Opinion: Russia's Potential For Defeat in War With Ukraine

[Danderman123]

38 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

My favourite contradiction of this war and there are many is - "Ukraine needs to join NATO so that article 5 applies and Russia will not dare attack it then ... but if Russia wins in Ukraine they won't stop and will attack NATO next".

Actually, if Russia wins in Ukraine, Kazakhstan is probably next.

[beautifulthailand99]

19 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

Actually, if Russia wins in Ukraine, Kazakhstan is probably next.

Why would they when Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are already allies with Russia? There’s no extra influence to be gained.

Russia already took Crimea and the world barely did anything. Threw some minor sanctions and that was it. They probably thought that they could easily steamroll to Kyiv, and then the world wouldn’t do anything again because it’s too late. Even if they want to put some distance between them and Russia which is the direction of travel seeing what has happned in Ukraine only a total madman would try and diverge any further. These domino theories are always trundled out as to why they need to be stopped here but are seldom borne out by history.It also doesn’t border any NATO country making it very difficult for the U.S to give them aid

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization

Edited May 19 by beautifulthailand99

[Danderman123]

29 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Why would they when Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are already allies with Russia? There’s no extra influence to be gained.

 

Actually, Russia traditionally is allied with Azerbaijan's enemy Armenia, but that is rapidly changing.

 

Russia was close to Kazakhstan, up to the invasion of Ukraine, but now Kazakhstan is pulling away. There's an interesting dynamic in Central Asia, with China, Turkey and the US vying to fill the vacuum left by Russia.

 

Some in Kazakhstan think that Putin is interested in northern Kazakhstan, which has a large Russian speaking population and oil.

[thaibeachlovers]

15 hours ago, retarius said:

Wars can be won and lost in a heart beat by some chance happening, so while everything looks great for Russia (and I certainly hope they win), some chance happening like Putin getting assassinated, or removed from office by all those anxious Russians who hate him (but incomprehensibly keep voting for him), or more likely, by some sort of weather-related incident that floods Russia and causes it to sink. 

Just remember in the war between Syracuse (the one in Sicily, not in upstate NY) and Athens....the Athenians were on the brink of defeat when at the last gasp, they managed to bribe a Syracusean porter to open the back gate to the castle, thereby letting the Athenians rush in and win. 

History has many such eg the Trojan Horse.

Yes indeed, there could be something that turns the tide against Russia, or something that saves Ukraine ( perhaps a million men will miraculously appear ), but as it is right now, it's Russia's war to lose, rather than Ukraine's to win.

 

More reports of Ukrainian drones in Russia. If Zelensky wants to escalate the war, I'm sure Putin will oblige. Ukraine isn't the only country with drones. Expect more western propaganda of old Ukrainian villagers being displaced by the evil orc attacks.

[rabas]

9 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

My favourite contradiction of this war and there are many is - "Ukraine needs to join NATO so that article 5 applies and Russia will not dare attack it then ... but if Russia wins in Ukraine they won't stop and will attack NATO next".

 

I think the Ukraine join NATO to prevent attack option expired in 2014, but still you make an interesting point. As for Putin's Russia attacking NATO, he's been threatening this from the rooftops from the start of the war, even naming specific countries to take or which capitals to nuke.

 

This brings us to a second hypocritical point, would/could Russia attack NATO, or do they lie incessantly. Got to be A or B.

 

[Gweiloman]

11 hours ago, Celsius said:

 

Wow.... clueless.....completely clueless....

 

As a Serb with plenty of friends back in Belgrade we absolutely and definitely do not fancy Chinese....Russians even less so.

 

Every single one of my friends is either in USA (even after NATO bombed us), UK, Australia, Canada (like myself) even Japan and Dubai. Russians, Chinese, Serbs don't get along at all, never did, never will.

 

Russian draft dodgers in Serbia are not welcome at all.

As a Serb that has abandoned your own country, I don’t value your stance much. Every single one of you friends have left Serbia and yet you still have plenty of friends back in Belgrade? How does that work? Imaginary made up friends I guess.

 

I rather believe what my eyes and ears tell me. I see the democratically (?) elected leaders of these countries welcoming the Chinese leader will great fanfare and open arms. These courageous and enlightened leaders know where the future of their countries lie.

[Celsius]

4 minutes ago, Gweiloman said:

As a Serb that has abandoned your own country, I don’t value your stance much. Every single one of you friends have left Serbia and yet you still have plenty of friends back in Belgrade? How does that work? Imaginary made up friends I guess.

 

I rather believe what my eyes and ears tell me. I see the democratically (?) elected leaders of these countries welcoming the Chinese leader will great fanfare and open arms. These courageous and enlightened leaders know where the future of their countries lie.

 

 

Let me put it to you this way. No one in Serbia immigrates to China or Russia.

 

But maybe you will. 

 

Probably not.

 

 

 

[beautifulthailand99]

3 hours ago, rabas said:

 

I think the Ukraine join NATO to prevent attack option expired in 2014, but still you make an interesting point. As for Putin's Russia attacking NATO, he's been threatening this from the rooftops from the start of the war, even naming specific countries to take or which capitals to nuke.

 

This brings us to a second hypocritical point, would/could Russia attack NATO, or do they lie incessantly. Got to be A or B.

 

Whisper it quietly but Russia is tapped out in invading and holding onto the four oblasts that it considers theirs. He may be evil and paranoid but he's not stupid he won't touch a NATO country and he's wise not to do so. I see it like the 6 counties of Northern Ireland after the Irish War of Independence natural justice would have suggested that the whole of Ireland should have been freed from British control. But in the end the nationalists had to settle for the realpolitik of succession for peace and a majority of Unionists who didn't want that and were prepared to fight. Even if Ukraine did get this territory back do folks not realize that there are numerically huge numbers of pro-Russians who won't go quietly. Awful things would no doubt happen mostly unremarked in the western media lest they pollute the binary good vs evil story. Ukraine has fought valiantly and established their claim to true nationhood based on blood sacrifice but they are nearing the point of collapse. Let those provinces go , establish peace and a chastened Russia will no doubt have to accept this new reality.

But the now problem is we have  helped forged the new “Axis-of-Evil”  for a Russia that was historically wary of China - the difference between this and WW2 is Germany didn’t have the land and resources for a “Greater Germany'' so saw military expansionism as being  essential to achieve that. Of resources and land Russia has huge amounts and we have rammed them into a friendship, without boundaries with the world’ largest manufacturing powerhouse.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, rabas said:

 

I think the Ukraine join NATO to prevent attack option expired in 2014, but still you make an interesting point. As for Putin's Russia attacking NATO, he's been threatening this from the rooftops from the start of the war, even naming specific countries to take or which capitals to nuke.

 

This brings us to a second hypocritical point, would/could Russia attack NATO, or do they lie incessantly. Got to be A or B.

 

Putin is blustering, as such do, but if NATO boots go into Ukraine it is one step closer to MAD.

Putin is not the only member of the Russian government and most likely they are aligned in their thinking.

 

Would Putin carry out a first strike- if pushed too far, who knows? Do any posters on here want to find out?

[thaibeachlovers]

24 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Whisper it quietly but Russia is tapped out in invading and holding onto the four oblasts that it considers theirs. He may be evil and paranoid but he's not stupid he won't touch a NATO country and he's wise not to do so.

Oh dear, not toeing the western propaganda line that if Putin isn't stopped in Ukraine he'll be in Brussels in a jiffy.

That, is obviously a  nonsense. Russia was repelled severely in the early stages, and unless he has a secret clone army stashed on a distant planet, IMO there is no chance he will invade a NATO country.

Anyway, there is no reason to do so. Europe likely has nothing he wants.

 

BTW I was saying that he isn't going to send his tanks into Poland quite some time ago.

[beautifulthailand99]

Can I post a propaganda video made by Ukrainian film producer who is fighting in Ukraine which is in English ?