COVID-19 cases will probably rise after Songkran festival

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

27 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I don't want under or over reaction.... I want unadulterated unbiased facts. 

And yet, your speculation about how deaths are counted, undercounted, or overcounted here is largely fact-free.... and filled with your own largely unsourced speculations.

 

Quote

"That said, as you have pointed out, based on ‘excess deaths’ numbers it would appear that Covid-19 deaths are less than the Excess deaths...  BUT.. that only works IF the excess deaths are considered Covid-19 deaths...  What if those excess deaths were from the side-effects of Covid-19 lockdowns etc ??...  That is perhaps another debate for another time, but one on which I wonder if again, definitive facts will become extremely difficult to come by. "

 

 

[Burma Bill]

4 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

most passengers on BTS these days are following the BTS and MoPH's guidance to wear face masks when traveling on the system.

For the appalling air pollution in Bangkok rather than coronavirus????

Edited April 17, 2023 by Burma Bill
additional information

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

3 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

Conveniently omitted war and the like......

The chart and statistics were specific to deaths in the U.S.

 

Are large numbers of Americans dying in a war somewhere in the U.S. right now?

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 minute ago, Burma Bill said:

For the air pollution in Bangkok rather than coronavirus????

And you know that how?  You have some source that tells you that?

 

Thais in Bangkok and elsewhere have been wearing face masks long before the relatively recent outbreak of very bad seasonal air pollution.

 

[vandeventer]

If covid returns eating eggs might help? This was a surprise to me!

https://www.ucdavis.edu/health/covid-19//news/covid-19-antibodies-eggs

[richard_smith237]

4 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

For the appalling air pollution in Bangkok rather than coronavirus????

You mean you think that although very few Thai’s wore masks in 2019, about 90% of Thai’s are now wearing masks as protection from pollution and the proximity to Covid-19 is purely coincidence ?

 

 

 

[Bday Prang]

6 hours ago, RedCardinal said:

In the Thai-dominant public areas the figure is probably >95% still.  Unmasked tend to always be farang.  Regardless of ones personal views on masks, it's probably sensible to respect the views of our hosts.

would that include being scared of ghosts  and picking lottery numbers from the registration numbers of vehicles involved in fatal accidents? 

[richard_smith237]

6 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

9 minutes ago, Burma Bill said:

For the air pollution in Bangkok rather than coronavirus????

And you know that how?  You have some source that tells you that?

 

Thais in Bangkok and elsewhere have been wearing face masks long before the relatively recent outbreak of very bad seasonal air pollution.

No they weren’t....  Hardly any people in Bangkok wore masks before 2020..  perhaps 5% at most. 

 

 

 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

12 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

42 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I don't want under or over reaction.... I want unadulterated unbiased facts. 

And yet, your speculation about how deaths are counted, undercounted, or overcounted here is largely fact-free.... and filled with your own largely unsourced speculations.

I used your numbers !!!!.... 

 

 

[dinsdale]

10 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

No they weren’t....  Hardly any people in Bangkok wore masks before 2020..  perhaps 5% at most. 

 

 

 

 

 

I live just outside of BKK and people were starting to wear masks before covid due to air pollution. Surgical masks mainly which are useless for pm2.5 protection. Even N95 must be fitted 100% correctly but didn't see too many of them probably due to cost.  Indeed at my school they were telling students to wear masks. They handed out the useless surgical masks. Absolutely no idea. So that was burning season 2019. I think that was the worst I had seen it but nothing compared to this season. I've hardly seen the sun in months just a brown sky.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Surgical masks mainly which are useless for pm2.5 protection.

The thread here is about COVID in Thailand, not PM2.5.

 

Masks work best when everyone in the room has one on, but you’ll still benefit from masking up even when those around you aren’t

...

"A study from Tokyo tested how well different types of masks protected the wearer from actual coronavirus particles. The study showed that even a simple cotton mask offered some protection (17 percent to 27 percent) to the wearer. Medical masks performed better, including a surgical mask (47 percent to 50 percent protection), a loosefitting N95 (57 percent to 86 percent protection) and a tightly sealed N95 (79 percent to 90 percent protection)."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/article/covid-masks-protection-stats.html

 

[richard_smith237]

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

I live just outside of BKK and people were starting to wear masks before covid due to air pollution. Surgical masks mainly which are useless for pm2.5 protection. Even N95 must be fitted 100% correctly but didn't see too many of them probably due to cost.  Indeed at my school they were telling students to wear masks. They handed out the useless surgical masks. Absolutely no idea. So that was burning season 2019. I think that was the worst I had seen it but nothing compared to this season. I've hardly seen the sun in months just a brown sky.

I too am in Bangkok. 

 

I have always seen people wearing masks, but they were a very small minority and nowhere near at the current numbers. 

 

Pre-2020 I’d see about 1 in 20 pedestrians wearing masks.... maybe about 2 or 3 motorcyclists out of 20 wearing masks... On the BTS I’d not see many at all... 1 in 50 perhaps.... the same in a shopping mall... 

 

Obviously now there are lot more people wearing masks - I don’t think they have all suddenly become acutely aware of air-pollution. 

 

 

[dinsdale]

3 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I too am in Bangkok. 

 

I have always seen people wearing masks, but they were a very small minority and nowhere near at the current numbers. 

 

Pre-2020 I’d see about 1 in 20 pedestrians wearing masks.... maybe about 2 or 3 motorcyclists out of 20 wearing masks... On the BTS I’d not see many at all... 1 in 50 perhaps.... the same in a shopping mall... 

 

Obviously now there are lot more people wearing masks - I don’t think they have all suddenly become acutely aware of air-pollution. 

 

 

You're right. Back then it was only for pm2.5 and it was in the news but it certainly was only a minority wearing them. It's been pretty much 100% with covid but every now and again I'll ask someone why they are wearing a mask. The answer is always Covid even though they are wearing the disposable surgical masks that a fly could quite easily fly into the gaps. Just haven't been educated to what the reality is with omicron. Any how as I have posted several times it seems more and more are taking them off. They won't drop dead from omicron so their friends will start taking off their masks and they won't drop dead either etc, etc. Eventually the govt will come out and tell people they can take their masks off. 

[richard_smith237]

Just now, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

The thread here is about COVID in Thailand, not PM2.5.

 

Masks work best when everyone in the room has one on, but you’ll still benefit from masking up even when those around you aren’t

...

"A study from Tokyo tested how well different types of masks protected the wearer from actual coronavirus particles. The study showed that even a simple cotton mask offered some protection (17 percent to 27 percent) to the wearer. Medical masks performed better, including a surgical mask (47 percent to 50 percent protection), a loosefitting N95 (57 percent to 86 percent protection) and a tightly sealed N95 (79 percent to 90 percent protection)."

 

https://www.nytimes.com/article/covid-masks-protection-stats.html

 

Yup... I think most people are now aware of how masks can be effective as a ‘barrier’ from expelled water droplets and aerosol from our respiratory tract and how when combined with other factors can be effective to prevent of spread of highlight transmissible respiratory viruses. 

 

 

BUT...  is it still necessary for all of society to wear masks as a continued measure against Covid-19  ???

 

Personally, I think in enclosed areas where there is potentially very high footfall and potential fr close proximity contact, i.e. BTS / MRT, then sure, go ahead and wear a mask...  as a precaution against all respiratory viruses (influenza, colds etc and of course Covid)..... 

 

But, with balanced consideration of the risk, I don’t think we need to get too neurotic about mask wearing everywhere we go - its an individual choice now, but one I’d like to see with intelligent reasoning behind - not simply wearing a mask because we fear social judgement if we don’t. 

 

 

Of course, then there are the other facets of mask wearing... 

Is everyone disposing of their mask after single use ?... 

OR, are many people wearing the same mask for days, even weeks?

That mask has caught all the ‘material’...  sputum, droplets etc to which bacteria and viruses may be attached...  what happens to this ??... Petri-dish on the face anyone ?

 

 

Thus: While mask wearing definitely seems to protect the community in periods of high risk (i.e. at the height of the pandemic), once that aggregate risk has dropped, do individuals within the community face increased risk of other illnesses etc directly as a result of 'mask wearing culture’ ??

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

The point that's mainly been debated here on this thread is the BTS Skytrain policy advising people to wear facemasks while on BTS to help reduce the risk of COVID.

 

That's exactly the kind of confined space, crowded setting that face masks would be most recommended for... just as the Thai Ministry of Public Health has done.

 

[Seppius]

Watch people in shopping malls wearing masks, but grasping the handrail of the escalator that thousands have touched.

 

How does that work when you remove and replace your mask a few times? I would say your risk has dramatically increased. If taking it seriously, you should wash your hands and put on a new one.

 

I think it's very sad some people are still letting it run their lives, instead of getting on with their life, enjoying family, freedom and friends

 

But up to them

[Bday Prang]

I cannot think of anything on this planet that worries me less or bores me more

[realfunster]

2 hours ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

And all the major public health agencies -- for our purposes here, WHO, CDC and Thai MoPH, continue to recommend mask wearing to help prevent COVID.

Speak for yourself.

 

For the majority of TVers (being non-American) the CDC have little, if not zero, relevance.

 

Aside from sovereignty issues, have they not also overseen one of the worst COVID fatality rates in the developed world ? Quite an achievement for the wealthiest country on the planet and one which is relatively blessed with a low population density 

 

One wonders why you would be hanging on their every word…

 

Personally, being British, I pay more attention to the UK and European governments’ guidance and have actually visited the UK and several other European countries twice since COVID travel restrictions were eased, in April and December 2022.

 

It’s literally the exact opposite to Thailand across most of Europe, no government “guidelines” on masks and around 5-10% of people wearing them. I imagine others have also visited countries that are more significantly “normalized” after the main COVID waves than Thailand and are struggling to rationalize the different approach here compared to many countries. 

 

As for the Thai MoPH, I trust and respect their intellectual capability and competency about as much as any other Thai government department, i.e about as far as I can throw them…

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by realfunster
Typo

[richard_smith237]

1 minute ago, Bday Prang said:

I cannot think of anything on this planet that worries me less or bores me more

Yet you felt compelled to comment on something about which nothing worries you less or bores you more....   ????

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

15 minutes ago, Seppius said:

 If taking it seriously, you should wash your hands and put on a new one.

 

Mask wear etiquette advised by public health agencies is that people should wash their hands or use alcohol gel whenever putting on or taking off a facemask.

 

15 minutes ago, Seppius said:

 

I think it's very sad some people are still letting it run their lives, instead of getting on with their life

Lots of folks wear masks exactly in order to be able to "get on" with their lives (and out of consideration to others)... as opposed to ending up in a hospital or worse.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[Bday Prang]

3 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Yet you felt compelled to comment on something about which nothing worries you less or bores you more....   ????

yes I did

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

2 minutes ago, realfunster said:

have they not also overseen one of the worst COVID fatality rates in the developed world

 

Strange thing.... America has more than its fair share of people very much opposed to receiving COVID vaccines and wearing face masks.... and indeed, look what happened to the U.S. COVID death rate.

 

Whereas, people in Thailand were more willing to be vaccinated and continue wearing face masks as recommended by their government, and didn't end up with as bad a COVID death rate as the U.S.

 

Hard to say just what exactly drove what in each situation, but it's at least an interesting contrast. And one that has been noted lately.

 

Traditional values closely linked to following COVID-19 precautions, except in US

 

"A new study from researchers at the University of California-Los Angeles shows the US population's response to COVID-19 precautions stood in sharp contrast to other countries.

 

Worldwide, people who professed to have more traditional or socially conservative values were more likely to adhere to COVID-19 recommendations, but in the United States people with those values were more likely to dismiss such recommendations.

...

"In countries where the discourse around science and trust was less polarized, traditionalists were more willing to embrace precautions than their more socially liberal counterparts," study co-author Daniel Fessler, PhD said. "The U.S., where these topics were highly politicized, suffered more COVID-19 deaths per capita than any other highly developed nation."

 

(more)

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/traditional-values-closely-linked-following-covid-19-precautions-except-us

 

[anrcaccount]

It is quite clear that masking is, finally, ending in Thailand.

 

Some provinces slower than others, but, Hallelujah. 

 

 

[richard_smith237]

2 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Lots of folks wear masks exactly in order to be able to "get on" with their lives (and out of consideration to others)... as opposed to ending up in a hospital or worse.

 

This is where there seems to be some irrationality behind the mask wearing vs non-mask wearing debate.... Some arguments fall outside the window of discourse. 

 

Someone states they wear a mask to prevent ending up in hospital or dying which means anyone else who disagrees is selfish and is ready to kill others by not mask wearing... 

 

In this case a potentially balanced argument to support mask wearing takes on an excessively polarised argument and dichotomises the potential responses to polar extremes where a balanced middle-ground is no longer sufficient to counter the extreme polarised an potentially exaggerated view. 

 

 

I therefore ask... do you really wear a mask because you are so scared of Covid that you may end up in hospital or worse (die from Covid-19) ???

 

Of course, some people are that frightened of covid for valid reason, i.e. they are in a high-risk group or close to someone at high-risk - BUT, I would also argue that such a person is at risk from every respiratory illness and potentially many others and have thus had to moderate their exposure and behaviour even before Covid-19. 

 

These days, if someone considers they are at very high risk of health complications due to Covid-19 they are also at high risk of health complications due the household fold, influenza and many other illnesses... 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[kickstart]

12 hours ago, daveAustin said:

This tasty headline was likely pushed by the makers of masks and others with an agenda. Who cares? May as well say people will catch a cold.

Talk of masks, the TV reporters on the news this evening, were wearing masks, first time for a long time, as a gentle hint the Thai populist to wear masks. Not that many people in our area have stopped wearing masks. our locale weekly market more wearing masks than not.

[richard_smith237]

10 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Strange thing.... America has more than its fair share of people very much opposed to receiving COVID vaccines and wearing face masks.... and indeed, look what happened to the U.S. COVID death rate.

 

Whereas, people in Thailand were more willing to be vaccinated and continue wearing face masks as recommended by their government, and didn't end up with as bad a COVID death rate as the U.S.

 

Hard to say just what exactly drove what in each situation, but it's at least an interesting contrast. And one that has been noted lately.

 

Traditional values closely linked to following COVID-19 precautions, except in US

 

"A new study from researchers at the University of California-Los Angeles shows the US population's response to COVID-19 precautions stood in sharp contrast to other countries.

 

Worldwide, people who professed to have more traditional or socially conservative values were more likely to adhere to COVID-19 recommendations, but in the United States people with those values were more likely to dismiss such recommendations.

...

"In countries where the discourse around science and trust was less polarized, traditionalists were more willing to embrace precautions than their more socially liberal counterparts," study co-author Daniel Fessler, PhD said. "The U.S., where these topics were highly politicized, suffered more COVID-19 deaths per capita than any other highly developed nation."

 

(more)

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/traditional-values-closely-linked-following-covid-19-precautions-except-us

 

Very interesting....  I also recall reading papers on ‘genetics’ and the potential reasons why ‘South East’ Asians appear to have suffered less, than Caucasians.

 

Then there are all other facets such as politicisation of the numbers and ‘accuracy of reporting’ and polished reporting etc... 

 

The discussion becomes so multifaceted it becomes difficult to handle. 

[richard_smith237]

Friends and their daughter visited yesterday... 

 

The daughter (16 years old) was out in a busy area with her friends for Songkran. 

She had a runny nose and sore throat....  

 

Both my Wife and I joked that she probably had Covid-19....

 

....and that was as much thought as we gave to that...

 

I’m no more worried about contracting Covid-19 (again) than I am about getting a cold. 

 

 

 

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

19 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

Of course, some people are that frightened of covid for valid reason, i.e. they are in a high-risk group or close to someone at high-risk - BUT, I would also argue that such a person is at risk from every respiratory illness and potentially many others and have thus had to moderate their exposure and behaviour even before Covid-19. 

 

Age, 60-65 plus, and various other conditions often associated with age (overweight, high blood pressure, diabetes, etc.) have clearly been shown to be major elevated risk factors for bad COVID outcomes.

 

Considering the primary demographic of this forum, you'd think that members here would be more mindful of the risks they face, and more attentive to doing the things within their control to minimize those risks.

 

Yes, people can also die from things like the flu... But the death rate from COVID, even under Omicron, has far exceeded that from the flu, just as one example.

 

COVID Omicron variant infection deadlier than flu, studies suggest

April 8, 2023

"Two new studies suggest that COVID-19 Omicron variant infection is deadlier than influenza, with one finding that US veterans hospitalized with Omicron in fall and winter 2022-23 died at a 61% higher rate than hospitalized flu patients, and the other revealing that Israeli adults hospitalized with flu were 55% less likely to die within 30 days than those admitted for Omicron in the 2021-22 flu season."

 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-omicron-variant-infection-deadlier-flu-studies-suggest

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, Bday Prang said:

I cannot think of anything on this planet that worries me less or bores me more

And yet here you are in the thread... again and again....

 

It's a rather strange way of showing your disinterest...

 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[richard_smith237]

12 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Age, 60-65 plus, and various other conditions often associated with age (overweight, high blood pressure, diabetes, etc.) have clearly been shown to be major elevated risk factors for bad COVID outcomes.

Those high risk factors for the most part are reversible....

 

I know its anecdotal.. but my father (in his 80’s) was overweight, with high blood pressure and has been type 2 diabetic for 15 years...   He now watches is diet with extreme care and attention and has reversed all three...  (the only thing he can’t reverse is age !)...

 

Obviously some can’t reverse their conditions, but for many, if they are that concerned and wear a mask everywhere, they’d perhaps consider other aspects of their lifestyle, diet and exercise etc.

 

 

17 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

Yes, people can also die from things like the flu... But the death rate from COVID, even under Omicron, has far exceeded that from the flu, just as one example.

 

COVID Omicron variant infection deadlier than flu, studies suggest

Thats interesting to know. 

 

Being in my 40’s and healthy I have been more concerned about contracting Influenza... 

After 3-4 years of ’separation’ I considered that many of us have been separated from influenza for long enough that any remnant immunity from the severity caused by previous strains is absent... 

... i.e. the Flu season would roll around and ‘kick our backsides’.... (this was the reason I took the flu-vaccine for the first time ever). 

 

Conversely, after numerous vaccines and contracting Covid-19 a couple of times I consider I’m carrying more immunity to Covid-19... I may have caught Covid-19 more than a couple of times and simply not noticed it - that said, when the next ’set’ of vaccines are available, I’ll be happy to take one (as its been well over a year).

 

Mask wearing outdoors etc... I don't see any benefit at all (from a virological perspective, from pollution yes).

 

Mask wearing indoors... in restaurants etc, no, the idea of putting on a mask to walk through a restaurant, then sit down and take if off again is preposterous. In a bar, the same thing. 

 

 

On a busy BTS - I think its a good idea to wear a mask (when busy), I’d wear a mask on tube in London too (and thought it was a good idea before Covid !).