Time running out for GOP’s Trump alternatives

[Social Media]

 

Time is running out for Republicans searching for an alternative to former President Trump to coalesce around a single candidate as the Iowa caucuses rapidly approach.

The departure of former Vice President Mike Pence was the latest shake-up to the primary and could up the pressure on other low-polling candidates to drop out as well, especially as former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley gains traction and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) popularity shows signs of slipping.

 

But a new Iowa poll of the GOP field also highlights the challenges Republicans face if they want to beat Trump, who continues to dominate the race.

The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released on Monday showed Trump with a 27-point lead over his next closest competitor in the Hawkeye State, which will be the first to vote in the Republican nominating process. That’s an increase from the 23-point lead he had in August. Haley and DeSantis were tied for second at 16 percent, with the former U.N. ambassador gaining 10 points since the same poll in August and the Florida governor slipping 3 points.

The results come as the non-Trump candidates continue to jostle to become the main alternative to the former president, who has built up a substantial lead in key states and nationwide. 

“If you are one of the undercard candidates, the sooner you can go head-to-head with Trump, the better your chances are,” said Iowa-based Republican consultant Nicole Schlinger. 

Candidates have been dropping out throughout the month of October, but they have mostly been minor candidates. Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas), former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, businessman Perry Johnson and former radio host Larry Elder all quit the race within a couple weeks of each other. 

 

FULL STORY

 

[Tug]

Amazing they still follow that flimflam man utterly boggles my mind 

[jerrymahoney]

2 minutes ago, Tug said:

Amazing they still follow that flimflam man utterly boggles my mind 

Yes and while you folks are having a good time with the comeuppance of Mr. Donnie Boy in his criminal and civil trials, on multiple mainstream polls he is shown as beating President Biden in the NOV 2024 election.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/  update d 28OCT2023

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

Yes and while you folks are having a good time with the comeuppance of Mr. Donnie Boy in his criminal and civil trials, on multiple mainstream polls he is shown as beating President Biden in the NOV 2024 election.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/  update d 28OCT2023

Their respective fund raising tally suggests otherwise.

 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/10/15/politics/joe-biden-2024-reelection-fundraising/index.html

[jerrymahoney]

Noted. I hope you are right and the polls are wrong.

 

The US 2024 Presidential election will largely be decided in only 7 swing states.

 

How 2024 Swing-State Voters Feel About the US Economy — In 10 Charts

October 27, 2023

 

Democratic President Joe Biden has sought to make his economic agenda, dubbed “Bidenomics,” the centerpiece of a likely rematch against former President Donald Trump. The economy is top of mind for many Americans, according to an inaugural Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll of swing-state voters, but Biden is facing headwinds in his reelection bid.

 

The vast majority of voters in seven states likely to decide the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election think the economy is heading in the wrong direction. And Trump is leading Biden in five of those seven states, according to the poll, although his lead in each state is within the margin of error.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-key-state-voter-polling/

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by jerrymahoney

[Chomper Higgot]

I think a late switch out of Trump for a right field candidate is likely.

 

 

[jerrymahoney]

4 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I think a late switch out of Trump for a right field candidate is likely.

Hey they just nominated the unknown Mike Johnson as Republican Speaker -- why not for President?

[JonnyF]

5 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I think a late switch out of Trump for a right field candidate is likely.

 

 

 

Wishful thinking.

 

More likely Biden sits himself down somewhere and the Dems get someone who can walk and talk properly.

[Chomper Higgot]

29 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Wishful thinking.

 

More likely Biden sits himself down somewhere and the Dems get someone who can walk and talk properly.

You did read OP, or if not the title of the thread?

[JonnyF]

5 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

You did read OP, or if not the title of the thread?

 

I did. Very enjoyable. You?

[Eric Loh]

57 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I think a late switch out of Trump for a right field candidate is likely.

 

 

Likely as polls don't always reveal the "hidden" votes or 14th Amendement disqualification from ballot or he may go off the deep end and cannot function as his legal problems accelerate. Any of the 3 will be a win for democracy. 

[Georgealbert]

28 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

I did. Very enjoyable. You?

So this week you are back supporting Trump.

 

I post a reminder of what you said last week!

 

See consistency is not a strong point, or are we seeing the same as Trump’s cognitive function issues.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

Wishful thinking.

 

More likely Biden sits himself down somewhere and the Dems get someone who can walk and talk properly.

Yup, it's their only hope, but it does seem likely that the election will be a comedy show on prime time tv between "lyin' Donny" and "stumblin' in Joe".

Get the popcorn ready boys, and I'm really hangin' out for the debates ( if the bumbler in chief is allowed out to play without his handlers ).

If I'm really lucky the debates will be between "loudmouth Don" and "was I supposed to fix the southern border? harris".

Edited October 31, 2023 by thaibeachlovers

[Berkshire]

I know people are worried about Trump returning as POTUS.  I'm still not too worried.  Reason is there's almost no way Trump can win over the majority of independents.  MAGA may not care that Trump is an indicted felon, but independents do.  Not to mention moderate Republicans....like this guy.

 

[Leon Cooperman, the hedge fund billionaire who has famously clashed with Sen. Elizabeth Warren over her proposed wealth tax, is cautioning voters against returning Donald Trump to the White House.]

[“It would be terrible for the country if Donald Trump were reelected,” Cooperman told CNN in a phone interview late last week. “He’s a divisive human being who belongs in jail.”]

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/30/investing/leon-cooperman-trump-biden/index.html

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

I know people are worried about Trump returning as POTUS.  I'm still not too worried.  Reason is there's almost no way Trump can win over the majority of independents.  MAGA may not care that Trump is an indicted felon, but independents do.  Not to mention moderate Republicans....like this guy.

 

[Leon Cooperman, the hedge fund billionaire who has famously clashed with Sen. Elizabeth Warren over her proposed wealth tax, is cautioning voters against returning Donald Trump to the White House.]

[“It would be terrible for the country if Donald Trump were reelected,” Cooperman told CNN in a phone interview late last week. “He’s a divisive human being who belongs in jail.”]

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/30/investing/leon-cooperman-trump-biden/index.html

Some consider the real criminals to be mega rich people, but that's probably deserving of it's own thread.

[Berkshire]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

Some consider the real criminals to be mega rich people, but that's probably deserving of it's own thread.

I know you're trying to attack the guy quoted, but you forgot that a certain D. Trump considers himself "mega rich"....although that's quite debatable these days. 

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, jerrymahoney said:

Noted. I hope you are right and the polls are wrong.

 

The US 2024 Presidential election will largely be decided in only 7 swing states.

 

How 2024 Swing-State Voters Feel About the US Economy — In 10 Charts

October 27, 2023

 

Democratic President Joe Biden has sought to make his economic agenda, dubbed “Bidenomics,” the centerpiece of a likely rematch against former President Donald Trump. The economy is top of mind for many Americans, according to an inaugural Bloomberg News and Morning Consult poll of swing-state voters, but Biden is facing headwinds in his reelection bid.

 

The vast majority of voters in seven states likely to decide the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election think the economy is heading in the wrong direction. And Trump is leading Biden in five of those seven states, according to the poll, although his lead in each state is within the margin of error.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-us-election-key-state-voter-polling/

 

But what we have seen in the off-year elections is that Democrats have strongly outperformed whatthe polls predict. The abortion issue has proven to be a very potent aid to the Democrats.

[thaibeachlovers]

10 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

I know you're trying to attack the guy quoted, but you forgot that a certain D. Trump considers himself "mega rich"....although that's quite debatable these days. 

You assume that I support Trump personally. That would be a mistake. I only support him as a Washington disruptor. Had he never become POTUS my support would have been non existent for him.

Before he was back stabbed by the establishment my support was for Bernie as a Wall Street critic, and I've said that many times in the past on this forum.

[thaibeachlovers]

double post

Edited October 31, 2023 by thaibeachlovers

[Chomper Higgot]

20 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You assume that I support Trump personally. That would be a mistake. I only support him as a Washington disruptor. Had he never become POTUS my support would have been non existent for him.

Before he was back stabbed by the establishment my support was for Bernie as a Wall Street critic, and I've said that many times in the past on this forum.

Trump was not a Washington Disrupter.

 

His administration accelerated the neoliberal Republican policies transferring wealth from ordinary working people into the hands of the hyper wealthy to whom he handed tax breaks at cost to the Federal programs that support the rest of America.

 

He delivered for the 1% at the cost of everyone else.

 

He did exactly what every Republican President since Regan has done, stiff blue collar and middle class Americans and pay out to the hyper wealthy who own the GOP.

 

“Washington Disrupter” he obviously suckered you too.

 

[earlinclaifornia]

 

 

 

If they were serious about winning in 2024, then the hopefuls all should converges around just one person who the independents will support. But the truth is they will rather trust the loser known as Trump.

 

 

 

 

Steve Kornacki: A tie for second place in Iowa with DeSantis and Haley.

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by earlinclaifornia

[Georgealbert]

42 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You assume that I support Trump personally. That would be a mistake. I only support him as a Washington disruptor. Had he never become POTUS my support would have been non existent for him.

Before he was back stabbed by the establishment my support was for Bernie as a Wall Street critic, and I've said that many times in the past on this forum.

I have to stop reading these posts during my coffee break, too much risk of spillage.

 

Another Trump fan in denial. Every day you post pro Trump propaganda and now claim you don't support him.

 

555555

 

 

[jerrymahoney]

58 minutes ago, placeholder said:

But what we have seen in the off-year elections is that Democrats have strongly outperformed whatthe polls predict. The abortion issue has proven to be a very potent aid to the Democrats.

From that same above Bloomberg swing-state poll:

 

[candide]

Trump said: “So with all those losers out there that say – ‘Trump never got the –’ you remember, I used to say, ‘Mexico will pay for the piece of the wall.’” 😃

 

Fact check: Trump falsely claims he’d promised Mexico would pay for ‘a piece’ of the border wall

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/30/politics/fact-check-trump-mexico-piece-border-wall/index.html

 

[candide]

5 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

From that same above Bloomberg swing-state poll:

 

It is a bit paradoxal. One the one hand, they are worried by, and unsatisfied with their economic situation, but on the other hand (as noticed by someone from the Fed) they don't behave like people fearing the economic situation: consumption is steadily growing and businesses go on recruiting employees.

[Tug]

8 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

From that same above Bloomberg swing-state poll:

 

How about that GDP?polls are wildly inaccurate this far out from a presidential race yes we know Joe Biden is elderly but he and our team are achieving REAL results.of course nobody likes high interest rates it sucks but real presidents put the country’s needs before their own personal needs.best GDP of all the developed nations hummm……….time may indeed be running out for the entire GOP they may well find themselves in the minority in all 3 branches of government!

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

From that same above Bloomberg swing-state poll:

 

One problem with that kind of questioning is that it only allows one issue per voter. And, as the bye-elections show, democrats have strongly outperformed the polling. Possibly millenials and generation Z members, who tend to skew left, are being underrepresented in the polls.

[jerrymahoney]

To the tag-team above:

 

OCTOBER 26, 2023
Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37%

 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Joe Biden’s job approval rating among Democrats has tumbled 11 percentage points in the past month to 75%, the worst reading of his presidency from his own party. This drop has pushed his overall approval rating down four points to 37%, matching his personal low.

 

At the same time, Biden’s approval among independents has declined four points, to 35%, while Republicans’ rating remains unchanged, at just 5%.

 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/513305/democrats-ratings-biden-slip-overall-approval.aspx

[Tug]

2 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

To the tag-team above:

 

OCTOBER 26, 2023
Democrats' Rating of Biden Slips; Overall Approval at 37%

 

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Joe Biden’s job approval rating among Democrats has tumbled 11 percentage points in the past month to 75%, the worst reading of his presidency from his own party. This drop has pushed his overall approval rating down four points to 37%, matching his personal low.

 

At the same time, Biden’s approval among independents has declined four points, to 35%, while Republicans’ rating remains unchanged, at just 5%.

 

https://news.gallup.com/poll/513305/democrats-ratings-biden-slip-overall-approval.aspx

Tag team?im just stating my opinion based on what’s happening and my sense of what’s morally correct the hard medicine they are giving the economy to get things back on track is unpopular I’m personally wanting to buy an rv rite now the cost to borrow some of the money is to much ok,that’s disappointing oh well….I have the maturity to accept it as nessary to tame inflation folks that want to buy a home……all unpopular but that’s what a real leader does despite the drop in popularity 

[jerrymahoney]

I agree. Polls are unreliable one year out from the general election especially when they don't say what you'd like them to say.

 

My favorite unreliable polls were those that preceded the 2016 general election when the discussion was whether Hillary Clinton should be addressed as  Madame President or not. I was caught flat-footed on that under-estimation of DJ Trump and I am not going let it happen again.