The Pheu Thai party is expected to win 139 House seats, with a 5% margin of error, in the May 14th general election, but no landslide, according to Super Poll.

 

Assistant Professor Noppadon Kannika, director of the Super Poll Research Office, said today (Friday) that the forecast is based on their 7th opinion poll of 14,332 respondents in various occupations who are over 18, using quantitative and qualitative research and net assessment from May 1st through May 5th.

 

He said that Super Poll gauged the opinions of respondents who have and don’t have cell phones, adding that 75.3 percent of about 37 million eligible voters intend to cast the ballots.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/super-poll-predicts-pheu-thai-will-not-win-a-landslide-but-will-win-most-seats/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2023-05-06

 

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More predictions... 

14 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

More predictions... 

Yeah. All this speculative matter has all become a bit weary. 

Though, a couple of things we might be assured and cautious of.........PT and MV will gain more seats/influence then might be expected........a/o the Old Guard will pull something outta their hat to prevent any other dramatic changes that doesn't favour them - a court injunction, refusing to abide by election results, a commitment to coup activity [don't put it past them], etc....

 

There is change in the air, yet aren't to sure what to think of it.

They won't gain a majority but it won't really matter as one or both of the mooted 'new coalition' parties will be banged up for vote buying, found guilty and dissolved with many of their leading lights either fleeing the country or being banned from politics. Probably both.

 

So, getting back on topic, will it be Prayuth or Prawit? Or maybe we'll see a 'rotational' seat where one starts as PM and the other DPM. Then they'll simply slide back and forth between these posts at regular intervals same as Putin and Medvedev did for years.

And remember.........all this requires a special blessing and approval.

The crux.

139 out of 750 oh dear. That's virtually the same as they got last time (136). Looks like Prayut will be back in power.

Edited May 5, 20233 yr by Henryford

11 minutes ago, Henryford said:

139 out of 750 oh dear. That's virtually the same as they got last time (136). Looks like Prayut will be back in power.

Don't forget the other opposition coalition which might prove a greater showing as a collective [in theory] with PT.

That should block the oligarchs from what they claim to be rightfully theirs. 

If PTP only gets 139 seats that would be an abject failure, a red trickle. No need to dissolve them pre-election IMO.

 

If BJT gets over 100 seats that would be astounding.

 

Put the whistles and clappers back in storage.

 

 

 

 

Should not forget that surprises can come in the shape of an AK-47 shortly after or even before any vote counting takes place ????

29 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

Should not forget that surprises can come in the shape of an AK-47 shortly after or even before any vote counting takes place ????

.....and tanks on the streets.

The show must go on.

I think we are in for pretty much of the same over the coming years.

 

Simply don't see the military ceding anything whatever the outcome of the election.

 

1 hour ago, zzaa09 said:

Don't forget the other opposition coalition which might prove a greater showing as a collective [in theory] with PT.

That should block the oligarchs from what they claim to be rightfully theirs. 

Hell and snowball's come to mind.

42 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

1 hour ago, sammieuk1 said:

Should not forget that surprises can come in the shape of an AK-47 shortly after or even before any vote counting takes place ????

.....and tanks on the streets.

The show must go on.

Are some of our collective still upset that Prayuth's coup is historically the most successful and peaceful one in theoir history with absolutely no need to roll out the tanks or men in green? Everyone knew and mostly agreed that Yingluck's administration was a terminal sh1tshow. Even Yingluck and her acoloytes new this so it was almost inevitable that she would exeunt (be exeunted) the same way as her father. There's no indication of any festering inter regiment or army class rivalry that suggests that the current military management fancy a tilt at sitting in the big chair either.

 

It's going to be like a typical family night out at the movies where some get it, some don't and lot's of popcorn ends up being uneaten.

"Meanwhile, Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, a scholar and lecturer at Harvard University, said there are four post-election possible scenarios."

 

Are we sure he is a lecturer and not a weatherman?

5 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Are some of our collective still upset that Prayuth's coup is historically the most successful and peaceful one in theoir history with absolutely no need to roll out the tanks or men in green?

Why would there have been a need to roll out the tanks or men in green, if in fact he controls them?

 

5 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

Even Yingluck and her acoloytes new this so it was almost inevitable that she would exeunt (be exeunted) the same way as her father.

It's obvious you are the real expert on Thai politics and everything else Thai.

 

Yingluck's FATHER, right?

2 hours ago, bamnutsak said:

If PTP only gets 139 seats that would be an abject failure, a red trickle. No need to dissolve them pre-election IMO.

 

If BJT gets over 100 seats that would be astounding.

 

Put the whistles and clappers back in storage.

 

 

 

 

Party pooper.

 

(not my party)

1 hour ago, Thailand said:

I think we are in for pretty much of the same over the coming years.

 

Simply don't see the military ceding anything whatever the outcome of the election.

 

The most reasonable when one gets right down to it. 

Despite all the dreamy punditry.

1 hour ago, NanLaew said:

Are some of our collective still upset that Prayuth's coup is historically the most successful and peaceful one in theoir history with absolutely no need to roll out the tanks or men in green? Everyone knew and mostly agreed that Yingluck's administration was a terminal sh1tshow. Even Yingluck and her acoloytes new this so it was almost inevitable that she would exeunt (be exeunted) the same way as her father. There's no indication of any festering inter regiment or army class rivalry that suggests that the current military management fancy a tilt at sitting in the big chair either.

 

It's going to be like a typical family night out at the movies where some get it, some don't and lot's of popcorn ends up being uneaten.

Prayuth’s reign has been so catastrophically inept that its single greatest achievement is going to be the firm and lasting impression sledge hammered into the brains of the vast majority of Thais that anything, absolutely anything is better than military rule.

 

Prayuth will spend the rest of his days as a pariah…. and deservedly so.

Edited May 6, 20233 yr by MrMojoRisin

I predict election predictions will continue to be all over the board.....like a 10 meter dart throw.

Elections not producing an outright winner and require coalition with other parties to form the government is very normal is many countries. The obsession in Thailand that you need the military to meddle and break the deadlock must ceased. The military has no business to make decision for the people. I sincerely hope that the Thai people will stand strong against any attempt by the military to interfere with the people’s freedom to make their own decision. 

1 hour ago, Eric Loh said:

Elections not producing an outright winner and require coalition with other parties to form the government is very normal is many countries. The obsession in Thailand that you need the military to meddle and break the deadlock must ceased. The military has no business to make decision for the people. I sincerely hope that the Thai people will stand strong against any attempt by the military to interfere with the people’s freedom to make their own decision. 

the military leans on the scales for the hidden hand to retain control...

 

my wife is predicting that the princess'es passing will be declared very soon and the elections will be postponed for a  year of mandatory mourning. that'll be the easiest way to buy Prayut more time until the economy returns and it's easier to get reelected...

7 hours ago, Henryford said:

139 out of 750 oh dear. That's virtually the same as they got last time (136). Looks like Prayut will be back in power.

But only IF you believe that "Super Poll".

 

There will be more and different polls along later, and you can choose the one you like from them.

5 hours ago, Thailand said:

I think we are in for pretty much of the same over the coming years.

 

Simply don't see the military ceding anything whatever the outcome of the election.

 

They may not get the choice of conceding or not.

1 hour ago, billd766 said:

But only IF you believe that "Super Poll".

 

There will be more and different polls along later, and you can choose the one you like from them.

The only poll that might matter or to be consider will be on the 14th....

1 hour ago, zzaa09 said:

The only poll that might matter or to be consider will be on the 14th....

And that ONLY if the military, EC, CC and the other alphabet soup agencies don't interfere.

 

If they do, then as the old Chinese saying comes to mind,

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times#:~:text="May you live in interesting,of a traditional Chinese curse.

 

"May you  We may live in interesting times" is an English expression that is claimed to be a translation of a traditional Chinese curse. While seemingly a blessing, the expression is normally used ironically; life is better in "uninteresting times" of peace and tranquility than in "interesting" ones, which are usually times of trouble.

8 hours ago, cncltd1973 said:

the military leans on the scales for the hidden hand to retain control...

 

my wife is predicting that the princess'es passing will be declared very soon and the elections will be postponed for a  year of mandatory mourning. that'll be the easiest way to buy Prayut more time until the economy returns and it's easier to get reelected...

Sure.

They always hold a card or two up their sleeve for these occasional instances.

Tradition.

On 5/6/2023 at 11:01 AM, BenStark said:

Why would there have been a need to roll out the tanks or men in green, if in fact he controls them?

 

It's obvious you are the real expert on Thai politics and everything else Thai.

 

Yingluck's FATHER, right?

Maybe you missed some of the EARLIER military-led coups where tanks and soldiers WERE relocated to strategic locations?

 

However, I'll give a slight nod to your highlighting my dynastic inaccuracies.

 

On 5/6/2023 at 12:08 PM, MrMojoRisin said:

Prayuth’s reign has been so catastrophically inept that its single greatest achievement is going to be the firm and lasting impression sledge hammered into the brains of the vast majority of Thais that anything, absolutely anything is better than military rule.

 

Prayuth will spend the rest of his days as a pariah…. and deservedly so.

Because you say so?

 

Right.

1 hour ago, NanLaew said:

Because you say so?

 

Right.

You need wait only 1 week for an answer to what the rest of us already know.

3 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

You need wait only 1 week for an answer to what the rest of us already know.

More of a curious note might be if any of these jokers will be prosecuted for their devious activities over the recent years. 

I'm guessing not. 

It'll be approached as mai phen rai water under the bridge. 

 

 

.....and the core ground will in wait for the next opportunity. Because they can.

If the military have the guts to ban the two leading anti-government parties or commit to a coup post-election, I predict a large percentage of the resilient Thai people will finally have had enough.

The martyrs of the Revolution will surely drown in a river of their own blood at the Democracy Monument and the hearts of the nation will be opened and usher in a new era of prosperity.