Anyone think Thailand will end up in a recession with the current supply chain issues, global economy and rising cost of goods?

 

Noticed global prices rising and inflation really get high in December but just recently started seeing it spread to Thailand, specifically Bangkok. 
 

My Thai friends have been telling me cost of food is up a lot (their families own restaurants).  I noticed quite a significantly less “meat” when ordering food recently. Either the portion of meat is significantly reduced to almost nothing or the pieces of meat are all fat. 
 

Curious if anyone else is noticing this? 

Not a bad sales technique offer to sell the dish at higher price or less meat at least people have a choice.

 

Yes price increases have been happening for weeks

Edited January 23, 20224 yr by scubascuba3

Yes.  Pork is now bouncing off 200 baht a kilo.  How does a workaday bloke with a family get by with a daily wage of 300 baht.

 

Last year chicken was 45 baht a kilo today it was 97.

 

Outrageous price increases of circa 100 percent....but...very importantly, don't believe the lies that it is due to covid.  It is because corruption is out of control here in Thailand and there is no one to pull up the 12 or so families that own everything.  

 

They are hiking the prices based on lies and no one (in any position of authority) is stepping in to call them out.

It's not limited to Thailand.

The bloody "pandemic" causes major disturbances to global trade.

Euro inflation is at a historic height. Energy prices skyrocketing.

That pork prices have almost doubled here might have specific reason like the swine flu and hoarding. Demand for chicken rising -> price rising (chicken legs from about 50 to 65/kg as an example).

And what does Thai Baht do? Rises and rises

Small chocolate milk pack went from 12 to 13 bat in 7/11 ????

Edited January 23, 20224 yr by TacoKhun

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

Yes.  Pork is now bouncing off 200 baht a kilo.  How does a workaday bloke with a family get by with a daily wage of 300 baht.

 

Last year chicken was 45 baht a kilo today it was 97.

 

Outrageous price increases of circa 100 percent....but...very importantly, don't believe the lies that it is due to covid.  It is because corruption is out of control here in Thailand and there is no one to pull up the 12 or so families that own everything.  

 

They are hiking the prices based on lies and no one (in any position of authority) is stepping in to call them out.

Many price increase on staple foods in Thailand are now over 100 % inflated from just November of last Year.

There is no reasonable justification for such price hikes, and its certainly not down to Covid.

Its almost as if when the news of some Countries around the World who were experiencing some Inflation issues, reached Thailand, the Thais said  " we should have a piece of that action as well. Its a good excuse to raise prices to the Consumers."

With huge Warehouses brimming with Pork ( one found with 200 Tons, and another with 500 Tons ) - so far, it seems clear to me the problem is down to Profiteering, Gouging, Scamming, Pure Greed, or any other form of Money Lust you can name.

I, for one , would  be keen to know how much Pork Meat ( alive or Dead ) has been shipped out of the Country to China for larger profits.

China has so far culled over 500 Million Pigs due to ASF, and there is no way they would allow the Pork to become in short supply there, and risk having the masses rebelling.

I have chosen Pork to highlight the issue, but there will be other staples that are going the same route for sure, leaving the Thai population to forage in the Jungle for a few Mushrooms.

Or as Prayut says " let them eat Grass "

 

2 hours ago, dj230 said:

Curious if anyone else is noticing this? 

Definitely, and I think this year will be a tough one for Thailand even if the pandemic were to go away in a hurry.

This may be the first time in history we are experiencing this level of inflation in the West, combined with record low interest rates. It will lead to a massive collapse and correction. It cannot be avoided. The balloon is way, way over inflated. 

 

Will Thailand be able to escape a worldwide economic correction? Combined with the current economic issues here, which are massive? I tend to doubt that. 

4 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Yes.  Pork is now bouncing off 200 baht a kilo.  How does a workaday bloke with a family get by with a daily wage of 300 baht.

 

Last year chicken was 45 baht a kilo today it was 97.

 

Outrageous price increases of circa 100 percent....but...very importantly, don't believe the lies that it is due to covid.  It is because corruption is out of control here in Thailand and there is no one to pull up the 12 or so families that own everything.  

 

They are hiking the prices based on lies and no one (in any position of authority) is stepping in to call them out.

I don’t think it’s because of covid directly but the effect it’s had on the globe. 

 

Back home in Canada a lot of shelves are completely empty, prices of meat are up significantly. 

 

I noticed some imported goods are gone from the shelves of grocery stores, not that I buy any of them but just something I’ve observed. 

 

I actually didn’t notice anything up until about 2 weeks ago, everything was normal during Christmas holidays 

5 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Yes.  Pork is now bouncing off 200 baht a kilo.  How does a workaday bloke with a family get by with a daily wage of 300 baht.

 

Last year chicken was 45 baht a kilo today it was 97.

 

Outrageous price increases of circa 100 percent....but...very importantly, don't believe the lies that it is due to covid.  It is because corruption is out of control here in Thailand and there is no one to pull up the 12 or so families that own everything.  

 

They are hiking the prices based on lies and no one (in any position of authority) is stepping in to call them out.

Yeah, they must own all the packing houses in the US as well

A ready-cooked fillet of fish in Big C was 49 baht in November, went to 59 in December  and jumped to 79 this week.  Not at that price.

5 hours ago, dj230 said:

Either the portion of meat is significantly reduced to almost nothing or the pieces of meat are all fat. 
 

Curious if anyone else is noticing this? 

I noticed less variety when buying minced meat at the supermarket. The few baht more don't bother me, but the fat content seems to be much higher now.

 

Many things are much more expensive now, so yes, there clearly is inflation, and most likely at a higher rate than published official figures.

 

Also, there seem to be less customers, with the exception around payday at the end of the month, which might indicate that for many, money is a bit tight.

Edited January 23, 20224 yr by StayinThailand2much

Thailand has been in a recession for almost 2 years no matter what the government says.

40 million tourists gone what to expect.

With fuel prices and durable goods prices up there should be higher inflation numbers reported.

But, I guarantee they are coming at some point much greater then anything you see now.  Those that are on lousy fixed income pensions may well be forced out of this place.

 

37 minutes ago, dj230 said:

I don’t think it’s because of covid directly but the effect it’s had on the globe. 

Supply chain shortages, thanks to Covid-19 restrictions, lockdowns (esp. in China), and changes in labour availability...

4 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Thailand has been in a recession for almost 2 years no matter what the government says.

40 million tourists gone what to expect.

With fuel prices and durable goods prices up there should be higher inflation numbers reported.

But, I guarantee they are coming at some point much greater then anything you see now.  Those that are on lousy fixed income pensions may well be forced out of this place.

 

Stagflation, not just in Thailand...

5 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Outrageous price increases of circa 100 percent....but...very importantly, don't believe the lies that it is due to covid.  It is because corruption is out of control here in Thailand and there is no one to pull up the 12 or so families that own everything.

?

I suggest you keep up with world news and economic reports the situation is a worldwide problem not just Thailand's problem due to corruption.

 

21 minutes ago, lungbing said:

A ready-cooked fillet of fish in Big C was 49 baht in November, went to 59 in December  and jumped to 79 this week.  Not at that price.

There you go! That's a cool 61% price increase within 2 months.

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This may be the first time in history we are experiencing this level of inflation in the West, combined with record low interest rates.

Wasn't inflation a big problem in the 1970s? - Yes, interest rates are (still) low, but the writing is on the wall that the Fed and other central banks will have to raise interest rates to 5% and more, which will make, IMHO, the economic situation only worse.

Then again, just think of the poor men who are worse off...

World's richest men lose billions

The world’s richest man is now $34 billion poorer and other billionaires have also taken a huge hit to their personal wealth in recent days.

13 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Wasn't inflation a big problem in the 1970s? - Yes, interest rates are (still) low, but the writing is on the wall that the Fed and other central banks will have to raise interest rates to 5% and more, which will make, IMHO, the economic situation only worse.

Might be a contrarian opinion but if a recession or at least some sort of economic weakness, wouldn't that mean the Fed wouldn't have to raise interest rates? Since demand would fall due to a weak economy. If supply chains ease that would also increase supply, omicron is already kind of fading in some countries (I don't follow many but some are re-opening from lockdowns). The bond market is selling off which is causing weakness in equities and higher interest rates already. 

 

Another thing to watch is Ukraine / Russian situation, if Russia invades Ukraine that should increase oil prices which will also cause higher inflation. It's a real mess right now but I like to be an optimist, really hard to imagine countries want to start "problems" with the global economy at risk. Russia is being threatened with sanctions. I would imagine they would wait until things are better until they start rolling the dice but who knows. It wasn't too long ago the media was talking about China invading Taiwan and that never happened. 

 

That's just my opinion though

13 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Wasn't inflation a big problem in the 1970s? - Yes, interest rates are (still) low, but the writing is on the wall that the Fed and other central banks will have to raise interest rates to 5% and more, which will make, IMHO, the economic situation only worse.

Yes, inflation was huge in the 1970's, but we did not have record low interest rates. This is a highly volatile combination, and simply cannot be sustained. 

It's amazing how the Thai government can control the entire world's economy.  In other threads we hear about how it manipulates the Baht in order to lower the value of the US dollar, Pound and Euro against many other currencies, and now we find that it's creating a global supply chain issue while causing inflation in key international economies.  Those pesky Thais!

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

Yes, inflation was huge in the 1970's, but we did not have record low interest rates. This is a highly volatile combination, and simply cannot be sustained. 

The interest rate when from about five to fifteen percent in the seventies.

17 hours ago, dj230 said:

I don’t think it’s because of covid directly but the effect it’s had on the globe. 

 

Back home in Canada a lot of shelves are completely empty, prices of meat are up significantly. 

 

I noticed some imported goods are gone from the shelves of grocery stores, not that I buy any of them but just something I’ve observed. 

 

I actually didn’t notice anything up until about 2 weeks ago, everything was normal during Christmas holidays 

There is an enormous amount of gouging going on now, by individuals and corporations. They claim it is a labor shortage, supply chain issues, etc. Also, in the US, companies are cutting way, way back on customer service. Same excuses. Waited 90 minutes to get through to Verizon on my last trip. Yet their profits are way up, and their service and speeds are way down. 

 

Here, I call True and my wait time is about one minute. Also, the service is 4X faster than in the US, and at one fifth the cost. Verizon has been declining for years now. Truly horrific service, for over $100 a month!

 

America is falling apart, as prices skyrocket. The quality of life back there is falling off a cliff. As some of you know, we thought we wanted to leave Thailand. Until we spend two months in the US, and Mexico. No thanks. I will just try to bury my head in the sand here, as much as possible. 

1 hour ago, ballpoint said:

It's amazing how the Thai government can control the entire world's economy.  In other threads we hear about how it manipulates the Baht in order to lower the value of the US dollar, Pound and Euro against many other currencies, and now we find that it's creating a global supply chain issue while causing inflation in key international economies.  Those pesky Thais!

The Thais barely comprehend the degree to which they influence the world! 

16 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Supply chain shortages, thanks to Covid-19 restrictions, lockdowns (esp. in China), and changes in labour availability...

Those are the excuses being put forth, and they are affecting things. But, there is a crazy and borderline criminal amount of gouging going on too. Is anyone investigating that? 

Edited January 24, 20224 yr by spidermike007

My local supermarket in the UK just put up my cream cakes 25% ! I'm furious ! I seriously cannot see anything in the product that could have risen 25%, there's nothing much in it. 

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

There is an enormous amount of gouging going on now, by individuals and corporations. They claim it is a labor shortage, supply chain issues, etc. Also, in the US, companies are cutting way, way back on customer service. Same excuses. Waited 90 minutes to get through to Verizon on my last trip. Yet their profits are way up, and their service and speeds are way down. 

Con you provide some examples?

 

Verizon is does not seem to be panning out for you...

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

Con you provide some examples?

 

Verizon is does not seem to be panning out for you...

 

 

 

 

Don't need to. They are glaring and can be found virtually everywhere. 

4 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Those are the excuses being put forth, and they are affecting things. But, there is a crazy and borderline criminal amount of gouging going on too. Is anyone investigating that? 

It's complicated, of course. Have you read this morning about the huge quantities of frozen pork, Thai authorities 'discovered', which some people, obviously, were/are hoarding?

 

Not to mention China hoarding natural gas and crude oil for months now, which doesn't really help to keep inflation low.

Edited January 24, 20224 yr by StayinThailand2much