What’s behind the tight Thailand-US embrace?

[connda]

On 7/14/2022 at 12:33 PM, ourmanflint said:

The world is being reshaped, Myanmar will join China and Russia as part of new Eastern superpower alliance as will India probably. This leaves Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam in a very precarious situation. 

Truthfully I doubt it.
The Dragon with it's billion plus population and trade potential is literally 200 kilometers from where I live. 
The US backyard is 14,000 miles away.
China's backyard is - right here.

It seems that every deal with the US is one that is meant to harm other sovereign countries.
If you don't do what we say - we'll sanction you.
If you don't do what we say - we'll economically destroy you.

The basic problem here is that Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam are in China's economic trading zone.  Outside of the One China policy that includes China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan - the rest of the SE Asian countries benefit from direct (and close) trade with China and by proxy with trade with Eurasia and the Global South. 

Eventually sovereign countries will have little choice by to bond together in trade partnerships with the BRICS nations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) - all of which is in both South East Asian (ASEAN) and China's backyard.  Not the United States which doesn't little but threaten small, sovereign nations from 14,000 miles away with Air Craft Carrier Groups and almost 800 military bases world wide. 

Really - who is the aggressor? 

The world should be aligned with trade agreements and mutal respect; not with the constant threat of military intervention and economic destruction via sanctions.   And as we will probably see this Winter in Europe - watch sanctions blow-back in spades.

Globalism is a dying dinosaur.  Regional trade, national independence and sustainability, and international law and respect for national sovereignty is the future.

But I truly believe the West led by the US will provoke a nuclear war before that happens.

And then?  It's over.  None of us will live though that. 
There is the consequences of hubris and elitism for ya. 

[connda]

19 minutes ago, connda said:

Truthfully I doubt it.
The Dragon with it's billion plus population and trade potential is literally 200 kilometers from where I live. 
The US backyard is 14,000 miles away.
China's backyard is - right here.

It seems that every deal with the US is one that is meant to harm other sovereign countries.
If you don't do what we say - we'll sanction you.
If you don't do what we say - we'll economically destroy you.

The basic problem here is that Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam are in China's economic trading zone.  Outside of the One China policy that includes China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan - the rest of the SE Asian countries benefit from direct (and close) trade with China and by proxy with trade with Eurasia and the Global South. 

Eventually sovereign countries will have little choice by to bond together in trade partnerships with the BRICS nations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) - all of which is in both South East Asian (ASEAN) and China's backyard.  Not the United States which doesn't little but threaten small, sovereign nations from 14,000 miles away with Air Craft Carrier Groups and almost 800 military bases world wide. 

Really - who is the aggressor? 

The world should be aligned with trade agreements and mutal respect; not with the constant threat of military intervention and economic destruction via sanctions.   And as we will probably see this Winter in Europe - watch sanctions blow-back in spades.

Globalism is a dying dinosaur.  Regional trade, national independence and sustainability, and international law and respect for national sovereignty is the future.

But I truly believe the West led by the US will provoke a nuclear war before that happens.

And then?  It's over.  None of us will live though that. 
There is the consequences of hubris and elitism for ya. 

The world could be a paradise except that a few obscenely rich psychopaths have the money and recourse to run the rest of us into the ground.
What do they want?  Neo-Feudalism!
 They don't want Liberty, Equality, Fraternity - they want their boot stamping on your face - because?  They are psychopathic.  They prefer Masters And Slaves.

But it could be a paradise for us all.  If the right conditions transpire - it still could be.  But one segment of society will cease to exist.  Which one? 

Study history.

Edited July 17, 2022 by connda

[connda]

On 7/14/2022 at 12:57 PM, steven100 said:

and I am thinking India will stay neutral thereby it may benefit from both sides. 

India is not 'neutral.'  They are clever and understand global geopolitics. 
Well - as long as India and Pakistan don't nuke each other. 
If they do?  I can tell you who instigated that conflagration.

[zzaa09]

1 hour ago, connda said:

The world could be a paradise except that a few obscenely rich psychopaths have the money and recourse to run the rest of us into the ground.
What do they want?  Neo-Feudalism!
 They don't want Liberty, Equality, Fraternity - they want their boot stamping on your face - because?  They are psychopathic.  They prefer Masters And Slaves.

But it could be a paradise for us all.  If the right conditions transpire - it still could be.  But one segment of society will cease to exist.  Which one? 

Study history.

That is....real history.

Not the variety that is made up [and easily absorbed] for most of us.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, connda said:

Truthfully I doubt it.
The Dragon with it's billion plus population and trade potential is literally 200 kilometers from where I live. 
The US backyard is 14,000 miles away.
China's backyard is - right here.

It seems that every deal with the US is one that is meant to harm other sovereign countries.
If you don't do what we say - we'll sanction you.
If you don't do what we say - we'll economically destroy you.

The basic problem here is that Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam are in China's economic trading zone.  Outside of the One China policy that includes China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan - the rest of the SE Asian countries benefit from direct (and close) trade with China and by proxy with trade with Eurasia and the Global South. 

Eventually sovereign countries will have little choice by to bond together in trade partnerships with the BRICS nations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) - all of which is in both South East Asian (ASEAN) and China's backyard.  Not the United States which doesn't little but threaten small, sovereign nations from 14,000 miles away with Air Craft Carrier Groups and almost 800 military bases world wide. 

Really - who is the aggressor? 

The world should be aligned with trade agreements and mutal respect; not with the constant threat of military intervention and economic destruction via sanctions.   And as we will probably see this Winter in Europe - watch sanctions blow-back in spades.

Globalism is a dying dinosaur.  Regional trade, national independence and sustainability, and international law and respect for national sovereignty is the future.

But I truly believe the West led by the US will provoke a nuclear war before that happens.

And then?  It's over.  None of us will live though that. 
There is the consequences of hubris and elitism for ya. 

14000 miles away? you sure about that?

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, connda said:

The world could be a paradise except that a few obscenely rich psychopaths have the money and recourse to run the rest of us into the ground.
What do they want?  Neo-Feudalism!
 They don't want Liberty, Equality, Fraternity - they want their boot stamping on your face - because?  They are psychopathic.  They prefer Masters And Slaves.

But it could be a paradise for us all.  If the right conditions transpire - it still could be.  But one segment of society will cease to exist.  Which one? 

Study history.

Why are you being so coy about which segment of society will cease to exist? 

[zzaa09]

Who is the real boggieman?

[Baron Samedi]

That Thai journalist shows the Kingdom won't be fooled by the new US strategy.

That's a good thing for Thai people. Great opportunities ahead for them if they play one giant against the other as much as possible.

[ourmanflint]

19 hours ago, connda said:

Truthfully I doubt it.
The Dragon with it's billion plus population and trade potential is literally 200 kilometers from where I live. 
The US backyard is 14,000 miles away.
China's backyard is - right here.

It seems that every deal with the US is one that is meant to harm other sovereign countries.
If you don't do what we say - we'll sanction you.
If you don't do what we say - we'll economically destroy you.

The basic problem here is that Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam are in China's economic trading zone.  Outside of the One China policy that includes China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan - the rest of the SE Asian countries benefit from direct (and close) trade with China and by proxy with trade with Eurasia and the Global South. 

Eventually sovereign countries will have little choice by to bond together in trade partnerships with the BRICS nations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and International North South Transportation Corridor (INSTC) - all of which is in both South East Asian (ASEAN) and China's backyard.  Not the United States which doesn't little but threaten small, sovereign nations from 14,000 miles away with Air Craft Carrier Groups and almost 800 military bases world wide. 

Really - who is the aggressor? 

The world should be aligned with trade agreements and mutal respect; not with the constant threat of military intervention and economic destruction via sanctions.   And as we will probably see this Winter in Europe - watch sanctions blow-back in spades.

Globalism is a dying dinosaur.  Regional trade, national independence and sustainability, and international law and respect for national sovereignty is the future.

But I truly believe the West led by the US will provoke a nuclear war before that happens.

And then?  It's over.  None of us will live though that. 
There is the consequences of hubris and elitism for ya. 

Absolutely none of that changes what I have said. Russia's war in Ukraine and China's willingness to go along with it is the beginning of the world being sliced in two, and it is this which will provoke another war. 

And if you're unsure who the aggressors are it is Russia and China as they try to grab more territory through violence. For all the Wests faults and there are many, resorting to violent land grabs to increase territory and resources is not and never will be one of them.

The pieces are not in place quite yet, but they are starting to fall, Sri Lanka, Laos, Bangladesh are teetering on bankruptcy fuelled by huge loans for infrastructure projects pushed by Beijing. 

When China invades Taiwan, overnight countries will have to decide which side they will support. Neutrality might be an option for Thailand but for how long?

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by ourmanflint

[jacko45k]

15 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

For all the Wests faults and there are many, resorting to violent land grabs to increase territory and resources is not and never will be one of them.

Sort of got it out of their system some time ago.

[sscc]

21 hours ago, Iamfalang said:

gotta generalize.  sorry.

 

India hates China, or China hates India (definitely) or both.

 

Burma has a military killing people.  Thailand hasn't said that's bad.  America has. China, probably doesn't care or supports Burma.

 

Vietnam might split, again.    

 

Cambodia, China.  Already done.  Laos, China, already done.   Philippines, America, already done.  Japan goes with USA over China, already done.  S. Korea, America.   done.

 

Maybe we get a different shape of Thailand, wider in the bottom (taking some of Cambodia like before) and lose some at the top (CR, CM maybe......)

 

Thailand is definitely leaning America, but there is no need to decide now.

 

Don't worry TVFM, I'm on it...... 100 million baht is my fee, and I'm drafting the world constitution.  I'll solve everything!!!!!!   

 

Oh, and falangs..............yea, you definitely lose.   lol.   

 

Yes and No to some of your points or generalizations. 

 

India dislikes China  ;   China dislikes India    

 

China hates Japan  ;    Japan hates China. 

N Korea hates Japan ;    Japan hates N Korea. 

S Korea hates Japan.   

As to how Japanese see S Koreans,   I am not sure.  Need to dig deeper to understand. 

 

I don't see how  "Vietnam might split again".    Such interpretation from the left field goes beyond me.   (  Have you been to both Hanoi and HCM City ? )    

 

Thailand is neutral.   

Usually current Thailand PM Prayut gives no hints of his thinking from his body language and facial expression,  as this is also his way in dealing with USA and China affairs. 

However,  PM Prayut indeed has his preference deep down.