Brexit has completely failed for UK, say clear majority of Britons – poll

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/30/britons-brexit-bad-uk-poll-eu-finances-nhs

[youreavinalaff]

Just over 2000 polled.

 

Not a clear majority of Britons.

 

A majority of those polled, by the Guardian, at an unknown location, of an unknown age, background.........the list goes on.

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Just over 2000 polled.

 

Not a clear majority of Britons.

 

A majority of those polled, by the Guardian, at an unknown location, of an unknown age, background.........the list goes on.

Not polled by the Guardian. 

Here's the first paragraph of the article you most likely didn't read:

 

"A clear majority of the British public now believes Brexit has been bad for the UK economy, has driven up prices in shops, and has hampered government attempts to control immigration, according to a poll by Opinium to mark the third anniversary of the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union."

 

 

And if you're going to allege that Opinium are biased in their polling you should chew on this:

"Opinium's most recent success in political polling came at the 2019 UK General Election where they were the most accurate agency,[8] calling the actual results. In the 2016 EU Referendum, Opinium were the only agency to predict the eventual outcome with the smallest error.[9"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinium_Research

 

And your comment about "just 2000 polled" is just plain silly.

 

 

 

 

 

[Stocky]

6 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Just over 2000 polled.

 

Not a clear majority of Britons.

 

A majority of those polled, by the Guardian, at an unknown location, of an unknown age, background.........the list goes on.

No. It was a survey carried out for The Observer by the independent research company Opinium

[youreavinalaff]

Just now, placeholder said:

Not polled by the Guardian. 

Here's the first paragraph of the article you most likely didn't read:

 

"A clear majority of the British public now believes Brexit has been bad for the UK economy, has driven up prices in shops, and has hampered government attempts to control immigration, according to a poll by Opinium to mark the third anniversary of the UK leaving the EU single market and customs union."

 

 

And if you're going to allege that Opinium are biased in their polling you should chew on this:

"Opinium's most recent success in political polling came at the 2019 UK General Election where they were the most accurate agency,[8] calling the actual results. In the 2016 EU Referendum, Opinium were the only agency to predict the eventual outcome with the smallest error.[9"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinium_Research

 

And your comment about "just 2000 polled" is just plain silly.

 

 

 

 

 

I could quite easily do a poll and get opposite answers. 

 

Those taking out opinion polls carefully choose thier audience. That way they get the answers they want.

 

I believe your link showed a poll of 2132. That's just over 2000.

 

Citing Wikipedia is just plain silly.

[youreavinalaff]

2 minutes ago, Stocky said:

No. It was a survey carried out for The Observer by the independent research company Opinium

OK. So, as reported in the Guardian. 

[Stocky]

7 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I could quite easily do a poll and get opposite answers. 

 

Those taking out opinion polls carefully choose thier audience. That way they get the answers they want.

 

I believe your link showed a poll of 2132. That's just over 2000.

 

Citing Wikipedia is just plain silly.

You could do it that way but you'd have little credibility. Opinium don't do it that way according to their blurb on methodology, and from the various awards they've garnered then you'd have to say they have credibility.

 

Quote

Our methodology starts with a nationally representative sample based on demographics and adds in a series of questions to make it politically representative as well, building on the lessons learnt from our experience over four UK general elections, two London Mayoral campaigns, three referendums and two sets of European Parliament elections.

 

While our political team have a diverse range of political leanings as individuals, as a company Opinium is politically neutral and our only commitment is to providing accurate and impartial research to raise the level of understanding in political conversations.

Source: https://www.opinium.com/political-polling/

 

.

Edited January 1 by Stocky

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I could quite easily do a poll and get opposite answers. 

 

Those taking out opinion polls carefully choose thier audience. That way they get the answers they want.

 

I believe your link showed a poll of 2132. That's just over 2000.

 

Citing Wikipedia is just plain silly.

Yes, you could do such a poll. But you wouldn't be able to make a living at it if your results proved to be consistently wrong. As I pointed out, this polling company accurately predicted the Conservative victory in 2019 and came closest to predicting the outcome of the 2016 Brexit election. It's a business.

There's a footnote to that Wikipedia quote. But I guess you didn't bother to read that bit either.

[youreavinalaff]

6 minutes ago, Stocky said:

You could do it that way but you'd have little credibility. Opinium don't do it that way according to their blurb on methodology, and from the various awards they've garnered then you'd have to say they have credibility.

 

 

.

I don't recall them confirming the demographics. Please link to them so I can take a look. 

 

Thanks.

[youreavinalaff]

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Yes, you could do such a poll. But you wouldn't be able to make a living at it if your results proved to be consistently wrong. As I pointed out, this polling company accurately predicted the Conservative victory in 2019 and came closest to predicting the outcome of the 2016 Brexit election. It's a business.

There's a footnote to that Wikipedia quote. But I guess you didn't bother to read that bit either.

Indeed there is a footnote. Well done.

 

However, Wikipedia, by name, is a site that can be edited by anyone with out linking to any factual source.

 

I know how you like a link. I'm surprised you used a source that cannot be backed up.

Edited January 1 by youreavinalaff

[Stocky]

2 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I don't recall them confirming the demographics. Please link to them so I can take a look. 

 

Thanks.

I gave the link in the previous post

 

https://www.opinium.com/political-polling/

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Indeed there is a footnote. Well done.

 

However, Wikipedia, by name, is a site that can be edited by anyone with out linking to any factual source.

 

I know how you like a link. I'm surprised you used a source that cannot be backed up.

I got some exciting news for you. Footnotes in Wikipedia can link. 

Here are the links:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50777965

 

https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/performance-of-the-polls-in-the-eu-referendum/

[scottiejohn]

27 minutes ago, Stocky said:

No. It was a survey carried out for The Observer by the independent research company Opinium

Not quite!

The agency also works in the political space and conducts political polls on behalf of The Guardian!

Opinium Research - Wikipedia

They also seem to pay for "your Opinion"!

Opinium Research Reviews | Read Customer Service Reviews of www.opinium.co.uk (trustpilot.com)

Edited January 1 by scottiejohn

[youreavinalaff]

4 minutes ago, Stocky said:

I gave the link in the previous post

 

https://www.opinium.com/political-polling/

So, in this particular poll what was the age band, employment status, area of UK, political thinking, sex, financial situation, education background of those polled?

[The Cyclist]

Or

 

Brexit has failed because too many are still in shock that it actually happened, and are doing their utmost to ensure that it has no chance of success.

 

The only true path is to rejoin the EU in their warped minds.

[youreavinalaff]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

I got some exciting news for you. Footnotes in Wikipedia can link. 

Here are the links:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50777965

 

https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/performance-of-the-polls-in-the-eu-referendum/

I've got some exiting news.

 

Anyone can edit Wikipedia without citing a source. Therefore, content cannot be confirmed as fact.

 

 

[chickenslegs]

Just my comment on the way the poll is presented in the chart.

 

Total % of people choosing the good impact/bad impact options in each category is a lot less than 100%. In each category (top to bottom of list): 70, 63, 45, 50, 46, 45, 63, 65, 55, 70.

 

So there must have been more than just those 2 options. If a third option was "no impact" that would alter the overall nuance (IMO). For example: Category 5 - Salaries and wages

Good impact = 11%

Bad impact = 39%

No impact = 50%

Result: Most people are no worse off.

 

Yes I did choose that category to illustrate my point, but it applies to all.

 

No, I did not and do not support Brexit.

[placeholder]

5 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I've got some exiting news.

 

Anyone can edit Wikipedia without citing a source. Therefore, content cannot be confirmed as fact.

 

 

Maybe anyone can edit Wikipedia without citing a source. But in this case sources were not only cited but linked to. Why is that so difficult for you to understand?

[youreavinalaff]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Maybe anyone can edit Wikipedia without citing a source. But in this case sources were not only cited but linked to. Why is that so difficult for you to understand?

It's not.

I'm wondering why you did not link to the sources cited. That would make your claims more plausible.

[placeholder]

Just now, youreavinalaff said:

It's not.

I'm wondering why you did not link to the sources cited. That would make your claims more plausible.

I'm wondering why you didn't look at the article before raising the issue of sources. You would have found the links. At any rate, the links have been posted. 

[placeholder]

If you follow this link, you'll find that for its final 2 polls beford the Brexit referendum Opinium had the pro-Brexit vote slightly ahead, with 11% and 12% undecided.

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

[Regyai]

Poll only shows the clear inability of Joe Public to understand that it's not 'Brexit' at fault but the clear inability of spineless/unwilling politicians to utilise the given opportunity handed them on a plate.

[youreavinalaff]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

I'm wondering why you didn't look at the article before raising the issue of sources. You would have found the links. At any rate, the links have been posted. 

I don't bother reading links to Wikipedia, for reasons already stated.

[youreavinalaff]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

If you follow this link, you'll find that for its final 2 polls beford the Brexit referendum Opinium had the pro-Brexit vote slightly ahead, with 11% and 12% undecided.

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

Does it state the demographics? If not, I won't bother.

[Yellowtail]

31 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Yes, you could do such a poll. But you wouldn't be able to make a living at it if your results proved to be consistently wrong. As I pointed out, this polling company accurately predicted the Conservative victory in 2019 and came closest to predicting the outcome of the 2016 Brexit election. It's a business.

There's a footnote to that Wikipedia quote. But I guess you didn't bother to read that bit either.

How would you be proven wrong? 

 

The only way to make money on polls is to sell them. If they're in the newspaper, the people that bought them told the pollster what they wanted. 

[placeholder]

Just now, youreavinalaff said:

Does it state the demographics? If not, I won't bother.

Right. Professional pollsters don't understand statistics or just make their selections up. You've got nothing

[Woof999]

57 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Just over 2000 polled.

 

Not a clear majority of Britons.

 

A majority of those polled, by the Guardian, at an unknown location, of an unknown age, background.........the list goes on.

 

Are you suggesting that Brexit has been in any way positive for the UK?

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

How would you be proven wrong? 

 

The only way to make money on polls is to sell them. If they're in the newspaper, the people that bought them told the pollster what they wanted. 

That's why it's best to look at their track record. And given that the polls seem to unanimously show Brexit is unpopular, your point seems untenable.

 

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/987347/brexit-opinion-poll/

 

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, Woof999 said:

 

Are you suggesting that Brexit has been in any way positive for the UK?

The poll has nothing to do with the actual impact of Brexit. It only intends/pretends to show what the public's perception of what the impact of Brexit has been. How is the public's perception influenced? As often as not by a newspaper poll of public perception. 

[placeholder]

12 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I don't bother reading links to Wikipedia, for reasons already stated.

Most articles in Wikipedia are rich in footnotes and links. It's clear why you don't read it.