Thai Baht vs Sterling Exchange Rate

[Celsius]

14 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

I've been to China, the people are dirt poor.

Suggesting they are 2nd in household wealth to US citizens is nonsense.

Almost any western household is wealthier than a Chinese household.

 

Education time

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth

[Adumbration]

16 minutes ago, Celsius said:

 

Education time

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_wealth

You need some education as well.  Reliance upon mean and median based data is pointless.  Show me some data that provides the mode of net wealth per household and then we can talk about how apparently rich the Chinese masses are.

[OneMoreFarang]

3 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Apparently not, many many posters seem not to understand.

 

Sorry, you've lost me, which fancy terms, if there's something you don't understand, feel free to ask. And I'm sorry the post was so long, not everyone has your lightening fast intellect and intelligence and need things spelled out in detail.

 

Thanks for your understanding.

 

My "summary" is: All this is complicated, and it depends on lots of factors. Some are in part predictable, some not. I am sure there are many books written about exchange rates and similar subjects. And I am sure experts and talk about it every day for years. But at the same time there seem to be few or no expert who consistently makes the correct prognosis for the future.

So someone ignorant like me could try to learn from the experts for years, but I still wouldn't be able to predict the future.  

 

[OneMoreFarang]

3 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

That's not true at all. Many people find it difficult to understand, others find it easier to cling to the simple story line of manipulation. With a little effort and concentration it's all really quite simple. You don't have to be a Soros to understand it but you don't need to be a bumkin and ignore it either. 

 

To add. BTW there's no getting rich from understanding this, it doesn't change much at all.

If you understand exactly what is going on then you should be able to predict what will happen next. And with that knowledge and a little money you would be able to make more money. And with the knowledge and more money you would be able to make more and more and more.

Somehow they don't seem to be too many people around who make more and more and more money.

[nigelforbes]

7 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

If you understand exactly what is going on then you should be able to predict what will happen next. And with that knowledge and a little money you would be able to make more money. And with the knowledge and more money you would be able to make more and more and more.

Somehow they don't seem to be too many people around who make more and more and more money.

Just because somebody knows how something works, doesn't mean they know what it will do next, nobody knows that.

[OneMoreFarang]

38 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Just because somebody knows how something works, doesn't mean they know what it will do next, nobody knows that.

That sounds like you can explain why it rained yesterday. But you still don't know if and when it will rain today.

What's the point?

[PJ71]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Best suggestion from me is have the £/baht conversion open all day - or check it every few hours - and send your money when it blips up , rather than wait for a specific day of the month

This is great if you're talking massive amounts of money but for normal people this really makes very little difference.

 

When the £ is low i get paid ( with £ ) into a £ account, when it suits i change to baht.

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

That sounds like you can explain why it rained yesterday. But you still don't know if and when it will rain today.

What's the point?

If you know how something does work, you also know when posters are you telling you something different. I know for example that fluctuations in the baht exchange rate are caused by it's components, not by manipulation. Posters who don't understand how it works, don't know that so they invent reasons to disguise the fact.

[Celsius]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

You need some education as well.  Reliance upon mean and median based data is pointless.  Show me some data that provides the mode of net wealth per household and then we can talk about how apparently rich the Chinese masses are.

 

Tsk, tsk, tsk..... why does it matter? Poor people don't travel to other countries to spend money, buy property and support new wife's 12 bros. Obviously there is a lot of poverty in China. There is also a lot of poverty in Thailand. If you go by net worth per household then the price of the average condo on Bangkok would be 500,000 baht and no one could afford a car.

 

There is a lot of wealth in China and since Thailand opened the doors the price of rentals went up 25%. So did the price of real estate..... like overnight.

 

Bitcoin also up 20% since China opened the doors. Yes, crypto banned in China, but not in Hong Kong. 

[nigelforbes]

29 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

That sounds like you can explain why it rained yesterday. But you still don't know if and when it will rain today.

What's the point?

Actually, understanding the "how" is only one half of the picture, understanding the "why" is the other. Knowing what makes THB strong or weak, potentially means you can look for those factors rather than just watching a single exchange rate alone. A pre-requisite is a strong Dollar, a second requisite is a flat or down trending baht, typically in low season or at times of global economic stress - the Pound it can be assumed is broadly going to remain weak for much of the time. We've just seen USD at 115% and THB stressed because of covid, that was prime GBP/THB buying time, 46.22 was the low point but it's very unlikely to reach that point again for quite some time. 

[NoshowJones]

5 hours ago, Raindancer said:

Ok.  I understand dollar/pound.  But dollar/ pound/ thai baht is my issue. 

 

In simple terms why is the pound getting better against the dollar, and as soon as it does the Thai baht produces less against the pound.

 

BOT manipulation comes to mind.  Something they have been doing for years.

 

But thank you for trying to help. Much appreciated. 

"BOT manipulation comes to mind.  Something they have been doing for years."  Yes, I keep saying that it is no coincidence that the Baht was just over 50 to the UK £ in 2014 when the unelected PM stole the country. It has never got near that since.

[heybuz]

2 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I've been to China, the people are dirt poor.

Suggesting they are 2nd in household wealth to US citizens is nonsense.

Almost any western household is wealthier than a Chinese household.

This is what the 2022 Global Wealth Report from Credit Suisse, which looked at the wealth of 5.3 billion households around the world, says. It found that Australians came out on top, with a staggering median personal wealth of $US273,900 ($A415,412) per adult.23 Sept 2022. which agency do we believe Wikipedia or Credit Suisse

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Thanks for your understanding.

 

My "summary" is: All this is complicated, and it depends on lots of factors. Some are in part predictable, some not. I am sure there are many books written about exchange rates and similar subjects. And I am sure experts and talk about it every day for years. But at the same time there seem to be few or no expert who consistently makes the correct prognosis for the future.

So someone ignorant like me could try to learn from the experts for years, but I still wouldn't be able to predict the future.  

 

I can predict the future. As long as the unelected PM and his soldiers are in office, or to put it another way, as long as there is a military Junta in charge, the best we can hope for is about 45 Bt to the UK £ but only for a very short time, then it will decrease in value again.

[OneMoreFarang]

17 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

I can predict the future. As long as the unelected PM and his soldiers are in office, or to put it another way, as long as there is a military Junta in charge, the best we can hope for is about 45 Bt to the UK £ but only for a very short time, then it will decrease in value again.

And how will the situation change if the same corrupt criminal or one of his clones is in charge?

[NoshowJones]

11 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And how will the situation change if the same corrupt criminal or one of his clones is in charge?

I don't dispute what you say about Thaksin, but when his sister was in office there was no manipulation of the Baht against the UK £, you got over 50 Bt to the £ then. Look at it now.

As for Thaksin, are most senior politicians in almost any country, not have the same sort of mentality, fill their pockets first and keep filling them before doing anything for the people?

[Bill97]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I know for example that fluctuations in the baht exchange rate are caused by it's components

More correctly by the fluctuations of it’s components.  Just knowing the comments really doesn’t help to know the movement.

[gamb00ler]

Currency exchange rates are determined by many, many factors.  Demand for a currency is the major arbiter that determines its value.  Demand is due to trading in goods and services, governmental and commercial borrowing, tourism and by investors/speculators seeking a particular balance of risk/reward.  All participants make an estimate of what range of exchange rates is acceptable to them.  When the exchange rate approaches the limit of that range, each participant begins to change their behavior in regards to the currency in question.  They change the amount they buy/sell/invest/lend/borrow to maximize their profit or limit their risk to a tolerable level.

 

So many disparate groups with a wide range of actions produce both the short and long term fluctuations in exchange rates.  The movement in rates will look bewildering to those who have limited knowledge of the international financial flows.  I'm in that category, so the value of my opinion of rate changes is indistinguishable from zero.

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, Celsius said:

Aren't your pensions frozen for a reason?

My pensions aren't frozen at all, looking forward to a 10.1% rise in April.

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

If oil and commodities start being paid for in other currencies - which they are talking about now after the daft dollar increase recently - then the dollar will collapse. - big time

That's not gonna happen, the USA always invades countries that try that. 

[nigelforbes]

4 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I've been to China, the people are dirt poor.

Suggesting they are 2nd in household wealth to US citizens is nonsense.

Almost any western household is wealthier than a Chinese household.

I lived in mainland China for three years, if you have the opinion that the people are dirt poor, you've never been to China except perhaps on day trip to Sha Tau Kok.

[Celsius]

37 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

My pensions aren't frozen at all, looking forward to a 10.1% rise in April.

 

Cheating the government then?

 

Careful, they are really desperate for money. As soon as they find out you are a non resident they will confiscate your passport.

[Celsius]

10 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Sha Tau Kok.

 

Sounds interesting!

[BritManToo]

14 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I lived in mainland China for three years, if you have the opinion that the people are dirt poor, you've never been to China except perhaps on day trip to Sha Tau Kok.

I completely agree with everything you say.

I'm wrong, you're right.

[nigelforbes]

11 hours ago, Raindancer said:

That also makes sense.  So, at least I have all the different views, particularly on the baht being kept  low, and it's effect on exports.

 

But it seems crazy to want more tourism, and then give each tourist less for their home currency.   Rather defeats the object of trying to promote tourism.

 

 

I just spotted this late amendment.

 

It's a circle, or rather a cycle......attract foreign tourists, earn income from them, bank their foreign currency, the Baht strengthens as a result, mostly because the Foreign Currency Reserves have increased. Prices increase, attract more tourists, rinse and repeat. Nobody too much cares how many Baht tourists get for their currency, only the tourists care.

 

And to mention.....international tourism is only about 11% of GDP and not too much of that involves USD to THB transactions. The much much bigger impact comes from exports which are over 64% of GDP and 60% of that IS settled in USD/THB, because USD is the currency of export bill settlement.

[nigelforbes]

16 hours ago, NoshowJones said:

"BOT manipulation comes to mind.  Something they have been doing for years."  Yes, I keep saying that it is no coincidence that the Baht was just over 50 to the UK £ in 2014 when the unelected PM stole the country. It has never got near that since.

I wonder if you realise that, over the time frame you mentioned, the Baht strengthened because exports increased and tourism increased also. The number of tourists doubled from 19 million to a record 40 million tourists in 2019. Over that same timeframe, GDP increased from USD 407 bill. to USD 544 bill. And do you realise that USD, between 2004 and 2015, was very very weak, between 75% and 85% at max. In 2015 USD strengthened and it has remained strong ever since.

 

Did all those things happen because somebody was manipulating the Baht or did they happen because the Thai economy got much stronger, USD got much stronger and the Pound weakened, all of which caused the Baht to strengthen and this is why you have never seen 50 since?......I wonder!

 

Your connection between 50 Baht to the Pound in 2014 versus 40 Baht in 2023, and the "unelected PM" taking office, is a simple and convenient explanation, but it is  the wrong answer.

 

 

 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

[nigelforbes]

An interesting link to a calculator showing average exchange rates over time. The average GBP/THB rate over 1, 3, and 5 years is circa 42, over 10 years it's 45.

 

https://www.ofx.com/en-au/forex-news/historical-exchange-rates/yearly-average-rates/

[NoshowJones]

2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I wonder if you realise that, over the time frame you mentioned, the Baht strengthened because exports increased and tourism increased also. The number of tourists doubled from 19 million to a record 40 million tourists in 2019. Over that same timeframe, GDP increased from USD 407 bill. to USD 544 bill. And do you realise that USD, between 2004 and 2015, was very very weak, between 75% and 85% at max. In 2015 USD strengthened and it has remained strong ever since.

 

Did all those things happen because somebody was manipulating the Baht or did they happen because the Thai economy got much stronger, USD got much stronger and the Pound weakened, all of which caused the Baht to strengthen and this is why you have never seen 50 since?......I wonder!

 

Your connection between 50 Baht to the Pound in 2014 versus 40 Baht in 2023, and the "unelected PM" taking office, is a simple and convenient explanation, but it is  the wrong answer.

 

 

 

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/gdp

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/tourist-arrivals

Thanks for the explanation, but I do not believe in coincidenses, and between 2014 and now, that is just too much.

[nigelforbes]

9 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

Thanks for the explanation, but I do not believe in coincidenses, and between 2014 and now, that is just too much.

Coincidences...that's funny, the coincidence is the other way around...but OK, up to you as they say.

 

FWIW I fully expect and am planning on GBP/THB to average 35, within five years and markets do not disagree.

[orang37]

4 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

The average GBP/THB rate over 1, 3, and 5 years is circa 42, over 10 years it's 45/

Averages can  mask the often more meaningful information of median, and mode.

 

The Baht to US$ ratio has fluctuated wildly over the last 20 years: remember the crisis when the Thai economy house of cards collapsed, and one us dollar was suddenly worth 53 baht ?

 

imho, your predictions are more a form of astrology than hypotheses ... 

[nigelforbes]

33 minutes ago, orang37 said:

Averages can  mask the often more meaningful information of median, and mode.

 

The Baht to US$ ratio has fluctuated wildly over the last 20 years: remember the crisis when the Thai economy house of cards collapsed, and one us dollar was suddenly worth 53 baht ?

 

imho, your predictions are more a form of astrology than hypotheses ... 

The Asian crisis was over 25 years ago, Thailand and its economy have come along way since then. I don't think it's sensible to consider anything earlier than the this century hence the 53 baht per USD was an anomaly or one off, along with some of the nearby range, nothing above 40 that's for sure.

 

The only prediction I have made is GBP/THB will reach 35 within 5 years, I make no prediction against USD. If you accept that the value of GBP/THB is dependent on THB, USD and GBP, I'm pretty certain that the currencies of the UK and Thailand will move in the opposite direction, GBP has been on a downhill slope for decades. BOT on the otherhood has been struggling to keep the lid on THB and this is where most of their intervention has been, trying to reign in THB and there is ample evidence of this.

 

So really the only question is, will THB strengthen against GBP, by 10% over the next 10 years? I think it would be extremely foolish to bet against that. Read what Capital Economics has to say about the Pound: