EU citizens not confident Ukraine can win.

[retarius]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-cent-of-europeans-believe-ukraine-can-defeat-russia-poll

 

Link tells the story, you can read in full in the Guardian (which is not a reliable source in my opinion), but they are reporting on an independent piece of research from a reliable source, and the results of the the poll jive with what one might expect. 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 2/21/2024 at 7:04 PM, retarius said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/21/barely-10-per-cent-of-europeans-believe-ukraine-can-defeat-russia-poll

 

Link tells the story, you can read in full in the Guardian (which is not a reliable source in my opinion), but they are reporting on an independent piece of research from a reliable source, and the results of the the poll jive with what one might expect. 

I've been saying from the start that they won't win, so I'm not surprised the lights are finally coming on.

If it does end up in a Russian victory ( the fat lady hasn't sung yet ) it's going to be sooooooo embarrassing for a lot of western leaders. I'm definitely going to be tuning in if Biden has to make a public statement to that effect.

[Will B Good]

25 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I've been saying from the start that they won't win, so I'm not surprised the lights are finally coming on.

If it does end up in a Russian victory ( the fat lady hasn't sung yet ) it's going to be sooooooo embarrassing for a lot of western leaders. I'm definitely going to be tuning in if Biden has to make a public statement to that effect.

Do you know prubangboy's wife?

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, Will B Good said:

Do you know prubangboy's wife?

You lost me there. Is she fat and sings perhaps?

[beautifulthailand99]

Well it's true continuing this war is just condemning 100s or thousands of young men on both sides to their slaughter. It's WW1 in 1915 not WW2 defeating Nazism. The weasel Lindsay Graham that praised Zelenskiy to his face and said this was a great deal for the US seems to have gone quiet recently. All of this was hugely predictable to anyone with half a brain which makes it all the more evil to me that the powers that be are so cynical and so calculating in the playing of the "Great Game". They must think we are stupid, but then most people are or are distracted or just too busy to figure it all out.

 

A few years back, my brother's family went to Ukraine for a city break - their taxi driver was quite knowledgable and took care of them for their stay. He mentioned that I a European was married to a Thai woman and expressed his displeasure that such a thing would happen. He said in our country we have a saying a cow shouldn't marry a horse.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrystia_Freeland

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_McFaul

 

 

 

Edited March 5 by beautifulthailand99

[thaibeachlovers]

On 3/6/2024 at 7:34 AM, beautifulthailand99 said:

All of this was hugely predictable to anyone with half a brain which makes it all the more evil to me that the powers that be are so cynical and so calculating in the playing of the "Great Game". They must think we are stupid, but then most people are or are distracted or just too busy to figure it all out.

Indeed it was predictable if anyone cares enough to read any of my posts from the start of the conflict.

The Great Game has been played for centuries past and likely will for centuries to come. A cynical man might say that God and the devil are playing a game to see who gets all the souls.

 

Are we stupid? Probably, to put up with the BS.

[BobBKK]

Win?  who could possibly think that? It's just a question of WHEN Russia win.

[rabas]

On 3/6/2024 at 1:34 AM, beautifulthailand99 said:

Well it's true continuing this war is just condemning 100s or thousands of young men on both sides to their slaughter. It's WW1 in 1915 not WW2 defeating Nazism. The weasel Lindsay Graham that praised Zelenskiy to his face and said this was a great deal for the US seems to have gone quiet recently. All of this was hugely predictable to anyone with half a brain which makes it all the more evil to me that the powers that be are so cynical and so calculating in the playing of the "Great Game". They must think we are stupid, but then most people are or are distracted or just too busy to figure it all out.

 

A few years back, my brother's family went to Ukraine for a city break - their taxi driver was quite knowledgable and took care of them for their stay. He mentioned that I a European was married to a Thai woman and expressed his displeasure that such a thing would happen. He said in our country we have a saying a cow shouldn't marry a horse.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chrystia_Freeland

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_McFaul

 

 

 

 

"Well it's true continuing this war is just condemning 100s or thousands of young men on both sides to their slaughter. "

 

Got that right. Putin can end it any day of the week he wants. End of story.

 

Meanwhile back at the Black Sea, Russia continues losing its mighty navy to a country without one along with many embarrassing defeats as Putin's undefeatable weapons goes down to superior western technology. 

 

I doubt defeating Russia is the goal, just Putin. Russian generals must be very weary watching their heavy strategic losses and their reputation sink with their ships. 

 

It was reported that Russian Military Headquarters recently discovered a spy camera, which they turned over to police to investigate. The police gave it to Putin's FSB who said it was theirs. Such is the love between Putin and his military. The military is proud of their history defending the homeland and want nothing to do with Putin's  bloody war of conquest.

[VBer]

7 minutes ago, rabas said:

Got that right. Putin can end it any day of the week he wants. End of story.

How do you see that? Withdrawal to the borders of 1991, including giving up Crimea? Do you think that its real?

[rabas]

3 hours ago, VBer said:

How do you see that? Withdrawal to the borders of 1991, including giving up Crimea? Do you think that its real?

 

Withdrawing to legally agreed on borders would be the right thing, wouldn't it?

 

Note, any reasonable Russian head of state, other than Putin's mafia, would have spent the last 20 years building Russia's economy and better relations with neighbors. Then Crimea wouldn't be an issue. Russia and Ukraine could use Crimea for mutual defense and benefit. Russia could even become a normal country mutually benefiting the world and its own citizens.

[beautifulthailand99]

13 hours ago, rabas said:

 

"Well it's true continuing this war is just condemning 100s or thousands of young men on both sides to their slaughter. "

 

Got that right. Putin can end it any day of the week he wants. End of story.

 

Meanwhile back at the Black Sea, Russia continues losing its mighty navy to a country without one along with many embarrassing defeats as Putin's undefeatable weapons goes down to superior western technology. 

 

I doubt defeating Russia is the goal, just Putin. Russian generals must be very weary watching their heavy strategic losses and their reputation sink with their ships. 

 

It was reported that Russian Military Headquarters recently discovered a spy camera, which they turned over to police to investigate. The police gave it to Putin's FSB who said it was theirs. Such is the love between Putin and his military. The military is proud of their history defending the homeland and want nothing to do with Putin's  bloody war of conquest.

If Putin goes there won't be an effortless road to democratic liberalism, far from it  -what the last 2 years has shown us is the Putin is in total control and the siloviki will no doubt uphold legitimacy of that of his successor should there ever be one, who the current Kremlin watching consensus seems to favour Nikolai Patrushev, who is believed to be even more authoritarian than Putin. They all know that should they collectively falter and lose their grip rather like Prizoghin they lose their lives in short order. The Russian people are not a factor in this calculation - they will keep their heads down and their views in check.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev

 

https://theweek.com/feature/briefing/1024619/putins-potential-successors

 

The 71-year-old has known Putin since they worked together in the KGB, and was a major strategist in both the 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine. Last year Tatiana Stanovaya told The Washington Post that "His ideas form the foundations of decisions taken by Putin. He is one of the few figures Putin listens to." In a March 2023 interview with Rossiskaya Gazetta, Petrushev said that "Washington and London are again conniving with Nazism and fascism. They have no qualms about using Ukraine to set Europe or the entire world ablaze in a belief that they can get away with anything." Over the past year, Petrushev has traveled widely seeking to shore up Russia's diplomatic position, and has played a critical role in managing the alliance with China. Petrushev's 45-year-old son Dmitry, currently the agriculture minister, has also been a rumored Putin successor.

 

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-security-services-siloviki-putin-regime/

 

Who supports this system, who protects it? The so-called security forces, known in Russia as siloviki, are the core and backbone of Vladimir Putin’s regime. Today, there are as many as five million people in the siloviki, including employees of the country’s state security, the police, the investigative committee (which is supposedly akin to the FBI in the US) and numerous other agencies, such as the National Guard, which employs more than 300,000 people and is only really tasked with dispersing protests.

Russia’s siloviki have long lived by their own rules. Very often, these rules are inaccessible and incomprehensible for both people outside the country and residents of Russia.

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

9 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Withdrawing to legally agreed on borders would be the right thing, wouldn't it?

 

Note, any reasonable Russian head of state, other than Putin's mafia, would have spent the last 20 years building Russia's economy and better relations with neighbors. Then Crimea wouldn't be an issue. Russia and Ukraine could use Crimea for mutual defense and benefit. Russia could even become a normal country mutually benefiting the world and its own citizens.

That ship like the Russian navy has long since been sunk. There won't be amity between Ukraine and Russia probably in my lifetime, but there could be a messy peace and secure redefined borders and a frozen conflict. The battlefield is deciding that not diplomacy and sadly for Ukraine they are losing that. Russia's never coming back to the West now it's thrown in its lot with China in a "partnership without limits" and this and other nefarious partners and the global south/BRICS will determine the arc of that trajectory, not what we would like or wish for.

 

Winston Churchill in 1939: “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” (Source: Churchill Society)
"Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks." (Attributed to multiple individuals, including Winston Churchill.)

Edited March 11 by beautifulthailand99

[Tropicalevo]

On 2/21/2024 at 1:04 PM, retarius said:

you can read in full in the Guardian (which is not a reliable source in my opinion),

Totally agree. Too left wing. More of a comic than a newspaper. (Well it makes me laugh.)

However, I believe that Ukraine does not need to win. No way in a million years could Ukraine defeat Russia.  It just needs not to loose.

(I did not read the article - bed time.)

[rabas]

7 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

That ship like the Russian navy has long since been sunk. There won't be amity between Ukraine and Russia probably in my lifetime, but there could be a messy peace and secure redefined borders and a frozen conflict. The battlefield is deciding that not diplomacy and sadly for Ukraine they are losing that. Russia's never coming back to the West now it's thrown in its lot with China in a "partnership without limits" and this and other nefarious partners and the global south/BRICS will determine the arc of that trajectory, not what we would like or wish for.

 

Winston Churchill in 1939: “I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” (Source: Churchill Society)
"Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks." (Attributed to multiple individuals, including Winston Churchill.)

 

Your assessments are reasonable and I can't argue against either, though I'm a bit more optimistic and like to take the side of Russian citizens.

 

Putin is not without weakness particularly after his Ukraine blunder. Prigozhin would not have gotten so far if he wasn't. Of course, Prigozhin is now dead as Putin doesn't mind blowing innocent people like pilots and stewardesses out of the sky. 

 

You're right that there is no quick fix but I don't think Russians need or necessarily want a full Western liberal democracy. Just governance that cares about citizens and develops the economy. Even China can develop its economy. Neither the USSR or Putin ever tried. Nor did they try to develop good relations with the world. 

 

But we always come back to he same bottom line, Vladimir Putin is the most hellacious mess the world has seen in a century.  Allowing him to get his way in Ukraine is not an option. If we do, the next war will be 10X more costly. 

Edited March 12 by rabas

[sirineou]

On 2/23/2024 at 2:19 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

If it does end up in a Russian victory ( the fat lady hasn't sung yet )

I take no pleasure in saying it, but it already has. And at the cost of the destruction of the beautiful country of Ukraine and a generation of it's youth.

Those  of you who supported this disaster. Though I do believe you are all good people, your heart was in the right place , and you were mislead. 

With friends like this, who needs enemies.

Ukraine could right now be a prosperous , independant,  neutral country.  

We all want things, but we all consider the price and if we could afford it. I know it's unfair, but it's the way of the world.

[BobBKK]

47 minutes ago, sirineou said:

I take no pleasure in saying it, but it already has. And at the cost of the destruction of the beautiful country of Ukraine and a generation of it's youth.

Those  of you who supported this disaster. Though I do believe you are all good people, your heart was in the right place , and you were mislead. 

With friends like this, who needs enemies.

Ukraine could right now be a prosperous , independant,  neutral country.  

We all want things, but we all consider the price and if we could afford it. I know it's unfair, but it's the way of the world.

 Exactly - neutral and free - yet Ukraine is a tool of the USAs 'lets police the world' madness. No need for this war and all the suffering.

[BobBKK]

59 minutes ago, rabas said:

 

Your assessments are reasonable and I can't argue against either, though I'm a bit more optimistic and like to take the side of Russian citizens.

 

Putin is not without weakness particularly after his Ukraine blunder. Prigozhin would not have gotten so far if he wasn't. Of course, Prigozhin is now dead as Putin doesn't mind blowing innocent people like pilots and stewardesses out of the sky. 

 

You're right that there is no quick fix but I don't think Russians need or necessarily want a full Western liberal democracy. Just governance that cares about citizens and develops the economy. Even China can develop its economy. Neither the USSR or Putin ever tried. Nor did they try to develop good relations with the world. 

 

But we always come back to he same bottom line, Vladimir Putin is the most hellacious mess the world has seen in a century.  Allowing him to get his way in Ukraine is not an option. If we do, the next war will be 10X more costly. 

 

I'm sorry to say, but this is misguided. Have you been to Russia?  Ukraine? I have been many times and I have relatives in Kiev. The issue was Zelenksy's lies at the election when he promised peace in Donbas. Now, of course , there are NO ELECTIONS, and it is an autocracy. I can tell you - clearly - there is very little difference between Russians and Ukrainians, and this war is a tragedy. Russia felt threatened and wanted the USA many times - no NATO expansion on our borders.

The poor Ukrainian people pay the price, as did Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, Cuba and all the rest. The one thing different is American troops are kept safely at home while others fight their dirty wars.

[RayC]

An alternative view re the source of the problem.

https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/what-putin-fears-most/

[Wobblybob]

1 hour ago, BobBKK said:

 Exactly - neutral and free - yet Ukraine is a tool of the USAs 'lets police the world' madness. No need for this war and all the suffering.

You would prefer the Ukrainians to suffer serfdom under their Russian slave masters, the Ukrainians are fighting for freedom and wanting them to surrender to a power that invaded them is very disingenuous at the very least!

[thaibeachlovers]

19 hours ago, rabas said:

 

Withdrawing to legally agreed on borders would be the right thing, wouldn't it?

 

Note, any reasonable Russian head of state, other than Putin's mafia, would have spent the last 20 years building Russia's economy and better relations with neighbors. Then Crimea wouldn't be an issue. Russia and Ukraine could use Crimea for mutual defense and benefit. Russia could even become a normal country mutually benefiting the world and its own citizens.

Withdrawing to legally agreed on borders would be the right thing, wouldn't it?

 

Considering there is another conflict going on involving states and borders and I believe you support the invader/ occupier there, that's a bit rich, IMO.

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, sirineou said:

I take no pleasure in saying it, but it already has. And at the cost of the destruction of the beautiful country of Ukraine and a generation of it's youth.

Those  of you who supported this disaster. Though I do believe you are all good people, your heart was in the right place , and you were mislead. 

With friends like this, who needs enemies.

Ukraine could right now be a prosperous , independant,  neutral country.  

We all want things, but we all consider the price and if we could afford it. I know it's unfair, but it's the way of the world.

IMO the fat lady only sings when Zelensky crawls to the negotiating table cap in hand.

I think a lot more widows and fatherless children lie ahead as the EU and America keep financing it- shame on them.

 

[sirineou]

48 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO the fat lady only sings when Zelensky crawls to the negotiating table cap in hand.

I think a lot more widows and fatherless children lie ahead as the EU and America keep financing it- shame on them.

 

I  am not sure Zelensky will crawl anywhere other than a third country that would give him citizenship where he can spend the millions he has made from this war. I would be surprise to see him in Ukraine a year from now, maybe even less. 

 

[RayC]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO the fat lady only sings when Zelensky crawls to the negotiating table cap in hand.

I think a lot more widows and fatherless children lie ahead as the EU and America keep financing it- shame on them.

 

 

The blood of those who have died is on the hands of Putin. Shame on him for starting the war in the first place.

[Tropicalevo]

7 hours ago, sirineou said:

Ukraine could right now be a prosperous , independant,  neutral country.

No it could not.

No part of Russia is a prosperous, independent, neautral country. Go back to your dacha.

Russia would use it's new Ukrainian province to invade the next country.

[Tropicalevo]

4 hours ago, sirineou said:

I  am not sure Zelensky will crawl anywhere other than a third country that would give him citizenship where he can spend the millions he has made from this war. I would be surprise to see him in Ukraine a year from now, maybe even less. 

 

Proof of the bank accounts please. Then maybe I will start to listen to your propaganda.

[sirineou]

35 minutes ago, Tropicalevo said:

Proof of the bank accounts please. Then maybe I will start to listen to your propaganda.

No one said you have to listen

[sirineou]

36 minutes ago, Tropicalevo said:

No it could not

Ok if you say so

[beautifulthailand99]

Momentum Shifts Toward Russia in Ukraine War, US Spies Warn - BLOOMBERG

 

I think Ukraine is making a grave mistake relying on the "West" for long-term support. By the very definition of democracy, the country does what the majority of its people want.

And after 2 years of fighting to an eroding stalemate, the majority of people in some countries might start to think it would be maybe better to build a new hospital, instead of providing another Patriot system to Ukraine. Government changes, and whatever promises were made before are forgotten.

On the other hand, if you make a deal with N. Korea, Iran or China, you can be damn sure they will deliver unless there is some kind of major revolution. This is the sad reality Ukraine has to fight with on top of everything else.

 

And then there's the Trump threat - not a penny more lurking in the wings. The Pope wasn't wrong that the best option Ukraine has is to negotiate as soon as possible. Over time, they only get weaker, their future is further crippled, their leverage worsens. The longer this drags on , the worse it will be for them. It is a choice between lose softer now and lose much harder later.

 

An authoritarian parallel economic universe is being born, one that is immune to sanctions and benefits the players at the expense of the US dollar hegemon. For better or worse, the American century is coming to an end and it's naive to think that the old orthodoxies still hold true.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-11/momentum-shifting-toward-russia-in-ukraine-war-us-spies-warn?leadSource=reddit_wall

 

Moscow has made continual, incremental battlefield gains since late 2023 and benefits from uncertainties about the future of military assistance from the US and allies, the top intelligence officials told members of the Senate Intelligence Committee in their annual presentation on the biggest “worldwide threats” facing the US.

“This deadlock plays to Russia’s strategic military advantages and is increasingly shifting the momentum in Moscow’s favor,” they said.

Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns testified that “the Ukrainians are not running out of courage and tenacity. They’re running out of ammunition, and we’re running out of time to help them.”

 

FULL REPORT

https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/sites/default/files/hearings/unclassified_2024_ata_report_0.pdf

Edited March 12 by beautifulthailand99

[tuktuktuk]

On 2/23/2024 at 2:19 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

I've been saying from the start that they won't win, so I'm not surprised the lights are finally coming on.

If it does end up in a Russian victory ( the fat lady hasn't sung yet ) it's going to be sooooooo embarrassing for a lot of western leaders. I'm definitely going to be tuning in if Biden has to make a public statement to that effect.

He’ll just blame it on MAGA Republicans. 
 

I began to think Ukraine could win after routing the Russians near Kyiv. Now I’m convinced that materiel alone without manpower will never bring about a win. Nobody even knows what winning looks like. Nobody is ready to send troops beyond the covert forces that have been there all along. 

[beautifulthailand99]

1 minute ago, tuktuktuk said:

He’ll just blame it on MAGA Republicans. 
 

I began to think Ukraine could win after routing the Russians near Kyiv. Now I’m convinced that materiel alone without manpower will never bring about a win. Nobody even knows what winning looks like. Nobody is ready to send troops beyond the covert forces that have been there all along. 

If they do lose Zelenskiy will be the fall guy - both internally, particularly amongst the fight to eternity ultranationalists and the west saying that his sacking of Zalunhyi was a strategic misstep, that and corruption that mislaid vast amounts of support provided. Why an actor/comedian should know more than a seasoned battle hardened General universally loved by his troops is mystery to me.