Thailand turns to China in 2023 for GDP growth in a world buffeted in real-time by raw geopolitics

[webfact]

Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan ocha entertains Chinese President Xi Jinping at Government House in Bangkok last November at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit. 

 

by Joseph O' Connor

Sentiment regarding the economy has been rising since the return of Chinese tourists on January 9th last. However, with geopolitical tensions and indeed a trade war between the United States and China, now working with countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, as well as elevated energy costs, a dangerous ongoing war in Ukraine and rising interest rates, this choppy world economy presents Thailand with many challenges which must be navigated and tackled in real-time.

China’s economy, despite registering record-low growth in 2022 and being currently in the grips of its largest virus wave, is expected to rebound in the second quarter of 2023. It cannot come too quickly for Thailand which has suddenly, just in recent months, been left struggling against declining exports and competitiveness driven by a falling US dollar and a dearth of high-spending western tourists this year with the country’s foreign tourism high season coming to an end in March.

 

Now, the kingdom’s economic fortunes in 2023 are seen as more closely bound to China than ever in a world where geopolitics continues to impact the economy in real-time, especially for an outward-looking economy like Thailand’s.

Thailand’s economy faces a testing time in the opening two quarters of 2023 with an anticipated slowdown in world economic growth and export demand continuing to fall into the near future following three months of higher-than-expected declines in shipments out of the kingdom with a 7.5% fall in output for December 2022 compared to the year before.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2023/01/17/thailand-turns-to-china-in-2023-for-growth/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2023-01-18

 

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[Laughing Gravy]

I thought Thailand didn't rely on tourism or need it. With the constant, often daily articles on how tourism is so important like this one, I guess it is rollocks.

 

So Thailand is quite happy to 'get in bed with the devil'. Good luck.

[2baht]

Just give it to them Prayut, they'll take it eventually anyway!

[RichardColeman]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

for Thailand which has suddenly, just in recent months, been left struggling against declining exports and competitiveness driven by a falling US dollar

No, its exports are falling due to a stupidly high baht once again- nobody wants to pay 10% more for Thai goods

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

It cannot come too quickly for Thailand which has suddenly, just in recent months, been left struggling against declining exports and competitiveness driven by a falling US dollar and a dearth of high-spending western tourists this year with the country’s foreign tourism high season coming to an end in March.

Eight years of stagnation is the issue, tourist reliant Thailand has done nothing since the military moved in.

[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I thought Thailand didn't rely on tourism or need it. With the constant, often daily articles on how tourism is so important like this one, I guess it is rollocks.

 

So Thailand is quite happy to 'get in bed with the devil'. Good luck.

Thailand is solely reliant on tourism, many thousands are in the supply chain to resorts etc.

TAT daily give us figures on how many are coming in, where they are going and how much they are spending.

I don't know of any other country that publishes these stats daily as if to boast how well they are doing.

How come we don't see daily figures regarding industry in Thailand in the same way.

 

[StayinThailand2much]

1 hour ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I thought Thailand didn't rely on tourism or need it. With the constant, often daily articles on how tourism is so important like this one, I guess it is rollocks.

 

So Thailand is quite happy to 'get in bed with the devil'. Good luck.

Reading the news, one is under the impression that Thailand relies on the goodwill and fortune (in 'everything', not just tourism) of only one other country. Good luck with that!

[jacko45k]

Err, that is the guy who bypassed your outstretched hand some months back.... and blanked you. That does not seem to have deterred the boot licking!

[ThaiFelix]

2 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

I thought Thailand didn't rely on tourism or need it. With the constant, often daily articles on how tourism is so important like this one, I guess it is rollocks.

 

So Thailand is quite happy to 'get in bed with the devil'. Good luck.

The devil?  The article is referring to China not the US??

[Srikcir]

"Thailand turns to China for GDP growth in 2023"

Sadly, this direction seems driven mostly by political alignment/(vassal state) loyalty and not by rational indeoendent economics.

from https://trading economics.com (Asia Region)

• China's GDP Annual growth rate forecast for 2023/2024 is 2.9% vs Thailand 4.5%
• Compare to India @ 6.30%, Malaysia @ 14.2%, Indoneasia @ 5.7%, Philippines @ 7.6%

Most of the Americas and European regions are below 5% 'eyeball average'. Regardless, we will probably hear the same turn to Russia forecasting -3.7% (negative growth).

Overall, I'd say based on current forecasts from the aforementioned reference, there doesn't seem to be no predictable reliable success with a single country's projected GDP growth rate. Even the G20 as a whole falls generally below 5%.

As such Thailand must act independently (with all the attendent political risks* for the welfare of its citizens) to pursue its own economic agenda. To quote the US Marine philosophy to problem solution: 'improvise, adapt and overcome." Some of Thailand's historical and seemingly continued weaknesses.

* ie., loss of power

 

 

 

[ChrisY1]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

Thailand is solely reliant on tourism, many thousands are in the supply chain to resorts etc.

TAT daily give us figures on how many are coming in, where they are going and how much they are spending.

I don't know of any other country that publishes these stats daily as if to boast how well they are doing.

How come we don't see daily figures regarding industry in Thailand in the same way.

 

Do you read Thai news at all...or just follow the English language media. Business and industry news are always in the media.

[Laughing Gravy]

34 minutes ago, ThaiFelix said:

The devil?  The article is referring to China not the US??

Thanks for splitting my sides. Obviously you are entitled to your opinion.

[sammieuk1]

How's that F35 deal going in a nosedive I suspect ????

[Lucky Bones]

China and "buffeted" in the headline.

Strangely appropriate.????????