Omicron five times more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder, study says

[gargamon]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/omicron-five-times-more-likely-to-reinfect-than-delta-no-milder-study-says-1.5711645

 

The risk of reinfection with the Omicron coronavirus variant is more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta, a study showed, as cases soar across Europe and threaten year-end festivities.

The results of the study by Imperial College London were based on U.K. Health Security Agency and National Health Service data on people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a PCR test in England between Nov. 29 and Dec. 11.

"We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalization attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta," the study said, although it added that data on hospitalizations remains very limited..

[2long]

This whole circus has become a social experiment to see how much fear the big drug companies can instill through their proxies; the media and governments. ????????????????

Covid is real, for sure. But greed is the real virus here in the 21st century.

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, 2long said:

This whole circus has become a social experiment to see how much fear the big drug companies can instill through their proxies; the media and governments. ????????????????

Covid is real, for sure. But greed is the real virus here in the 21st century.

How are the drug companies instilling fear? I would say they are instilling confidence and optimism, big time. Without those vaccines we would be in a hopeless situation. A year ago, I thought I was likely to die from this virus as I am elderly but now I think I will likely survive and only because of the vaccines.

[TorquayFan]

Gargamon - thanks for that - but we must take into account the relevant qualifications e.g. "the study said, although it added that data on hospitalizations remains very limited".

 

And "Dr Clive Dix, former Chair of the U.K. Vaccine Taskforce, said it was important not to overinterpret the data. "The conclusions made are based on making assumptions about Omicron where we still don't have sufficient data," Dr Dix said. "For example, we have no data on the cellular immune response which is now probably driving effectiveness of vaccines. This is a crucial missing assumption in the modelling. Some of the conclusions are different to the data emerging from South Africa, where vaccines are holding up well against severe disease and death at present", he said."

 

Omicron has an 'R' rate of between 3-5 compared to the R1 we were watching last year. It's very worrying and hard to see how Thailand will avoid stringent measures when transmission of Omicron becomes apparent.

 

However, clear messages from RSA from the start, have indicated that the rates of hospitalisation and severe illness are lower with Omicron. Let's hope that's right . . . .

Edited December 17, 2021 by TorquayFan
spacing

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, 2long said:

This whole circus has become a social experiment to see how much fear the big drug companies can instill through their proxies; the media and governments. ????????????????

Covid is real, for sure. But greed is the real virus here in the 21st century.

If you don’t fear a virus that has killed 5 million+, then I guess you can rationalize anything. Until it affects you personally.

[Danderman123]

How the study can conclude that Omnicron isn’t mild, but then state they have insufficient hospitalization data, is a mystery to me.

 

We know Omicron is very infectious.

 

We don’t know how severe it is in the Real World.

[Virt]

I read that the admissions to hospitals in South Africa is 1,7% of the omicron cases where Delta were 19%.

 

If that is true can we use those statistics as a prediction for the west?

Not really.

 

To many different factors.

Age, vaccinations status, % of people already infected, daily rise of infections, different restrictions/lockdowns and so on.

 

If i look at the current number of infections in Denmark.

We are seeing the highest numbers of infections during the entire pandemic, but we also test like crazy.

Last 2 days in rough numbers.

 

430000 PCR tests

(5.8 mill population)

 

21000 infections.

 

5500 Omicron.

15500 Delta.

 

What saved us so far, is that 80 % of the total population has been vaccinated.

 

Delta still cause approx 75% of the infections here, so vaccines are still a good choice, since you have no idea which variant that will catch you.

[metisdead]

A post with a video from an unapproved social media source has been removed. 

[Chomper Higgot]

5 hours ago, 2long said:

This whole circus has become a social experiment to see how much fear the big drug companies can instill through their proxies; the media and governments. ????????????????

Covid is real, for sure. But greed is the real virus here in the 21st century.

So now Imperial College is in league with drug companies conspiring to conduct a social experiment?!

 

There is an alternative.

 

No such conspiracy exists.

[KhunLA]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

How the study can conclude that Omnicron isn’t mild, but then state they have insufficient hospitalization data, is a mystery to me.

 

We know Omicron is very infectious.

 

We don’t know how severe it is in the Real World.

And few recorded deaths from it.  Just read a news-blip, none in USA as of yet.

[TorquayFan]

Early evidence is that the Omicron variant may be causing less hospitalisation and serious illness in the RSA. Here's a report from RSA which gives some signals :-

 

https://www.samrc.ac.za/news/tshwane-district-omicron-variant-patient-profile-early-features

 

 

 

 

[Danderman123]

11 hours ago, 2long said:

This whole circus has become a social experiment to see how much fear the big drug companies can instill through their proxies; the media and governments. ????????????????

Covid is real, for sure. But greed is the real virus here in the 21st century.

The only greed I see is from the hucksters selling fake Covid cures. 

[ozimoron]

Seven people believed to have had the Omicron variant had died as of Thursday, up from one death in the UKHSA's previous data which ran up to Tuesday.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/london-declares-major-incident-help-covid-hit-hospitals-2021-12-18/

[ozimoron]

Quote

Ohio became the latest state to summon the National Guard to help overwhelmed medical facilities. Experts in Nebraska warned that its hospitals soon may need to ration care.

Perhaps they should look at vaccine status when determining who gets the care and who misses out? We always knew it was going to come to this.

 

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-hospitals-struggle-as-covid-beds-fill-5e98f09c578a231be1411516e9dfff58

[ozimoron]

Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta; COVID-19 lowers sperm count, motility

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-infections-appear-no-less-severe-than-delta-covid-19-lowers-sperm-count-2021-12-20/

[Scott]

5 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Omicron infections appear no less severe than Delta; COVID-19 lowers sperm count, motility

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-infections-appear-no-less-severe-than-delta-covid-19-lowers-sperm-count-2021-12-20/

I suspect it will take some time to figure out what this variant is capable of doing.  I think a lot of people are forgetting that first you get infected then you get sick, then you get hospitalized and then you have the outcome of either getting better or dying.  The interval from infection to outcome can be very, very long.  I just saw a person on TV who spent 1 entire year in the hospital with Covid and the subsequent complications.

 

To add a little more confusion, we have people who are unvaccinated, we have people with one shot, two shots and some all the way up to a booster.  We have those who have had AZ, Sinovac, Sinopham and various mixes at various intervals.  

[jak2002003]

On 12/18/2021 at 8:29 AM, Danderman123 said:

If you don’t fear a virus that has killed 5 million+, then I guess you can rationalize anything. Until it affects you personally.

That is not a lot of people compared to other things like heart disease...yet we are not all going around scared to death of fried chicken. 

[Airalee]

Driving around Pattaya for the first time in years, I can understand the fear.

 

I’m just not sure what’s gonna get people first.  Old age, heart disease, cirrhosis, diabetes, obesity or Covid (due to the aforementioned comorbidities)

[Virt]

On 12/19/2021 at 4:03 AM, ozimoron said:

Seven people believed to have had the Omicron variant had died as of Thursday, up from one death in the UKHSA's previous data which ran up to Tuesday.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/london-declares-major-incident-help-covid-hit-hospitals-2021-12-18/

Just saw on sky news that UK will not make more restrictions before Christmas since there are not enough evidence if omicron is more severe.

So fingers crossed that it will stay less deadly, compared to delta 

[Danderman123]

6 hours ago, Virt said:

Just saw on sky news that UK will not make more restrictions before Christmas since there are not enough evidence if omicron is more severe.

So fingers crossed that it will stay less deadly, compared to delta 

It should be remembered that the spike in cases in the UK is mostly Delta, so there should be a big spike in hospitalizations and deaths in the next weeks.

 

i am hopeful that Omicron will eradicate Delta in the UK and Thailand. It is beginning to look like the end of the epidemic is coming.

 

 

[TorquayFan]

Danderman I'm interested in how a new variant moves to dominance. Does a new virus actually 'eradicate'  the existing virus or does it simply get to the victims first because it's more transmissible? Thanks.

[KC 71]

How does the PCR test differentiate which particular variant or strain someone might have ?

Serious question though , i have always wondered.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, TorquayFan said:

Danderman I'm interested in how a new variant moves to dominance. Does a new virus actually 'eradicate'  the existing virus or does it simply get to the victims first because it's more transmissible? Thanks.

The latter. So over time there are less and less opportunities for other strains to infect a host.

[Virt]

4 hours ago, KC 71 said:

How does the PCR test differentiate which particular variant or strain someone might have ?

Serious question though , i have always wondered.

Here in DK they developed a variant specific PCR test, that can detect omicron, so it's not necessary to do full genome sequencing, but they still sequence a lot to keep track of new mutations.

 

In this article there is a bit described about the test as far i can understand.

 

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.50.2101146?crawler=true

 

An RT-PCR detecting the Omicron variant using the 452L marker (estimated specificity: 99.99% based on retrospective analysis) [5] was developed and implemented in the TCDK by 1 December.

 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Virt

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, KC 71 said:

How does the PCR test differentiate which particular variant or strain someone might have ?

Serious question though , i have always wondered.

Fact check: Genomic sequencing, not PCR testing, detects COVID-19 variants

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/07/31/fact-check-covid-19-pcr-tests-dont-detect-virus-variants/5407334001/

[rabas]

9 hours ago, KC 71 said:

How does the PCR test differentiate which particular variant or strain someone might have ?

Serious question though , i have always wondered.

PCR is designed to detect all current SARS-2 strains without differentiation. In special cases, PCR can differentiate between variants, in particular Omicron versus other currently circulating strains.

 

How? PCR tests for 3 small code segments in the virus. If PCR detects all 3 then you detected covid. Omicron is so badly mutated that one of the 3 test fails, notably the spike or S-protein test. Currently, if PCR detects 2 code segments, and fails to detect the S-protein, you know you have Omicron.

 

This is a special case but is very useful considering how incredibly fast Omicron spreads. I believe their is now a new Omicron variant that is not detectable this way, but there are very few cases. 

[Scott]

A post violating Fair Use Policy has been removed.

 

[KC 71]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

Fact check: Genomic sequencing, not PCR testing, detects COVID-19 variants

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/07/31/fact-check-covid-19-pcr-tests-dont-detect-virus-variants/5407334001/

Oh right, so are people currently being tested via Genomic Sequencing ,and not With a PCR ? 

I find it all a bit confusing be honest ????

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, KC 71 said:

Oh right, so are people currently being tested via Genomic Sequencing ,and not With a PCR ? 

I find it all a bit confusing be honest ????

Did you actually read the article that the link led to?

"PCR tests can only tell if someone is positive or negative for the coronavirus. Positive samples, however, typically go through a more sophisticated analysis called genomic sequencing, which can discern whether a sample contains a new or a known COVID-19 variant."

[cdemundo]

15 hours ago, TorquayFan said:

Danderman I'm interested in how a new variant moves to dominance. Does a new virus actually 'eradicate'  the existing virus or does it simply get to the victims first because it's more transmissible? Thanks.

Discusses the process, but I think the direct answer is "It infects more people", 

It doesn't actually directly eradicate the other variants.

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-do-variants-such-as-delta-become-dominant1/#

 

"Why Do Variants Such as Delta Become Dominant?

Mutations that make a virus more transmissible are only part of the equation"