Fitch affirms Thailand’s BBB+ rating, forecasts GDP and tourism growth

[webfact]

 

Having earned a reputation for shrewd financial forecasting, Fitch Ratings has given Thailand‘s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) a rating affirmation of BBB+ and a stable outlook. The judgement is largely influenced by a balance between the firm’s macroeconomic policy framework and sound external finances, gauged against some structural weaknesses like the lower per capita income and lower World Bank governance scores, as against other ‘BBB’ rated peers.

 

The political uncertainty casting a shadow on Thailand’s credit profile might experience some relief as soon as the enactment of a new prime minister is settled upon in parliament. Despite this, the country’s medium-term growth and fiscal consolidation plans still face possible threats due to demographic crunches.

 

Predictions are swirling that Thailand may see a significant pickup in real GDP growth, from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 3.7 percent in 2023 and 3.8 percent in 2024. An expected recovery of the tourism sector, together with a revival in domestic consumption and a steady recovery of the labour market, is supposed to bolster the country’s economic prospects.

International tourist arrivals in Thailand are anticipated to increase to about 29 million in 2023, nearly three-quarters of their pre-crisis level, from 11.2 million in 2022. This optimistic projection of the tourism recovery outlook rides on the back of China’s quick reopening.

However, an effective policy implementation might face some hurdles in case the new government formation process stretches for several months. That notwithstanding, such a scenario is not expected to cause any major shifts in the government’s principal strategy aimed at economic development.

 

by Alex Morgan

File photo: Bangkok

 

Full story: https://thethaiger.com/news/business/fitch-affirms-thailands-bbb-rating-forecasts-gdp-and-tourism-growth

 

-- © Copyright Thaiger 2023-07-15

 

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[StayinThailand2much]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

This optimistic projection of the tourism recovery outlook rides on the back of China’s quick reopening.

China has been 'open' for about half a year now, but still there are way less Chinese tourists in Thailand than pre-pandemic.

[Cake Monster]

This is the second rating Agency to come out over the last few Days and give Thailand a BBB + rating

I did not think they worked in packs 

Hmm !

[jacko45k]

14 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

This is the second rating Agency to come out over the last few Days and give Thailand a BBB + rating

I did not think they worked in packs 

Hmm !

I kind of believe they work in cahoots, very much so.......

[sammieuk1]

They will get a CCC rating after this PM fiasco and one of them is cluster ????