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ICE vs EV, the debate thread


KhunLA

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42 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:


More clap-trap

 

Of course, Goldman Sachs' research is "clap trap", because they pointed out how the sales figures for BEVs are declining, and the reasons for this, I presume? Or why would the pre-eminent financial analysts in the world be defamed in this way?

 

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Electrified vehicle uptake continued to grow robustly in June, with plug-in hybrid (PHEV) volumes up 30.0% to reach a 9.3% market share, while hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) rose 27.2% to achieve 14.9% of the market. Both powertrains also outpaced battery electric vehicle growth (BEV), which rose 7.4% but took its highest monthly share this year, accounting for 19.0% of all new vehicle registrations.

The UK’s zero emission transition – and the ability of manufacturers to meet the requirements of the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme – currently relies on the fleet sector as private consumer uptake continues to soften. Private BEV uptake has fallen -10.8% year to date, with fewer than one in five new BEVs going to private buyers. Overall, BEVs now comprise 16.6% of the new car market so far this year, slightly above the 16.1% achieved in the same period last year, with uptake behind the levels mandated by government.

https://media.smmt.co.uk/june-2024-new-car-registrations/

Edited by vinny41
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30 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Electrified vehicle uptake continued to grow robustly in June, with plug-in hybrid (PHEV) volumes up 30.0% to reach a 9.3% market share, while hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) rose 27.2% to achieve 14.9% of the market. Both powertrains also outpaced battery electric vehicle growth (BEV), which rose 7.4% but took its highest monthly share this year, accounting for 19.0% of all new vehicle registrations.

The UK’s zero emission transition – and the ability of manufacturers to meet the requirements of the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme – currently relies on the fleet sector as private consumer uptake continues to soften. Private BEV uptake has fallen -10.8% year to date, with fewer than one in five new BEVs going to private buyers. Overall, BEVs now comprise 16.6% of the new car market so far this year, slightly above the 16.1% achieved in the same period last year, with uptake behind the levels mandated by government.

https://media.smmt.co.uk/june-2024-new-car-registrations/


We have previously debunked that the sales are all going to fleet buyers.

 

Because of the way some private buyers finance their cars, they are registered to fleet companies and get reported as fleet customers.

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1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

 

Of course, Goldman Sachs' research is "clap trap", because they pointed out how the sales figures for BEVs are declining, and the reasons for this, I presume? Or why would the pre-eminent financial analysts in the world be defamed in this way?

 


I understand you would like this to be true, but the fact is the opposite is true.

 

I’m sorry, but I don’t hold Goldman Sachs in anywhere near the high regard you do

.

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8 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:


We have previously debunked that the sales are all going to fleet buyers.

 

Because of the way some private buyers finance their cars, they are registered to fleet companies and get reported as fleet customers.

You should start and EV "FactChecker" website. I think BYD might be hiring...

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19 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:


We have previously debunked that the sales are all going to fleet buyers.

 

Because of the way some private buyers finance their cars, they are registered to fleet companies and get reported as fleet customers.

Clearly the SMMT doesn't believe you

Hence they are campaigning for VAT cut for private EV consumers

For Businesses its a no-brainer 

Accountant  tells you your liable for a huge tax bill or you can write off the entire bill by buying an EV 

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4 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

No, what I said is the truth, Goldman Sachs have the best financial analysts on the planet. And you instead relying on Statista, says more about you than Goldman Sachs, frankly.

Your joking right.

 

Here's some not so lite reading for you.  Goldman Sacks wiki 

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11 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

https://www.uhy-uk.com/insights/uk-electric-vehicle-sales-statistics-so-far-2024

 

In June 2024, 34,034 new electric cars registered, which is 19% of all new car registrations. The total market share for new cars registered with a plug (either fully electric or PHEV) stands at an impressive 28.3%.

Clap-trap talk for the UK auto industry rhat is in termal decline.

Luckily commen sense is more prevalent on the continent. 

 

According to the KBA—Germany’s federal motor transport authority—registrations for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) dropped by 37% to 30,762 cars in July 2024 compared to the same month in 2023. It is the largest decline since December 2023, when the German government ended EV subsidies. 

Mobility Sweden reported that electric vehicle sales dropped last month by 15% year over year. Meanwhile, in Switzerland, EV sales fell by 19% year over year. 

 

https://www.teslarati.com/europe-electric-vehicle-sales-july-2024

 

 

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43 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Clap-trap talk for the UK auto industry rhat is in termal decline.

Luckily commen sense is more prevalent on the continent. 

 

According to the KBA—Germany’s federal motor transport authority—registrations for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) dropped by 37% to 30,762 cars in July 2024 compared to the same month in 2023. It is the largest decline since December 2023, when the German government ended EV subsidies. 

Mobility Sweden reported that electric vehicle sales dropped last month by 15% year over year. Meanwhile, in Switzerland, EV sales fell by 19% year over year. 

 

https://www.teslarati.com/europe-electric-vehicle-sales-july-2024

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, josephbloggs said:


How are your cherries doing? All sales are down, ICE and EV.

From your link:

However, the order for all-electric VW vehicles increased by 124% in West Europe. This increase suggests that more Europeans are transitioning to electric vehicles. 

You really should read the whole article before you post the link, it would stop you looking silly.
 

And from your second link "luxury" EV sales are down from the legacy auto makers, because they are overpriced rubbish.

 

The general consensus is that there is a demand for more affordable EVs, which automakers are striving to launch.

Nearly all major automakers in the EV market have unveiled plans for affordable electric vehicles starting around $25,000. Tesla has the Model 2 or Model Q EV coming out, which has yet to be unveiled. Earlier this year, Volkswagen shared plans for a new EV under €25,000.

However, it will still take some time before affordable EVs hit the road. A few legacy automakers have turned to hybrids to boost sales until they launch more affordable electric vehicles.

 

Now in EOW and transam style, here are some childish emojis.  🍒🍒🍒🍒

Haven't seen the old troll for a while, did he finally get banned?



 

 

Here's some more from your link.....

 

That is the problem with Bloomberg reporting. Title says Europe EV sale drop further, but what happened in Germany does not represent all Europe. They cherry pick the outliners to support their agenda. We know since the beginning of the year, EV sale dropped in Germany because of the incentives removal. They pick the worst counties in Europe in EV sale. From Jan to June, EU & EFTA & UK actually had 1% increase over last year. US and China also increase this year. Just for common sense, if you want to look into whole Europe EV trend, you should at least start with the largest EV markets and the overall number.

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South Koreans hit the brakes on EVs after battery fires

Several electric vehicle fires in South Korea have dented sales as buyers worry about potential battery hazards. 

 

A series of headline-grabbing car fires in South Korea are driving distrust of electric vehicles (EVs), in what local media have dubbed "EV-phobia."

 

South Korean officials met last week to discuss vehicle safety, and called on all car manufacturers to increase transparency and name their battery suppliers.

 

On August 1, a Mercedes-Benz EV caught fire in the underground parking lot of an apartment complex in the city of Incheon. It took firefighters more than eight hours to extinguish the blaze. Twenty-three people required hospital treatment, around 140 vehicles were damaged, and 1,600 homes were affected by electricity and water outages for a week.

 

In separate incident several days later, a Kia EV6 burned out in a parking tower in South Chungcheong Province, with the blaze lasting more than 90 minutes before it could be brought under control.  

 

The cause of both fires is believed to have been the vehicles' batteries.

 

According to South Korea's National Fire Agency, there were 72 EV-related fires in 2023, up from 24 in 2021. Of the 130 incidents reported in the last three years, 68 vehicles caught fire while their engines were running, 36 while parked and 26 as they were being charged.

 

Chinese-made batteries in focus 

Much of the public concern is focused on the Chinese-made batteries that many auto manufacturers now use in their vehicles.

 

The Mercedes-Benz that caught fire in Incheon was fitted with a battery made by Farasis Energy, a little-known Chinese company.

 

"These are not isolated cases as there have been a series of similar fires in electric vehicles in recent months," said Song Young-chae, a South Korean professor of environmental engineering who lives in Seoul. 

 

"After seeing the Incheon fire on television, I think people are worried and more reluctant than ever to buy an electric vehicle," he told DW.

 

Consumers remain wary 

Despite the price cuts, the newspaper reported that the number of newly registered EVs in South Korea fell 13.4% in the seven months from January from the same period one year earlier.

 

Lee Eun-koo, who works for an NGO in Seoul, said she has been trying to convince her sister not to go ahead with plans to purchase an EV.

 

"She seems keen to go ahead because they are better for the environment, but I have to ask how safe they are because of these fires," she told DW. "I am hoping I can talk her out of it."

Park Jung-won, a professor of international Law at Dankook University, is similarly reluctant to trade in his conventional car for an EV.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/south-koreans-hit-the-brakes-on-evs-after-battery-fires/a-69978616#:~:text=A series of headline-grabbing,and name their battery suppliers.

 

So in South Korea too, registrations for EVs are down, and unlike what people on here claim, it's not about price, there are clearly more fundamental reasons, to do with range and car safety which put most people off of buying an EV.

 

Edited by Cameroni
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6 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Absolute rubbish. Your pal KhunLA keeps reposting ads for brandnew EVs that are cheaper than second hand petrol cars but they can't give them away. There are no takers. For the simple reason that many have understood that EVs lack the proper infrastructure to charge them still, so range continues to be an issue with EVs.

 

So even when they're sold at ludicrously low prices the uptake for EVs is in decline. Because  most people don't want them.

It’s true that some people don’t want them. Personally, I don’t understand why. I can understand that for some people, it’s not a practical choice as they might not have access to home charging and/or they have to make frequent long distance trips on a schedule. That does not mean they don’t want an EV, just that an EV is not suitable for them. Or it could be that they live in a backward country out west that has poor and unreliable yet ridiculously expensive public charging.

 

Everyday, I see brand new red plated EVs on the roads in Chiang Mai. I see more and more EV dealerships sprouting up all over the place. Seems to me that, for the people of CM at least, range doesn’t seem to be an issue. I easily do 100 km a day regularly. I’d imagine that this is more than what most regular road users do.

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Just now, Cameroni said:

 

I quite agree, in a city such as Chiang Mai an EV with a lower range can make sense for some people. But what is your view on the battery fires that keep happening with electric cars that have put people off of EVs in South Korea?

 

EV's are approximately 12 times less likely to catch fire than an ICE.  It is true to say that when it does happen it's more of a serious problem.  I see it as a logistical problem, car parks need to be more prepared with fire blankets for example.

 

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4 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

EV's are approximately 12 times less likely to catch fire than an ICE.  It is true to say that when it does happen it's more of a serious problem.  I see it as a logistical problem, car parks need to be more prepared with fire blankets for example.

 


In nearly all these news reports it is NMC batteries. In Korea it was a Merc EQE and a Kia V6, both have NMC batteries. I definitely wouldn't buy an NMC powered EV (not only for that reason).  LFP just seems so much less volatile.

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1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

 

.....

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-66866327

 

However, the statement that fires with EV cars are less likely may not be true.

 

The article above also shows the problem in recoding car fires statistically, since almost no local authority distinguishes between EV and petrol cars, they record just "car fires". So the true extent of the issue with EV car fires is not really known, and the studies saying fires with EV cars are less likely are therefore not using appropriate data.

 

This will change as the regional and state authorities will start to distinguish between EV and petrol car fires.

 

 

I have cut the bit of your post I agree with and want to focus on the BBC link.

 

The statistics I have read on EV fires were compiled in the USA and Sweden.

 

The BBC article says the UK doesn't compile statistics, so it's a non-article.

 

We currently have 2 EV's in my household, they are both LFP chemistry which is much safer.  I have had a car with NMC chemistry, knowing what I do now, I would be more concerned with NMC and would probably keep it under my carport instead of the houses integral garage and I would buy LFP if there was a choice.

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24 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

I quite agree, in a city such as Chiang Mai an EV with a lower range can make sense for some people. But what is your view on the battery fires that keep happening with electric cars that have put people off of EVs in South Korea?

Not just Chiang Mai but it makes sense in many Thai cities, such as Bangkok, Korat, Pattaya, Khon Kaen etc etc where traffic is a nightmare. EVs really come into their own in stop start traffic.

 

Regarding EV fires, yes, this is a definite concern. Empirical data suggests that NMC batteries are much less stable than LFP batteries which is why the majority of new EVs are now fitted with the latter. However, everything in life comes with a risk, from flying to eating a meal. There was a recent case where a man tried to kill himself and his family by driving his Tesla off a cliff. It didn’t catch fire. 

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8 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

 

The BBC article says the UK doesn't compile statistics, so it's a non-article.

 

 

You seem to have issues understanding sentences sometimes. Here is a quote from that article:

 

He says Essex fire service has started recording all lithium battery fires by type so that it can better understand the issues they pose and to help plan for the future.

When the BBC raised the issue of fire services not recording EV fires specifically, a Home Office spokesperson said: "We are reviewing the incident reporting system and considering the collection of data on fires involving lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, e-scooters and e-bikes."

 

What exactly this means for fire services is unclear, however - not least because of the paucity of available data.

 

When the BBC asked every fire service in the UK how many EV fires they had dealt with in the past three years, most could not provide a reliable answer because they do not distinguish them from other types of vehicle fires.

 

Instead, some fire services, such as those in Norfolk, Essex, Surrey, Derbyshire and Kent, ran text searches for any reference to the word "electric" in their vehicle fire records.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-66866327

 

So the UK does compile statistics on car fires, and some authorities have begun to distinguish between EV and petrol car fires, however, most authorities still do not.

 

Since the UK is a developed country this will be the case in most other countries.

 

I have seen the studies you refer to which claim that EV cars have less fires than petrol cars, but since we can see above that the data collecting car fires is not reliable, those studies equally are not reliable.

Edited by Cameroni
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2 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

You seem to have issues understanding sentences sometimes. Here is a quote from that article:

 

He says Essex fire service has started recording all lithium battery fires by type so that it can better understand the issues they pose and to help plan for the future.

When the BBC raised the issue of fire services not recording EV fires specifically, a Home Office spokesperson said: "We are reviewing the incident reporting system and considering the collection of data on fires involving lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, e-scooters and e-bikes."

 

What exactly this means for fire services is unclear, however - not least because of the paucity of available data.

 

When the BBC asked every fire service in the UK how many EV fires they had dealt with in the past three years, most could not provide a reliable answer because they do not distinguish them from other types of vehicle fires.

 

Instead, some fire services, such as those in Norfolk, Essex, Surrey, Derbyshire and Kent, ran text searches for any reference to the word "electric" in their vehicle fire records.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-66866327

 

So the UK does compile statistics on car fires, and some authorities have begun to distinguish between EV and petrol car fires, however, most authorities still do not.

 

Since the UK is a developed country this will be the case in most other countries.

 

I have seen the studies you refer to which claim that EV cars have less fires than petrol cars, but since we can see above that the data collecting car fires is not reliable, those studies equally are not reliable.

 

Nonsense.  

 

You can't see because the UK hasn't yet collected data but is now starting to then all other countries data is unreliable,

 

The whole UK post is spurious.

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