People who are fully vaccinated against covid-19 are far less likely to infect others

[Jeffr2]

5 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

So I'm a private equity investment analyst by trade. I work with some very talented data scientists and we discuss this topic with some regularity. In fact, in that instance I'm the one doing cheerleading for vaccines. And to be honest, the degree of vaccine hesitancy among numerics people surprises me. But I'm pretty confident that there isn't a problem with my math.

 

The broad mortality rate going forward is different than the broad mortality rate looking backwards. Why? Two main reasons. (1) As you've said, cases and deaths are undercounts. But cases are very likely to be more severely undercounted than deaths because it's a lot easier to notice deaths than asymptomatic cases; and (2) vaccine saturation at this point has pushed down severity and vaccines are readily enough available in many places that I don't see any case to protect skeptics that don't want that protection.

 

Besides that, arguing about mortality rate swings of tenths of a percent is irrelevant to my point that measures taken are disproportionate to risk. And at this point they're wildly so.

 

Anyway I'm not going to belabor this point more than I already have. I'm aware that many of you guys are older with backgrounds that make this discussion kinda fruitless for all involved, and it doesn't feel right to me to cause additional anxiety at this stage. 

Cool!  I almost went this route, but ended up in sales and marketing for the parties! LOL.

 

As I've shown, that 1% number is not right.  Many covid deniers try to use that statistic, and it's wrong.  Cases and deaths were significantly under counted in the beginning of the pandemic.  Test kits weren't available, coroners had no idea what they were dealing with, so didn't properly record deaths in the beginning, and as you probably know, many countries don't report at all.  Especially in Africa. 

 

So trying to rely on any statistic is a fallacy as the underlying data is wrong.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Jeffr2

[The Cipher]

One last thing to add.

 

Quote

Your aim has always been to downplay the virus, simple as that.

Yes. An aim of mine has been to downplay the virus relative to gen pub's common perception of it.

 

I am of the opinion, which I have articulated at length at this point, that the virus has been over-hyped and that the cost of measures taken to fight it have been overlooked. And the disconnect between virus perception and reality has created problems.

 

Our aim should be neither to view the virus as worse than it is nor less severe than it is. Instead, we ought to be striving to obtain as clear and accurate an image as possible so that we can respond as optimally as possible.

[Jeffr2]

7 minutes ago, The Cipher said:

One last thing to add.

 

Yes. An aim of mine has been to downplay the virus relative to gen pub's common perception of it.

 

I am of the opinion, which I have articulated at length at this point, that the virus has been over-hyped and that the cost of measures taken to fight it have been overlooked. And the disconnect between virus perception and reality has created problems.

 

Our aim should be neither to view the virus as worse than it is nor less severe than it is. Instead, we ought to be striving to obtain as clear and accurate an image as possible so that we can respond as optimally as possible.

That's a very blanket statement.  In the US, what you say, sure isn't true.  The severity of the virus was downplayed extensively, resulting in many unnecessary deaths. Vaccines were attacked, as were some wearing masks.  Social distancing was ignored.  Etc, etc, etc.  Thus, the US has one of the highest death rates and the economy is a mess.

 

In other countries, like NZ, very strict measures were taken.  And guess what?

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nz-economy-surges-housing-retail-drive-post-covid-recovery-2021-06-16/

 

NZ economy surges as housing, retail drive post-COVID recovery

New Zealand's economic growth swept past forecasts in the first quarter on the back of a housing boom and strong retail spending, avoiding a second recession and bringing forward expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.6% in the three months through to March, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday, well ahead of a Reuters poll forecast of 0.5% growth and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) estimate of a 0.6% fall.

 

New Zealand's success in virtually eliminating the coronavirus in the country allowed it to reopen its domestic economy must before other advanced nations, boosting employment and consumer spending.

[placeholder]

 

A hugely disproportionate number of the deaths from covid are of the unvaccinated or those who haven't had a clinical case of covid. What needs to done is to get them vaccinated. Also, it's not yet known what the effect of 3 vaccinations will be. It's not unprecedented for more than 2 vaccinations to be required to acquire long term immunity.

The polio vaccine, for example, was given in 4 doses.

Edited November 12, 2021 by onthedarkside

[sezze]

 

If everybody is vaccinated , then all infections/positives are from vaccinated people . Vaccinated people can get sick also , and can spread it , but the chances are smaller for vaccinated vs non vaccinated people . So if your 70% is vaccinated and they count for 60% of infections , it is still working ,since the amount of people vaccinated is larger then the 60% ( in this case 70% ) . Next up is even more important , which is how many end up in hospital and how many in critical/icu/death? The There is the biggest difference between vaccinated vs non vaccinated.

 

There are vaccinated people there , and again , if 100% of people are vaccinated , there will still be people there . Also again , the difference is that the chances of ending up in hospital and even more in death , is much larger for non vaccinated then for vaccinated .

 

We all want a 100% vaccine , vaccinated and can't spread and cannot get sick anymore . It is a dream , and hopefully it does come along or even better the virus just mutates itself into something completely harmless . But as long as it isnt there , getting vaccinated is the best thing we got if we want to life to get as normal as possible .

[metisdead]

Some abusive troll posts and the replies have been removed. 

[ozimoron]

Among previously infected Kentucky residents, those who were not vaccinated were more than twice as likely to be reinfected compared with those with full vaccination.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm

[fjb 24]

12 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Among previously infected Kentucky residents, those who were not vaccinated were more than twice as likely to be reinfected compared with those with full vaccination.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm

Delta strain did not exist until June 2021 and are the CDC MMRW's peer reviewed, I think NOT.

Edited November 12, 2021 by fjb 24

[placeholder]

 

COVID-19 vaccine gives 5 times the protection of 'natural immunity,' data show

 

 

US adults who previously had COVID-19 contracted the disease at more than five times the rate of those who were fully vaccinated, according to data published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).

 

Rolling out vaccines during a pandemic is not easy, and people can get confused by evidence that shows COVID vaccines don't work perfectly, including a study yesterday showing that household spread with the Delta (B1617.2) variant still happens after vaccination, albeit not as readily in the unvaccinated and not leading to severe cases (see today's CIDRAP News story).

 

Yet the body of evidence continues to grow that, despite their imperfections, COVID-19 vaccines continue to work very well, and today's study adds to that.

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/10/covid-19-vaccine-gives-5-times-protection-natural-immunity-data-show

 

 

[blackprince]

On 11/4/2021 at 9:16 AM, The Cipher said:

I work with some very talented data scientists ..... And to be honest, the degree of vaccine hesitancy among numerics people surprises me....The broad mortality rate going forward is different than the broad mortality rate looking backwards...

 I'm aware that many of you guys are older with backgrounds that make this discussion kinda fruitless for all involved, and it doesn't feel right to me to cause additional anxiety at this stage. 

Well I am older, probably a lot older, and commensurately more experienced. I have managed data science projects for decades. Data science was the focus of my BSc and MA theses, so I obviously don't fit the stereotype you are painting.

 

One of the challenges of managing data science techies, whether in the stock market or other application areas, is getting them to look at the bigger picture, something many of them are unable to do because (1) they are trained to dive into the detail and (2) they usually have a narrow psychological focus which attracted them to that kind of work in the first place. In layman's terms, they often can't see the wood for the trees. Fortunately I don't fit into the latter category either.

 

The bigger covid picture includes:

 

(1) long covid, estimated by the UK's NHS at c 50% of discharged patients and by other research at c 50% of cases (that surprised me too) - I linked to the research a few days ago. As I'm sure you know, long covid has many potential symptoms ranging from substantial damage to vital organs to debilitating brain fog. Long covid can affect people of any age, otherwise healthy or not.

 

(2) breakdown of national health services due to overloading of beds and ICU facilities. Such a national catastrophe would have unpredictable societal consequences, particularly in developed nations where citizens tend to expect a bit more from their governments.

 

(3) suppression of more aggressive mutant variants.

 

If covid was just about the mortality rate, my analysis would possibly not be too different from yours, for most demographic groups anyway; but covid isn't just about the mortality rate - far from it.

 

 

 

 

[fjb 24]

Quote

“The Center for Covid-19 Situation Administration confirmed just now at a major meeting and press conference that all entertainment venues nationally, like bars, nightclubs, pubs, karaoke lounges, etc. Will remain shut until at least January 15th, 2022.”

BKK is 93% fully vaccinated, Chonburi, is 74.8% and Pattaya mayor claims 80% fully vaccinated there. Vaccines alone are NOT enough to prevent the spread of covid, and NPI is still the norm to push the R0 down. Don't believe for a second vaccination alone will save the day, unfortunately lock downs, quarantine, isolation is impossible now in many countries.

[onthedarkside]

One post presenting Public Health England data with a graphic that appears to come from some other source, and has no required weblink to the actual source, has been removed along with several replies.

 

Another misleading post claiming COVID vaccines don't help prevent the spread of COVID has been removed, along with several replies. In fact, various studies have shown that fully vaccinated people are less likely to contract the coronavirus, and thus won't spread it to others, compared to those who are unvaccinated.

 

The post cited recent research showing that among those who become infected, vaccinated and unvaccinated people can have similar viral loads, and both can spread the virus to others, although the vaccinated supposedly are less likely to infect others.

 

But that's not the same thing as arguing, falsely, that COVID vaccines do nothing to prevent the spread of COVID, because, among other factors, fully vaccinated people are less likely to become infected in the first place.

 

       "Estimated effectiveness of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine

Vaccine effectiveness was around 80 to 95 percent for all outcomes before Delta, but now it’s 50 to 72 percent effective against infection and over 80 percent effective against hospitalization.

 

Estimated effectiveness of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine

Vaccine effectiveness was 87 to 96 percent for all outcomes before Delta, but now it’s 39 to 84 percent effective against infection and 75 to 95 percent effective against hospitalization.

 

Also:

 

"according to the latest study released by the CDC, unvaccinated people are over 10 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19 than vaccinated people.

 

Unvaccinated people are also 11 times more likely to die of COVID-19 than vaccinated people, the study found."

 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-how-well-covid-19-vaccines-work-against-the-delta-variant#Vaccines-vs.-Delta-variant

 

As of mid-September, 2021

 

Also note the original OP post in this thread, which is from a credible scientific news source:

 

The detail of the article goes into a discussion of why the much discussed similar viral loads issue in the vaccinated and unvaccinated has less meaning than it's often been given in recent news reports.

 

"Peto’s team specifically showed that there is little connection between Ct scores and infectiousness. “It appeared people who were positive after vaccination had the same viral load as the unvaccinated. We thought they were just as infectious. But it turns out you are less infectious,” says Peto. “That’s quite important. People were over-pessimistic.”

 

 

[Oblomov]

On 11/4/2021 at 9:21 AM, Jeffr2 said:

Cool!  I almost went this route, but ended up in sales and marketing for the parties! LOL.

 

As I've shown, that 1% number is not right.  Many covid deniers try to use that statistic, and it's wrong.  Cases and deaths were significantly under counted in the beginning of the pandemic.  Test kits weren't available, coroners had no idea what they were dealing with, so didn't properly record deaths in the beginning, and as you probably know, many countries don't report at all.  Especially in Africa. 

 

So trying to rely on any statistic is a fallacy as the underlying data is wrong.

 

 

An individual and his/her responsibility to personal  health/weight etc must be paramount in getting out of this mess, rather than relying on 'magical' vaccines, which though good, cannot ever be totally effective due to the mutations common to this and other corona viruses.

 

I know manyfriends who've had Covid, including myself, and none were hospitalized and only a few had some complications, being diabetic and overweight.  I hope we all get the message to get fitter and eat sensibly and the right things

Edited November 12, 2021 by onthedarkside
unsubstantiated hearsay comments removed

[onthedarkside]

A post making COVID claims has been removed, because the post itself contained no supporting information, and the weblink provided also did not directly point to any supporting data.

 

[fjb 24]

2 hours ago, fjb 24 said:

BKK is 93% fully vaccinated, Chonburi, is 74.8% and Pattaya mayor claims 80% fully vaccinated there. Vaccines alone are NOT enough to prevent the spread of covid, and NPI is still the norm to push the R0 down. Don't believe for a second vaccination alone will save the day, unfortunately lock downs, quarantine, isolation is impossible now in many countries.

Thailand vaccination tracker data.

https://covidtracker-th.netlify.app

Edited November 12, 2021 by fjb 24

[placeholder]

49 minutes ago, fjb 24 said:

Although some say vaccinated are less likely to get covid infection read the latest stats from UK-HSA which show more vaccinated are getting infected,  sick & hospitalized compared to non vaccinated, (in some age groups, 30 up).

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.go

1 hour ago, fjb 24 said:

Although some say vaccinated are less likely to get covid infection read the latest stats from UK-HSA which show more vaccinated are getting infected,  sick & hospitalized compared to non vaccinated, (in some age groups, 30 up).

 

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1032859/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_45.pdf

 

Effects of OAS (Original Antigenic Sin)?

Worth taking a look at.

 

Need a booster now as protection is waning with J&J down to 3% after 6 months. Moderna and Pfizer protection waning as well. Need a jab every 6 months for an ailment that has about a 98% survival rate. Staying fit is a good idea, especially now.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211019/Waning-COVID-vaccine-efficacy-especially-against-reinfection.aspx

v.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1032859/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_45.pdf

 

Effects of OAS (Original Antigenic Sin)?

Worth taking a look at.

 

Need a booster now as protection is waning with J&J down to 3% after 6 months. Moderna and Pfizer protection waning as well. Need a jab every 6 months for an ailment that has about a 98% survival rate. Staying fit is a good idea, especially now.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211019/Waning-COVID-vaccine-efficacy-especially-against-reinfection.aspx

The problem with these statistics is that they depend on voluntary testing by individuals. But death reporting doesn't depend on that, does it? . So tell us, what is the death rate of the vaccinated vs. the unvaccinated?

[ozimoron]

Some of the countries with the harshest lock downs have done very well economically. Working at home with broadband internet has benefited employees and companies alike. It is wrong to suggest that economies would thrive despite covid if only they opened up. People will simply not engage in normal activities during a pandemic. Likewise, if a pandemic is running rampant through schools, parents simply won't send their kids to school and teachers won't teach.

[Oblomov]

The point was that context should be added so that individuals can do more for themselves with regards to their own health so that a more robust reaction to any illness is possible - misrepresentation can be in the form of omission as well as a more obvious deception

 

Could you conceive that a lot of data is bereft of the context that allows a rational response to a  new threat ?

Edited November 12, 2021 by onthedarkside
quote of hidden post removed

[ozimoron]

26 minutes ago, Oblomov said:

The point was that context should be added so that individuals can do more for themselves with regards to their own health so that a more robust reaction to any illness is possible - misrepresentation can be in

 

Could you conceive that a lot of data is bereft of the context that allows a rational response to a  new threat ?

The advice that people should do more for their own health is not novel nor specific to covid. It is irrelevant as an argument here. It is widely acknowledged that many of those who have comorbidities are more likely to die from covid. It appears that your intention seems to be to either reclassify the death as not covid or to downplay the role that covid had in the death. What is not reasonable is to report every chronic ailment a person had as a cause of death when clearly the person died prematurely as a result of covid.

 

The points I am making here are self evident and in my opinion rational. They are supported by the common convention of classifying death from covid as caused by covid. There is no benefit to do otherwise and it is counterproductive, Your motive appears to be to attempt to convince folks that the death toll from covid is lower or should be qualified. You are wrong.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, fjb 24 said:

Need a booster now as protection is waning with J&J down to 3% after 6 months. Moderna and Pfizer protection waning as well.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211019/Waning-COVID-vaccine-efficacy-especially-against-reinfection.aspx

 

In your attempt to discredit / diminish current COVID vaccines, you cherry picked one statistic out of the above cited study regarding the effectiveness of the J&J vaccine at preventing infections in mid 2021 -- about six months after the study's population began being vaccinated.

 

But you neglected to also mention the same study's comparable findings re the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, so let me add those here:

 

"Initially, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was 88% effective in preventing infection. But by August, vaccine effectiveness dropped to 3%.

 

For the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, vaccine protection started at 91% and was reduced to 50% protection by August.

 

The Moderna vaccine showed the smallest reduction in vaccine effectiveness. A 92% vaccine effectiveness decreased to 64% by August."

 

I'll take a Pfizer vaccine that gives me 50% protection simply against becoming infected from the Delta variant, likewise a Moderna vaccine that gives me 64% protection against the same.

 

And that study data, of course, didn't address the even higher levels of protection that those same vaccines provide against COVID-related illness, hospitalizations and deaths.

 

As the article you cited quotes the study's authors as aptly saying in summary:

 

“COVID-19 vaccines remain the most important tool to prevent infection, severe illness, and death, but vaccines should be accompanied by additional measures, including masking, hand washing, physical distancing, and other public health interventions, in the face of increased risk of infection due to the Delta variant,” explained the researchers."

 

 

[onthedarkside]

A post's comments relying on unsubstantiated/unsourced hearsay information regarding COVID deaths has been removed, along with ensuing replies.

 

[Danderman123]

56 minutes ago, Oblomov said:

The point was that context should be added so that individuals can do more for themselves with regards to their own health so that a more robust reaction to any illness is possible - misrepresentation can be in the form of omission as well as a more obvious deception

 

Could you conceive that a lot of data is bereft of the context that allows a rational response to a  new threat ?

So, you don’t believe that governments have an obligation to protect citizens when some individuals decide their personal desires are more important than the health of the general public? 

[Danderman123]

58 minutes ago, Oblomov said:

The point was that context should be added so that individuals can do more for themselves with regards to their own health so that a more robust reaction to any illness is possible - misrepresentation can be in the form of omission as well as a more obvious deception

 

Could you conceive that a lot of data is bereft of the context that allows a rational response to a  new threat ?

The Herman Cain awards are filled with individuals who thought they had a healthy immune system.

[Jeffr2]

1 hour ago, Oblomov said:

The point was that context should be added so that individuals can do more for themselves with regards to their own health so that a more robust reaction to any illness is possible - misrepresentation can be in the form of omission as well as a more obvious deception

 

Could you conceive that a lot of data is bereft of the context that allows a rational response to a  new threat ?

Please. Don't post misinformation. Vaccines work. Impossible to argue this.

[Oblomov]

11 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Please. Don't post misinformation. Vaccines work. Impossible to argue this.

I have never once suggested vaccines aren't critically important - they are and I have always said that - please read more carefully - my point is that also people must assist medicine by optimizing their own robust immune responses to illness  with good diet, maintaining a healthy weight and eating properly.   Vaccines work and have really altered the outcomes of the aged and vulnerable but for those of us that can, we should all be trying to do so. Not only for this, but any health issue.

 

When did I ever suggest vaccines didn't work ?  I maybe should have used the word effective rather than magical but there is more to this fight than simply relying on vaccines as there may be a time when vaccines fail to tackle a mutated strain so getting healthier for ourselves is a no-brainer

 

[Oblomov]

19 minutes ago, Jeffr2 said:

Please. Don't post misinformation. Vaccines work. Impossible to argue this.

Never have suggested that and no idea why you'd think that - Having had my own booster as efficacy waned, I accept the need for vaccines so that hospitals can function and I wish more would have vaccinations so that all the other areas of health that hospitals must cope with, are not disrupted. 

 

Work is well under way on new vaccines in Oxford UK based on the study of natural responses of people who remain asymptomatic after infection - these ground breaking studies will significantly add understanding to this virus and how it can be tackled. My point was, and any forthright doctor will tell a patient, that as good as medicine is in any treatment of any condition, it will be significantly more efficacious in one who has maintained a healthy weight/diet/exercise regime etc..

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

“COVID-19 vaccines remain the most important tool to prevent infection, severe illness, and death, but vaccines should be accompanied by additional measures, including masking, hand washing, physical distancing, and other public health interventions, in the face of increased risk of infection due to the Delta variant,” explained the researchers."

 

 

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20211019/Waning-COVID-vaccine-efficacy-especially-against-reinfection.aspx

 

I couldn't agree more with the comments expressed above by the authors of this study on vaccine effectiveness.

 

My personal observation is... too many governments / localities have gone wrong in the COVID pandemic by thinking they could/should lift mask requirements and the other preventive measures mentioned above either once individuals have been fully vaccinated, or once some overall share of their society has been fully vaccinated.

 

Yes.. in different areas, there's public and political pressure to cease mask requirements and other measures as vaccinations progress. But as the results above show, current vaccines are not a 100% solution, and they're generally much more effective at preventing illness and death of the vaccinated than they are at preventing the vaccinated from spreading the virus to others.

 

Thus, I'm now fully vaccinated with two doses of AZ.... But recognizing all of the above, I really haven't changed my habits and routines at all from back in the earlier time when I was totally un-vaccinated. Still wear a mask when outside my home, still avoid bringing others into my home, the wife is working at home instead of in a public office, still avoid close quarters contact even when wearing a mask, and avoid crowded settings in general. All aimed at avoiding exposure to the virus.

 

But at least I know, should my avoidance efforts fail somewhere along the line and I do contract the virus despite my best efforts, I've taken the best vaccine available to me, and one that has a good track record of preventing the vast majority of COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

 

 

 

[The Cipher]

8 hours ago, blackprince said:

One of the challenges of managing data science techies, whether in the stock market or other application areas, is getting them to look at the bigger picture, something many of them are unable to do because (1) they are trained to dive into the detail and (2) they usually have a narrow psychological focus which attracted them to that kind of work in the first place. In layman's terms, they often can't see the wood for the trees. Fortunately I don't fit into the latter category either.

 

The bigger covid picture includes:

 

(1) long covid, estimated by the UK's NHS at c 50% of discharged patients and by other research at c 50% of cases (that surprised me too) - I linked to the research a few days ago. As I'm sure you know, long covid has many potential symptoms ranging from substantial damage to vital organs to debilitating brain fog. Long covid can affect people of any age, otherwise healthy or not.

 

(2) breakdown of national health services due to overloading of beds and ICU facilities. Such a national catastrophe would have unpredictable societal consequences, particularly in developed nations where citizens tend to expect a bit more from their governments.

 

(3) suppression of more aggressive mutant variants.

 

If covid was just about the mortality rate, my analysis would possibly not be too different from yours, for most demographic groups anyway; but covid isn't just about the mortality rate - far from it.

Shoot, I'm tempted to get drawn back into this topic. But my better judgment is telling me to pass.

 

8 hours ago, blackprince said:

look at the bigger picture

I'll just quickly confirm that my position on this topic hasn't changed, specifically due to big picture considerations in the macro. Ie, what is the best medium-long term move for our societies.

[fjb 24]

17 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I'll take a Pfizer vaccine that gives me 50% protection simply against becoming infected from the Delta variant,

Yeah, the BNT162b2 effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection starts about 3 weeks after 2nd dose and declines to 20% in months 5 to 7, but protection against hospitalization and death persisted at a robust level for 6 months after the second dose. This was the results of a study conducted in Qatar from Jan to Sep 2021.

So, all good, just need to keep your booster current after protection wanes.

The 3% protection is for a single dose of J&J in an other study.

Edited November 13, 2021 by fjb 24

[Jeffr2]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/11/world/europe/germany-covid-unvaccinated.html

Germany’s Fourth Covid Wave: ‘A Pandemic of the Unvaccinated’

Germany once set an example for how to manage the coronavirus. Now, deep pockets of vaccine resistance are helping drive daily infections to new heights.