Is land in Thailand in a bubble right now?

[SAFETY FIRST]

7 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I've got 4Rai of rice paddy 20Km from Lomsak you can have for 2Mbht.

Interesting.

 

Anywhere near Khao Kho? 

 

 

[KhaoYai]

7 hours ago, BritManToo said:

Easily,

25k/month gets them a 1.5M loan, repayments are 9k/month.

My house was purchased on exactly that basis (+300k deposit)

Plenty of houses around me 10Km from CM for 1.5Mbht.

Leaving 14,000 for 2 people and 1 child to live on?  I wouldn't do that.  You're a Brit - don't you remember the 25% rule?

[Mac Mickmanus]

1 minute ago, KhaoYai said:

Leaving 14,000 for 2 people and 1 child to live on?  I wouldn't do that.  You're a Brit - don't you remember the 25% rule?

He can afford H.P. Sauce and Typhoo tea bags 

[KhaoYai]

1 minute ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

He can afford H.P. Sauce and Typhoo tea bags 

Yorkshire Tea......................pl...ease.

[BritManToo]

20 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

He can afford H.P. Sauce and Typhoo tea bags 

........ and Cumberland sausages.

[BritManToo]

23 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

Leaving 14,000 for 2 people and 1 child to live on?  I wouldn't do that.  You're a Brit - don't you remember the 25% rule?

Would point out 25k - 9k = 16k to live on.

[KhaoYai]

34 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

Would point out 25k - 9k = 16k to live on.

Correct - maths was never my strong point ????.

 

But 25% of 25,000 is definitely 6250 and according to my friends it would take them 25 years to save the 300,000 deposit.

[KhunLA]

1 hour ago, KhaoYai said:

Leaving 14,000 for 2 people and 1 child to live on?  I wouldn't do that.  You're a Brit - don't you remember the 25% rule?

I don't think they use that here.  USA used to be 28% of gross for all credit, and not sure how that is now, since Clinton & FHA went crazy giving loans to anyone. Hence the need for Obama bail out, to save the investors.   What a scam.

 

On topic, 14k is enough to live on.

 

Daughter is getting ready to finance ฿3 mill for a house.  Mortgage & assoc. fee should be less than ฿15k.  House is only ฿2.6 mill ????  She's only buying as an investment.  As long as the renters pay the mortgage and a wee bit more, she's happy.  She'll probably add 10k a month to principle, so pay off in about 12 yrs, saves almost 1 mill in interest.  She'll have about 3 mil equity when paid off in 12 ish yrs. ????

 

Chip off the ol' block.  She's shooting to retire at 40-50yrs old.  Maybe have 5 houses by then, Free & clear.

[Lacessit]

Since I can't own land in Thailand, the price of it is irrelevant to me.

[KhaoYai]

3 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I don't think they use that here.  USA used to be 28% of gross for all credit, and not sure how that is now, since Clinton & FHA went crazy giving loans to anyone. Hence the need for Obama bail out, to save the investors.   What a scam.

 

On topic, 14k is enough to live on.

 

Daughter is getting ready to finance ฿3 mill for a house.  Mortgage & assoc. fee should be less than ฿15k.  House is only ฿2.6 mill ????  She's only buying as an investment.  As long as the renters pay the mortgage and a wee bit more, she's happy.  She'll probably add 10k a month to principle, so pay off in about 12 yrs, saves almost 1 mill in interest.  She'll have about 3 mil equity when paid off in 12 ish yrs. ????

 

Chip off the ol' block.  She's shooting to retire at 40-50yrs old.  Maybe have 5 houses by then, Free & clear.

You don't say what your daughter's salary is or her other circumstances.  I have no reason to doubt my friends that tell me they can't afford to buy and that it would take them 25 years to save up a deposit.  I think its the deposit that's the biggest problem although a mortgage payment of 9k per month is almost double what they pay in rent at the moment.

[KhunLA]

6 minutes ago, KhaoYai said:

You don't say what your daughter's salary is or her other circumstances.  I have no reason to doubt my friends that tell me they can't afford to buy and that it would take them 25 years to save up a deposit.  I think its the deposit that's the biggest problem although a mortgage payment of 9k per month is almost double what they pay in rent at the moment.

Salary is base at 30ish k a month, up to 50 at present.  They want to move her up the ladder, so more than 50k, on the way to 100k next year.  So at present, mortgage is about 40% of her base, which she hasn't earned less than 40k a month all year.

 

She has her own business going also, but doesn't generate income, and all profit being reinvested at the  moment, so can't show that as income.

[jack71]

On 4/15/2022 at 6:28 AM, Peterw42 said:

As others have said, Its "asking prices", not what properties sell/have sold for.

Thailand suffers from a lack of sales data, its simply not available, properties can change hands and its only the buyer/seller know the amount, and its not published.

This leads to people just plucking figures out of thin air, that have never, and will never be achieved. A sellers sees the stupid price, then puts the same stupid price on their property..

 

 

 

Your comment is the most accurate thus far. 

 

I think any seller is a dreamer here in Thailand. One must assume the market price is at least 25% off the actual listed price. 

[KhaoYai]

10 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Salary is base at 30ish k a month, up to 50 at present.  They want to move her up the ladder, so more than 50k, on the way to 100k next year.  So at present, mortgage is about 40% of her base, which she hasn't earned less than 40k a month all year.

 

She has her own business going also, but doesn't generate income, and all profit being reinvested at the  moment, so can't show that as income.

Right so she's in a very different position to my friends.

[jack71]

31 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Daughter is getting ready to finance ฿3 mill for a house.  Mortgage & assoc. fee should be less than ฿15k.  House is only ฿2.6 mill

When you say ready to finance are you saying the bank loan is 3million? If the house is valued at 2,6mill then a bank will only lend up to 80% of this value. 

 

It might be your English but I dont understand your numbers to be honest. 

[KhunLA]

7 minutes ago, jack71 said:

When you say ready to finance are you saying the bank loan is 3million? If the house is valued at 2,6mill then a bank will only lend up to 80% of this value. 

 

It might be your English but I dont understand your numbers to be honest. 

Thai math & finance, it's magic here.  Obviously the sale won't be written up as 2.6 mill.  No different anywhere else in the world, well, USA anyway.  I've had properties over appraised in the USA, then over financed their true appraisal.  More common than you'd expect, and nobody cares unless you default.

[jack71]

3 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Thai math & finance, it's magic here.  Obviously the sale won't be written up as 2.6 mill.  No different anywhere else in the world, well, USA anyway.  I've had properties over appraised in the USA, then over financed their true appraisal.  More common than you'd expect, and nobody cares unless you default.

It doesnt work like that here in Thailand with any of the big banks. 

[KhunLA]

1 minute ago, jack71 said:

It doesnt work like that here in Thailand with any of the big banks. 

and yet ... 

 

TIT

[NorthernRyland]

24 minutes ago, jack71 said:

I think any seller is a dreamer here in Thailand. One must assume the market price is at least 25% off the actual listed price. 

assuming they're actually interested in selling. I've seen many times buildings that have been on sale for literally years and they never sell. I assume it's because the owner insists on an imaginary price and it would be too shameful in their eyes to take less although it could be they've invested too much while initially acquiring the property. All of this nonsense could be solved by having a public record of property transactions but this doesn't appear to exist here.

[Sparktrader]

It is a bubble if interest rates go up. Rates always the big factor.

 

What are Thai economists predicting?

[Sparktrader]

Rates tipped to rise 0.75% by end 2023. Id equate that to a 6% fall in prices. 

[KhunLA]

26 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

assuming they're actually interested in selling. I've seen many times buildings that have been on sale for literally years and they never sell. .... All of this nonsense could be solved by having a public record of property transactions but this doesn't appear to exist here.

People will ask whatever they think they can get.  All it takes is one person in an area, overpaying, then you'll see every available parcel in the area for sale for that same silly price.

 

Present land, we bought from the bank, at assessed value, as we did previous lot, but not from bank.   Land office has assessments for anyone interested, along with what building cost per m² should be, as their assessments are based on that.

 

I've / we've never bought land over the assessment, and our builds were actually less than per m².

Present build is contracted 120m² @ ฿1 mill, which is less than their 'building assessment' for the area. 

 

Which I think was ฿12-15 for basic.  Extra would be for western kitchen, etc.

 

Last house was 160m² + for ฿1.7 mill, but 2 story, raised roof, for expansion to add 160m² more if needed.  The + being for another 60m², but only half wall & screened in, and under roof.

 

Don't know what they consider 'living space', but I think it's anything under roof, as I wouldn't consider the + 60m², as just an outside kitchen area, and a sink really and the rest for storage.  That was also 10 yrs ago, and you'd be hard pressed to get anything < 12k m² built now. 

 

Except for my wife, vicious negotiator.  Our builder is non-stop busy, actually too busy, and why it's taking so damn long.  Trying to do 10 house at once.  And not cookie cutter or townhouses in the same location.

[spidermike007]

On 4/14/2022 at 6:57 PM, KhunLA said:

All outside the main metro or small town.

22 yrs ago ... ฿50k ... 16 kms outside Udon Thani (1 rai)

 

12 yrs ago ... ฿120k ... 16 kms outside Udon Thani, sold last year ฿650k a rai

Bought 6 rai, 2 rai for house, 4 to sell, 1 left, listed at ฿700k

Land office assessed @ ฿120k a rai this year

 

6 yrs ago ... ฿320k ... 5 kms from surf Prachuap Khiri Khan (Muang ฿80k / 100 tw)

Neighbor now listed for 2 million rai (฿500k / 100 tw)

 

"Buy land, they're not making it anymore." - Mark Twain 

People can and will ask whatever they want. And the market will dictate whether they are living on another planet, or not. 

 

I think land is very overpriced here. And I expect a huge correction. Certainly in the condo market. Will it affect land too? Likely some. 

[Sparktrader]

Latest trend by agents put a range price. Start a bidding war. Lots of tricks.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

San sai 3 br house 2.9m baht.

 

Hows that for value vs pure land?

[NorthernRyland]

10 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Present land, we bought from the bank, at assessed value, as we did previous lot, but not from bank.   Land office has assessments for anyone interested, along with what building cost per m² should be, as their assessments are based on that.

 

Can you pay to get a land assessment? I'm looking at one plot which I can see has been vacant since at least 2011 (judging by Google map images) and I'm curious what they think it's worth (he wants 800k for 3/4 rai).

[KhunLA]

14 minutes ago, NorthernRyland said:

Can you pay to get a land assessment? I'm looking at one plot which I can see has been vacant since at least 2011 (judging by Google map images) and I'm curious what they think it's worth (he wants 800k for 3/4 rai).

At the land office, they'll tell the assessment of the area.  Might be disappointing though ????

 

As stated earlier, we paid ฿720k for 6+ rai, supposedly 7 rai, but when chopped up to 6 lots, all just 1 rai+, so ฿120k each, actually 12 yrs ago, (Oct 2010).  So close enough to assessed value, for between 6-7 rai.  Big 6 or shy 7 rai plot ????

 

Got the new assessment this year, as we didn't claim unused lot as farmland ... shh, and tax bill this year went from ฿5 to ฿590 w/attached assessment.  Yes, same size lots we sold 2 last year at  ฿650k each.

 

Wife had listed the 1 we still have for ฿850k, which I suggested ฿750k, and now suggest ฿600k, after getting the assessment, just to get rid of, as I was thinking about getting an EV.

 

But I'll leave the selling to her, as I would have been happy to sell the others at ฿500, which she told me correctly ... "too cheap you idiot" ... ????  Took awhile but she was right, as usual.  Worth waiting for, as not needing the money.

 

Changed mind about EV, so it might be a while before she sells the last parcel.  I told her to take anything over ฿600k ... doubt if she will now.  120k assessment and people are still paying 5 times that.  I'm not complaining.

 

Good Luck ... buying at assessed is definitely a challenge.

[stapoz]

Here in Hua Hin, I see only prices 5-10 M bath/rai (5 M/rai is far from city and the sea). Seaside plots are over 20 M bath/rai. Maybe can buy a land for 3M/rai in a village/rice field, but the house will be impossible to sell later (two years we are unsuccessfuly trying to sell the house (low standard) near Kalasin on 1 rai for 1.5 M bath)

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by stapoz

[NorthernRyland]

On 4/29/2023 at 6:06 PM, stapoz said:

Here in Hua Hin, I see only prices 5-10 M bath/rai (5 M/rai is far from city and the sea). Seaside plots are over 20 M bath/rai. Maybe can buy a land for 3M/rai in a village/rice field, but the house will be impossible to sell later (two years we are unsuccessfuly trying to sell the house (low standard) near Kalasin on 1 rai for 1.5 M bath)

 

So Hua Hin is very expensive. It's crazy how expensive land is here considering how much undeveloped lots sit there for years.

 

Maybe 1.5 is too expensive for your area. No idea what the market is like out there.