department of Skill Development and she's often talking about the need to find jobs for those now out of work. Of course they aren't all from the tourism industry. We're in Mahasarakham in Isaan so many are from other affected sectors although there will be a lot that have returned from lost tourist employment.

[BangkokReady]

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Lucky that tourism isn't really that important to Thailand ????.

I've been told a few times that Thailand doesn't need foreigners at all, so I don't know what all the fuss is about.

[DaveSamutP]

6 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

And 3 million that don't appear on the unemployment figures

And, that is the perfect evidence that their employment/unemployment figures are absolutely fabricated. 

 

As are most other figures in the Kingdom. 

 

Some brave journo should ask a government minister to explain the discrepancy 

 

[DaveSamutP]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

And likely 80% were returning expats. This entire thing is one huge lie. Tourism here is likely  finished. Infinite sabotage causes untold destruction of a "far less than resilient" industry. 

 

Prayuth, Anutin and Phiphat could go down in Thai history as the guys who cost Thailand a trillion dollars ilor more, in lost income, destroyed a once vital industry, decimated an economy, and caused Thailand to slip to 90th in the world GDP rankings, with long term unemployment and the withdrawal of foreign interest and investments.

 

Only time will tell how enormous the destruction they have caused really is. 

I kind of agree, though, I think most of the destruction of the Thai tourism industry has been directly caused by the pandemic and could not have been helped much, no matter who was in power. 

 

Smarter countries started working on plans to move affected tourism workers to other industries. 

 

Anyway, the Thais have one potential savor and that is China. China could easily send 40 million tourists a year in exchange for economic leverage in Thailand. They are experts at weaponising their tourists. 

[smedly]

6 hours ago, pagallim said:

Not trying to make any point, and of course the whole 'Sandbox' philosophy was/is grossly overstated.   It's you that is trying to make a point, inferring nobody was using it any more.   I live in Phuket, and probably access more news and information through local sources than most.   For those people, and they constitute the overwhelming majority, who have undertaken it, it's been far more agreeable than the alternative two weeks confinement in a Bangkok hotel room.   For them it hasn't failed.

 

Difficult to see how any form of 'Sandbox' can work unless as in the case of Phuket and Samui, they are islands where access can be strictly controlled.   Bangkok, Pattaya, Hua Hin, how is that going to work?   How are they going to control the anticipated large numbers of people previously returned to their home provinces and now wishing to get back to employment, and likely to have had no vaccine?

 

 

well sure we can leave it at that - at least we agree on something 

[boogiewoogie]

9 hours ago, pagallim said:

Actually, the total was 28,000 in early September.   There are a number of sources for daily totals, typically from Facebook news outlets.   Number of first PCR tests undertaken on arrivals is usually a good starter.   Are the numbers low?   Of course they are, but people are still arriving though for reasons and purposes not related strictly to tourism.   

 

Just looked at arriving international flights today, 2 from Singapore, 1 from Dubai, and 1 from Hong Kong.   These flights are not empty.

 

EDIT:   OK, just looking through some things, the Richard Barrow "Thai News Reports" on FB is a reliable source.   This from a couple of days ago:

 

"Update: On 24th September, 438 international travellers arrived on 5 flights bringing the total to 36,330. Since 1st July, 105 Sandboxers (+4) have tested positive. 38 on 1st test, 32 on 2nd test, 11 on 3rd test, and 24 from close contact test".

Close contact test? I thought they stopped it after fiasco with that poor german woman.

[The Hammer2021]

No bars, no clubs, no nightlife, no entertainment, no wine with food...A depressed  oppressed population..Police and army besting protestors and arresting beer drinkers!.. There is absolutely no reason to visit Thailand at the moment...It is a pariah state and classifies as a dangerous covid red zone. Thailand will never recover its former tourist industry. I live in Pattaya. It is finished

[The Hammer2021]

6 hours ago, BangkokReady said:

I've been told a few times that Thailand doesn't need foreigners at all, so I don't know what all the fuss is about.

Who told you? When? Where? Did they have the authority to speak on such matters? Or are you in fact simply not telling the truth at all?

[The Hammer2021]

11 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

So 40,000 international arrivals July to September, guess that leaves 240,000 for October to December. 

 

Dropping to 7 days quarantine is not going to increase travellers x 6 needed for that ridiculous number

I thought vacinated visitors don't have to do quarantine but who will visit here with no entertainment and no nightlife?  No booze? No clubs, no bars, ..just curfews, police raids and democracy activists being beaten?

[GinBoy2]

5 hours ago, DaveSamutP said:

And, that is the perfect evidence that their employment/unemployment figures are absolutely fabricated. 

 

As are most other figures in the Kingdom. 

 

Some brave journo should ask a government minister to explain the discrepancy 

 

Well that's the problem, nobody knows the real number, and it would indeed be a brave journalist who tried to uncover the real number. Express train to re-education camp!

 

Even in normal times they report something like 1% unemployment, which doesn't take a rocket scientist to know is laughable.

 

Take a look in any village in Isaan and I'd wager 30% are unemployed, or underemployed at best.

 

So here we are and probably the majority of the fallout from this worked in the gray sector, never on the books.

 

So how you count those hundreds of thousands I just don't know

Edited September 28, 2021 by GinBoy2

[Gottfrid]

Lies, lies, and lies! After that a little more lies! What about this? Why are they saying it´s down from half million to 280 000?

This was standing as words from a very prominent figure in the Thai tourism authorities in January:

"Tourism levy to be announced in the Royal Gazette shortly and will provide full medical coverage to all foreign tourists in Thai hospitals including Covid-19 medical coverage. Minister of Tourism and Sports Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn is predicting 10 million visitors to the kingdom in 2021."

It´s really terrible that things that are said before, is still on internet! Thais was from the ThaiExaminer.

[zyphodb]

16 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

And 3 million that don't appear on the unemployment figures

And the rest...

[johnhender]

I wanted to come to BKK this November for 2 weeks but they cannot seem to get their act together So I have written BKK off for the near future. I am not going to spend 22 hours on a plane to be stuck in a hotel room that isn't even as nice as my home. It is expensive enough to travel to Thailand, much less got there to get ripped off on Covid tests that we get at home for free- who needs this headache, I don't even want to think about how the taxi's will try to make up 18 months of fares in one trip or how I am going to get gouged every time I turn around - I have been to thailand 58 times Maybe our relationship has ran it course - Costa Rica is 4 hour flight leaves from the airport near my place 3 times a day Has most of what Thailand has, no silly rules, Clean beaches where you can get peace, They care about the environment, Clean , the streets don't flood, Plenty of Hot Tico women and tons of bars and they are always happy to see you   

[hotchilli]

17 hours ago, webfact said:

The crucial tourism sector has lost about 3 million jobs during the pandemic, the Tourism Council of Thailand said in a statement.

That's strange... 

The labour minister said the Thai unemployment total for the whole population was only 2.8 million.

Hmmmm

[hotchilli]

16 hours ago, smedly said:

How many times does it need to be repeated before these buffoons get the message

More than the average person.

[ronster]

Must be fake news . I’m sure Prayut said nobody was unemployed and everyone had a job despite covid !????

[Bim Smith]

Losing 20 percent of your economy and only 3 million jobs lost? I smell something.

[Bangkok Barry]

15 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

It does have it's own class. And the leaders would likely refer to them as "the uncounted 60%, of the unbathed masses".

They don't refer to those in the 'shadow economy' as anything, because to them they don't even exist. Certainly, they've done next to nothing to assist them in any way.

[Benmart]

16 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

With this scaling back of Tourist Numbers for the Year to 280 K that is basically saying that from Nov 1st to Year end, each of the proposed 10 sites to be opened up is going to receive 28,000 visitors each over 2 full months.

Phuket has only had 33,000 over 3 Months, and many of those were desperate Individuals that needed to return back to Thailand to see their Families again.

I would like to think that this would be a realistic figure, but somehow, I think its all Pie in the Sky.

Many Business Operators will not be opening for such small numbers, because its cheaper to stay closed than open up, and have all the overheads and outlays for small numbers that will likely not even see the Business break even.

 

"Many Business Operators will not be opening for such small numbers, because its cheaper to stay closed than open up, and have all the overheads and outlays for small numbers that will likely not even see the Business break even". So true in the case of a local sit-down coffee cafe that has been hanging on here in Pattaya. The owner finally threw in the towel four days ago and closed for two months. Rains, flooding, no tourists and flip-flops from the talking heads in Bangkok finally put the brakes on business. 

[mrfill]

18 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

So 40,000 international arrivals July to September, guess that leaves 240,000 for October to December. 

 

Dropping to 7 days quarantine is not going to increase travellers x 6 needed for that ridiculous number

Perhaps they're hoping for a massive rush to arrive on Thursday...

[superal]

16 hours ago, smedly said:

34,000ish total at start of Sept as I remember and that is it 

 

what exact point are you trying to make ?, sandbos was and still is a flop as massive failure and yet it seems they are intent on rolling it out to other places Nov 1st - that was the point of my previous post which still stands

 

you can argue a couple of hundred numbers here and there and matters not a jot, sandbox failed

Sandbox failed ? Depends from which perspective you are quoting from i.e. The expat returnees no longer imprisoned for 2 weeks in a Bangkok hotel and treated like lepers but instead allowed to walk around outside to the beaches etc of Phuket .  Is there another country offering this service ? The Thai authorities are well aware of the restrictions imposed by other countries for foreign travel e.g. the UK and I doubt that residents from the UK are to be expected to tour Thailand any time soon . It is however my belief that there are serious concerns from the Thai government because of the unknown amount of Thai people out of work , without money and probably surviving on charity from family and friends . By opening the SHA resorts , reducing restrictions and hoping the return of tourists soon to give employment to Thais  , is really their only hope apart from a dip into the Thai foreign reserves to subsidise this growing national disaster. Desperate people do desperate things to survive.

[smedly]

6 minutes ago, superal said:

Sandbox failed ? Depends from which perspective you are quoting from i.e. The expat returnees no longer imprisoned for 2 weeks in a Bangkok hotel and treated like lepers but instead allowed to walk around outside to the beaches etc of Phuket

That is true many on here including myself have stated many times it was marginally better than ASQ but as a tourist project it failed and not sure if they understand why but the reasons for the failure have been posted here many times - in fact posted here pre-sandbox

[smedly]

12 minutes ago, superal said:

Is there another country offering this service ?

The UK (and others) approve a country as "Green" meaning vaccinated visitors from there are welcome with little to no red tape, Thailand decided to treat all visitors pretty much close to Red expecting them to come lol

[superal]

3 minutes ago, smedly said:

That is true many on here including myself have stated many times it was marginally better than ASQ but as a tourist project it failed and not sure if they understand why but the reasons for the failure have been posted here many times - in fact posted here pre-sandbox

Oh come on , it is / was many times better than the ASQ, being imprisoned in a room ( sometimes without windows and food left outside your door 3 times a day ) . Current restrictions and the current rate of covid infections will have an effect of course . If the Thai government cannot somehow create a way of income for the out of work tourist dependant Thai workers , they will be facing some serious dilemmas .  

[konaboy]

The baht is struggling

[khunpa]

8 hours ago, The Hammer2021 said:

No bars, no clubs, no nightlife, no entertainment, no wine with food...A depressed  oppressed population..Police and army besting protestors and arresting beer drinkers!.. There is absolutely no reason to visit Thailand at the moment...It is a pariah state and classifies as a dangerous covid red zone. Thailand will never recover its former tourist industry. I live in Pattaya. It is finished

And that is the exact problem…. It is not a holiday environment worth visiting, unless watching food-lines, closed shops etc. somehow makes you happy.

 

Had the government supported people, businesses and focused on domestic tourism, there would still be “life” and activity. The return to normal would have been easy. Now it is uphill and will take years instead of months.

[khunpa]

13 minutes ago, konaboy said:

The baht is struggling

Yes the reality is starting to show.

[pagallim]

402 international arrivals in Phuket yesterday/28th.