The Investing Year Ahead

[UKresonant]

1 hour ago, Mike Lister said:

 

Interesting you're 30% int equ/70% MA

 

I'm 35% int equ/35% trackers and 22% bonds +8% cash.

 

A similar end result, just a different way to get there.

 

Are you using VG Life for your MA's? I unloaded BNY Melon Balanced which was making an OK return but it was never going to generate more than  a 50% return over 5 years and I felt I could do better with the same risk.

The 70MA/ 30intEq were the disposal funds for the switch to equal the linker fund buy...

 

Will have to tally up my overall allocation after a few changes...

[UKresonant]

11 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

 

Interesting you're 30% int equ/70% MA

 

I'm 35% int equ/35% trackers and 22% bonds +8% cash.

 

A similar end result, just a different way to get there.

 

Are you using VG Life for your MA's? I unloaded BNY Melon Balanced which was making an OK return but it was never going to generate more than  a 50% return over 5 years and I felt I could do better with the same risk.

 

Did a quick breakdown of my 3 most significant portfolios, machine said (oh, almost no trackers in that lot);-

 

[swissie]

On 5/14/2024 at 4:55 AM, Yellowtail said:

Did gold not used to be negatively correlated to equities? Now both are at all-time highs and growing. 

 

Again, I think a lot of analysis is out the window. 

In todays market, it seems that "interest-rates" is the dominating factor. Everything else is just a "side-dish".

Lower interest rates means more "liquidity". This liquidity can go into stocks as well as Gold. (or the purchase of fancy underwear).

Once the "mesmerisation" of declining interest rates takes a backseat and other factors gain weight again, the "tandem-run" of Stocks and Gold may come to an end.  

[swissie]

The November elections in the US will decide, how the world will "function" afterwards.

Always keeping in mind that US voters vote by their wallet. Should inflation / gas prices should stay high, combined with a possible slowdowdown of the economy, chances are that a change of governement takes place.

How would this affect your investments / your portfolio?

[Yellowtail]

10 hours ago, swissie said:

The November elections in the US will decide, how the world will "function" afterwards.

Always keeping in mind that US voters vote by their wallet. Should inflation / gas prices should stay high, combined with a possible slowdowdown of the economy, chances are that a change of governement takes place.

How would this affect your investments / your portfolio?

Would it no depend on the change? 

[swissie]

On 5/20/2024 at 2:32 AM, Yellowtail said:

Would it no depend on the change? 

Again: "How would this affect your investments / your portfolio?" Spill your guts. I am no good at deciphering cryptic messages.

[Robert Paulson]

I don’t think it’s wise to keep money in the market right now. As Alexander Delarge said a little of the ol in out in out may be ok 

[swissie]

19 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

I don’t think it’s wise to keep money in the market right now. As Alexander Delarge said a little of the ol in out in out may be ok 

It's called "trading". My trading platform is very honest. Disclosing that 76% their retail trading-customers lose money year after year. So, who is winning? The big "trading houses" (Banks, Insurance companies, funds) that have constantly new funds coming in, enabeling them to "average down" until the cows come home.

[Yellowtail]

14 hours ago, swissie said:

Again: "How would this affect your investments / your portfolio?" Spill your guts. I am no good at deciphering cryptic messages.

 

Nor am I. Your post:  

"The November elections in the US will decide, how the world will "function" afterwards.

Always keeping in mind that US voters vote by their wallet. Should inflation / gas prices should stay high, combined with a possible slowdowdown of the economy, chances are that a change of governement takes place.

How would this affect your investments / your portfolio?"

 

I asked: "Would it not depend on the change?" 

 

If Biden stays in and the left holds the Senate and takes the House, I'd go 70% US equities, go heavy on defense and residential real estate and light on heathcare. I'd keep my ~10% gold and move the remaining to Thailand in cash. 

[GarryP]

Interesting reading what you are doing. Having lived and worked in Thailand for the past 40 odd years, I no longer have an overseas accounts so all my savings have been done locally, i.e. via local banks and fund managers, despite the high fees charged on mutual funds here. 

[paddypower]

On 5/23/2024 at 3:46 PM, GarryP said:

Interesting reading what you are doing. Having lived and worked in Thailand for the past 40 odd years, I no longer have an overseas accounts so all my savings have been done locally, i.e. via local banks and fund managers, despite the high fees charged on mutual funds here. 

any infrastructure funds?

[GarryP]

35 minutes ago, paddypower said:

any infrastructure funds?

Just one and it has performed terribly since covid hit. I'll be cashing out when my losses are not so severe (TMBPIPF). I also cashed out of a Thai based mutual fund as I think the Thai market is isn't going to improve any time soon and reinvested the money in an international fund I am already holding. 

[Stevie559]

Hey I"m a former (retired) AI entrepreneur. The bubble is already busting - so be SUPER careful. The technology in question you need to research - read 'We have no moat' by Google, it was written a while back, and google itself admits, given the tech is basically mature at this point, there's NOTHING they can do to be competitive. Cue them faking demos out of desperation. I'd stay well clear - when people realize chatGPT is getting neutered and has no room to grow, they will put their hope into image generation. Stability AI is collapsing (ceo is gone, look it up) , and the smaller companies are running on fumes. 

 

Evidently, from the outside, i'm sure it looks glorious, but trust me the heydays were 7 years ago, when people like me were launching AI business left right and center. Now you're chasing the puck where it is, not where it will be (to quote Jobs)

[GarryP]

20 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Thailand is not a very stable country.  I wouldn't have all my life savings here.  

The only funds I have left in Thailand based mutual funds are in tax saving funds but I will be cashing out soon and re-investing in overseas funds, although through Thailand based fund companies. I don't have any hopes of improvement in the Thailand economy in the short term. 

[Mike Lister]

Off topic post removed. This thread is about investing and investments.

[Yellowtail]

3 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

You have no "right" to reside here.  You have a visa that can be revoked at anytime, either individually, or collectively, meaning for every expat. 

 

Also, the requirements for the retirement visa can change at any time, and you may personally not be able to meet the new requirements.  It could be something simple like raising the retirement visa age from 50 to 60, or raising the 800k to 1.5 million baht etc etc.  

 

Just look at the tax policy for 2024.  It MAY see many have to leave Thailand, some permanently, some for 6 months of the year.  If they have a property here, they may now only be able to live in it 6 months of the year, or sell it at a loss, or pay a lot of tax to remain living full time in Thailand. 

 

You money / property can stay in Thailand, but you may not be able to. On that basis, Thailand is not a wise place to invest in. 

 

For me, I'm not concerned with what returns I may be able to get if I have no "right" to permanently live in the country.

 

I haven't even touched on things like having to return home for extensive medical care etc.  Like I said, the reasons are numerous. 

 

At its very basic, cash at bank, look at the pittance the Thai banks pay in interest.  I can get 5% in a bank in my home country.  So, apart from the above, in many sectors, Thailand doesn't even offer a competitive return on a similar investment in my home country.  Property being another one, with capital gain and rental return offering a better return on investment than I can get in Thailand. 

 

You obviously disagree, so tell me why you believe Thailand represents a good investment, with the focus being on foreigners here? 

You claim was: "As a foreigner, the words "Thailand" and "investing" should not be used in the same sentence."

 

I have a wife and son in Thailand, and even if I did not, any investment I might have here could be liquidated in the event I wanted to leave. I am not worried about my visa, If I lose it, I'll move back to the states. There are still plenty of nice places to live there. 

 

Most of your reasoning makes little sense. What does having to fly home for medical care have to do with anything investment wise? 

 

I invest in international funds that include any number of countries where I would "...have no "right" to permanently live in the country.", does that make international funds a bad investment? Silly. 

 

That the bank in Thailand pays less in interest than the bank in your home country, or that capital gains on real property in your county is better than in Thailand may make investing there a better idea for you than storing cash or buying real estate in Thailand, but it does not make investing in Thailand the terrible risk you want to make it out to be.

 

Much of what you say I agree with. My brokerage account is in the US as is most of my cash. I am not advocating investing in Thailand, but I think claiming/implying one would be a fool to invest here or keep money here is wrongheaded. 

 

We live in a building that's worth about 150% of what we paid for it about ten years ago. Over that same ten years, my US investments have more than tripled, but that does not make our home a bad investment any more than drawing 4-5% in my US bank (now) make the 1.5-3% we draw in the Thai bank a bad investment. 

 

Incidentally, I seem to recall that the Thai banks were paying much better interest than were the US banks not that long ago. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Mike Lister]

I've removed a series of off topic posts. If you don't mind I'm going to reclaim the thread that I started, the purpose of which and the title of are, investing, not what's wrong with Thailand, not visa's nor any of the other unrelated topics that were being discussed. 

 

Please stay on topic and don't wander. If you want to talk about those things, start a thread for that purpose.

[Thailand J]

I held a 3 funds portfolio for decades: VOO, VTI and VYM.

About 10 years ago I put my cash into BRK/A . Also sold VYM and bought VGT, dividend is just a gimmick.

This is my YTD and 5 yr returns:

 

[Thailand J]

At mid year S&P 500 is above 5200, the level which was the market analysts' end of 2024 forecast.

Yardeni now put it at 5400 at the end of the year, and in a TV interview claimed it could be 8000 in 2030.

 

[KhunHeineken]

On 6/1/2024 at 5:54 AM, Yellowtail said:

You claim was: "As a foreigner, the words "Thailand" and "investing" should not be used in the same sentence."

 

I have a wife and son in Thailand, and even if I did not, any investment I might have here could be liquidated in the event I wanted to leave. I am not worried about my visa, If I lose it, I'll move back to the states. There are still plenty of nice places to live there. 

 

Most of your reasoning makes little sense. What does having to fly home for medical care have to do with anything investment wise? 

 

I invest in international funds that include any number of countries where I would "...have no "right" to permanently live in the country.", does that make international funds a bad investment? Silly. 

 

That the bank in Thailand pays less in interest than the bank in your home country, or that capital gains on real property in your county is better than in Thailand may make investing there a better idea for you than storing cash or buying real estate in Thailand, but it does not make investing in Thailand the terrible risk you want to make it out to be.

 

Much of what you say I agree with. My brokerage account is in the US as is most of my cash. I am not advocating investing in Thailand, but I think claiming/implying one would be a fool to invest here or keep money here is wrongheaded. 

 

We live in a building that's worth about 150% of what we paid for it about ten years ago. Over that same ten years, my US investments have more than tripled, but that does not make our home a bad investment any more than drawing 4-5% in my US bank (now) make the 1.5-3% we draw in the Thai bank a bad investment. 

 

Incidentally, I seem to recall that the Thai banks were paying much better interest than were the US banks not that long ago. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I had a post setting out more detail deleted, so no point posting again.

 

I'll just say, my physical presence doesn't dictate where I invest, that would be ridiculous. 

 

Also, you mentioned "risk."  That's what investing is all about, risk versus reward.  On that basis, why would anyone invest in Thailand where the risk is higher, and the reward is lower? 

 

You don't even get near a bank interest rate here, compared to western countries.  Why bother putting any money into the place? 

[Thailand J]

Unbelievable. NVIDIA closed at $1224 per share ahead of 10:1 stock split.

I bought another 250 sh last week at $1148. Together with the 440 sh I bought at $598 in January, my 690 shares will become 6900 shares next week, though the total value will stay about the same, depending on the market..

Playing with house money in my tax exempted retirement account. Don't do as I do.

[KhunHeineken]

On 6/6/2024 at 2:17 AM, Thailand J said:

Unbelievable. NVIDIA closed at $1224 per share ahead of 10:1 stock split.

I bought another 250 sh last week at $1148. Together with the 440 sh I bought at $598 in January, my 690 shares will become 6900 shares next week, though the total value will stay about the same, depending on the market..

Playing with house money in my tax exempted retirement account. Don't do as I do.

As another member suggests, surely you would have made more investing that money in Thailand. 

[swissie]

Almost halfway through the "Investing year", let's take an up to date look at things.

IMHO it seems that only 2 things are "moving the markets" these days.

a) What is the US Fed going to do?
b) Whats happening in China?

Commodities are a good "early indicator". All it took was a series of unpleasant economic news fron China to have the Gold/Silver/Copper prices to nosedive lately.

 It used to be that if the US gets a cold, the rest of the world would get pneumonia. The day may not be far off when the same thing applies when China gets a cough.

[KhunHeineken]

9 minutes ago, swissie said:

Almost halfway through the "Investing year", let's take an up to date look at things.

IMHO it seems that only 2 things are "moving the markets" these days.

a) What is the US Fed going to do?
b) Whats happening in China?

Commodities are a good "early indicator". All it took was a series of unpleasant economic news fron China to have the Gold/Silver/Copper prices to nosedive lately.

 It used to be that if the US gets a cold, the rest of the world would get pneumonia. The day may not be far off when the same thing applies when China gets a cough.

Some call pig and rice farms in Issan an "investment." 

 

No need to look at the Fed and China.

[KhunHeineken]

1 minute ago, Yellowtail said:

I am not heavily invested in Thailand,

If that's the case, why the need to "liquidate?"  Your word, not mine.  If it's not much, leave it here.  Walk away.  Right? 

 

As for the rest of your post, no, I am not lying.  It's in your posts. 

[swissie]

43 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Some call pig and rice farms in Issan an "investment." 

 

No need to look at the Fed and China.

Once upon a time I had a pig farm in rural Thailand. My Thai partner went with his truck to collect "questionable food" from hotels, restaurants and "old rice" from farmers, while I ran the pig farm. Pigs make for intelligent pets and eat everything without needing "stomach medication" the next day. We both made good money.

But eventually some "officials" came by, raising the question with regard to "work permit" concerning the Farang. There, I decided to terminate my career as a pig farmer in Thailand.

What has that to do with Wall Street? Nothing! I will be back on topic next time. Scouts honor.

[KhunHeineken]

18 hours ago, swissie said:

Once upon a time I had a pig farm in rural Thailand. My Thai partner went with his truck to collect "questionable food" from hotels, restaurants and "old rice" from farmers, while I ran the pig farm. Pigs make for intelligent pets and eat everything without needing "stomach medication" the next day. We both made good money.

But eventually some "officials" came by, raising the question with regard to "work permit" concerning the Farang. There, I decided to terminate my career as a pig farmer in Thailand.

What has that to do with Wall Street? Nothing! I will be back on topic next time. Scouts honor.

So, the pig farm was such a great investment you didn't bother getting a work permit.

 

Yes, back on topic. 

 

A foreigner should never use the words "investment" and "Thailand" the same sentence.  Eg.  your pig farm. 

[ElwoodP]

No need to call other posters names. Several name calling posts and replies removed.

[swissie]

3 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

So, the pig farm was such a great investment you didn't bother getting a work permit.

 

Yes, back on topic. 

 

A foreigner should never use the words "investment" and "Thailand" the same sentence.  Eg.  your pig farm. 

Work permits in Thailand (in short): "Whatever a Thai National can do, a foreighner is not allowed to do". Ergo, the farm work I did could have been done by a Thai. Zero chance for me getting a work permit.

As I later learned, it was another Thai pig farmer that "signaled" me to the officialdom. Never mind. All water under the bridge.

[KhunHeineken]

5 hours ago, swissie said:

Work permits in Thailand (in short): "Whatever a Thai National can do, a foreighner is not allowed to do". Ergo, the farm work I did could have been done by a Thai. Zero chance for me getting a work permit.

As I later learned, it was another Thai pig farmer that "signaled" me to the officialdom. Never mind. All water under the bridge.

I am well aware of the occupations reserved for Thai's only.  A lot of those occupations are 300 baht minimum wage jobs.  I would hardly call such a thing an "investment" that makes "good money."