UK tips into recession in huge blow to Rishi Sunak

[placeholder]

On 2/17/2024 at 1:27 PM, noobexpat said:

 

No, its not an official anything. Its a generic term adopted by various countries and the definitions vary between countries!

 

A pint means 20 ounces in  in the UK and 16 ounces in the United States. Does that mean pint is a generic term? By the same token, the criteria for what constitutes a recession may vary from country to country, but they are specific. So no, not generic

[BritManToo]

On 2/17/2024 at 1:00 PM, noobexpat said:

 

Its basically flat ...but the word recession sells news

 

No reaction from the stockmarket which i think tells a story ie. largely expected, rather than a big surprise.

Pound at 45.36 as well ..........

[RayC]

On 2/19/2024 at 9:35 AM, herfiehandbag said:

I am not sure that it was an unnecessary referendum - I suspect that the majority of the electorate wanted one, many had wanted one for some  time, and when it was held the majority voted, on a large turnout, against the established "political concensus", and chose to leave.

 

The fiascos that marked the process of leaving the EU were largely the result of that " established political consensus" variously freezing in horror, attempting to ignore, attempting to amend, naysaying, proposing to continue asking the question again until they got the answer they wanted, and various other moves to make it as difficult as possible.

 

I cant really say that I have that much sympathy for Sunak. I don't bear him any personal animus, but he was installed (and engineered his own installation) as Prime Minister by the Tory section of the "established political concensus" following their

defenestration of the Prime Minister (Johnson) selected as the Tory Candidate by the party membership (to their dismay) and then endorsed by the electorate in an overwhelming General Election victory. They didn't like him, (Johnson) forced him out and then engineered the installation of Truss (disaster) and then Sunak. The resulting internal party turmoil having taken the governments eye of the economic ball at an important time, and wasted the political opportunity granted by 5 years with such a significant majority, and leaves them in election year flailing around, still with their eye off the ball.

 

Bottom line, perhaps, that although the UK has slipped into recession, so have several other major European economies (Germany?)

In the case of the UK I would argue as a result of ineffectual government rather than Brexit. The trouble is of course now that unlike Germany we don't have Greece, Italy and Portugal to bail us out!😃

 

Personally and politically , I am a cynical liberal conservative ( small "c"), not a member of the Conservative Party ( I doubt if they would have me)!. I voted Tory at the last election and feel betrayed by the parties subsequent antics, and failure to govern.

 

My default position is that referendums should be kept to a minimum. The UK has a parliamentary democracy. We elect MPs to represent us and the largest party to govern. 

 

I think that there can be little doubt that certain members/ sections of the establishment were anti-Brexit, however, I don't think that had much bearing on the Brexit negotiation process. Once Article 50 was tabled, it was clear that we were going to leave. However, Article 50 was not triggered until 27 March 2017, 9 months or so after the referendum. Imo the government should have had a plan and strategy for negotiation prior to the referendum "just in case", but there is no excuse for them not having one when we entered the formal negotiations. Having said all that, I don't think that it would have made much difference as the EU were always in the stronger position, and were always going to dictate the terms and conditions of any deal 

 

Although I never thought Johnson fit to be PM, he undoubtedly had a mandate to govern. However, he relinquished this mandate as a result of his actions. Imo he has no one to blame but himself. Similar story for the Tory Party as a whole. They have wasted their majority and destroyed their credibility as a result of their in-fighting. No one to blame but themselves.

 

I agree that the UK government has, in general, been ineffective but the same might be said of the German government. With better leadership perhaps both countries would have escaped recession? However, wrt Brexit (the EU) imo more specific questions need to be answered. Would Germany's economic performance been better outside of the EU? I have not seen any reports suggesting that might have been the case. However wrt the UK, report after report suggests that leaving the EU has had a negative economic effect on the UK. In response to these reports, Brexiter's often cite bias on the part of the authors. However, when challenged they are unable to point to this bias and/or other errors in the reports' methodologies. A second line of defence is that Brexit wasn't 'done right'. Imo the only 'harder' Brexit possible was "No Deal". How that would have improved matters is again unclear. The third line of defence is that Brexit isn't complete, the benefits are yet to be seen. Notwithstanding the fact that there have been no trade deals signed with any of the major economic powers, how long do we have to wait for these benefits to materialise? 10/20/50 years? To misquote Keynes, "In the long run we are all dead".

 

Bottom line: Imo Brexit has significantly damaged the UK not just economically but in many other ways too e.g. diplomatically, academically, culturally, etc.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

My default position is that referendums should be kept to a minimum. The UK has a parliamentary democracy. We elect MPs to represent us and the largest party to govern. 

 

I think that there can be little doubt that certain members/ sections of the establishment were anti-Brexit, however, I don't think that had much bearing on the Brexit negotiation process. Once Article 50 was tabled, it was clear that we were going to leave. However, Article 50 was not triggered until 27 March 2017, 9 months or so after the referendum. Imo the government should have had a plan and strategy for negotiation prior to the referendum "just in case", but there is no excuse for them not having one when we entered the formal negotiations. Having said all that, I don't think that it would have made much difference as the EU were always in the stronger position, and were always going to dictate the terms and conditions of any deal 

 

Although I never thought Johnson fit to be PM, he undoubtedly had a mandate to govern. However, he relinquished this mandate as a result of his actions. Imo he has no one to blame but himself. Similar story for the Tory Party as a whole. They have wasted their majority and destroyed their credibility as a result of their in-fighting. No one to blame but themselves.

 

I agree that the UK government has, in general, been ineffective but the same might be said of the German government. With better leadership perhaps both countries would have escaped recession? However, wrt Brexit (the EU) imo more specific questions need to be answered. Would Germany's economic performance been better outside of the EU? I have not seen any reports suggesting that might have been the case. However wrt the UK, report after report suggests that leaving the EU has had a negative economic effect on the UK. In response to these reports, Brexiter's often cite bias on the part of the authors. However, when challenged they are unable to point to this bias and/or other errors in the reports' methodologies. A second line of defence is that Brexit wasn't 'done right'. Imo the only 'harder' Brexit possible was "No Deal". How that would have improved matters is again unclear. The third line of defence is that Brexit isn't complete, the benefits are yet to be seen. Notwithstanding the fact that there have been no trade deals signed with any of the major economic powers, how long do we have to wait for these benefits to materialise? 10/20/50 years? To misquote Keynes, "In the long run we are all dead".

 

Bottom line: Imo Brexit has significantly damaged the UK not just economically but in many other ways too e.g. diplomatically, academically, culturally, etc.

 

My opinion is that they should be done as soon as polling indicates that a majority of people want one.

[RayC]

38 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

 

My opinion is that they should be done as soon as polling indicates that a majority of people want one.

 

What? Referendums?

Edited February 20 by RayC
Grammar

[RayC]

10 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

No, but I am. Parliamentary representative democracy had ignored the view that the people wished to be consulted on the simple question, continued membership of the EU, for many years, well over a decade. It had been kept firmly off the agenda by both major parties for at least 3 election cycles, whilst moves towards continuing integration and passing of "competencies", no let us call a spade a spade, the power for the UK parliament to make decisions for the UK, to Brussels, to be wielded by functionaries and commissioners who we had not elected.

 

Eventually political pressure for a referendum became irresistible, if only because it looked like undermining the Tory party's grip on power.

 

We had a referendum because Parliamentary democracy failed to reflect the will of the people on an absolutely fundamental subject - how and by who the country was to be governed.

 

Prior to Cameron promising a referendum in 2013, Brexit was one issue among many. It only went to the top of the agenda after that.

 

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/why-david-cameron-called-the-2016-referendum/

 

A disastrous, avoidable political gamble wagered for purely selfish political gain by Cameron  i.e. to strengthen his hold on the Conservative Party.

[metisdead]

Some posts trolling about other member's nationalities contravening our Community Standards have been removed.

 

[JonnyF]

Looks like it's already over.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68346038

 

 

 

News from Germany not looking so good.

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/germany-likely-to-fall-into-recession-central-bank/articleshow/107825003.cms?from=mdr

 

The EU as a whole not looking too rosy either.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/19/five-years-ursula-von-der-leyen-destroy-europe-economy/