Nato: Warm words but a diplomatic reality check for Ukraine

[heybruce]

8 hours ago, CharlieKo said:

What about the Minsk agreement which was negotiated with Russia? Only for the west to recently admit it was only to allow Ukraine to arm and train to fight Russia. You think Russia trusts the west in any future negotiations? 

You need to explain and defend your interpretation of the Minsk agreement.

[heybruce]

8 hours ago, sirineou said:

The timeline that led to the invasion of Ukraine from 2008 to 2022 is well documented ,

The west was repeatedly warned that if the west continued toward expansion of NATO into Ukraine it will be viewed by the Russians as a defector declaration of war, by  many including Angela Merkel, and Present time CIA director, and at time ambassador to Russia who said in a leter to Condoles Rice.

"Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all red lines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” Burns added that it was “hard to overstate the strategic consequences” of offering Ukraine NATO membership, which, he predicted, would “create fertile soil for Russian meddling in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. "

Then when Russia invaded the US was surprised. Really? 

Zelinsky should have never involved his country in this misadventure. He will not be viewed favorably by History. 

 

Yet Russia kept pushing Ukraine and other countries to seek NATO membership by invasions and interference in internal affairs.

[heybruce]

9 hours ago, RanongCat said:

So if Ukraine wins warwill it remove all uxb  to "save" people??

I assume you mean all the mines and other unexploded Russian ordnance.  It will all have to be removed.  Payment for that will have to be part of the negotiations.

[heybruce]

9 hours ago, sirineou said:

If they had stayed neutral Russia would never had gone in!! 

So what do you think would happen in the end? 

  No NATO membership but neutrality. But in addition for Russian withdrawal there has to be some sort of Autonomy in the eastern provinces . Do you think Russia  will abandon all the Ethnic Russians after all this bad blood?There are about 5 million Ethnic Russians living in these provinces.  what do you think will happen to them without autonomy and or Russian protection?

So if you think having at the end of a fight what you could have had to begin with, getting bloodied  and losing control of part of their country is a win.. Then I don't know what losing is. 

I

Ukraine was never allowed to be neutral.  In Putin's mind there is no such thing as Ukrainian neutrality, it is either under Russia's thumb or will be a western nation. 

 

NATO membership is the only option for Ukraine, but first it must expel all Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory.

[heybruce]

9 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

You build it into the negotiation of course. Ukraine agrees to forego NATO membership. Russia agrees to pull back to a certain predetermined line. Security guarantees are given by Europe to Ukraine. Russia would not have any need to arm separatists as most of the Russian areas would be under their control anyway. In turn, Russia has sanctions lifted and is allowed to trade with the world. Also pulls Russia from the orbit of China, which is the most important objective there is. 

Asking for regime change in Russia is a pipe dream, and doomed to failure at best. 

Fantasy.

 

Negotiations?  Like the kind that resulted in Ukraine giving up its Soviet nukes in return for security guarantees? 

 

Russia having no need to arm separatists?  It never had the need, it had the desire to recreate the Soviet empire.

 

Russia pulled from China's orbit?   Russia is a corrupt petrol-state on the verge of failure.  China is a rising super power that likes having a dependent Russia protecting its northern border.  Russia has permanently delegated itself to junior partner status in the world order.

[heybruce]

10 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

Perhaps, but HOW will his successor end it? Not a good idea to corner a country with  hundreds of nukes.  Its gonna be a huge mess with potentially catastrophic consequences. I prefer to sacrifice a slice of Ukraine and keep that possibility at bay.  

So one bad dictator is replaced by another bad dictator, one who leaves Ukraine the same way the USSR left Afghanistan.  Why do you think that would lead to Russia going nuclear?

[jvs]

The first batch of cluster bombs has arrived in the Ukraine.

Now put them to good use,they are great to clean trenches in a hurry.

 

[heybruce]

20 minutes ago, jvs said:

The first batch of cluster bombs has arrived in the Ukraine.

Now put them to good use,they are great to clean trenches in a hurry.

 

Wait until there are enough of them to clear a few wide paths through Russian defenses.

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, heybruce said:

Wait until there are enough of them to clear a few wide paths through Russian defenses.

I'm not sure who posted the laughing emoji, but my post was serious.  Cluster bombs figured prominently in the 1991 Highway of Death in Iraq.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death  They are very effective weapons.

[jvs]

So maybe the Ukraine will just take them apart and hang them on drones.

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by jvs

[heybruce]

27 minutes ago, jvs said:

So maybe the Ukraine will just take them apart and hang them on drones.

 

Perhaps.  Ukrainians have shown that they are very good at improvising effective weapons, among other things.

[Jingthing]

Ouch 

 

 

[steven100]

Ukraine continues to make slow progress with every passing day,  the problem is that Russia has had plenty of time to plant literally thousands of land mine in the fields and dragons teeth and UID's and booby traps, trip wires with granades and whatever else you can think of,  all this makes the security of Ukraine personal uneasy and an arduous task to make ground. 

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by steven100

[onthedarkside]

A post making off topic unsubstantiated claims about Muslim migration has been removed

[Tug]

On 7/13/2023 at 4:15 AM, Hanaguma said:

No, they won't lose.  Ukraine is running on fumes. The much touted "spring offensive" accomplished nothing- it is already mid July and no results to speak of. 

If Ukraine wants to commit national suicide, that is up to them. But I have a feeling most would prefer to live in peace with a neighbor that can be held in check.

Oh I donno nato just gained 2 tec savy top tier strong nations Putin’s criminal war of conquest predicated on the exact same excuse hitler used isent going well they have been exposed as corrupt poorly lead and with sub par weapons.Ukraine is not alone she is supported by the free world much like America was when we were founded.the Russian economy is a shambles the populace is pissed Putin just had to put down a mutiny you are dreaming if you think putin can be held in check he needs to be crushed.looks like Ukraine will soon be getting long range missiles that will help disrupting the Russian supply lines and isolating the  Crimea territory russia is trying to steal from Ukraine ???????? salva Ukraine evict the invading criminals 

[Hanaguma]

5 minutes ago, Tug said:

Oh I donno nato just gained 2 tec savy top tier strong nations Putin’s criminal war of conquest predicated on the exact same excuse hitler used isent going well they have been exposed as corrupt poorly lead and with sub par weapons.Ukraine is not alone she is supported by the free world much like America was when we were founded.the Russian economy is a shambles the populace is pissed Putin just had to put down a mutiny you are dreaming if you think putin can be held in check he needs to be crushed.looks like Ukraine will soon be getting long range missiles that will help disrupting the Russian supply lines and isolating the  Crimea territory russia is trying to steal from Ukraine ???????? salva Ukraine evict the invading criminals 

OK, let's use your scenario.   NATO is able to finance and arm Ukraine to the point that Putin is, to use your word, "crushed". What exactly does that mean?  So far the Russians have been playing defense a lot better than they did at offense.  

 

So, Putin is crushed. Russia retreats to.........the prewar border? Prewar border PLUS losing Crimea?  Now, who takes over in Russia- generally when a dictator is overthrown, an even worse dictator takes his place.  Except in Russia the new dictator will have an arsenal of thousands of nuclear weapons at his disposal.  If his country and economy are getting "crushed", what incentive is there for him to show restraint? None whatsoever.

 

I am all for Ukraine winning, but not at the expense of even a limited nuclear exchange. Or a change of leadership in Russia that makes Putin look like Josiah Bartlett. Or permanent damage to the European economy and the food supply that many nations depend on.

[ozimoron]

7 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

OK, let's use your scenario.   NATO is able to finance and arm Ukraine to the point that Putin is, to use your word, "crushed". What exactly does that mean?  So far the Russians have been playing defense a lot better than they did at offense.  

 

So, Putin is crushed. Russia retreats to.........the prewar border? Prewar border PLUS losing Crimea?  Now, who takes over in Russia- generally when a dictator is overthrown, an even worse dictator takes his place.  Except in Russia the new dictator will have an arsenal of thousands of nuclear weapons at his disposal.  If his country and economy are getting "crushed", what incentive is there for him to show restraint? None whatsoever.

 

I am all for Ukraine winning, but not at the expense of even a limited nuclear exchange. Or a change of leadership in Russia that makes Putin look like Josiah Bartlett. Or permanent damage to the European economy and the food supply that many nations depend on.

Another Putin or worse won't have a chance of taking control of Russia. It will be someone who is willing to work with the west. I'm not optimistic because Russia will be required to pay reparations which is why Russia will be pushed out of Crimea. Also because the Ukraine economy can't function well without Crimea.

 

Defeat for Russia is going to look a lot like Germany at the end of ww2. Putin will be dead or tried for war crimes and hung. The west will never ever sign an armistice with a fugitive war criminal.

Edited July 16, 2023 by ozimoron

[Hanaguma]

Just now, ozimoron said:

Another Putin or worse won't have a chance of taking control of Russia. It will be someone who is willing to work with the west. I'm not optimistic because Russia will be required to pay reparations which is why Russia will be pushed out of Crimea. Also because the Ukraine economy can't function well without Crimea.

Reparations... how did that work out after World War One?

 

You might not know much about the Russian people if you think they will accept a squishy pro-Western leader in a moment of national crisis.  Not a chance I would be willing to gamble so much on.

 

Much as it would suck, give Russia a couple token ethnic Russian enclaves in Ukraine in exchange for a peace settlement and some very specific conditions. This way Russia can exit the conflict gracefully.

 

Let the Russian economy get back on its feet and start selling stuff to the west. THAT will make them willing to work with Europe/America and not China. Backing them into a corner may only make things worse.

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Reparations... how did that work out after World War One?

 

You might not know much about the Russian people if you think they will accept a squishy pro-Western leader in a moment of national crisis.  Not a chance I would be willing to gamble so much on.

 

Much as it would suck, give Russia a couple token ethnic Russian enclaves in Ukraine in exchange for a peace settlement and some very specific conditions. This way Russia can exit the conflict gracefully.

 

Let the Russian economy get back on its feet and start selling stuff to the west. THAT will make them willing to work with Europe/America and not China. Backing them into a corner may only make things worse.

There's no graceful exit for Russia until they front justice for their war crimes. Any negotiated settlement will not involve territory for Russia and will involve surrendering those charged with war crimes. The west has never forgiven war criminals.

 

For Russia, this invasion was a catastrophic miscalculation on Putin's part and it will be a total loss for him, his power and his life.

Edited July 16, 2023 by ozimoron

[Hanaguma]

3 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

There's no graceful exit for Russia until they front justice for their war crimes. Any negotiated settlement will not involve territory for Russia and will involve surrendering those charged with war crimes. The west has never forgiven war criminals.

 

For Russia, this invasion was a catastrophic miscalculation on Putin's part and it will be a total loss for him, his power and his life.

The west has not only forgiven war criminals, they actually EMPLOYED them after WW2. 

 

Look, I understand the urge to be righteous and angry and all that, but reality stands in the way. We (western countries) deal with thugs and scumbags all the time, make compromises for the hope of a better result, etc. This is no different.  I think the endgame you envision has "disaster" written all over it.  You simply can't push a nuclear armed superpower into a corner and expect them to just cower and acquiesce.

[ozimoron]

7 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

The west has not only forgiven war criminals, they actually EMPLOYED them after WW2. 

 

Look, I understand the urge to be righteous and angry and all that, but reality stands in the way. We (western countries) deal with thugs and scumbags all the time, make compromises for the hope of a better result, etc. This is no different.  I think the endgame you envision has "disaster" written all over it.  You simply can't push a nuclear armed superpower into a corner and expect them to just cower and acquiesce.

They will, do you think the Russians are suicidal? Do you think they will start a nuclear war over Ukraine? Who among them are that stupid?

[ozimoron]

Ukrainians are just waiting for the inevitable Russian self destruction.

 

Similarly, Putin has abandoned all pretense of responsible fiscal policy, running record budget deficits, printing record amounts of money out of thin air, forcing Russian banks and individuals to buy near-worthless Russian debt, and drawing down Russia’s hundreds of billions in sovereign wealth funds, mortgaging away Russia’s future.

 

Amidst such undisguised plundering of the Russian economy, stripping it down for war toys, it is perhaps no surprise that Prigozhin’s failed putsch this past weekend revealed no lost love for Putin domestically from the Russian populace and elites. After all, not only did military leaders and civilians alike passively wave columns of Wagnerites through checkpoint after checkpoint on the road from Rostov to Moscow without a shred of resistance; even Putin’s own regional governors were lethargic in their response, and even now, a whopping 21 of them have yet to express any support for Putin.

 

https://time.com/6291642/putin-cannibalizes-russian-economy/

[ozimoron]

The argument is that the treaty imposed such humiliating terms on Germany that it led to the rise of Hitler a decade later, and then to the second world war – and defeat of Russia would risk the same trajectory. But it’s misleading to say that defeat will nurture the seeds of future conflict; those seeds are already fully grown. And in reality, the whole war has already been a sequence of humiliations for Russia, centring on the dismal performance of its military and intelligence services and its exposure as an unreconstructed, atavistic, primitive and brutalised threat to Europe.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/27/ukraine-west-vladimir-putin-russia-kyiv-volodymyr-zelenskiy

[Tug]

47 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

OK, let's use your scenario.   NATO is able to finance and arm Ukraine to the point that Putin is, to use your word, "crushed". What exactly does that mean?  So far the Russians have been playing defense a lot better than they did at offense.  

 

So, Putin is crushed. Russia retreats to.........the prewar border? Prewar border PLUS losing Crimea?  Now, who takes over in Russia- generally when a dictator is overthrown, an even worse dictator takes his place.  Except in Russia the new dictator will have an arsenal of thousands of nuclear weapons at his disposal.  If his country and economy are getting "crushed", what incentive is there for him to show restraint? None whatsoever.

 

I am all for Ukraine winning, but not at the expense of even a limited nuclear exchange. Or a change of leadership in Russia that makes Putin look like Josiah Bartlett. Or permanent damage to the European economy and the food supply that many nations depend on.

Putin has allready been crushed he has been humiliated on the battlefield exposed as corrupt weak his military and industry as sub par he has managed to renew and strengthen nato .just so you understand Crimea is not Putin’s to lose he stole it remember?russia needs to rid themselves of putin and change the course that has been forced on them since the time of Stalin and Lenin.personally I’d like to see the Russian nation join the free world and live up to its great potential and stop making war on its neighbors.personally I’m not so sure you are all for Ukraine winning that is not a personal attack it’s just an observation of your discourse over this and other threads that beeing said we are all entitled to our own opinions.personally I think I have a pretty good idea we’re yours lay

[Hanaguma]

3 minutes ago, Tug said:

Putin has allready been crushed he has been humiliated on the battlefield exposed as corrupt weak his military and industry as sub par he has managed to renew and strengthen nato .just so you understand Crimea is not Putin’s to lose he stole it remember?russia needs to rid themselves of putin and change the course that has been forced on them since the time of Stalin and Lenin.personally I’d like to see the Russian nation join the free world and live up to its great potential and stop making war on its neighbors.personally I’m not so sure you are all for Ukraine winning that is not a personal attack it’s just an observation of your discourse over this and other threads that beeing said we are all entitled to our own opinions.personally I think I have a pretty good idea we’re yours lay

You are right about one thing. Ukraine is not my priority. If that country has to make some concessions in order to secure lasting peace, then they should do so. If they need to be 'persuaded', then so be it. They aren't a NATO member, or EU member, or even a floushing democracy.  They are not worth the spectre of an all out war on the European continent.

 

I think it is all rather pointless and a distraction compared to the actual enemy of global security, which of course is China. China looms over everything, and paying too much attention to Russia and Ukraine only benefits them. 

 

Who do you suggest that the Russian people replace Putin with? 

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

You are right about one thing. Ukraine is not my priority. If that country has to make some concessions in order to secure lasting peace, then they should do so. If they need to be 'persuaded', then so be it. They aren't a NATO member, or EU member, or even a floushing democracy.  They are not worth the spectre of an all out war on the European continent.

 

I think it is all rather pointless and a distraction compared to the actual enemy of global security, which of course is China. China looms over everything, and paying too much attention to Russia and Ukraine only benefits them. 

 

Who do you suggest that the Russian people replace Putin with? 

If not Navalny then any of about 20 Russian military commanders.