UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

[onthedarkside]

 

The UK is set to be one of the worst performing major economies in the world this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

 

It says the UK economy's performance in 2023 will be the worst among the 20 biggest economies, known as the G20, which includes sanctions-hit Russia.

 

The IMF predicts the UK economy will shrink this year, although this is a small upgrade from its last forecast.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65240749

 

[Mac Mickmanus]

Its just a prediction 

They also predicted that the UK would fare badly in 2022 and the U.K ended up with a better GDP growth than Germans, Dutch , Danes , Italians and French .

   

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

45 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Its just a prediction 

They also predicted that the UK would fare badly in 2022 and the U.K ended up with a better GDP growth than Germans, Dutch , Danes , Italians and French .

   

 

 

Growth as in percentage change.

 

The UK’s growth was a function of how far behind the UK economy was and remains.

 

[RayC]

7 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Its just a prediction 

They also predicted that the UK would fare badly in 2022 and the U.K ended up with a better GDP growth than Germans, Dutch , Danes , Italians and French .

   

 

 

The IMF predicted in October '21 that the UK economy would grow at a higher rate than France and Germany in 2022 (see also Chomper's post).

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2021/10/12/blog-global-prospects-and-policies

 

UK growth rates since 2016 - and most other economic indicators - have been negatively influenced by the decision to leave the EU.

[thaibeachlovers]

Given that Britain doesn't seem to make much anymore, is it any surprise that it's not doing well?

Shuffling money around seemed to be where the money was made, but that is not a solid foundation to build an economy on.

[Chomper Higgot]

21 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given that Britain doesn't seem to make much anymore, is it any surprise that it's not doing well?

Shuffling money around seemed to be where the money was made, but that is not a solid foundation to build an economy on.

I wonder who it was who declared UK Manufacturing Industry to be dead, and then set about killing it and creating the ‘money shuffling’ you mention?

[nigelforbes]

Yet the Pound has strengthened and the FTSE has increased and is forecast to remain strong, JPM is recommending overweight UK equities. 

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Yet the Pound has strengthened and the FTSE has increased and is forecast to remain strong, JPM is recommending overweight UK equities. 

Beyond minor short term fluctuation, the pound is certainly not ‘strengthens’ against the US Dollar or its major trading currency the Euro.

 

Most companies on the FTSE are trading overseas their share price determined by that overseas trade, not the health or otherwise of the UK economy.

 

 

[nigelforbes]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Beyond minor short term fluctuation, the pound is certainly not ‘strengthens’ against the US Dollar or its major trading currency the Euro.

 

Most companies on the FTSE are trading overseas their share price determined by that overseas trade, not the health or otherwise of the UK economy.

 

 

Yes you're right, most of the pickup in Sterling value results from USD weakening.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1M

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

 

 

 

 

[SunnyinBangrak]

23 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Its just a prediction 

They also predicted that the UK would fare badly in 2022 and the U.K ended up with a better GDP growth than Germans, Dutch , Danes , Italians and French .

   

 

 

"London beats rivals with world’s best-performing major stock market

FTSE 100 is only top index to deliver a gain for investors in miserable year"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/30/london-beats-rivals-worlds-best-performing-major-stock-market/

 

Surprising to read after all the doom and gloom brexit threads over the same period the UK was enjoying the world's best performing stock market! Added to my UK investments yesterday after reading this guff.

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

"London beats rivals with world’s best-performing major stock market

FTSE 100 is only top index to deliver a gain for investors in miserable year"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/30/london-beats-rivals-worlds-best-performing-major-stock-market/

 

Surprising to read after all the doom and gloom brexit threads over the same period the UK was enjoying the world's best performing stock market! Added to my UK investments yesterday after reading this guff.

As the previous poster said, the FTSE comprises mostly overseas companies whose earnings are in other currencies (USD, EURO) that are then converted back to Sterling. The rise in the FTSE is not really representative of the state of the UK economy but there again, no stock market in any country is because stock values and indices are forward looking.

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I wonder who it was who declared UK Manufacturing Industry to be dead, and then set about killing it and creating the ‘money shuffling’ you mention?

Margaret Thatcher ............ Tory obviously!

[Credo]

Well, it seems that Brexit is taking the country exactly where they said it wouldn't be.

 

[Mac Mickmanus]

1 minute ago, Credo said:

Well, it seems that Brexit is taking the country exactly where they said it wouldn't be.

 

No, the Remainers claim was that UK's financial business/district would all move to Frankfurt or other European cities and the City(of London) would cease to be a major player in the financial World post Brexit and many business would leave the UK and relocate to Europe .

   See above for what happened 

 

 

"London beats rivals with world’s best-performing major stock market

FTSE 100 is only top index to deliver a gain for investors in miserable year"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/30/london-beats-rivals-worlds-best-performing-major-stock-market/

[nigelforbes]

9 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

No, the Remainers claim was that UK's financial business/district would all move to Frankfurt or other European cities and the City(of London) would cease to be a major player in the financial World post Brexit and many business would leave the UK and relocate to Europe .

   See above for what happened 

 

 

"London beats rivals with world’s best-performing major stock market

FTSE 100 is only top index to deliver a gain for investors in miserable year"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/30/london-beats-rivals-worlds-best-performing-major-stock-market/

As said previously, the UK FTSE is dependent on earnings from companies in the US and Europe, its performance does not reflect UK economic performance in any way (But no stock market ever does)

 

" Around 82% of the FTSE 100 revenues are from overseas markets, while, though still sizeable, this figure drops to nearly 57% for the FTSE 250".

 

 https://www.ftserussell.com/blogs/overseas-revenues-boon-ftse-100-performance

Edited April 13, 2023 by nigelforbes

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

No, the Remainers claim was that UK's financial business/district would all move to Frankfurt or other European cities and the City(of London) would cease to be a major player in the financial World post Brexit and many business would leave the UK and relocate to Europe .

   See above for what happened 

 

 

"London beats rivals with world’s best-performing major stock market

FTSE 100 is only top index to deliver a gain for investors in miserable year"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/30/london-beats-rivals-worlds-best-performing-major-stock-market/

From the Marxists at The Telegraph:

"The performance is a boost for London, whose stocks have been unloved since the Brexit vote. The FTSE 100 is still 3.5pc lower than it was five years ago, while the S&P 500 is up almost 39pc over the same time frame.

The FTSE 100 benefited from a falling pound, which boosts companies that earn money abroad and then turn it into British currency, as well as a strong performance by heavyweight energy and defence stocks including BP, Shell and BAE Systems."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/30/london-beats-rivals-worlds-best-performing-major-stock-market/

 

Anyway, the performance of these stocks tells us nothing about the continued competitiveness of The City.

[Mac Mickmanus]

2 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

As said previously, the UK FTSE is dependent on earnings from companies in the US and Europe, its performance does not reflect UK economic performance in any way (But no stock market ever does)

My point was that the Remainer prediction about how Brexit would effect the UK's financial district was incorrect , 

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

My point was that the Remainer prediction about how Brexit would effect the UK's financial district was incorrect , 

Apart from the fact that it's still early days, the evidence you offered was utterly irrelevant to your assertion.

 

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

My point was that the Remainer prediction about how Brexit would effect the UK's financial district was incorrect , 

Yes, sort of, but today the picture still is not good.

 

"Since Brexit, they find London’s position has been marginally eroded in only some of the business lines examined. The recently published 2022 BIS Triennial Survey, the first since the United Kingdom’s formal departure from the EU, shows that London has remained the dominant centre for over-the-counter (OTC) trading of FX and euro IRD, but it has lost share in euro and dollar IRD, in the latter case owing to Libor’s end rather than Brexit. In international banking, London has retained its top position, but its role as a banking hub for the euro area has waned. In the underwriting of euro international bonds, London firms have until recently stood their ground, but recent data raise questions". 

 

https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2022/12/16/london-as-a-financial-center-since-brexit-evidence-from-the-2022-bis-triennial-survey/#:~:text=The Brexit vote in 2016,financial services throughout the EU.

[Mac Mickmanus]

14 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Apart from the fact that it's still early days, the evidence you offered was utterly irrelevant to your assertion.

 

London being the best performing financial district in the World , is completely relevant to my point that Remainers were wrong about the predicted  future demise of the UK financial district 

[nigelforbes]

8 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

London being the best performing financial district in the World , is completely relevant to my point that Remainers were wrong about the predicted  future demise of the UK financial district 

You may be right, I don't know, almost certainly there was a lot of exaggeration at the time but mostly, nobody really knew for certain what would happen. Estimating and forecasting is not an exact science so probably, some of the original ideas were wide of the mark. I think however that the key point is to assess whether the financial district is better or worse off today than it was pre referendum, Iit seems today it may be worse off. Where it might be in say five or ten years time is another story.

[placeholder]

15 minutes ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

London being the best performing financial district in the World , is completely relevant to my point that Remainers were wrong about the predicted  future demise of the UK financial district 

Whether or not London is "the best performing financial district in the world", has nothing to do with the relative success of the FTSE 100.

 

And then there's this:

Fears over London’s competitiveness grow as New York catches up in latest finance rankings

https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/fears-over-londons-competitiveness-grow-as-new-york-catches-up-in-latest-finance-rankings-20230330

[Chomper Higgot]

6 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

My point was that the Remainer prediction about how Brexit would effect the UK's financial district was incorrect , 

Let’s go back to your usual excuses for hiding Brexit impacts.

 

The Pandemic and Russian illegal invasion of Ukraine.

 

The impacts of the former are fading fast but have, together with the impacts of the latter affected two major groups of stock prices:

 

1. Interest rate hikes hit a major Tech focussed bank resulting in a crash to tech stock prices - LSE is not heavily loaded with tech stocks and therefore did not see significant tech stock price losses.

 

2. Energy stocks have seen a historically unprecedented windfall as a direct result of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Shell, BP, British Gas and other energy companies listed on the LSE have raked in vast increases in profits for which they did zero to achieve.

 

The heavy bias of the LSE towards fossil fuel energy companies has resulted in windfall profits.

 

The long term future for these stocks is now under threat. A future Labour Government will undoubtedly introduce real windfall taxes while renewable energy and Green technologies are already taking their market share.

 

The profusely of the LSE in 2022 were a windfall, absolutely no guide to the health of the UK economy.

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by Chomper Higgot

[newbee2022]

On 4/12/2023 at 6:39 AM, Mac Mickmanus said:

Its just a prediction 

They also predicted that the UK would fare badly in 2022 and the U.K ended up with a better GDP growth than Germans, Dutch , Danes , Italians and French .

   

 

 

Where you got that from????  Seems to be absolutely wrong. 

Check here:

GDP Annual Growth Rate - Countries - List | Europe (tradingeconomics.com)

Ireland 12%

UK 0,6%

[Mac Mickmanus]

14 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

Where you got that from????  Seems to be absolutely wrong. 

Check here:

GDP Annual Growth Rate - Countries - List | Europe (tradingeconomics.com)

Ireland 12%

UK 0,6%

I did mean actual growth rate compared to previous  IMF forecasts

 

 

Note: Data from International Monetary Fund is projected estimate based upon previous data and known trends. Final values may differ.

 CSV JSON

Country	% growth (World Bank)	WB data year	% growth 2022 (IMF estimate)
Libya	31.4%	2021	3.5%
Maldives	31%	2021	6.1%
Guyana	19.9%	2021	47.2%
Macau	18%	2021	15.5%
Panama	15.3%	2021	7.5%
Moldova	13.9%	2021	0.3%
Bahamas	13.7%	2021	6%
Ireland	13.5%	2021	5.2%
Peru	13.3%	2021	3%
Honduras	12.5%	2021	3.8%
Montenegro	12.4%	2021	3.8%
Dominican Republic	12.3%	2021	5.5%
Chile	11.7%	2021	1.5%
Botswana	11.4%	2021	4.3%
Turkey	11%	2021	2.7%
Rwanda	10.9%	2021	6.4%
El Salvador	10.8%	2021	3%
Colombia	10.6%	2021	5.8%
Croatia	10.4%	2021	2.7%
Georgia	10.4%	2021	3.2%
Argentina	10.3%	2021	4%
Nicaragua	10.3%	2021	3.8%
Belize	9.8%	2021	5.7%
Malta	9.4%	2021	4.8%
Tajikistan	9.2%	2021	2.5%
India	8.9%	2021	8.2%
Andorra	8.9%	2021	4.5%
Eritrea	8.7%	2011	4.7%
Albania	8.5%	2021	2%
Greece	8.3%	2021	3.5%
Estonia	8.3%	2021	0.2%
Israel	8.2%	2021	5%
China	8.1%	2021	4.4%
Slovenia	8.1%	2021	3.7%
Singapore	7.6%	2021	4%
Costa Rica	7.6%	2021	3.3%
Kenya	7.5%	2021	5.7%
Guatemala	7.5%	2021	4%
United Kingdom	7.4%	2021	3.7%
Morocco	7.4%	2021	1.1%
Uzbekistan	7.4%	2021	3.4%
Serbia	7.4%	2021	3.5%
Eswatini	7.4%	2021	2.1%
Hungary	7.1%	2021	3.7%
Palestine	7.1%	2021	4%
Bosnia And Herzegovina	7.1%	2021	2.4%
France	7%	2021	2.9%
Ivory Coast	7%	2021	6%
Bangladesh	6.9%	2021	6.4%
Burkina Faso	6.9%	2021	4.7%
Luxembourg	6.9%	2021	1.8%
Italy	6.6%	2021	2.3%
Benin	6.6%	2021	5.9%
Saint Lucia	6.6%	2021	9.7%
Dominica	6.5%	2021	6.8%
Hong Kong	6.4%	2021	0.5%
Turkmenistan	6.3%	2019	1.6%
Belgium	6.2%	2021	2.1%
Senegal	6.1%	2021	5%
Bolivia	6.1%	2021	3.8%
Pakistan	6%	2021	4%
Romania	5.9%	2021	2.2%
Zimbabwe	5.8%	2021	3.5%
United States	5.7%	2021	3.7%
Philippines	5.7%	2021	6.5%
Dr Congo	5.7%	2021	6.4%
Poland	5.7%	2021	3.7%
Armenia	5.7%	2021	1.5%
Ethiopia	5.6%	2021	3.8%
Azerbaijan	5.6%	2021	2.8%
Gambia	5.6%	2021	5.6%
Cyprus	5.5%	2021	2.1%
Ghana	5.4%	2021	5.2%
Togo	5.3%	2021	5.6%
Grenada	5.3%	2021	3.6%
Antigua And Barbuda	5.3%	2021	6.5%
Spain	5.1%	2021	4.8%
Netherlands	5%	2021	3%
Lithuania	5%	2021	1.8%
South Africa	4.9%	2021	1.9%
Portugal	4.9%	2021	4%
Russia	4.8%	2021	-8.5%
Mexico	4.8%	2021	2%
Sweden	4.8%	2021	2.9%
Denmark	4.7%	2021	2.3%
Brazil	4.6%	2021	0.8%
Canada	4.6%	2021	3.9%
New Zealand	4.6%	2021	2.7%
Jamaica	4.6%	2021	2.5%
Austria	4.5%	2021	2.6%
Latvia	4.5%	2021	1%
Madagascar	4.4%	2021	5.1%
Uruguay	4.4%	2021	3.9%
Timor Leste	4.4%	2021	2%
Tanzania	4.3%	2021	4.8%
Djibouti	4.3%	2021	3%
Nepal	4.2%	2021	4.1%
Ecuador	4.2%	2021	2.9%
Paraguay	4.2%	2021	0.3%
Bulgaria	4.2%	2021	3.2%
South Korea	4%	2021	2.5%
Kazakhstan	4%	2021	2.3%
Liberia	4%	2021	4.5%
North Macedonia	4%	2021	3.2%
Mauritius	4%	2021	6.1%
Norway	3.9%	2021	4%
American Samoa	3.9%	2020	0%
Algeria	3.8%	2021	2.4%
Guinea Bissau	3.8%	2021	3.8%
Indonesia	3.7%	2021	5.4%
Sri Lanka	3.7%	2021	2.6%
Switzerland	3.7%	2021	2.2%
Iceland	3.7%	2021	3.3%
Nigeria	3.6%	2021	3.4%
Zambia	3.6%	2021	3.1%
Kyrgyzstan	3.6%	2021	0.9%
Cameroon	3.5%	2021	4.3%
Finland	3.5%	2021	1.6%
Uganda	3.4%	2021	4.9%
Ukraine	3.4%	2021	-35%
Egypt	3.3%	2021	5.9%
Somalia	3.3%	2021	3%
Tunisia	3.3%	2021	2.2%
Czech Republic	3.3%	2021	2.3%
Saudi Arabia	3.2%	2021	7.6%
Malaysia	3.1%	2021	5.6%
Mali	3.1%	2021	2%
Guinea	3.1%	2021	4.8%
Sierra Leone	3.1%	2021	3.4%
Cambodia	3%	2021	5.1%
Slovakia	3%	2021	2.6%
Tuvalu	3%	2021	3%
Germany	2.9%	2021	2.1%
Iraq	2.8%	2021	9.5%
Malawi	2.8%	2021	2.7%
Vietnam	2.6%	2021	6%
Belarus	2.5%	2021	-6.4%
Laos	2.5%	2021	3.2%
Namibia	2.4%	2021	2.8%
Mauritania	2.3%	2021	5%
Comoros	2.3%	2021	3.5%
Mozambique	2.2%	2021	3.8%
Jordan	2.2%	2021	2.4%
Bahrain	2.2%	2021	3.3%
New Caledonia	2.1%	2000	0%
Turks And Caicos Islands	2.1%	2021	0%
Bermuda	1.9%	2021	0%
Iran	1.8%	2020	3%
Burundi	1.8%	2021	3.2%
Sao Tome And Principe	1.8%	2021	1.6%
Seychelles	1.8%	2021	4.6%
Japan	1.6%	2021	2.4%
Thailand	1.6%	2021	3.3%
Australia	1.5%	2021	4.2%
Syria	1.5%	2018	0%
Papua New Guinea	1.5%	2021	4.8%
Qatar	1.5%	2021	3.4%
Gabon	1.5%	2021	2.7%
Nauru	1.5%	2021	0.9%
Niger	1.4%	2021	6.9%
Mongolia	1.4%	2021	2%
Barbados	1.4%	2021	11.2%
Lesotho	1%	2021	3.1%
Central African Republic	0.9%	2021	3.5%
Angola	0.7%	2021	3%
Tonga	0.7%	2020	-1.6%
Saint Vincent And The Grenadines	0.7%	2021	5%
Vanuatu	0.5%	2021	2.2%
Greenland	0.4%	2020	0%
Isle Of Man	0.3%	2019	0%
Sudan	0.1%	2021	0.3%
Solomon Islands	-0.2%	2021	-4%
Kiribati	-0.5%	2020	1.1%
Equatorial Guinea	-0.9%	2021	6.1%
Trinidad And Tobago	-1%	2021	5.5%
Saint Kitts And Nevis	-1%	2021	10%
Chad	-1.2%	2021	3.3%
Liechtenstein	-1.2%	2009	0%
Brunei	-1.6%	2021	5.8%
Haiti	-1.8%	2021	0.3%
Yemen	-2.1%	2021	1%
United States Virgin Islands	-2.1%	2020	0%
Afghanistan	-2.4%	2020	0%
Marshall Islands	-2.5%	2021	2%
Oman	-3.2%	2020	5.6%
Micronesia	-3.2%	2021	-0.5%
Republic Of The Congo	-3.5%	2021	2.4%
Suriname	-3.5%	2021	1.8%
Venezuela	-3.9%	2014	1.5%
Puerto Rico	-3.9%	2020	4.8%
Fiji	-4.1%	2021	6.8%
Cayman Islands	-5.7%	2020	0%
United Arab Emirates	-6.1%	2020	4.2%
Sint Maarten	-6.6%	2018	0%
San Marino	-6.6%	2020	0%
French Polynesia	-7.6%	2020	0%
Samoa	-8.1%	2021	0%
Kuwait	-8.9%	2020	8.2%
Palau	-9.7%	2020	8.1%
Bhutan	-10.1%	2020	4.4%
Lebanon	-10.5%	2021	0%
South Sudan	-10.8%	2015	6.5%
Cuba	-10.9%	2020	0%
Northern Mariana Islands	-11.1%	2019	0%
Monaco	-11.8%	2020	0%
Guam	-11.9%	2020	0%
Myanmar	-18%	2021	1.6%
Curacao	-18.4%	2020	0%
Aru       https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/gdp-growth-by-country	-22.3%	2020	2.7%

[youreavinalaff]

I predict the UK will not be one of the worst performing economies this year.

[Chomper Higgot]

5 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I predict the UK will not be one of the worst performing economies this year.

Pinned

[ozimoron]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given that Britain doesn't seem to make much anymore, is it any surprise that it's not doing well?

Shuffling money around seemed to be where the money was made, but that is not a solid foundation to build an economy on.

Works for Lichtenstein.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Let’s go back to your usual excuses for hiding Brexit impacts.

 

The Pandemic and Russian illegal invasion of Ukraine.

 

The impacts of the former are fading fast but have, together with the impacts of the latter affected two major groups of stock prices:

 

1. Interest rate hikes hit a major Tech focussed bank resulting in a crash to tech stock prices - LSE is not heavily loaded with tech stocks and therefore did not see significant tech stock price losses.

 

2. Energy stocks have seen a historically unprecedented windfall as a direct result of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, Shell, BP, British Gas and other energy companies listed on the LSE have raked in vast increases in profits for which they did zero to achieve.

 

The heavy bias of the LSE towards fossil fuel energy companies has resulted in windfall profits.

 

The long term future for these stocks is now under threat. A future Labour Government will undoubtedly introduce real windfall taxes while renewable energy and Green technologies are already taking their market share.

 

The profusely of the LSE in 2022 were a windfall, absolutely no guide to the health of the UK economy.

 

Also, covid delayed the move of some financial houses operations to the EU.

[TKDfella]

11 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Beyond minor short term fluctuation, the pound is certainly not ‘strengthens’ against the US Dollar or its major trading currency the Euro.

 

Most companies on the FTSE are trading overseas their share price determined by that overseas trade, not the health or otherwise of the UK economy.

 

 

Well, the US certainly has gone down this week against the GBP but that could be due to a non-UK reason.