ICE vs EV, the debate thread

[KhunLA]

16 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Perhaps they pay for themselves?  At this point it is a guess.  

My calculations definitely proved to me, they'll pay for themselves way before the 8 yr warranty expires.  E85 has risen 60% since those calculations, so ROI is even faster.

 

EV is a no brainer ... IF ... you don't mind the additional cost now, know you'll keep the car for long time, and if doing out & abouts, don't mind driving slower than usual, or making multiple charging stops on longer legs of your journey.

 

I'm on the fence at the moment, no inventory coming to July or Nov anyway for some models.  Plenty of time to mull it over.  I do believe my driving habits are changing, so I'll probably wait till end of 2022 or 2023 as got a few pressing things going on at the moment, financially.

 

Balancing, I simply want, with do I really need, and the practicality of it.  

[Longwood50]

On 1/10/2022 at 6:21 PM, 2009 said:

Ever heard of the sun?

Yes, and do you know The toxic chemicals in solar panels include cadmium telluride, copper indium selenide, cadmium gallium (di)selenide, copper indium gallium (di)selenide, hexafluoroethane, lead, and polyvinyl fluoride. Additionally, silicon tetrachloride, a byproduct of producing crystalline silicon, is highly toxic.

At present there is a huge bias not to recycle a solar panel.  

With the current capacity, it costs an estimated $20-30 to recycle one panel. Sending that same panel to a landfill would cost a mere $1-2. The direct cost of recycling is only part of the end-of-life burden.  In a landfill it leaves the toxic chemicals to leach into the soil.  So "clean" hardly. 

[Yellowtail]

8 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

It is not just the cost of the replacement.  If a current Tesla gets lets say 400 KM to a charge and 10 years from now a new Tesla gets 1,000 who will want the ten year old Tesla at any price. 

 

The same people that buy ten-year old cars today. 

 

As far as range, the batteries will likely improve (at least somewhat) over the next ten years which should extend the range of the old vehicles as well. 

 

The Tesla battery warranty is not that great if you read it. 

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

My calculations definitely proved to me, they'll pay for themselves way before the 8 yr warranty expires. 

Buying the electricity to charge at market rate? 

 

Have you read the warranty? 

[Longwood50]

6 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

My calculations definitely proved to me, they'll pay for themselves way before the 8 yr warranty expires.

Perhaps but here is what Forbes said.  It also said that the cost effectiveness of an electric car depends on assumptions on fuel/electricity in the future. Whether you drive in the city, or mostly highway.  That EV efficienty goes down much more rapidly than an gas power car on hilly terrain and in cold temperatures. 

A 10 year old BMW ICE still has residual value.  I question how much residual value there will be in a 10 year old Tesla given the expense of the battery replacement and the likelihood that newer generation electric cars will likely prove so much more efficient as to render them worthless.  If that is true, the person must factor in the near total loss in value of the original purchase price of a car.  I know this for sure.  I purchased a Lexus RX 400H and paid $10,000 more for it than the identical ICE RX350 SUV.  4 years later the resale value of the hybrid was exactly the same as the gas model and I got no better mileage.  So was the investment worth it.  Absolutely not. 

[KhunLA]

17 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Just because people don't think they are the be-all-end-all does not mean they are against them.

Agree, but more than few members here are simply anti EV, for no practical reason, and use some of the silliest excuses not to own on.

 

Along with Thai & Chinese anything bashing.  I just consider the source & ignore them.

[KhunLA]

5 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Perhaps but here is what Forbes said.  It also said that the cost effectiveness of an electric car depends on assumptions on fuel/electricity in the future. Whether you drive in the city, or mostly highway.  That EV efficienty goes down much more rapidly than an gas power car on hilly terrain and in cold temperatures. 

A 10 year old BMW ICE still has residual value.  I question how much residual value there will be in a 10 year old Tesla given the expense of the battery replacement and the likelihood that newer generation electric cars will likely prove so much more efficient as to render them worthless.  If that is true, the person must factor in the near total loss in value of the original purchase price of a car.  I know this for sure.  I purchased a Lexus RX 400H and paid $10,000 more for it than the identical ICE RX350 SUV.  4 years later the resale value of the hybrid was exactly the same as the gas model and I got no better mileage.  So was the investment worth it.  Absolutely not. 

Don't care what Forbes thinks, as I know what I know are facts.  And I'm in Thailand, so any other country, is very irrelevant.

 

I'll also use solar 99% of the time for charging, if owning an EV.

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Perhaps but here is what Forbes said.  It also said that the cost effectiveness of an electric car depends on assumptions on fuel/electricity in the future. Whether you drive in the city, or mostly highway.  That EV efficienty goes down much more rapidly than an gas power car on hilly terrain and in cold temperatures. 

A 10 year old BMW ICE still has residual value.  I question how much residual value there will be in a 10 year old Tesla given the expense of the battery replacement and the likelihood that newer generation electric cars will likely prove so much more efficient as to render them worthless.  If that is true, the person must factor in the near total loss in value of the original purchase price of a car.  I know this for sure.  I purchased a Lexus RX 400H and paid $10,000 more for it than the identical ICE RX350 SUV.  4 years later the resale value of the hybrid was exactly the same as the gas model and I got no better mileage.  So was the investment worth it.  Absolutely not. 

You don't have to wonder what a ten year old Tesla is worth:

 

 

5 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

So after 10 years the Tesla cost of ownership is less than a similarly prices BMW330i, yes? 

 

[Longwood50]

9 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

As far as range, the batteries will likely improve (at least somewhat) over the next ten years which should extend the range of the old vehicles as well. 

Perhaps, but that is an assumption.  I would think that future advances in EV cars are from a combination of improved batteries and improved efficiencies of other technologies incorporated into the car.  

Even assuming that the "new" batteries can be incorporated into a 10 year old car it would mean that the old car would only be receiving the benefits of the improved battery and not other advancements in the new EV. 

One thing is for sure. Here is what Kelly Blue Book says a 10 year old Chevy Volt is worth.  They originally sold with a MSRP of just over $40,000 USD.  

[Yellowtail]

7 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Agree, but more than few members here are simply anti EV, for no practical reason, and use some of the silliest excuses not to own on.

 

Along with Thai & Chinese anything bashing.  I just consider the source & ignore them.

I know I am always attacked in this thread as anti-EV and I am anything but. 

[Longwood50]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

So after 10 years the Tesla cost of ownership is less than a similarly prices BMW330i, yes? 

Again, not my calculations.  But rather a very renowned financial magazine calclulated that the TESLA was slightly more expensive over 5 years. 

Here is another question.  Is that 10 year old TESLA value before or after a battery replacement?  If it is afterwards you have to factor in the $15,000 to $20,000 that someone had to pay to extend the life of the car. 

[KhunLA]

6 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Perhaps, but that is an assumption.  I would think that future advances in EV cars are from a combination of improved batteries and improved efficiencies of other technologies incorporated into the car.  

Even assuming that the "new" batteries can be incorporated into a 10 year old car it would mean that the old car would only be receiving the benefits of the improved battery and not other advancements in the new EV. 

One thing is for sure. Here is what Kelly Blue Book says a 10 year old Chevy Volt is worth.  They originally sold with a MSRP of just over $40,000 USD.  

Volt was a total joke, and shouldn't even be mentioned in any intelligent conversation about any cars. ????

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Volt was a total joke, and shouldn't even be mentioned in any intelligent conversation about any cars. ????

I agree but I will humbly point out that electric cars preceded ICE.

 

https://wisdombiscuits.com/which-came-first-the-electric-car-or-the-gasoline-car/

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Perhaps, but that is an assumption.  I would think that future advances in EV cars are from a combination of improved batteries and improved efficiencies of other technologies incorporated into the car.  

So it's okay for you to make the assumption that the range will double, but it's not okay for me to make an assumption

improvements in battery technology will likely extend the range of older cars as well? How about a little intellectual honesty. There is no reason to think new battery technology will extend the range of older vehicles.

 

2 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Even assuming that the "new" batteries can be incorporated into a 10 year old car it would mean that the old car would only be receiving the benefits of the improved battery and not other advancements in the new EV. 

It is almost certain the new battery technology can be incorporated into a ten year old car. 

 

 

[Yellowtail]

9 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Again, not my calculations.  But rather a very renowned financial magazine calclulated that the TESLA was slightly more expensive over 5 years. 

So they're "...a very renowned financial magazine..." after five years, but a bunch of morons after nine, yes? 

 

9 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Here is another question.  Is that 10 year old TESLA value before or after a battery replacement?  If it is afterwards you have to factor in the $15,000 to $20,000 that someone had to pay to extend the life of the car. 

Before

[KhunLA]

Not sure how one could improve much on electric motors, as they kind of last forever already.

 

Battery tech, weight & cost will be the major changes for EVs.  Range range range seems to be most people's concern.  Grid & availability of charging stations. 

 

No prob in Thailand, but few EVs on the road, so we'll see how sales go, with the increased petrol prices.

 

Definitely motivating me towards an EV, though TBH, at this point, I don't really need one, as the E-motorcycle gets the majority of my everyday kms now.

[Longwood50]

19 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Volt was a total joke, and shouldn't even be mentioned in any intelligent conversation about any cars

Yes it was, and perhaps we will be saying the same thing about the first genration Tesla as well.  

[Longwood50]

19 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

It is almost certain the new battery technology can be incorporated into a ten year old car. 

And did you attend MIT or Cal Tech? 

[KhunLA]

22 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Yes it was, and perhaps we will be saying the same thing about the first genration Tesla as well.  

Owners of Tesla 3 would definitely disagree.  Tesla 2, depending on pricing, may even exceed 3's sales numbers.   Don't know what the 1st gen was, but all new models of anything have their problems.  To be expected actually, why I don't do new.

 

Other tesla models seem to have issues, but only with the options.  As all brands / models have, EV or ICE.  More options, especially electrical, more things go wrong.   Why I prefer not to have options I don't need or will use.

 

Less things to worry about, and makes for a less expensive ride ... win win for us.

[Longwood50]

19 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Before

I would imagine that is a guess.  However I am not sure where you "cherry picked" the resale value of the Tesla at.  However if you go to Kelly Blue Book the private party value of a 2012 Top Model Performance S. is with average mileage and average condition is as follows.  The trade in value is less.  The retail value is irrelevant since you are not a car dealer. 

It is not known if the used car values reflect if the battery pack has been changed.  If it has, the original owner got very little residual value from the 10 year old Tesla.  If it has not, the person paying $18,000 - $20,000 and facing a $20,000 expense to put in a new "high performance" battery pack is crazy.  That would mean the person is paying almost 50% of the cost of a new Tesla for a ten year old car. 

[KhunLA]

31 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

And did you attend MIT or Cal Tech? 

Don't need to attend either.  It's a battery & an electric motor.  Pretty simple stuff.  Unplug, plug in, would think only the physical dimensions would pose an issue, and since newer, would expect smaller & lighter, so not seeing any issue.

[VocalNeal]

Posted 36 minutes ago

  19 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

It is almost certain the new battery technology can be incorporated into a ten year old car. 

42 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

And did you attend MIT or Cal Tech? 

 

[Longwood50]

1 minute ago, KhunLA said:

Owners of Tesla 3 would definitely disagree. 

My point is that I am making an guess that the value of used EV whether Tesla or other brands will depreciate very fast. 

I can't believe that people are going to take a 7 or 10 year old car that requires a very expensive battery replacement without a huge discount.  Since technology is rapidly improving the quality, performance, and range of electric vehicles since the were first generation, I would be surprised if the residual value of them is anything but nominal after 10 years.  

If and I repeat if I am correct a person evaluating if EV are cost effective has to take into account the loss of value.  Also If I have to spend more for an EV lets take an MG ZS.  The top model gas has an MSRP of 799,000 baht.  The EV model is 1,190,000 baht.  So just to get my money back, I have to save enough over 10 years to recoup 391,000 baht.  That says nothing about the "opportunity cost" loss from not having that extra 391,000 invested for ten years.  

So at least for me, I question if electric cars when you add up all the additional costs such as the home charger, and likely battery replacement at 7 - 10 years, the additional MSRP, and the loss of income on the additional cost if a person truly saves. 

So much of this is a "guestimate"  Will petrol prices continue to climb.  Will electric rates stay stable.  Will resale values be strong or weak on used EV's.  

Who knows. I know I won't purchase an all EV vehicle.  Not because of the cost or projected savings but because of the inconvenience of having to put a charger in my home, the lack of charging stations nation wide.  The uncertainty about the dealerships having adequate repair knowledge on EV vehicles, 

I know I don't want to be on a road trip to Phuket from Pattaya and be constantly worried about finding a charging station and then when I do find one having to park there while the car charges. 
 

[Longwood50]

19 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Don't need to attend either.  It's a battery & an electric motor.  Pretty simple stuff.  Unplug, plug in,

[Longwood50]

18 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

Edited 11 minutes ago by VocalNeal

He says that batteries will not be "thrown away"  Again, maybe true but here is what is said about lithium car batteries and recycling. 

 

Are Lithium Car Batteries Recyclable?

Although lithium car batteries are recyclable, it is a costly and energy-intensive process. One significant setback is the modular composition of the battery cells within a battery pack. The cells are welded and glued together with such solidity that breaking them down requires a lot of human or machine power and emits greenhouse gasses along the way.

Most commonly, lithium batteries are recycled in large plants by a process of shredding the whole battery down to a powder. This powder is then either smelted (pyrometallurgy) or dissolved in acid (hydrometallurgy), thereby extracting the individual elements for resale.

 

One problem with this process is that when you remove the scarce, expensive metals like cobalt from the battery, the recycling industry is left with a lower value product to resell. Lithium is so cheap to mine so there’s no incentive to recycle the lithium in car batteries. Ironically, removing controversial elements like cobalt from the battery makes the process less worthwhile for companies that recycle lithium car batteries

[VocalNeal]

32 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

I know I won't purchase an all EV vehicle.

Me neither. 

[KhunLA]

42 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

My point is that I am making an guess that the value of used EV whether Tesla or other brands will depreciate very fast. 

I can't believe that people are going to take a 7 or 10 year old car that requires a very expensive battery replacement without a huge discount. 

 

lets take an MG ZS.  The top model gas has an MSRP of 799,000 baht.  The EV model is 1,190,000 baht.  So just to get my money back, I have to save enough over 10 years to recoup 391,000 baht.  That says nothing about the "opportunity cost" loss from not having that extra 391,000 invested for ten years.  

I know I don't want to be on a road trip to Phuket from Pattaya and be constantly worried about finding a charging station and then when I do find one having to park there while the car charges. 
 

Guess ... nuff said ????   seriously though,

 

7-10 yr old doesn't require a battery replacement.  Maybe a cell or 3, to keep the capacity about 80%.  Watch the vid, cost of driving Tesla 3 for 3 yrs / 75k miles,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSd00383dTE

 

I ran the numbers, and I think ROI would be well worth the extra money with the ZS EV vs ICE. ROI well before 8 yr warranty expired on battery, and still having 80% capacity ... I think.

 

As far as investing the extra, well if that's a concern to the buyer, then they should be buying the Suzuki Celerio, until the can afford a new, more expensive car, without tapping their savings or investment money. 

 

If you're still 'investing' for the future, 'if you can't pay cash, you can't afford it' and shouldn't be buying it .... IMHO, that's common sense, live within your means.  Don't go in debt to drive a car.

 

Final note, yes agree, that's my 1 concern, not charging stations, as plenty of them, but I'm not a patient person, and drive 110-120 kph when possible, and would not enjoy stopping every 200 kms to charge up.  I literally couldn't drive from home to daughter's house in Krung Thep, without charging up, and that's only 275 kms.  So I'm on the fence about getting a BEV.

 

I don't fit in the MG EP's door comfortably (with my back), ZS (ICE) I have and love.  Haven't tried getting in the Ora Good Cat yet, as that has nice specs & GWM perks  come with it.  ZS & Ora are the only ones I would consider, at this point.

 

Wuling or Pocco for around town driving, but that's about the same price, a bit less, than it would cost for me to upgrade to the ZS EV, after selling the ICE version.  So that's a bit silly, though cute little tinker cars.

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, Longwood50 said:

Simply showing your ignorance.  Having my fare share of electric toys, only 2 things really matter, when swapping batteries, voltage & matching connectors.

 

I can swap out batteries on my e-motorcycle & ebike, just has to be the proper voltage, the rest only affect performance and range.  Actually the voltage can be tweaked, but have to change other components, BMS & Controllers, and then you're getting technical.

 

Same with all the drones & RCs I have built.

 

No different than changing a battery in you car.  12v won't work with 6v.

The rest of the specs relate to performance & longevity / range.

 

[Yellowtail]

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

And did you attend MIT or Cal Tech? 

I attended Cal Poly, you? 

[Yellowtail]

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

I would imagine that is a guess.

You started it. 

 

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

However I am not sure where you "cherry picked" the resale value of the Tesla at.

I googled it and it that's what popped up. Is that not want it looked like I did? 

 

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

However if you go to Kelly Blue Book the private party value of a 2012 Top Model Performance S. is with average mileage and average condition is as follows.  The trade in value is less.  The retail value is irrelevant since you are not a car dealer. 

So what is the value? 

 

2 hours ago, Longwood50 said:

It is not known if the used car values reflect if the battery pack has been changed.  If it has, the original owner got very little residual value from the 10 year old Tesla.  If it has not, the person paying $18,000 - $20,000 and facing a $20,000 expense to put in a new "high performance" battery pack is crazy.  That would mean the person is paying almost 50% of the cost of a new Tesla for a ten year old car. 

It looks like a typical battery replacement (all four cells)  from Tesla is $11-14K. Yes, you can find people that paid more but this looks like what is typical. 

 

It also looks like used cells that are still good can be had for around $1,000. With a ten-year old car, I think replacing the cells one at a time as they go bad with good used ones is a good option. This looks like a developing industry. I think there are after-market batteries as well. 

 

But even if you bit the bullet and spent the $14K for all new, that should be good for another ten years, yes? 

 

In any event, I am not an advocate for EVs. I think they make little sense environmentally, and generally even less sense  economically.

 

But I am an advocate for HONEST discussion.