Thailand’s export forecast for 2023 suggests 1% growth due to China’s economic recovery

[snoop1130]

Image courtesy of Bangkok Post

 

Thailand’s exports are predicted to experience a 1% increase in 2023, with a more significant improvement anticipated later in the year due to the recovery of China’s economy, according to the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC). In a news conference, council chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk stated that although exports faced a downturn in the first quarter, a resurgence is predicted for the remaining months.

 

Chaichan Chareonsuk noted that the slower contraction of shipments expected in the second quarter is likely to improve during the second half of the year, with increased demand from key markets and China’s economic recovery being major driving factors. He expressed optimism for specific products such as food, agriculture, and vehicles, which are expected to continue performing well.

 

Furthermore, the chairman reported that the total exports in US dollars for the first quarter surpassed expectations, indicating that the worst is behind them. The January-March exports experienced a 4.5% decline in comparison to last year, while the TNSC had initially forecast a 10% reduction. For the second quarter, the group expects a 2.7% yearly decline compared to the previously predicted 4.7% decrease.

 

Full Story: https://thethaiger.com/news/business/thailands-export-forecast-for-2023-suggests-1-growth-due-to-chinas-economic-recovery

 

-- © Copyright Thaiger 2023-05-02

 

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[ThailandRyan]

I thought China was in a Freight Recession

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/economy-is-in-a-freight-recession-with-china-trade-heading-lower.html

 

China’s manufacturing data has seen recent improvement out of its Covid reopening, but Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, says the overall trade data coincides with indicators of global economic contraction.

 

“We’re seeing contractions in global manufacturing PMIs [purchasing managers indexes] and I think it correlates to less spending on goods and the need to work down excess inventories,” Boockvar said.

[hotchilli]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

I thought China was in a Freight Recession

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/economy-is-in-a-freight-recession-with-china-trade-heading-lower.html

 

China’s manufacturing data has seen recent improvement out of its Covid reopening, but Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group, says the overall trade data coincides with indicators of global economic contraction.

 

“We’re seeing contractions in global manufacturing PMIs [purchasing managers indexes] and I think it correlates to less spending on goods and the need to work down excess inventories,” Boockvar said.

I think the TNSC are looking on the bright side of things, not wishing to highlight the real issues and state the doom and gloom ahead.

[zzaa09]

Things are looking up!!!

[RichardColeman]

If the dollar collapses due to a petro-dollar collapse I wonder the forecast

[metisdead]

A post with an unattributed chart has been removed.

[CartagenaWarlock]

18 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

If the dollar collapses due to a petro-dollar collapse I wonder the forecast

The dollar collapse is a big myth. An alternative to dollar by BRIC will take years to have any impact on the dollar. A dollar collapse means collapse of UK pounds, Euro and Japanese Yen also but that will never happen in our lifetime. BRIC is trying to set up a system to prevent the impact of economic embargo by US and Western countries and I really applaud for them for that. For the true competition to emerge, there must by multiple options. 

[webfact]

TNSC says March exports contracted but expects 0-1% growth for entire 2023
by Namo Vananupong

 

BANGKOK (NNT) - Despite exports having started to make a recovery, the value of exports this year has contracted from that of 2022. The Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC) now expects the growth of exports to range between 0 and 1 percent this year.

 

The council is also suggesting that the government keep energy prices at an appropriate level in order to sustain the competitiveness of manufacturers.

 

TNSC Chairman Chaichan Chareonsuk spoke of the situation of Thailand’s international trade in March 2023. He said exports amounted to 27.654 billion USD in March – a 4.2% contraction from the same month in 2022.

 

If exports are valued in Thai baht, however, March’s figure would amount to 942.939 billion baht and represent a 2.2% expansion from the same period in the previous year. Imports, meanwhile, amounted to 24.935 billion USD – a 7.1% contraction from the same month in 2022.

 

If imports are valued in Thai baht, however, March’s figure would amount to 860.535 billion baht – a 1.0% contraction. Based on these figures, Thailand experienced a trade surplus in March.

 

As for the quarterly trade figures for the January to March 2023 period, Mr. Chaichan said Thailand exported 70.280 billion USD in total.

 

This was a 4.5% contraction compared to the same period of the previous year. If exports are valued in Thai baht, the amount would be 2.373 trillion baht and represent a contraction of 1.1%. Imports in the first quarter amounted to 73.324 billion USD – a 0.5% contraction compared to the first quarter of 2022.

 

If imports are valued in Thai baht, the amount would be 2.508 trillion baht and represent an expansion of 2.9%. Based on these figures, Thailand experienced a trade deficit in the first quarter of 2023.

 

Mr. Chaichan said exports in March were better than expected despite a contraction having been experienced. He noted the figures likely meant exporters should be able to pull through during the remaining 9 months of this year.

 

The TNSC predicts that overall exports in 2023 will grow by 0 to 1 percent. Mr. Chaichan said major risk factors for exports include the global economy and the situation of electricity and energy prices.

 

He suggested the state sector manages the FT rate applied to the electricity charge in a way that minimizes impacts on the manufacturing sector and enables it to remain competitive.

 

Source: https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG230503090158508

 

-- © Copyright NNT 2023-05-03

 

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[StayinThailand2much]

Just heard in the news yesterday that China's economic recovery is sputtering...

[BritScot]

If they are mentioning this my guess is the figure is a lot lower. 

[nigelforbes]

Monthly export figures are extremely volatile, some months they appear very low but in other months they are the opposite. In December, exports dropped to USD 20 bill but in March they were close to USD 28 bill., despite which the media reported March 2023 export figures as a drop on a YoY basis. The preceding March, against which March 2023 was being compared, was an all time high so no wonder this March was slightly lower.

 

Public perception of the headline figures being reported is important, Joe Public only needs to read that exports are lower and they stop reading, because at that point they know all there is about the subject - exports are lower, exports fell in value, the economy is going to heck in a ham basket and is collapsing! Yawn.

 

The same is true of freight movements. During covid, shippers hung on to shipping containers because it was a cheap way to store inventory, this resulted in a global shortage which persists until today. Suppliers are slowly burning their way through their excess inventory in these containers but this means freight shippers don't currently have the same volume of business they would otherwise have had, which doesn't mean that shipped products aren't selling. Plus I would argue that looking at freight movements between US and China, the worlds two largest economies, results in an anomaly.  Perhaps it's better to see what the really large Greek shipping lines are doing to get a better read on the state of freight movements. The Baltic Dry Exchange measures the cost of shipping dry freight, if you want to understand supply and demand in freight shipping, this is as a good of an indicator as any - currently, the BEDI is at pre-covid levels.

 

TNSC reports a Thai exports contraction in March 2023, remember, March was the second highest exports volume ever! Is anyone surprised!! TNSC also reports a forecast of 0-1% growth in exports for 2023. Given that 2023 will see the US in or near a recession and global demand still recovering from the impact of covid, 0-1% growth in exports is pretty good in my book, the fact it hasn't gone negative is amazing.

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic

 

https://thainews.prd.go.th/en/news/detail/TCATG230503090158508

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/exports

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by nigelforbes