19 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

They can write a new constituion but if the senate is the only one according to the constitution who can amend it then how would it be enacted? That's my point. The senate has a complete veto right on every bill and the constitution. It doesn't even matter who the government is.

 

There are only two ways out of this: either they sway enough senators (highly unlikely) or somehow tople the senate, a civil coup which would be very very ugly. It's a very tough situation because the military enshrined their power through the senate into perpetuity pretty much.

That would appear to be the only way forward. Are the people willing to accept X more years of not having their wishes followed upon. Social media tweets will not upset the establishment/army. Boots on the ground and a general strike that affects ... excuse the pun ... the businesses of "generals" or the elite are the only way to twist the knife. They'll only start listening if they're losing big money.

20 minutes ago, wombat said:

I can't think of a country that is democratic...
in oz its voting preferences that screw the popular vote

Nonsense.

Preferential voting is the fairest system there is.

What distorts things in Oz is the difference in the size of electorates (smallest 71k largest 133k). The less populated rural electorates have votes approaching double the value of their urban counterparts.

Does anyone remember that recent statement about "No more coups"?

 

If only gambing was legal in Thailand then we could now all have fun betting on when the next coup will take place.

Who sows the wind reaps the whirlwind!!

Separate millatary from Thai Government , Coup d'etat Jaunta regime will continue ! Thailand had more coups since end of WW11 than any other country in the ???? number 1 for democracy ????????????

There may be other obstacles to Move Forward forming a government. It wouldn't only be senators opposed to the removal of Article 112. It's not Pheu Thai policy or of other parties that would be in a Move Forward coalition. So what should Move Forward do, for example, if PT say you have to put that aside? Is that a compromise Move Forward should make? Some suggestions in the Thai media today that PT may be happy to wait and let Move Forward fail to form a government as it then becomes their chance. 

5 hours ago, h90 said:

Anutin can only with a coalition....which means PTP which means the red shirts. So nothing will explode. But it will look very bad

Anutin is the leader of the BJT.

 

Not only is he not a member of either the MFP or the PTP, neither he nor the BJT, at this point in time, have even been asked to join a MFP/PTP coalition.

 

MFP have refused point blank to even work with ANY ex coalition government political party.

A post with an unattributed posted letter has been removed.  Please provide a verifiable link with the letter if you wish for it to stay in the OP.

5 hours ago, dinsdale said:

PT now hold a lot of power. What will they do. If they form a coalition with MFP and with the other 4 parties then any govt put in by the military will be in minorirty in the House of Reps. A minority govt. cannot survive. If they form a coalition with minor military parties they will lose their voter base as the people who voted for PT were also voting for change. IMO the military are looking for trouble so they can move in with another coup. 

BJT would give them enough seats I think.

Inviting the BJT also means inviting Anutin who will be more trouble that he is worth to the coalition. It would be like bringing a viper to a party.

 

 

5 hours ago, h90 said:

And that was good as Prayut got most of the votes in that election....Now someone else got most votes...

NO he didn't at all.

 

Stop telling lies.

https://prachataienglish.com/node/10365

 

????????????

 

3 hours ago, Celsius said:

I think this is great news and it shows the elections weren't rigged

If they were it didn't work. Now for stage 2 rigging.

34 minutes ago, KhaoNiaw said:

There may be other obstacles to Move Forward forming a government. It wouldn't only be senators opposed to the removal of Article 112. It's not Pheu Thai policy or of other parties that would be in a Move Forward coalition. So what should Move Forward do, for example, if PT say you have to put that aside? Is that a compromise Move Forward should make? Some suggestions in the Thai media today that PT may be happy to wait and let Move Forward fail to form a government as it then becomes their chance. 

They have less seats than MFP so who do they form govt with?

Edited May 16, 20233 yr by dinsdale

The military shouldn't be involved in politics once the government is formed, the military will be controlled by the government

So gas up the tanks, call the generals together and form a coup to "take back" the country from the voters and install a few new generals and back to business as usual.  How dare the Thai people not support the generals who have proven to be so honest and caring and never ever any hint of corruption....SARCASM..

 

Let's appoint a real judiciary and take a look at some of the good generals bank accounts/assets and compare them to the pre coup days......and also take a look at deposits into various accounts by mr red bull.

 

 

8 hours ago, Wiggy said:

Let the games begin. 

 

50 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

They have less seats than MFP so who do they form govt with?

The idea, I believe, (going from listening to the chat on the radio while I was driving home) is that there are other parties who might be willing to form a coalition with PT that senators would be more open to and enable them to form a government. PT can hold their own counsel for now and let MFP get on with trying to form a government. If it works out, they will be part of the government. If it doesn't come to fruition, as the next biggest party it would be their turn. 

So will PT and other potential MFP coalition partners be willing to go along with the repeal of Article 112, for example? Is this a policy that MFP will insist on as a priority? This could apparently be the main stumbling block to MFP forming a government. Supporting MFP in the formation of a government doesn't mean supporting their entire platform. What compromises will they be asking of each other? 

Edited May 16, 20233 yr by KhaoNiaw

9 minutes ago, KhaoNiaw said:

The idea, I believe, (going from listening to the chat on the radio while I was driving home) is that there are other parties who might be willing to form a coalition with PT that senators would be more open to and enable them to form a government. PT can hold their own counsel for now and let MFP get on with trying to form a government. If it works out, they will be part of the government. If it doesn't come to fruition, as the next biggest party it would be their turn. 

So will PT and other potential MFP coalition partners be willing to go along with the repeal of Article 112, for example? Is this a policy that MFP will insist on as a priority? This could apparently be the main stumbling block to MFP forming a government. Supporting MFP in the formation of a government doesn't mean supporting their entire platform. What compromises will they be asking of each other? 

Well the military backing PT is something I would be very suprised to see. And if it happens PT getting in bed with the military will lose their voting public. Next election MFP will have the votes of their own support base and the majority of PT to go with it. Just like the Democrats it would IMO be political suicide.

Edited May 16, 20233 yr by dinsdale

3 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Well the military backing PT is something I would be very suprised to see. And if it happens PT getting in bed with the military will lose their voting public. Next election MFP will have the votes of their own support base and the majority of PT to go with it. Just like the Democrats it would IMO be political suicide.

Yes, I agree completely. Which was the point of yesterday's Thai Enquirer article, telling MFP that they can afford to be patient and wait for the next election if need be. 
https://www.thaienquirer.com/49648/an-open-letter-to-the-move-forward-party/

Disgusting.

11 hours ago, Crossy said:

Is anyone even slightly surprised?

Sadly No ☹️

7 hours ago, Road Warrior said:

LOOKS A BIT LIKE Another army  coup !!!

If this goes south because of the 250 illegitimate military senators then that is exactly what it is.

11 hours ago, Can samui said:

Batten down the hatches folks, there will be blood in the streets.

Not for long. The people have virtually no power...not even to demonstrate. After the Red Shirts, open protest is done. Western protest and then back to the same old, same old. 

11 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

IMO unlikely that the military coalition can be formed as they simply don’t have the numbers even if they employed the old trick to pay MPs to switch side. Prayut and Anutin have indicted leaving politics and Prawit will soon follow with a privy council role. To pacify the ultra conservative senates, Pita may have to step aside for a more acceptable Sreetha. The new regime will ensure no chaos and unrest in his early reign. All

the premonition of unrest and blood unnecessary. 

"... more acceptable Sreetha. ..."

 

Not so sure about that... Sreetha is a Thaksin stooge, and the military are not likley to do anything which in some way supports/recognizes thaksin. 

Edited May 16, 20233 yr by scorecard

11 hours ago, scottiejohn said:

An interesting point!

Do we know who will select the "new" senators?

If there is no coalition government, I could see the current junta

government as appointing themselves as caretakers. Then all bets are off for next year. 

8 hours ago, Anant72 said:

 

Those UNelected old farts are afraid to lose their perks, including getting a salary for doing nothing.

They earn nearly 300,000 baht a month for doing nothing. That is Tax baht we pay.

11 hours ago, dinsdale said:

What senators? Coalition with BJT takes the senators out of the picture. Where do I say I support Anutin for PM? Can you show me? I do wonder if he'll be asking for this in any coalition deal with MFP though.

  I can't see BJT in an agreement to join a coalition government if they aren't if they are left to just be a minority player. 

1 hour ago, Ratchsima said:

They earn nearly 300,000 baht a month for doing nothing. That is Tax baht we pay.

How much tax do you pay per month.?

I agree with the Thai Enqirer, be patient bcs things will somehow work in favour for MF if they just lean back and watch. The senators publicly say they will not support, disqualified them in the eyes of everybody, Many here may think that it all does not matter and business as usual. But I believe that this ‚business‘ now changed. Just that Thailand cannot change that quick. The downturn of the system and ppl that hold it started at the latest now. MF with ‚radical‘ ideas could jump to number one with a non-populist agenda is really something in TH. I assume ist take another 6-10 years to transform if forces like MF stay on an bite the Dinosaurs asses. I would like to ask the ppl here to more analyse the election rather then to predict coups. To all those here saying everything is and stays same I have to say that a change already happened. First time ever a non populist party was there as an alternative to vote. A party with educated leaders and supporters with in the background.

 

From now on all politicians on all parties move on a minefield. All of them. So I am sure at some point all there will realize. However I am hoping that some important figures in that game do not play it dirty and see a chance that they could not be a looser in the long run by getting brain in gear now. 

By analysis I like to start looking at the BKK votes. MF got all except one constituencies. What does this tell you? Think hard about it. The support of the elites for the more elites has vanished. The votes show that clearly. Just read what I just wrote again, to understand what I am talking about. I my opinion that is an important point looking into the next few years.

 

IMHO if Anutin walks with the Dinosaurs it will be his political end, as someone here explained in a post before (compare Abisyt who actually was a capable intellectual fully capable to be good prime minister in theory). That is where the circle closes and why I agree with the Thai Enquirer. MF need to wait as all others will dismantle themselfs slowly but surely as they have no values. 

 

But if it helps and would be possible to get rid of the senators, meaning rewrite the constitution by coalition with Anutin, it should be considered. That is politics, all a bargainig. MF can win in the long term, yes, certainly in the long term,

11 hours ago, dinsdale said:

It will happen if an MFP coalition can form a majority government.

  I am not seeing when I look at the current composition of the House, how MFP can get to 360 w/o the Senate. Unless the coalition is comprised of MFP, PT and BJ for 363 members.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Thai_general_election