US hits debt ceiling, prompting Treasury to take extraordinary measures

[nauseus]

7 hours ago, candide said:

A dishonest comparison. You select the years you like for Trump and use the average for Obama.

I've openly stated the first 3 Trump year average as a direct follow-on comparison from Obama. Do you really think it's honest to have me include the first and most costly year of Covid panic (2020), when the debt increased at least four times the previous annual average?

[candide]

2 minutes ago, nauseus said:

I've openly stated the first 3 Trump year average as a direct follow-on comparison from Obama. Do you really think it's honest to have me include the first and most costly year of Covid panic (2020), when the debt increased at least four times the previous annual average?

Stop putting words in my mouth. You perfectly understand what I meant.

 

I think It's fair to compare Obama's last mandate with Trump's pre-Covid years, as economic conditions were similar. Obama's first years and Trump's Covid years should be excluded for exactly the same reason.

[heybruce]

16 hours ago, JonnyF said:

They need to take those measures because the debt is spiralling out of control.

If you look at the history of US budget deficits over the last 50 years it's clear that the Republican administrations have done most of the damage.

 

 

Chart 1: Federal Deficit by Presidential Administration^[14]
[$ in Billions]

	A. President (Inauguration Date)	B. Deficit or Surplus Inherited from Previous President	C. Deficit or Surplus at the End of Final Budget	D. Total Increase or Decrease in Deficit from First Budget to Final Budget	E. Percent Increase or Decrease in Deficit from First Budget to Final Budget	F. Fiscal Years of the President’s Budgets (10/1/xx- 9/30/xx)
1	Ronald Reagan (1/20/1981)	-$79 (as of 9/30/1981)	-$153 (as of 9/30/1989)	$74	94%	FY 1982-1989
2	George H.W. Bush (1/20/1989)	-$153 (as of 9/30/1989)	-$255 (as of 9/30/1993)	$102	67%	FY 1990-1993
3	Bill Clinton (1/20/1993)	-$255 (as of 9/30/1993)	$128 (as of 9/30/2001)	$383	150%	FY 1994-2001
4	George W. Bush (1/20/2001)	$128 (as of 9/30/2001)	-$1,413 (as of 9/30/2009)	$1,541	1,204%	FY 2002-2009
5	Barack Obama (1/20/2009)	-$1,413 (as of 9/30/2009)	-$665 (as of 9/30/2017)	$748	53%	FY 2010-2017
6	Donald Trump (1/20/2017)	-$665 (as of 9/30/2017)	-$2,772 (as of 9/30/2021)	$2,107	317%	FY 2018-2021

https://amarkfoundation.org/us-federal-deficits/

[nauseus]

25 minutes ago, candide said:

Stop putting words in my mouth. You perfectly understand what I meant.

 

I think It's fair to compare Obama's last mandate with Trump's pre-Covid years, as economic conditions were similar. Obama's first years and Trump's Covid years should be excluded for exactly the same reason.

OK fair enough:

 

From the table I linked before and for Obama's last 3 and Trump's first 3. 

 

2013	$16,738
2014	$17,824
2015	$18,151
2016	$19,573		2,835
2017	$20,245
2018	$21,516
2019	$22,719		3,146

 

Well you got me. Over three years the debt went up about 300B more under Trump. If you look at annual debt fluctuations then 100B annually is not relatively huge, especially when more than half of that difference was used on extra defense spending.

 

I also don't recognize the direct GFC / Covid comparison, as Covid resulted in far more debt and so was far more costly, both financially and in other ways.

[wwest5829]

17 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Nothing is ever the Democrats fault, is it? ????

I would never claim this. Both the spending and the lack of a workable immigration policy are the result of both parties “kicking the can down the road” so they do not upset their chance to be re-elected (and here I observe that the ultimate responsibility is on the citizen voters not demanding change). Reality under the last administration? Raise the spending and reduce the tax on the corporations/wealthy … which party held the majority and passed both these things?

[Tug]

19 hours ago, JonnyF said:

They're doing so well that they need extraordinary measures to service their debt. 

 

 

Well gutting the IRS to protect the wealthy certainly isent helping the debt of the United States ???????? it’s all of our debt accrued over many years and many administrations 

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

OK fair enough:

 

From the table I linked before and for Obama's last 3 and Trump's first 3. 

 

2013	$16,738
2014	$17,824
2015	$18,151
2016	$19,573		2,835
2017	$20,245
2018	$21,516
2019	$22,719		3,146

 

Well you got me. Over three years the debt went up about 300B more under Trump. If you look at annual debt fluctuations then 100B annually is not relatively huge, especially when more than half of that difference was used on extra defense spending.

 

I also don't recognize the direct GFC / Covid comparison, as Covid resulted in far more debt and so was far more costly, both financially and in other ways.

There is an obvious and huge flaw in the relevance of the numbers you cite. It goes to the issue of the denominator which is the total national debt. But as time goes on, the national debt gets bigger which means that the deficits as a percentage of national debt would tend to grow smaller. Obviously the more accurate way to show the difference would be to compare the deficits. And what you'll find in year 2016 is that the deficit was 585 billion dollars. In 2019, the deficit was 984 billion.

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

That's an increase of 68%! 

 

[nauseus]

38 minutes ago, placeholder said:

There is an obvious and huge flaw in the relevance of the numbers you cite. It goes to the issue of the denominator which is the total national debt. But as time goes on, the national debt gets bigger which means that the deficits as a percentage of national debt would tend to grow smaller. Obviously the more accurate way to show the difference would be to compare the deficits. And what you'll find in year 2016 is that the deficit was 585 billion dollars. In 2019, the deficit was 984 billion.

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-deficit-by-year-3306306

That's an increase of 68%! 

 

The numbers are relevant and show averages over two 3 tear periods of relative stability. Using this data over these periods was suggested by Candide, who is the person I was talking to. Not you. 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

The numbers are relevant and show averages over two 3 tear periods of relative stability. Using this data over these periods was suggested by Candide, who is the person I was talking to. Not you. 

Yes. Using data over those 2 periods is relevant. But it should be the most relevant data.  For reasons that I painstakingly explained, the data I offered is. Yours not as much. 

This is a forum open to all members of aseannow.com. If you wish to have a private conversation with Candide, that's what the PM service is for.

[candide]

10 hours ago, nauseus said:

OK fair enough:

 

From the table I linked before and for Obama's last 3 and Trump's first 3. 

 

2013	$16,738
2014	$17,824
2015	$18,151
2016	$19,573		2,835
2017	$20,245
2018	$21,516
2019	$22,719		3,146

 

Well you got me. Over three years the debt went up about 300B more under Trump. If you look at annual debt fluctuations then 100B annually is not relatively huge, especially when more than half of that difference was used on extra defense spending.

 

I also don't recognize the direct GFC / Covid comparison, as Covid resulted in far more debt and so was far more costly, both financially and in other ways.

Actually, the source you used (The Balance), calculates the debt increase per president differently. They use the federal fiscal year, as each president is starting with a budget which has been voted under the previous president.

Quote:

"For example, President Donald Trump took office in January 2017. He submitted his first budget in May. It covered the 2018 fiscal year, which didn't begin until October 1, 2017. Trump operated the first part of his term under President Barack Obama's budget for fiscal year 2017, which ended on Sept. 30, 2017."

 

Using fiscal years ( what has been voted under each president) shows a different picture:

Obama's last mandate:

FY 2017: $671 billion

FY 2016: $1.42 trillion

FY 2015: $326 billion

FY 2014: $1.09 trillion 

 

Trump mandate:

FY 2021: $1.5 trillion

FY 2020: $4.2 trillion

FY 2019: $1.2 trillion

FY 2018: $1.3 trillion

 

So for Obama's last mandate, the average debt increase per year is 876 billion, and for Trump's first two FY, the average is 1250 billion. That's 42% higher than Obama's last mandate.

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-3306296

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by candide

[Rimmer]

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