Yes, it's real far-fetched. Just look at what's facing business owners. It's very hard to make plans when you've got an erratic President in charge. And lots of small business create designs for product and outsource them to China to be manufactured. There's a huge ecosystem over there that took decades to develop, Where do they go now? A big chunk of machine tools come from China, Where do they go now? Etc... And not just about China. Who knows where tariffs on other nations will be 2 months from now?
Really? Employment was strong. Inflation, while slightly higher than the desired 2% level, was not a threat. Before Trump took office, the consensus of economists was that there wasn't much likelihood of a recession.
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