Is Bitcoin going to zero?

[dj230]

20 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Btc to 3c! Im buying 1000

Maybe not 3cents but if I had to guess, it’s going to be more like a dot com bubble crash vs a tropical stock market correction. 

[Sparktrader]

7 minutes ago, dj230 said:

Lots of Mega caps and growth stocks already at March 2020 bottoms, so unless they were overvalued during a market crash in 2020 then they aren’t overvalued now as their revenue and earnings are even higher. 

The mkt is 60% above 2020 lows

[shdmn]

55 minutes ago, dj230 said:

Lots of Mega caps and growth stocks already at March 2020 bottoms, so unless they were overvalued during a market crash in 2020 then they aren’t overvalued now as their revenue and earnings are even higher. 

Many good large cap stocks still are overvalued.  I think this drop still has a ways to go.  I am dollar cost averaging in a little bit but just dipping my toes right now.  This drop could be going till the end of the year before it starts showing signs of life again but nobody knows for sure.

Edited June 18, 2022 by shdmn

[Walker88]

How do you unwind a large position? Just the way someone is doing it now.

 

Pick a time, hammer the bids. Unload as much as the market will take without a total crash.

 

Then go silent for a while. let the market think you're done. If fans think the selling is over, they will try to lift the market a little. Help them. Buy a little bit to get some recovery. Let the bid side fill in again with dreamers and the endlessly hopeful.

 

Then give it Round 2. Hammer the bid side.

 

Rinse and repeat until most of the position is gone. Especially try to get as much done as possible before the market gets really spooked and enters full blown panic. That this is happening on the weekend is interesting. It suggests some bank---a lender to someone---couldn't wait anymore and pulled the plug on collateral for a loan. Is it because of Saylor? Could it be Three Arrow Capital?  Maybe "Satoshi" himself, just trying to get last blood out of the rock? (How do you make a small fortune? Start with a large one.)

 

The trading style of whomever it is is fascinating.

 

In equities, Bear Stearns and Lehman traded this way near the end. Bulls like Bill Miller,when they saw BSC tumbling, kept saying, "I'm buying more here...why shouldn't I?" Buy more, he did.

 

BSC fell to $2, and then merged with JPM. The price was later adjusted to about $10, for some reason.

 

LEH went to $0.

 

Those were real companies who had long provided services. They got wildly over leveraged. btc, on the other hand, is a 'finite' entity in a world of infinite cryptos with zero barriers to entry. It's an 'industry' where there is massive incentive for someone to produce a better mousetrap, correcting for the inherent flaws in existing coins, if indeed there is any genuine reason for any crypto.

 

It's possible 'crypto' is the new internet, though that is unlikely. Powered flight is revolutionary. The transistor was revolutionary. The internet and www were revolutionary. Blockchain could be semi-revolutionary. crypto is still a 'solution' looking for a problem, and btc may well not be the long term winner. Then again, it might just be another Beanie Baby, just not as cute to teens and soccer moms.

[Hummin]

17 950 USD now, still time to sell and buy at 11 000 in two weeks 

[ukrules]

4 hours ago, Dan O said:

Their only value is the the ponzi scheme that another person will pay you more and that cycle drives up the value artificially.

All your post demonstrates is that you don't know what a ponzi scheme is

[shdmn]

8 minutes ago, Hummin said:

17 950 USD now, still time to sell and buy at 11 000 in two weeks 

Some people will never learn.????‍♂️

Edited June 18, 2022 by shdmn

[Sparktrader]

27 companies including Tesla hold btc. They are getting smashed on Monday.

[Sparktrader]

https://www.coingecko.com/en/public-companies-bitcoin

[Hummin]

8 minutes ago, ukrules said:

All your post demonstrates is that you don't know what a ponzi scheme is

Well said

 

Cryptocurrencies are, in fact, worse than Ponzi schemes, says Gaurav Mehta, founder of Catax, an online crypto tax and auditing platform. “It is a more complicated asset than a Ponzi scheme, and it is worse since it not only encourages evangelism but also undermines nation states by interfering in the currency system.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.outlookindia.com/business/are-cryptocurrencies-really-like-ponzi-schemes-here-s-what-experts-have-to-say-news-182567/amp

[Sparktrader]

Just now, Hummin said:

Well said

 

Cryptocurrencies are, in fact, worse than Ponzi schemes, says Gaurav Mehta, founder of Catax, an online crypto tax and auditing platform. “It is a more complicated asset than a Ponzi scheme, and it is worse since it not only encourages evangelism but also undermines nation states by interfering in the currency system.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.outlookindia.com/business/are-cryptocurrencies-really-like-ponzi-schemes-here-s-what-experts-have-to-say-news-182567/amp

Fiat is ponzi. Argentina 60% inflation lol

[Sparktrader]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-14/argentina-s-annual-inflation-reaches-61-amid-investor-doubts

[Walker88]

Cue the "Hey, Ken Griffin is shorting coins! That's not fair!" Or maybe folks will go to the old standby, George Soros.

 

I suspect we're getting close to folks dragging out that tired old excuse....but then they'll begin dreaming of Gamestop.

[dj230]

1 hour ago, Sparktrader said:

The mkt is 60% above 2020 lows

I don’t look at markets I look at stocks, oil for example is still rallying, tech stocks already corrected to 2020 lows in most cases. 

[dj230]

48 minutes ago, shdmn said:

Many good large cap stocks still are overvalued.  I think this drop still has a ways to go.  I am dollar cost averaging in a little bit but just dipping my toes right now.  This drop could be going till the end of the year before it starts showing signs of life again but nobody knows for sure.

I only like tech stocks and high growth, most are done correcting, what’s holding markerts up is other sectors not tech, tech is near done it’s correction 

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, dj230 said:

I don’t look at markets I look at stocks, oil for example is still rallying, tech stocks already corrected to 2020 lows in most cases. 

Inflation

% rates

 

Profits will fall. 

 

Tesla will fall monday. Their btc holding is going down fast.

 

Oil stocks will hold up.

[Sparktrader]

Most market lows are between sept and feb.

 

 

[shdmn]

8 minutes ago, dj230 said:

I only like tech stocks and high growth, most are done correcting, what’s holding markerts up is other sectors not tech, tech is near done it’s correction 

Best of luck with that.  Tech could drop considerably more. Again, nobody knows for sure.  There could be some fake rallies too.  Just about every crash has some of those.

Edited June 18, 2022 by shdmn

[scubascuba3]

Crypto has certainly suckered a lot of people in with the big gains, now the big losses

[dj230]

2 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Inflation

% rates

 

Profits will fall. 

 

Tesla will fall monday. Their btc holding is going down fast.

 

Oil stocks will hold up.

Oil is already rolling over 

 

inflation only really affects profits with companies with high input costs

 

real rates are still negative so growth stocks still going to grow 

[dj230]

2 hours ago, shdmn said:

Best of luck with that.  Tech could drop considerably more. Again, nobody knows for sure.  There could be some fake rallies too.  Just about every crash has some of those.

The key to investing isn’t timing the market but investing in companies at fair or good prices and right now the valuations are good. valuations are at March 2020 lows when the world was literally “ending” because of a global pandemic. 
 

Can go down more but in 5 years probably will be up a minimum of 100% from todays prices, even after the dot com bubble good companies stocks returns to all times highs within 5 years which is a 100% gain for a lot of mega cap tech stocks, even TQQQ would return over 100% (triple leveraged nasdaq100 etf) if it returned to all time highs 

Edited June 18, 2022 by dj230

[Iamfalang]

Under 10,000….fact

ponzi……now the fraud lawsuits start

scam…suckers got suckered

game for the uneducated 

the rich stay rich

maybe the rich lose a little, while the sheep lose it all

the game!!,   Going according to plan

[Lacessit]

Tesla has now lost $800 million on its bitcoin holdings.

Hedge funds make money both ways. If they start shorting bitcoin, who knows how low it can go.

Good stocks usually have a group of investors who will band together to put a squeeze on short sellers by buying to support the stock price. Given the diversity of bitcoin owners, who is going to get together to put a short squeeze on the hedge funds?

[Sparktrader]

14 minutes ago, Iamfalang said:

Under 10,000….fact

ponzi……now the fraud lawsuits start

scam…suckers got suckered

game for the uneducated 

the rich stay rich

maybe the rich lose a little, while the sheep lose it all

the game!!,   Going according to plan

19,000 now fact

[Walker88]

One famous Warren Buffett saying is: "When the tide goes out, you can see who's been swimming naked"

 

When markets crash, the fraud, abuse and abject silliness comes to light.

 

In 1987's 'portfolio insurance' disaster, all funds thought they could just hedge by shorting futures, forgetting there has to be another side to that trade. In 2008 we found out about dark markets and how assets are marked by prime brokers (heavily in their favor,,,quel surprise !). We also found out AIG was assuming most of the world's known risk. We found Synthetic CDO Squareds where the bank was allowing major clients to hand-pick the mortgages going into a security against which the client would hold the CDS. Six months in arrears was the preferred mortgage for the eventual CVDS holder.

 

In 1990 in Japan, my favorite tale was that a major bank at that time---Industrial Bank of Japan---had loaned more than $2 billion to a single customer, a woman who owned a sushi restaurant in Osaka. Her restaurant was the sole pledged collateral. On her loan applications, she actually put as the reason for the loans, "To buy stocks the gods tell me to buy".  Apparently her gods were neither omnipotent nor infallible.

 

I wonder what nonsense we will find in the crypto and associated industry collapse? How many Michael Saylors and Three Arrow Capitals are there out there, who borrowed to buy other cryptos, pledging their existing crypto as collateral? That is the 'history rhymes' equivalent of LEH's 100:1 leverage back in 2009, or what went on at Bear Stearns.  Like Saylor, both Jimmy Cayne and Dick Fuld were billionaires....until reality intruded.

 

I certainly hope Michael Lewis will put his humor to this debacle.

[BKKBike09]

I wonder how many other exchanges will start making it hard to withdraw - this sent out yesterday by UpBit. A "system upgrade" without a defined end date, during which no deposits / withdrawals can be made? Right ...

 

Dear Traders,

We will proceed system upgrade on wallet service and BTC, USDT market.  Please read this announcement carefully.

[Impact]

• ALL Asset Withdrawal/Deposit Suspension : From 10:00 Bangkok Time, 23 Jun 2022~ • BTC, UST Market Trading Suspension : From 16:00 Bangkok Time, 23 Jun 2022, apprx. 2 hours.

Once the maintenance is complete, we will announce again. Please DO NOT deposit any asset during the suspension. In such case, recovery may take long time or impossible.

[Important Note]

• After the maintenance, ALL EXISTING DEPOIST ADDRESSES will be deleted. • Please ISSUE NEW ADDRESS after the maintenance for ALL ASSETS. • Deposit into legacy address may take a long time to recover. • Also erroneous deposit into legacy address may not be possible to recover.

After the completion of upgrade, we will provide withdrawal/deposit service of all tokens available on Upbit Thailand including BTC and USDT market.

Thank you. Upbit Team.

[Walker88]

Just now, Sparktrader said:

19,000 now fact

If the major seller is using a good broker, he will let it breathe, even buy it up a little and let the market think the storm has passed.

 

Then...BOOM ! When the bid side fills in, hammer it again.

 

This has already happened after the late afternoon lull yesterday (Thai time). Just when folks thought it was safe to go back in the water, the seller struck again.

 

(This assumes the seller isn't yet done; we'll see)

[Sparktrader]

6 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

One famous Warren Buffett saying is: "When the tide goes out, you can see who's been swimming naked"

 

When markets crash, the fraud, abuse and abject silliness comes to light.

 

In 1987's 'portfolio insurance' disaster, all funds thought they could just hedge by shorting futures, forgetting there has to be another side to that trade. In 2008 we found out about dark markets and how assets are marked by prime brokers (heavily in their favor,,,quel surprise !). We also found out AIG was assuming most of the world's known risk. We found Synthetic CDO Squareds where the bank was allowing major clients to hand-pick the mortgages going into a security against which the client would hold the CDS. Six months in arrears was the preferred mortgage for the eventual CVDS holder.

 

In 1990 in Japan, my favorite tale was that a major bank at that time---Industrial Bank of Japan---had loaned more than $2 billion to a single customer, a woman who owned a sushi restaurant in Osaka. Her restaurant was the sole pledged collateral. On her loan applications, she actually put as the reason for the loans, "To buy stocks the gods tell me to buy".  Apparently her gods were neither omnipotent nor infallible.

 

I wonder what nonsense we will find in the crypto and associated industry collapse? How many Michael Saylors and Three Arrow Capitals are there out there, who borrowed to buy other cryptos, pledging their existing crypto as collateral? That is the 'history rhymes' equivalent of LEH's 100:1 leverage back in 2009, or what went on at Bear Stearns.  Like Saylor, both Jimmy Cayne and Dick Fuld were billionaires....until reality intruded.

 

I certainly hope Michael Lewis will put his humor to this debacle.

I wear undies and boardies.

[Sparktrader]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

If the major seller is using a good broker, he will let it breathe, even buy it up a little and let the market think the storm has passed.

 

Then...BOOM ! When the bid side fills in, hammer it again.

 

This has already happened after the late afternoon lull yesterday (Thai time). Just when folks thought it was safe to go back in the water, the seller struck again.

 

(This assumes the seller isn't yet done; we'll see)

On charts support is 14k. 

[Walker88]

4 minutes ago, BKKBike09 said:

I wonder how many other exchanges will start making it hard to withdraw - this sent out yesterday by UpBit. A "system upgrade" without a defined end date, during which no deposits / withdrawals can be made? Right ...

 

Dear Traders,

We will proceed system upgrade on wallet service and BTC, USDT market.  Please read this announcement carefully.

[Impact]

• ALL Asset Withdrawal/Deposit Suspension : From 10:00 Bangkok Time, 23 Jun 2022~ • BTC, UST Market Trading Suspension : From 16:00 Bangkok Time, 23 Jun 2022, apprx. 2 hours.

Once the maintenance is complete, we will announce again. Please DO NOT deposit any asset during the suspension. In such case, recovery may take long time or impossible.

[Important Note]

• After the maintenance, ALL EXISTING DEPOIST ADDRESSES will be deleted. • Please ISSUE NEW ADDRESS after the maintenance for ALL ASSETS. • Deposit into legacy address may take a long time to recover. • Also erroneous deposit into legacy address may not be possible to recover.

After the completion of upgrade, we will provide withdrawal/deposit service of all tokens available on Upbit Thailand including BTC and USDT market.

Thank you. Upbit Team.

Also remember that in the event of bankruptcy, ALL assets of an exchange/dealer/bank/etc. are frozen, so anyone who has things held by any of the firms that sprang up around crypto will not have access until the bankruptcy runs through the court system, which generally takes years.