Danderman123 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, ozimoron said: You're assuming that her voters are disaffected dems and not largely comprised of republicans who don't like trump. I can't see it. "Her" voters will disappear during the general election, unless she runs third party. If so, "her" voters will be Democrats and independents who think Biden is too old. At best, "her" Republican voters will stay home in November, but most will fall in line and vote for Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post candide Posted February 25 Popular Post Share Posted February 25 28 minutes ago, illisdean said: Panic, I am sure Trumps chances are good in the primaries, and the only panic is with the democrats, and panic lady Haley should be toast after she's annihilated in super Tuesday even with all her vast democratic financial support. I can sure see MAGA panicking when they lead by >59%. LOL You got it all wrong, again, no surprise there. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/national https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/california Which Dem panic? Everybody knows from the start that Trump will win the primaries. You are making stuff up. The only one who gets excited about Trump beating Haley is you! 😀 It is a non-event. On top of it, Haley losing primaries is a good news for Dems. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 4 minutes ago, Danderman123 said: "Her" voters will disappear during the general election, unless she runs third party. If so, "her" voters will be Democrats and independents who think Biden is too old. At best, "her" Republican voters will stay home in November, but most will fall in line and vote for Trump. I think the number of voters who truly believe that Biden is too old but Trump isn't must number in the single digits. I read that she's about to launch a major ad campaign so she's not going anywhere. Haley can obviously read the tea leaves in the bottom of the cup of Trump's legal woes. And his lack of money to combat her ad onslaught. If her voters do stay home, Biden wins because he turned out a record number of voters in 2020 and they didn't do it out of love for Biden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirineou Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 50 minutes ago, ozimoron said: I don't think she has any delusions that he would pick a non white woman as a running mate, especially one who has caused him all this angst. The question is does she hate Trump more than her party loyalty? He did pick her for his UN secretary post, But that was before they had a history. You have to understand something about these people, they are completely transactional.. He needs to do something about the woman vote, and the minorities vote. She ticks both of these boxes, and she has the additional value of name recognition, and administration experience. But I could be wrong. I hope he wins the nomination and Haley is his running mate. I often say how I wish Trump would be the Republican candidate. Why? We have to look what happened in the 2020 election. trump lost the popular vote by what? 7-8 million votes? and that was when he got a significant percentage of the independent vote, and some of the woman vote. Fast forward 4 years later. We already know who trump was, and it was not a pretty sight . He is polling much lower with the woman vote and the independant vore, in addition he will get a lower percentage of the republican vote as many who voted for him in 2020 have said they would never vote for him and ruther vote for Biden rather than see trump become president again. Case and point Liz Chaney. Romney etc. For the above reasons I believe Biden will wipe the floor with trump. But if the supreme court disqualifies trump then maybe the republicans will get a viable candidate. Edited February 25 by sirineou 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, sirineou said: She is a weathervane .if Trump is the republican nominee (Oh god how I hope he is). she might even be his running mate. Nope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, ozimoron said: Do polls predict the popular vote or the electoral college outcome? Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirineou Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, Jingthing said: Nope! Yap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Lacessit Posted February 25 Popular Post Share Posted February 25 3 hours ago, Dolf said: Biden has no opposition. Nikki is attracting the female vote. Trump beat Hillary. Trump will win in 2024 against an 82yo. Nikki Haley is keeping quiet about her stance on abortion. Unlike bigmouth Trump, who is crowing over the SC vacating Roe vs Wade, and claiming responsibility. Trump has to claw back about 7 million votes, when he has several self-awarded handicaps. The female vote will swing against him. The unions have realized he does not represent them. The military knows he wants to downsize them. He has spent truckloads of campaign funds on his legal bills. As they say in Australia, a drover's dog could win against Trump. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 minute ago, sirineou said: He did pick her for his UN secretary post, But that was before they had a history. You have to understand something about these people, they are completely transactional.. He needs to do something about the woman vote, and the minorities vote. She ticks both of these boxes, and she has the additional value of name recognition, and administration experience. But I could be wrong. I hope he wins the nomination and Haley is his running mate. I often say how I wish Trump would be the Republican candidate. Why? We have to look what happened in the 2020 election. trump lost the popular vote by what? 7-8 million votes? and that was when he got a significant percentage of the independent vote, and some of the woman vote. Fast forward 4 years later. We already know who trump was, and it was not a pretty sight . He is lolling much lower with the woman vote and the independant vore, in addition he will get a lower percentage of the republican vote as many who voted for him in 2020 have said they would never vote for him and ruther vote for Biden rather than see trump become president again. Case and point Liz Chaney. Romney etc. For the above reasons I believe Biden will wipe the floor with trump. But if the supreme court disqualifies trump then maybe the republicans will get a viable candidate. You do make a compelling argument here. It is true that Trump does need her money and perhaps he can pretend to be a moderate but I don't think anyone will buy that line. Not that I think Haley is particularly moderate. I think her anti Russia feelings and Trump's obeisance to Putin would be a deal breaker for her as well in the VP pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolf Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Lacessit said: Nikki Haley is keeping quiet about her stance on abortion. Unlike bigmouth Trump, who is crowing over the SC vacating Roe vs Wade, and claiming responsibility. Trump has to claw back about 7 million votes, when he has several self-awarded handicaps. The female vote will swing against him. The unions have realized he does not represent them. The military knows he wants to downsize them. He has spent truckloads of campaign funds on his legal bills. As they say in Australia, a drover's dog could win against Trump. The polls say he gets 312 and he beat Biden in 10 out of the last 11 polls. Biden looks gone. https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls Edited February 25 by Dolf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) Well I think that Trump taking power again means the official end of American democracy and total victory for authoritarianism globally, and I'm not panicking at all. Yes I expect it to be Trump vs. Biden. I also expect Trump to be a convicted felon by then. Trump can win even as a convicted felon of course, but it way too early to prepare for his coronation. Edited February 25 by Jingthing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 3 minutes ago, sirineou said: Yap You're not paying attention. She has disqualified herself for that. It's impossible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Dolf Posted February 25 Popular Post Share Posted February 25 Just now, Jingthing said: Well I think that Trump taking power again means the official end of American democracy and total victory for authoritarianism globally, and I'm not panicking at all. Yes I expect it to be Trump vs. Biden. I also expect Trump to be a convicted felon by then. Trump can win even as a convicted felon of course, but it was too early to prepare for his coronation. The opposite. Voters want Trump. He's winning nearly all of them. https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevenl Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 3 hours ago, Dolf said: The election is at the end of the year and exit polls are often wrong. The choice is 82-86yo or Trump with less wars, less border chaos. Easy decision. 1 minute ago, Dolf said: The opposite. Voters want Trump. He's winning nearly all of them. https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls So polls are wrong except when you like the result. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolf Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, stevenl said: So polls are wrong except when you like the result. Why do you think 1 poll is more accurate then 11? Anti Trump bias? Must be. Pollsters look at the weight of polls and Trump won 10 out of the last 11. That's a trashing for Biden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevenl Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 5 minutes ago, Dolf said: Why do you think 1 poll is more accurate then 11? Anti Trump bias? Must be. Pollsters look at the weight of polls and Trump won 10 out of the last 11. That's a trashing for Biden. Not repeating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirineou Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6 minutes ago, Jingthing said: You're not paying attention. She has disqualified herself for that. It's impossible. Perhaps I am not paying Attention .So how has she disqualified herself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolf Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 minute ago, stevenl said: Not repeating. That comment makes no sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lacessit Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 11 minutes ago, Dolf said: The polls say he gets 312 and he beat Biden in 10 out of the last 11 polls. Biden looks gone. https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls The day I start believing opinion polls is the day I surrender my brain cells. If Biden is doing so poorly, why is Trump wishing the economy would crash? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolf Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Just now, Lacessit said: The day I start believing opinion polls is the day I surrender my brain cells. If Biden is doing so poorly, why is Trump wishing the economy would crash? Why don't you believe 10 opinion polls? The other guys cherry pick 1 and believe that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 13 minutes ago, Dolf said: Why do you think 1 poll is more accurate then 11? Anti Trump bias? Must be. Pollsters look at the weight of polls and Trump won 10 out of the last 11. That's a trashing for Biden. what has been your experience with the predictive value of early polls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danderman123 Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 5 minutes ago, Dolf said: Why don't you believe 10 opinion polls? The other guys cherry pick 1 and believe that. My personal opinion is that election polls don't have much predictive value until after Labor Day. So if you believe February polls, you are making a rookie mistake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earlinclaifornia Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 9 minutes ago, Dolf said: Why don't you believe 10 opinion polls? The other guys cherry pick 1 and believe that. To summarize your thinking then, Biden is too old and according to the current polls Trump will win. realclearpolitics_general_election_polling_average_aug-nov_clinton_trump_chartbuilder.svg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lacessit Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 (edited) 18 minutes ago, Dolf said: Why don't you believe 10 opinion polls? The other guys cherry pick 1 and believe that. I don't believe them because this is February, and the election is in November. By then, either Trump or Biden could have had a stroke. IMO the event is far more likely with Trump, given his dietary preferences, and his stress levels. OTOH, I do put some store in exit polls. Edited February 25 by Lacessit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolf Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 1 hour ago, ozimoron said: I don't think she has any delusions that he would pick a non white woman as a running mate, especially one who has caused him all this angst. The question is does she hate Trump more than her party loyalty? She is pro war, him anti war. She hates him. Why would Trump pick her? But you never know in politics. They might kiss and make up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jingthing Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 37 minutes ago, sirineou said: Perhaps I am not paying Attention .So how has she disqualified herself? Four reasons She's setting the table for 2028 or hoping Trump's health burns out before the convention. Running as VP and losing ruins 2028 for her. This https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/19/nikki-haley-vice-president-off-the-table-2024-00136626 She's crossed the Rubicon in the severity of her attacks on Trump. Trump has explicitly said she's off the list of possibles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolf Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6 hours ago, ozimoron said: There's 2 chances that Trump will agree to debate Biden or Haley. None and Buckley's. Trump wants to debate Biden. Biden doesn't. Biden is scared. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolf Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 29 minutes ago, Lacessit said: I don't believe them because this is February, and the election is in November. By then, either Trump or Biden could have had a stroke. IMO the event is far more likely with Trump, given his dietary preferences, and his stress levels. OTOH, I do put some store in exit polls. Come June the chiefs behind the scenes will be worried if no turn around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolf Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 2 hours ago, ozimoron said: Do polls predict the popular vote or the electoral college outcome? Both now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EVENKEEL Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 6 hours ago, ozimoron said: There's 2 chances that Trump will agree to debate Biden or Haley. None and Buckley's. Trump has no reason to debate Haley, but Trump will clean the stage with biden. Biden doesn't stand a chance. Who's Buckley? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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