Thai industry group scales down tourism forecast, says 3 million jobs lost

[superal]

9 minutes ago, khunpa said:

And that is the exact problem…. It is not a holiday environment worth visiting, unless watching food-lines, closed shops etc. somehow makes you happy.

 

Had the government supported people, businesses and focused on domestic tourism, there would still be “life” and activity. The return to normal would have been easy. Now it is uphill and will take years instead of months.

To lockdown or not , that is the question . Damned if you do damned if you don't . Nearing reality and the truth I think because Thailand has no proper social security and remains focused on the top tier of its society  . If there had been a safety net with the Thai government prepared to help its citizens by similar means as the majority of the world , that would have provided a solution but as things stand they only have one throw of the dice . With covid here to stay the Thai government need to reassess the situation and maybe dilute the tourist dependant Thai workforce . 

[aussiexpat]

8 minutes ago, pagallim said:

402 international arrivals in Phuket yesterday/28th.

Worse part is if you divide the room nights by the 14 day minimum stay you only have about 9,300 booked for October and only 2000 booked for Nov/Dec

 

Note: 7 day stay wouldn't have kicked in yet

Edited September 29, 2021 by aussiexpat

[itsari]

20 hours ago, smedly said:

someone using that calculator again with the sticky buttons

 

unless they dump the sandbox red tape including rip off SHA hotels and tests and all the rest plus open pubs and entertainment - nobody is coming

 

How many times does it need to be repeated before these buffoons get the message

I do agree  with your post Mr Smedly . Yet what ever Thailand decides to do with its borders will ultimately depend on what demands are imposed on the foreign tourists when they return to there home country . 

 

[superal]

13 minutes ago, pagallim said:

402 international arrivals in Phuket yesterday/28th.

Yes and only 4 international flights arrived but had 12 flights from Bangkok . So is it OK to fly to Bangkok and then transfer on a domestic flight to Phuket etc ?

[pagallim]

4 minutes ago, superal said:

Yes and only 4 international flights arrived but had 12 flights from Bangkok . So is it OK to fly to Bangkok and then transfer on a domestic flight to Phuket etc ?

Not at the moment, and I doubt that will happen until quarantine of any form is removed.   The pace of relaxation seems to be picking up though, starting 1st October with the reduction of the 'Sandbox' to 7 days, and the reintroduction of alcohol sales in Phuket restaurants.

[superal]

27 minutes ago, pagallim said:

Not at the moment, and I doubt that will happen until quarantine of any form is removed.   The pace of relaxation seems to be picking up though, starting 1st October with the reduction of the 'Sandbox' to 7 days, and the reintroduction of alcohol sales in Phuket restaurants.

So it must be domestic flights only going from Bangkok to Phuket ? How does that make any sense or are they cargo only flights ?

[pagallim]

1 minute ago, superal said:

So it must be domestic flights only going from Bangkok to Phuket ? How does that make any sense or are they cargo only flights ?

There are two terminals at Phuket airport, International and Domestic.   There is a reception and testing protocol to be undertaken by international arrivals.   

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, superal said:

Sandbox failed ? Depends from which perspective you are quoting from i.e. The expat returnees no longer imprisoned for 2 weeks in a Bangkok hotel and treated like lepers but instead allowed to walk around outside to the beaches etc of Phuket .  Is there another country offering this service ? The Thai authorities are well aware of the restrictions imposed by other countries for foreign travel e.g. the UK and I doubt that residents from the UK are to be expected to tour Thailand any time soon . It is however my belief that there are serious concerns from the Thai government because of the unknown amount of Thai people out of work , without money and probably surviving on charity from family and friends . By opening the SHA resorts , reducing restrictions and hoping the return of tourists soon to give employment to Thais  , is really their only hope apart from a dip into the Thai foreign reserves to subsidise this growing national disaster. Desperate people do desperate things to survive.

Yes. Over 70 countries are FULLY open to tourism. No restrictions. No COE. No sandbox. Just a covid test and vaccination. This is what I call adult behavior. The Thais are the true Zombies in this equation now. Look at the percent of Covid cases in Phuket. Of the nearly 10,000 cases to date, 1% are due to foreigners. 

[BritManToo]

21 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

Thais are a bit slow on the learning phase ????

No, I think the Thai government doesn't really care about tourists coming.

They are just posturing to appease the local hotel owners and staff. 

[khunPer]

22 hours ago, aussiexpat said:

So 40,000 international arrivals July to September, guess that leaves 240,000 for October to December. 

 

Dropping to 7 days quarantine is not going to increase travellers x 6 needed for that ridiculous number

They are dropping quarantine for vaccinated tourists from November 1st, that'll make a difference for the coming high season, so the number might not be far out...????

[AnotherFarang8]

Already planning my holiday, as most tourists, ahead of time. It’s just it will not be to Thailand but to one of those friendlier countries that have nothing more than a pcr test before departure or even zero requirements. Hint: their shores are washed by the Caribbean sea.

 

Thailand, taking these baby steps, simply does not have time to get everything back on track in terms of tourism infrastructure for this high season. If they cancelled all requirements today, it would still not be fun to go there in winter. Tourism in Thailand has been single-handedly destroyed and you all know the name of this person.

[Millcx]

22 hours ago, timendres said:

They will likely be adding zeroes.

Or Rich Indians 5555555

[Rampant Rabbit]

23 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

And 3 million that don't appear on the unemployment figures

probably 2.99  million who wont take  any job either<  I  still  have a vacancy for someone to work at my  land long  term 14k start salary free  house electric  water motorbike...nah too  much like hard  work, better just to sit  home and bludge off the  family who are working.

[Rampant Rabbit]

21 minutes ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

zero requirements.

Thats the ONLY way  imo

[Rampant Rabbit]

47 minutes ago, khunPer said:

They are dropping quarantine for vaccinated tourists from November 1st, that'll make a difference for the coming high season, so the number might not be far out...????

Thats  ok IF  no  tests and IF you can get back to your  home country without some other stupid  overpriced  quarantine nonsense from them

[spidermike007]

24 minutes ago, AnotherFarang8 said:

Already planning my holiday, as most tourists, ahead of time. It’s just it will not be to Thailand but to one of those friendlier countries that have nothing more than a pcr test before departure or even zero requirements. Hint: their shores are washed by the Caribbean sea.

 

Thailand, taking these baby steps, simply does not have time to get everything back on track in terms of tourism infrastructure for this high season. If they cancelled all requirements today, it would still not be fun to go there in winter. Tourism in Thailand has been single-handedly destroyed and you all know the name of this person.

Extreme cowardice, combined with government sponsored fear mongering, seems to have the native population whipped up into a tizzy. The intended result? Certainly very few "illegal" protests. 

 

One would think this is Bubonic plague with a fatality level of 55%.

[toofarnorth]

23 hours ago, JonnyF said:

40 Million down to 280,000. And most of those aren't really tourists, just people returning from overseas. That's quite a hit.

 

3 million jobs lost.

 

Lucky that tourism isn't really that important to Thailand ????.

Sarcasm alert I am pleased to see. Unless you are a Thai HiSo then ' Tourists , who needs them '.

[cape]

A bit more thought, effort and money and this disaster could have been avoided. 

[VBF]

17 hours ago, DaveSamutP said:

And, that is the perfect evidence that their employment/unemployment figures are absolutely fabricated. 

 

As are most other figures in the Kingdom. 

 

Some brave journo should ask a government minister to explain the discrepancy 

Which is presumably at least part of the reason Thailand is on UK's Red List. Whatever figures are issued by the Thai Govt, who can actually trust them?

[orchidfan]

19 hours ago, Scrotobike said:

No one counts them as most are not entitled to benefits. They just go back to their village. Become "farmers"

The returning "girls" I saw up in NE Thailand (I visited 2 weeks over Songkran) certainly didn't do any farming (as you correctly implied by your inverted commas).

They just lay around on the cool floor, either looking at themselves in a mirror or glued to their phones.

Oh yes, free food from family,and somewhere to sleep......but go out in that hot sun on the farm ?? 

Forget it, no way. 

[mar zarych]

Frustrated by all the rosy projections and constant changing  and contradictory statements. I gave up on returning to Thailand  if ANY of the "covid" rules apply except that I prove full vaccination and will take a test as I've had to on other trips. Thats it ! I recently arrived in Tashkent and didn't have to jump through the money making hoops.  No one has tried to overcharge me despite the language barrier.  They will have to make it much more convenient for me to come back to Thailand visited on and off for 30 yrs. 

 

[Chiang Mai Will]

I wonder what the ''actual'' -- ''real'' -- number of Thais involved in the tourist industry really is/was?

 

To say 3 million are now unemployed means nothing as those are ''registered'' workers (taxpayers?). Many will not be ''officially'' employed -- 50% more? 60% more? -- it's impossible to know.

 

Many will work in the peripheral ''industries'' other than hotels, restaurants, drivers, travel agencies -- cleaners, shop owners, ''night-time bar 'entertainers' '', private tour guides.

 

I keep asking my wife how these people are surviving but she can't answer. Makes me wonder anyway.

[Trevor Collins]

"The crucial tourism sector has lost about 3 million jobs during the pandemic, the Tourism Council of Thailand said in a statement."

 

Those 3 million unemployed could all pick up a brush and give the country a good clean, improving its image on the world stage as a nice place to visit. Why not repair the roads while you're at it?

Edited September 29, 2021 by Trevor Collins
syntax

[sambum]

On 9/28/2021 at 3:49 PM, Cake Monster said:

With this scaling back of Tourist Numbers for the Year to 280 K that is basically saying that from Nov 1st to Year end, each of the proposed 10 sites to be opened up is going to receive 28,000 visitors each over 2 full months.

Phuket has only had 33,000 over 3 Months, and many of those were desperate Individuals that needed to return back to Thailand to see their Families again.

I would like to think that this would be a realistic figure, but somehow, I think its all Pie in the Sky.

Many Business Operators will not be opening for such small numbers, because its cheaper to stay closed than open up, and have all the overheads and outlays for small numbers that will likely not even see the Business break even.

 

Good final point. Until Thailand opens FULLY  to all vaccinated tourists without all these tests and  and forced stays in exorbitant Government approved hotels, there will be no sudden mad rush to come to Thailand, in spite of what TAT are bound to say shortly.

 

Where I live, the bars and restaurants were allowed to open normally for a while before Delta 5 varaiant came along, and I think it is safe to say that at least 50% didn't bother because the lack of tourists made it financially unviable to pay staff wages and all other overheads, I saw a guy in one large bar "ring the bell" to buy everybody in the bar a drink because he was the only one (he had to buy 2 or 3 ladydrinks, but I think he was glad of the company!)

[GinBoy2]

1 hour ago, Chiang Mai Will said:

I wonder what the ''actual'' -- ''real'' -- number of Thais involved in the tourist industry really is/was?

 

To say 3 million are now unemployed means nothing as those are ''registered'' workers (taxpayers?). Many will not be ''officially'' employed -- 50% more? 60% more? -- it's impossible to know.

 

Many will work in the peripheral ''industries'' other than hotels, restaurants, drivers, travel agencies -- cleaners, shop owners, ''night-time bar 'entertainers' '', private tour guides.

 

I keep asking my wife how these people are surviving but she can't answer. Makes me wonder anyway.

Well the vast majority come from the North and NE, and they simply go home and hang out on the family farm.

 

Rural Thai families are pretty multi generational homes with the younger ones coming and going dependant on work.

 

So the work dries up in the bar in Pattaya or whatever they go home and do some day labor in the rice or sugar farm.

 

Thats pretty much how it works

[natway09]

I have been in the industry for 40 years. 

I think you can double that figure as the Government really has no idea of the vast number of Thais involved in the shattered "tourist industry as they have never kept records

[Scrotobike]

17 hours ago, orchidfan said:

The returning "girls" I saw up in NE Thailand (I visited 2 weeks over Songkran) certainly didn't do any farming (as you correctly implied by your inverted commas).

They just lay around on the cool floor, either looking at themselves in a mirror or glued to their phones.

Oh yes, free food from family,and somewhere to sleep......but go out in that hot sun on the farm ?? 

Forget it, no way. 

Yes - it was sarcasm - hence the quotes. But the general and his minions do not count these are unemployed

[pagallim]

[aussiexpat]

21 minutes ago, pagallim said:

So they originally had a ridiculous number for the 3 month sandbox which they scaled down to 139,000.

 

Looks like they'll be about 100,500 short

[Chiang Mai Will]

22 hours ago, GinBoy2 said:

Well the vast majority come from the North and NE, and they simply go home and hang out on the family farm.

 

Rural Thai families are pretty multi generational homes with the younger ones coming and going dependant on work.

 

So the work dries up in the bar in Pattaya or whatever they go home and do some day labor in the rice or sugar farm.

 

Thats pretty much how it works

But they can't all have parents who own farms!