Equity Markets

[nigelforbes]

Given that earnings season is under-way and equities markets are responding favourably, I’m wondering how many of you have jumped back in or whether you’re playing a waiting game?

 

Goldmans calculates the chance of US recession this year at 35%, in that events, US equity markets could fall between 20% and 57% (historically). If that happens, contagion will have a knock on effect on the rest of the world. Again, historically, US markets perform best when they return more than 6%, otherwise international markets are the better bet, statstically. Me? I’m half in and half out! 30% in level 5 international equities and underweight USA, 30% in wealth preservation funds, 16% in global trackers and the rest in bonds and cash - no more than 50% in equities in total.

 

The question seems to be whether markets will ignore a recession and keep powering forward, equity markets are after all forward looking and not driven solely by the state of today's economy. The alternative is of course a market fall and the lengthy lead time before recovery. On balance I think markets will keep going, Ukraine wont last forever and the banking crisis appears to have calmed, it even boosted big bank earnings!

 

What do you think?

[StayinThailand2much]

Considering how 'experts' (incl. Goldman Sachs) seem to issue hit-and-miss prognoses that, also, vary widely, I am wondering what the prognoses of AseanNow members are, as they, possibly, may be as right/as wrong as some of the experts...

 

1. Where is the S&P500 on June 30/Dec. 31?

 

2. Where is the NASDAQ on June 30/Dec. 31?

 

3. Chance of a U.S. recession before the end of the year?

 

 

 

 

To answer the OP, I recently sold some U.S. equities in order to, partially, reinvest the proceeds into other assets. (No other equities currently, with equities making up only a fraction of my portfolio.)

Edited April 18, 2023 by StayinThailand2much

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Considering how 'experts' (incl. Goldman Sachs) seem to issue hit-and-miss prognoses that, also, vary widely, I am wondering what the prognoses of Asean Now members are, as they, possibly, may be as right/as wrong as some of the experts...

 

1. Where is the S&P on June 30/Dec. 31?

 

2. Gold Futures price on June 30/Dec. 31?

 

3. Crude Oil (WTI) Futures price on June 30/Dec. 31?

 

4. Exchange rate USDTHB on June 30/Dec. 31?

 

 

 

 

To answer the OP, I recently sold some U.S. equities in order to, partially, reinvest the proceeds into other assets.

You seem to want to pose different questions than me, yours have very little to do with equity markets! If you want your questions answered, please start a thread and ask them there.

[nigelforbes]

13 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Considering how 'experts' (incl. Goldman Sachs) seem to issue hit-and-miss prognoses that, also, vary widely, I am wondering what the prognoses of AseanNow members are, as they, possibly, may be as right/as wrong as some of the experts...

 

1. Where is the S&P500 on June 30/Dec. 31?

 

2. Where is the NASDAQ on June 30/Dec. 31?

 

3. Chance of a U.S. recession before the end of the year?

 

 

 

 

To answer the OP, I recently sold some U.S. equities in order to, partially, reinvest the proceeds into other assets. (No other equities currently, with equities making up only a fraction of my portfolio.)

Now you've edited your post and turned my question into your poll, is that really what you want to do! Dude, where is your head at!!! I've asked the mods to close the thread, that leaves you free to start your own.

Edited April 18, 2023 by nigelforbes

[onthedarkside]

Topic closed on request of OP