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ICE vs EV, the debate thread


KhunLA

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According to the SCB EIC report, which assessed the total cost of using a passenger car for 10 years, it was found that:

- Gasoline vehicles (ICE) have an average cost of 456,976 baht/10 years.
- Hybrid vehicles (HEV/PHEV) have an average cost of 426,868 baht/10 years.
- Pure electric vehicles (BEV) have an average cost of 386,166 baht/10 years.

The residual value of pure electric and hybrid vehicles tends to decrease by almost 50% from the selling price after only 1 year of use.

The residual value of electric cars tends to decrease rapidly, with depreciation of up to 50% after just one year of use, while gasoline-powered cars can retain their value in the first year of use at 67% of the new price.

Part of the reason why EVs have depreciated so much is due to their continuously declining resale prices, as well as concerns from the business sector about EVs in the used car market.

https://workpointtoday.com/thailand-vehicle-passenger-market/#:~:text

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50 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

The reason why electric cars have depreciated so much is that This is partly due to the continuous decline in selling prices

 

 All-electric vehicles and hybrid cars have become the main choice in the passenger car market since 2023 and are expected to continue to occupy the sales share.

 

From your link.

here is a good example why ICE hold their value better than EV

2020 MG ZS petrol 37,000km sold November 2022 B400,000

On one2car there are 45 Petrol 2020 MG ZS price ranging from B285K to B459K with 32 of the 45 listings priced at B364K or higher indicating that the MG ZS petrol hasn't depreciated much in the past 2 years 

when you compare to 2022 MG ZS EV Model D

MG ZS EV (D)
 Normal price: 1,189,000 baht with additional state's subsidy of 240,000 baht

   Net price: 949,000 baht*

One2one has 16 listings for MG ZS EV ranging from 2021 model B369K to B628K for a 2021 model

On the MG ZS EV facebook group their talking about between B300-B400K for used MG ZS

they didn't state which year but assume 2024

EV  with the recent price reduction to B599K

That is a whopping price reduction of 36.8% over a period of 20 months

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20 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

here is a good example why ICE hold their value better than EV

2020 MG ZS petrol 37,000km sold November 2022 B400,000

On one2car there are 45 Petrol 2020 MG ZS price ranging from B285K to B459K with 32 of the 45 listings priced at B364K or higher indicating that the MG ZS petrol hasn't depreciated much in the past 2 years 

when you compare to 2022 MG ZS EV Model D

MG ZS EV (D)
 Normal price: 1,189,000 baht with additional state's subsidy of 240,000 baht

   Net price: 949,000 baht*

One2one has 16 listings for MG ZS EV ranging from 2021 model B369K to B628K for a 2021 model

On the MG ZS EV facebook group their talking about between B300-B400K for used MG ZS

they didn't state which year but assume 2024

EV  with the recent price reduction to B599K

That is a whopping price reduction of 36.8% over a period of 20 months

If you own the car and are not selling do you really give a fork ?

 

😱

My life is ending because the car I bought apparently isn’t worth what some internet banana says it “could” be worth…

😱

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2 hours ago, vinny41 said:

here is a good example why ICE hold their value better than EV

2020 MG ZS petrol 37,000km sold November 2022 B400,000

On one2car there are 45 Petrol 2020 MG ZS price ranging from B285K to B459K with 32 of the 45 listings priced at B364K or higher indicating that the MG ZS petrol hasn't depreciated much in the past 2 years 

when you compare to 2022 MG ZS EV Model D

MG ZS EV (D)
 Normal price: 1,189,000 baht with additional state's subsidy of 240,000 baht

   Net price: 949,000 baht*

One2one has 16 listings for MG ZS EV ranging from 2021 model B369K to B628K for a 2021 model

On the MG ZS EV facebook group their talking about between B300-B400K for used MG ZS

they didn't state which year but assume 2024

EV  with the recent price reduction to B599K

That is a whopping price reduction of 36.8% over a period of 20 months


As soon as the manufacturer lowers the price, you have to work with that retail price concerning depreciation, even if the customer bought it at a much higher price. 

 

The manufacturer lowering the retail price immediately makes an effect on depreciation, but new cars depreciate at the correct rate and that is the rate you have to look at. 

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1 hour ago, HighPriority said:

If you own the car and are not selling do you really give a fork ?

 

😱

My life is ending because the car I bought apparently isn’t worth what some internet banana says it “could” be worth…

😱

I don't care much about depreciation, but I'm not the one flip-flopping from calling people liars to claiming it doesn't matter. 😱 😱 😱

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8 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Some are that way, but I'll pretty much speak my opinion the same, in person or on the internet.  

 

Your thought is valid, as I've invited a few local keyboard warriors to pop over to the house, years past, if wanting to discuss things in person.  None took me up on the offer ... go figure 😎

I have done that.  Even though I am the guy on the right.  No takers. 

3,900+ Wimp Man Stock Illustrations, Royalty-Free Vector Graphics ...

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3 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:


As soon as the manufacturer lowers the price, you have to work with that retail price concerning depreciation, even if the customer bought it at a much higher price. 

 

The manufacturer lowering the retail price immediately makes an effect on depreciation, but new cars depreciate at the correct rate and that is the rate you have to look at. 

Your thinking of trading up you have seen your dream car 0-100 km in 0.1 seconds your offered a reasonable good price for your trading in on the Friday  you tell the dealer that your think about it over the weekend  and let them know Monday lunchtime

Monday morning your trade-in brand announces a B400,000 price reduction Will the dealer still agree to Friday deal knowing that if they do there going to take a serious hit or are they more likely to say Friday trade-in offer has ended and then offer you a new trade-in taking into account the B400,000 price reduction

Likewise you see your dream car on a friday but it only available in a colour that your 50/50 over the dream car is priced at B1.7 million baht you place a deposit of B5,000 over the weekend shock and horror the brand reduces the price by B400,000 you go into the dealer on Monday that your order should have the price reduction to it dealer says sorry can't do your order has been placed in the system and nothing they can do

Would you keep your existing order or would you cancel even if you lose your deposit of B5,000 if you cancel and you lose your deposit your still be B395,000 better off

 

 

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6 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Your thinking of trading up you have seen your dream car 0-100 km in 0.1 seconds your offered a reasonable good price for your trading in on the Friday  you tell the dealer that your think about it over the weekend  and let them know Monday lunchtime

Monday morning your trade-in brand announces a B400,000 price reduction Will the dealer still agree to Friday deal knowing that if they do there going to take a serious hit or are they more likely to say Friday trade-in offer has ended and then offer you a new trade-in taking into account the B400,000 price reduction

Likewise you see your dream car on a friday but it only available in a colour that your 50/50 over the dream car is priced at B1.7 million baht you place a deposit of B5,000 over the weekend shock and horror the brand reduces the price by B400,000 you go into the dealer on Monday that your order should have the price reduction to it dealer says sorry can't do your order has been placed in the system and nothing they can do

Would you keep your existing order or would you cancel even if you lose your deposit of B5,000 if you cancel and you lose your deposit your still be B395,000 better off

 

 

 

I canceled my Cyberster order because of all this price cutting.  I prefer to reassess the price in 18 months to 2 years.

 

When we talk about depreciation, to say whether (in general) EV's depreciate faster, let's take the example of an MG EP+.

 

At time of launch 998k, price for the last 2 years 768k.

 

In my view, you can only base the "EV's in general" deprecation on the lower RRP, that tells you what happens to EV's in general.

 

I see the 768k price as the real price and the 998k as the manufacturer trying to profiteer at introduction.

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6 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I canceled my Cyberster order because of all this price cutting.  I prefer to reassess the price in 18 months to 2 years.

 

When we talk about depreciation, to say whether (in general) EV's depreciate faster, let's take the example of an MG EP+.

 

At time of launch 998k, price for the last 2 years 768k.

 

In my view, you can only base the "EV's in general" deprecation on the lower RRP, that tells you what happens to EV's in general.

 

I see the 768k price as the real price and the 998k as the manufacturer trying to profiteer at introduction.

You are both right. You are talking depreciation and Vinny is calculating lost value. Although they are not the same, most people will generally put a big fat equal between the two.

Inflation also play a factor, we just got so used to the last 10 years of low interest rate and near zero inflation. 

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Posted (edited)

Someone, anyone, point out a better car, ICEV at these or close to these 2 price points.   I can't think of one.   These are real prices, and are available now at MG dealers.   Confirmed in person today at MG.  MSRP 949k with rolling sale price 829k.

 

Prices below, while supplies last.  Guess getting rid of stock before 2025s arrive.

 

MG ZS EV ... LFP Battery chemistry, 177 hp / 280 Nm torque 👍

 

image.png.0a61ab45054ca2cb5fda2eda4ed5522a.png

 

Don't want a SUV (BYDs also available, too lazy to look)

 

image.png.e1ebfbd2739f01e9863fd16e22a87220.png

 

Prefer a Hybrid (HEV)  although PHEV a better choice IMHO

 

image.png.a6d22c1cd9eb3e1827d1877a4d508e31.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by KhunLA
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13 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I canceled my Cyberster order because of all this price cutting.  I prefer to reassess the price in 18 months to 2 years.

 

When we talk about depreciation, to say whether (in general) EV's depreciate faster, let's take the example of an MG EP+.

 

At time of launch 998k, price for the last 2 years 768k.

 

In my view, you can only base the "EV's in general" deprecation on the lower RRP, that tells you what happens to EV's in general.

 

I see the 768k price as the real price and the 998k as the manufacturer trying to profiteer at introduction.

The MG EP+  Was launched November 2020 with a price of B998,000 the price reduction only occurred as a result of the EV 3.0 subsidy that started March 2022

MG EP normal price: 988,000 baht with a state subsidy of 227,000 baht. Net price: 761,000 baht*

MG EP PLUS normal price: 998,000 baht with a state subsidy of 227,000 baht. Net price 771,000 baht*

so in this case MG didn't reduce the price Thai Goverment said for every car you sell we will pay you B227,000

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

The MG EP+  Was launched November 2020 with a price of B998,000 the price reduction only occurred as a result of the EV 3.0 subsidy that started March 2022

MG EP normal price: 988,000 baht with a state subsidy of 227,000 baht. Net price: 761,000 baht*

MG EP PLUS normal price: 998,000 baht with a state subsidy of 227,000 baht. Net price 771,000 baht*

so in this case MG didn't reduce the price Thai Goverment said for every car you sell we will pay you B227,000

That's before they had competition and steady sales.  BYD took a big bite out of that, so now have reduced some models, ICEV & EVs.   Surprised not the EP+ although was quite the bargain, till late.  Don't think they've discounted the ES either, which is a bit overpriced IMHO.   VS & HS, rarely discounted, and minimal.

 

2025 is going to be very interesting for new car shoppers.  New options, specs, and a bit of a price war, I think.   The auto show should be a trip :cheesy:

Edited by KhunLA
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10 hours ago, vinny41 said:

The MG EP+  Was launched November 2020 with a price of B998,000 the price reduction only occurred as a result of the EV 3.0 subsidy that started March 2022

MG EP normal price: 988,000 baht with a state subsidy of 227,000 baht. Net price: 761,000 baht*

MG EP PLUS normal price: 998,000 baht with a state subsidy of 227,000 baht. Net price 771,000 baht*

so in this case MG didn't reduce the price Thai Goverment said for every car you sell we will pay you B227,000

 

 

The state subsidy is only 150,000 baht, MG chipped in with a further 77,000 baht contribution.

 

Currently I believe the state subsidy is 100,000 baht and MG chip in with a further 127,000 baht.

 

I don't believe any of these subsidised cars will increase in price when the subsidy ends, I think they have been profiteering.

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25 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

The state subsidy is only 150,000 baht, MG chipped in with a further 77,000 baht contribution.

 

Currently I believe the state subsidy is 100,000 baht and MG chip in with a further 127,000 baht.

 

I don't believe any of these subsidised cars will increase in price when the subsidy ends, I think they have been profiteering.

I don't believe they were profiteering as it doesn't make sense for them  to chip in for B77,000 under EV 3.0 and B127,000 under EV 3.5

I suspect that these cars will be EOL before EV 3.5 ends 

I think next year the replacement for MG ZS EV BEV  will be the MG S5 

https://carnewschina.com/2024/07/12/new-all-electric-mg-s5-suv-in-surprise-listing-exports-likely/

and that the MG ZS will either be renamed or carry out as hybrid only

 

 

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57 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I don't believe they were profiteering as it doesn't make sense for them  to chip in for B77,000 under EV 3.0 and B127,000 under EV 3.5

I suspect that these cars will be EOL before EV 3.5 ends 

I think next year the replacement for MG ZS EV BEV  will be the MG S5 

https://carnewschina.com/2024/07/12/new-all-electric-mg-s5-suv-in-surprise-listing-exports-likely/

and that the MG ZS will either be renamed or carry out as hybrid only

Considering the price difference of the cars in TH vs CH, they're making a tidy profit.  MG not so much, as ZS not that much cheaper in CH.

 

Which added to another reason I bought it.  Prices will probably remain the same, when subsidies end, as production costs have come down considerably, or so we read.

 

Advantage BYD, since they make their batteries, where others have to buy from BYD or CATL.

 

It's going to be a tight, competitive market, with many going for market share & exposure instead of profits.  Guessing after a couple years, many aren't going to make it.

 

Again, another reason for going with MG, well established in CH & TH.  BYD also will have no problem, as the reality, BEVs is actually just a side line for them.  Turning into a very nice one.

 

After they capture their market share and knock out the competition, then we'll see price increases, or even less cost to produce, and the profits for them will be there, and no real need for price increases.  

 

I think the price war will be short lived next year, and especially after the subsidies expire.  As long as they're selling, why bother with any price decreases.

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On 8/27/2024 at 9:56 AM, KhunLA said:

Considering the price difference of the cars in TH vs CH, they're making a tidy profit.  MG not so much, as ZS not that much cheaper in CH.

 

Which added to another reason I bought it.  Prices will probably remain the same, when subsidies end, as production costs have come down considerably, or so we read.

 

Advantage BYD, since they make their batteries, where others have to buy from BYD or CATL.

 

It's going to be a tight, competitive market, with many going for market share & exposure instead of profits.  Guessing after a couple years, many aren't going to make it.

 

Again, another reason for going with MG, well established in CH & TH.  BYD also will have no problem, as the reality, BEVs is actually just a side line for them.  Turning into a very nice one.

 

After they capture their market share and knock out the competition, then we'll see price increases, or even less cost to produce, and the profits for them will be there, and no real need for price increases.  

 

I think the price war will be short lived next year, and especially after the subsidies expire.  As long as they're selling, why bother with any price decreases.

Automotive Brands tend to price their vehicles on what they believe the local market will bear

There has been a couple of Brands in Thailand that their marketing team have got their pricing wrong and have had to rejusted their pricing downwards after 2-3 months from launch

mg zs ev current model in the UK starts around £30,500 or B1.37 million

or today pricing if the onlly additional cost was 10% import duty you could buy 2 in Thailand pay the 10% import tax and still have B50k in your pocket

price war will last while their is oversupply more vehicles built than customers wanting to buy

next year will be interesting with 490,000 Thai built EV on the market if we assume 140,000 of those for the domestic market that means 350,000 for export but to where

Byd Thailand and MG Thailand will be up against Byd China and MG China in pricing and I don't expect the Chinese exporters to hand over their sales to their Thai counterparts without a fight

 

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7 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

One for you Hydro fans 

 

 

Lol, no it's not. Sam Evans is an electric car fanboy. He's a total nobody, has never worked in the auto-industry and his sole claim to fame is being a Youtuber.

 

More anti hydrogen car drivel which is divorced from reality. What EV fan boys like Sam Evans fail to realise is that it's not just Toyota, but BMW, Hyundai, Kawasaki, Yamaha and others who are spending billions on the hydrogen engine. Their factories are already being subsidised by governments like the UK. 

 

One of the worst videos I have ever seen. On the one hand he claims new hydrogen ICE motor technology is revolutionary and incredibly efficient and on the other that the ICE is finished. Either hydrogen ICEs will come or the ICE is finished, it can't be both Sam Evans you pitiful fool.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

One for you Hydro fans 

 

 

 

If it is truly 60% efficient, then that is as efficient as the most efficient HFCEV so you might as well stick with Fuel-Cell.

 

9 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Lol, no it's not. Sam Evans is an electric car fanboy. He's a total nobody, has never worked in the auto-industry and his sole claim to fame is being a Youtuber.

 

More anti hydrogen car drivel which is divorced from reality. What EV fan boys like Sam Evans fail to realise is that it's not just Toyota, but BMW, Hyundai, Kawasaki, Yamaha and others who are spending billions on the hydrogen engine. Their factories are already being subsidised by governments like the UK. 

 

One of the worst videos I have ever seen. On the one hand he claims new hydrogen ICE motor technology is revolutionary and incredibly efficient and on the other that the ICE is finished. Either hydrogen ICEs will come or the ICE is finished, it can't be both Sam Evans you pitiful fool.

 

 

 

Where are all these wonderful Hydrogen cars?  Too little too late.  Whilst I do think we might see some Hydrogen Cars, they will be fuel cell, sold along side BEV's and market dynamics (cost, supply & demand) will take care of the rest.

 

You should read the McKinsey report, here is it what says about mobility...

 

By 2040, clean hydrogen could play a larger role in new applications—especially in mobility, which is expected to be the largest “newcomer” for clean hydrogen demand by 2040 in the Further Acceleration scenario. Applications could range from fuel cell electric vehicles in long-haul, heavy-duty trucking to synthetic kerosene in aviation. 

Global Energy Perspective 2023: Hydrogen outlook | McKinsey

 

Whilst there is expected to be some long distance hydrogen transport, passenger cars are expected to continue to be BEV's, they are here to stay are here to stay.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Lol, no it's not. Sam Evans is an electric car fanboy. He's a total nobody, has never worked in the auto-industry and his sole claim to fame is being a Youtuber.

 

More anti hydrogen car drivel which is divorced from reality. What EV fan boys like Sam Evans fail to realise is that it's not just Toyota, but BMW, Hyundai, Kawasaki, Yamaha and others who are spending billions on the hydrogen engine. Their factories are already being subsidised by governments like the UK. 

 

One of the worst videos I have ever seen. On the one hand he claims new hydrogen ICE motor technology is revolutionary and incredibly efficient and on the other that the ICE is finished. Either hydrogen ICEs will come or the ICE is finished, it can't be both Sam Evans you pitiful fool.

Actually it can be both, ICEVs are on borrowed time.  Unless becoming more efficient and less polluting, their extinction is inevitable.   And bragging about 60%, that's laughable also.

 

Doubt if we'll ever see mass produce hydro personal cars.  Maybe long haul trucks, but, need a network of stations for any large countries, such as USA, Canada, China, India, Australia

 

EV fanboy ... yes, as doesn't take much to see what is and will win.   Hydro cars and R&D is about 30 years old, and has failed miserably so far.   EVs are progressing every month.

 

Nobody has to work in the auto industry to see that.  

Edited by KhunLA
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4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

If it is truly 60% efficient, then that is as efficient as the most efficient HFCEV so you might as well stick with Fuel-Cell.

 

 

Of course not because Hydrogen cars would have a significant number of advantages over Bevs.

 

 

Quote

Where are all these wonderful Hydrogen cars?

 

Oh don't worry, they will come in the millions. Just a question of time.

Edited by Cameroni
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4 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

Not at all, if the Hydrogen ICE comes, the ICE will survive, albeit in somewhat modified form.

 

 

You just don't know all the cutting edge research on hydrogen cars, that's being done in universities and car manufacturers, that's hardly surprising.

 

As for EV's progressing every month, well not according to Goldman Sachs: So 

 

"Sales momentum for electric vehicles (EVs) is slowing globally, and hybrids (HEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) are proving more competitive than first thought."

 

 

"For one, we’re seeing rising concerns around EV capital costs due to lower prices being realized for used EVs. In the UK, for example, EV used car prices have fallen sharply in recent months. Two, uncertainty around a number of elections this year has decreased visibility on potential changes to government policies affecting the EV industry.

The third and final concern is around a shortage of rapid-charging stations. As EV penetration accelerates, rapid charging station infrastructure issues have emerged as a tangible problem. Several automakers have said that concerns about driving range and charging infrastructure are increasing. These issues may lead consumers to have second thoughts about buying an EV."

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-are-ev-sales-slowing

 

So electric cars clearly on the decline, hybrids on the up and hydrogen cars the next big thing.

 

 

 

 

Total clap-trap.

 

This market segment is foreseen to display a compound annual growth rate (CAGR 2024-2029) of 8.56%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$51.3bn by 2029.

 

Electric Vehicles - UK | Statista Market Forecast  (updated this month).

 

 

Temp1.png

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