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The US Fed has just cut rates by 50 points to 5.75%

Correct.

Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75%, Cites `Downside' Risks

By Brendan Murray

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve, in an unscheduled meeting, cut the discount rate to 5.75 percent from 6.25 percent, noting market conditions have deteriorated since it last met Aug. 7.

``Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward, '' the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement. ``The downside risks have increased appreciably.''

The FOMC left the overnight federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25 percent.

Last Updated: August 17, 2007 08:16 EDT

From: Bloomberg

edit:

The European stock markets were very nervous but JUMPED UP after the news of the rate-cut by the FED; some now up more than +2%

LaoPo

First shoe (i.e. discount window rate) dropped ... just waiting for the second (i.e. Fed Funds rate). Anti-climax & final burial would possibly be Ch. 11 filing of some big mortgage financials.

After yesterdays action by the FED, you won't be seeing any Countrywides or Washington Mutuals going C-11, if anything they will be takeover candidates. I do agree that the FED funds rate will likely come down by 50 basis points at the September FOMC meeting, what will be interesting to see is if the discount rate gets lowered further at that meeting (or sooner) as well.

Perhaps, some weaker fund management firms as appetizers ...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070818/bs_nm/..._9oZ26J2dOyBhIF

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Perhaps, some weaker fund management firms as appetizers ...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070818/bs_nm/..._9oZ26J2dOyBhIF

Ouch..!!! :D

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sentinel Management Group Inc., a U.S. futures commission merchant whose decision to freeze client accounts on Tuesday helped roil global financial markets, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection late on Friday."

Happy I'm not a client... :o

LaoPo

Edited by LaoPo
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There's a lot more -----OUCH :o ----- out there:

Mortgage lender lays off nearly 6,000

"TUCSON, Ariz. - First Magnus Financial Corp., a national mortgage lender that is suspending operations, says it has laid off 99 percent of its nearly 6,000* employees nationwide and closed all of its more than 300 offices"

"First Magnus, which calls itself one of the largest privately held mortgage banking operations in the country, funded more than $30 billion in loans in 2006."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070818/ap_on_...c_EUu8lwLmb.HQA

* that means: 5.940 employees on the streets.... :D

LaoPo

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There's a lot more -----OUCH :o ----- out there:

Mortgage lender lays off nearly 6,000

"TUCSON, Ariz. - First Magnus Financial Corp., a national mortgage lender that is suspending operations, says it has laid off 99 percent of its nearly 6,000* employees nationwide and closed all of its more than 300 offices"

"First Magnus, which calls itself one of the largest privately held mortgage banking operations in the country, funded more than $30 billion in loans in 2006."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070818/ap_on_...c_EUu8lwLmb.HQA

* that means: 5.940 employees on the streets.... :D

LaoPo

While I am sorry to see anyone lose their job, I am glad to see some of these hedge funds and irresposible and greedy private equity groups exit stage left. I think that more hedge funds will be heading there over the coming months, and maybe finally the U.S. congress will begin to bring some degree of regulation and transparency to the hedge fund industry. Lets face it, the current problem is a liquidity crisis created by these overtly greedy hedge funds and private equity groups that usually leveraged their investments by 10 times or more. If you look back at my posts from 3-4 months ago you will see that I was the voice in the wilderness warning of these hedge funds and their reckless business practices! As the FED has moved and will continue to move to increase liquidity, some of these hedge funds that should have gone belly up will be saved, but as the old saying goes you can't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

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There's a lot more -----OUCH :D ----- out there:

Mortgage lender lays off nearly 6,000

"TUCSON, Ariz. - First Magnus Financial Corp., a national mortgage lender that is suspending operations, says it has laid off 99 percent of its nearly 6,000* employees nationwide and closed all of its more than 300 offices"

"First Magnus, which calls itself one of the largest privately held mortgage banking operations in the country, funded more than $30 billion in loans in 2006."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070818/ap_on_...c_EUu8lwLmb.HQA

* that means: 5.940 employees on the streets.... :D

LaoPo

While I am sorry to see anyone lose their job, I am glad to see some of these hedge funds and irresposible and greedy private equity groups exit stage left. I think that more hedge funds will be heading there over the coming months, and maybe finally the U.S. congress will begin to bring some degree of regulation and transparency to the hedge fund industry. Lets face it, the current problem is a liquidity crisis created by these overtly greedy hedge funds and private equity groups that usually leveraged their investments by 10 times or more. If you look back at my posts from 3-4 months ago you will see that I was the voice in the wilderness warning of these hedge funds and their reckless business practices! As the FED has moved and will continue to move to increase liquidity, some of these hedge funds that should have gone belly up will be saved, but as the old saying goes you can't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

That's right and giving the patients more and more Aspirins, but not curing the illnesses, isn't a very good idea.

IMHO the problem is that the US government and the FED let these institutions/banks and hedge funds create the now-existing problems. They should have taken action a looong time ago and stop them.

edit note:

The above mentioned mortgage broker was founded in October 1996 with 12 people.

By 1998 approaches a turnover of $ 1 Billion;

by 2003, $ 16 Billion across 30 states.

2005: $ 27 Billion

2006: $ 30 Billion in home mortgages.

2007: on the way to bankruptcy with 6,000 employees.

http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:qf10h...lient=firefox-a

:o

LaoPo

Edited by LaoPo
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I would not call a company that was founded with 12 people 10 years ago that was built up to employing 6000 people greedy , hedge funds are good for the markets they give liquidity they have given a lot of people a good living for many years . The markets are heavy regulated hedge funds are not the root of the problems .

JB

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There's a lot more -----OUCH :o ----- out there:

Mortgage lender lays off nearly 6,000

"TUCSON, Ariz. - First Magnus Financial Corp., a national mortgage lender that is suspending operations, says it has laid off 99 percent of its nearly 6,000* employees nationwide and closed all of its more than 300 offices"

"First Magnus, which calls itself one of the largest privately held mortgage banking operations in the country, funded more than $30 billion in loans in 2006."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070818/ap_on_...c_EUu8lwLmb.HQA

* that means: 5.940 employees on the streets.... :D

LaoPo

While I am sorry to see anyone lose their job, I am glad to see some of these hedge funds and irresposible and greedy private equity groups exit stage left. I think that more hedge funds will be heading there over the coming months, and maybe finally the U.S. congress will begin to bring some degree of regulation and transparency to the hedge fund industry. Lets face it, the current problem is a liquidity crisis created by these overtly greedy hedge funds and private equity groups that usually leveraged their investments by 10 times or more. If you look back at my posts from 3-4 months ago you will see that I was the voice in the wilderness warning of these hedge funds and their reckless business practices! As the FED has moved and will continue to move to increase liquidity, some of these hedge funds that should have gone belly up will be saved, but as the old saying goes you can't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Vegas Vic Spot on!!!

and just as a reminder here are the disussions from 4 months ago..

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1286877

as per the debate that Vegas and I had with others about hedge funds

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1275968

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I would not call a company that was founded with 12 people 10 years ago that was built up to employing 6000 people greedy , hedge funds are good for the markets they give liquidity they have given a lot of people a good living for many years . The markets are heavy regulated hedge funds are not the root of the problems .

JB

They are the necessary evils in the modern world!!!

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I would not call a company that was founded with 12 people 10 years ago that was built up to employing 6000 people greedy , hedge funds are good for the markets they give liquidity they have given a lot of people a good living for many years . The markets are heavy regulated hedge funds are not the root of the problems .

JB

They are the necessary evils in the modern world!!!

Please explaine this post .

JB

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Big investors fleeing risk

State Street report: Big-money investors at one-year high for risk aversion.

August 10 2007: 8:43 AM EDT

LONDON (Reuters) -- Big-money institutional investors have turned more risk averse than at any time since August last year, taking positions they typically do not reverse quickly, State Street data showed Friday.

The U.S. financial services firm said its clients, who keep some $13.04 trillion with it as a custodian, have moved into what it called a "safety first" regime.

This is characterized by moving from emerging to developed market equities, embracing bonds and unwinding currency "carry" trades.

Institutional investors tend to take a longer-term view of markets than other investors, so shifts in their strategy can have a significant impact on a market's recovery.

The firm said that since September last year investors had been taking positions reflective either of abundant liquidity or leverage opportunities.

Another dark day looms for stocks

"A quick move back to risk-seeking is unlikely given ... previous history ... and the backdrop of markets," State Street said in a note.

Specifically, the latest data showed risk averse moves such as a sharp fall in demand for emerging Asian equities.

State Street said that a month ago, flows into emerging Asia equities were in the 65th percentile, meaning that they had been larger on only 35 percent of occasions over 10 years.

In the latest data, however, they were in the 5th percentile - almost the lowest level of demand seen since it started collecting data.

Similarly, institutional investors have been unwinding the carry trades in which they have borrowed in low-yield currencies such as the Japanese yen to invest in assets in higher-yielding currencies.

The latest data showed flows into yen rising. A month ago, they were in the 13th percentile. This rose to the 39th percentile in the latest report.

State Street said the risk-averse moves may reflect not just a search for safety but a cashing-in of winning trades.

It also noted that "safety first" was not the most risk-averse regime that it uses to characterize its clients' actions.

That would be what it calls "riot point" and is marked by indiscriminate equity selling.

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Band-Aid or cure?

Stock investors cheered the Fed's discount-rate cut and may keep cheering Monday. But beyond that, it's back to V for volatility.

By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer

August 17 2007: 4:59 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wall Streeters got a break Friday when the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate - goosing market confidence.

What they're not likely to get a break from anytime soon though is the extreme stock market volatility that's kept them on edge for months.

Stocks jumped Friday after the Fed made the rare move of cutting its largely symbolic discount rate in a bid to help restore faith in the badly shaken credit markets.

The rally followed Thursday's rollercoaster ride, when the Dow bounced back from a 342-point drop to close down just 15 points - but only after the market fell far enough to get near a "correction" of 10 percent from the highs hit just last month.

Although the Fed didn't cut its more closely tracked federal funds rate, which affects consumer loans, the nation's central bank did cut the discount rate - which affects banks and other lenders.

The move was important symbolically, showing that the Fed is aware that the subprime lending crisis has shaken financial market confidence over the summer. It was also significant, analysts said, in that it could egg on banks who were previously too wary to lend money. This in turn could help a variety of financial stocks and by turn, the broader market.

But what the Fed move probably won't do, analysts say, is end the day-to-day seesawing that's been the stock market's MO during this unusually busy summer on Wall Street.

"You've gone from complete despair and pessimism on the part of investors to a calming but still very fluid and volatile period ahead," said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist at Riley Asset Management.

Fed cuts discount rate

Volatility probably won't disappear because the problems with the mortgage and credit markets aren't going to go away, said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer and founder at Tradition Capital Management.

"You're going to see more hedge fund problems, more funds withdrawing money and hedge funds getting shuttered," Halliburton said. "Stock volatility will likely remain high through year-end."

The Fed's move Friday is a help but a temporary one, the analysts say.

"It's a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound," said Chris Johnson, chief investment officer at Johnson Research Group.

The impact of tightening credit after a period of great liquidity has roiled markets all summer, coming after the housing market collapse and fallout from problems in the subprime mortgage market - loans made to consumers with bad credit.

A variety of mortgage lenders - including Countrywide Financial (Charts, Fortune 500) most recently - have suffered dramatic financial setbacks, while investment banks such as Goldman Sachs (Charts, Fortune 500) and BNP Paribas have had to freeze withdrawals from certain funds because of deteriorating market conditions.

The fallout has sent stock markets around the globe falling and spurred central banks worldwide to infuse billions into their banking systems. In light of the ongoing worries, Friday's discount rate cut and a cut in the fed funds rate next month are unlikely to reverse the ongoing problems in the markets.

"The bottom line is the credit situation, the subprime situation, and the confluence of all these items runs a lot deeper through the Street than a Fed move or even a Fed rate cut can fix," Johnson said.

The move soothes some of the nerves in the debt market for the time being, but to think longer-term problems have dissipated would be "naive," said Ryan Atkinson, vice president and market analyst at Balestra Capital.

"By lowering the discount rate, the Fed can target those banks that were too worried to lend money," Atkinson said. "That will settle things in the short-run, but won't help the long-term issue."

The smart money speaks

For stock market participants, the most important takeaway from the Fed move, and especially the statement, is that the bank has changed its emphasis from the last Fed policy meeting Aug. 8, said Riley.

"There was a fear that the Fed was so focused on inflation that it would risk the economy suffering," he said. "So it's encouraging that the bankers acknowledge that the economy is at risk of being undermined by the credit crisis and deterioration in housing."

The acknowledgment gives the bank room to cut rates at the next policy meeting on Sept. 18, something the market would like.

But on the downside, the acknowledgment could also spell bigger problems farther down the road, said Stephen Leeb, president at Leeb Capital Management.

"The statement shows that the Fed doesn't have many tools available to both fight inflation and keep the economy on track and that it's willing to tolerate higher inflation rather than a slowdown in economic growth," Leeb said. "Inflation is going to be a big concern for the markets six or 12 months out."

Leeb said that's because economic growth worldwide continues at a rapid pace, despite recent signs of a U.S. slowdown.

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I would not call a company that was founded with 12 people 10 years ago that was built up to employing 6000 people greedy , hedge funds are good for the markets they give liquidity they have given a lot of people a good living for many years . The markets are heavy regulated hedge funds are not the root of the problems .

JB

You couldn't possibily be more inaccurate. The hedge fund industry has gone (and still is) virtually unregulated and has seen to it that every single bill that has been put forward to give even the slightest regulation or transparancy in hedge funds, does not make it out of committee. They have poured in more money to buy Congress than any other lobbing group with the exception of big pharma and the tobacco lobby. They own politicians in both parties but there ace in the hole is the chairman of the senate banking committee Chris Dodd, who has single handedly seen to it that no meaningful legislation on hedge funds gets out of his committee, and has killed any bill reaching the senate floor (as shown by 60 minutes in there expose). Mr. Dodd of Conneticuit (the hedge funds home turf) recieved 6 million dollars from the hedge fund indusry in his last political campaign. While I hate to see this liquidity crisis, it may be a good thing if it leads to legislation regulating the hedge fund industry, and to many hedge funds going under. The hedge fund industry and their limitless greed is indeed the primary reason for this current liquidity crisis, so the next time that you attempt to defend the indefenseable why don't you try and figure out how many lives are ruined every time a hedge fund manager worth $2 billion decides that he wants to be worth $3 billion.

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I would not call a company that was founded with 12 people 10 years ago that was built up to employing 6000 people greedy , hedge funds are good for the markets they give liquidity they have given a lot of people a good living for many years . The markets are heavy regulated hedge funds are not the root of the problems .

JB

You couldn't possibily be more inaccurate. The hedge fund industry has gone (and still is) virtually unregulated and has seen to it that every single bill that has been put forward to give even the slightest regulation or transparancy in hedge funds, does not make it out of committee. They have poured in more money to buy Congress than any other lobbing group with the exception of big pharma and the tobacco lobby. They own politicians in both parties but there ace in the hole is the chairman of the senate banking committee Chris Dodd, who has single handedly seen to it that no meaningful legislation on hedge funds gets out of his committee, and has killed any bill reaching the senate floor (as shown by 60 minutes in there expose). Mr. Dodd of Conneticuit (the hedge funds home turf) recieved 6 million dollars from the hedge fund indusry in his last political campaign. While I hate to see this liquidity crisis, it may be a good thing if it leads to legislation regulating the hedge fund industry, and to many hedge funds going under. The hedge fund industry and their limitless greed is indeed the primary reason for this current liquidity crisis, so the next time that you attempt to defend the indefenseable why don't you try and figure out how many lives are ruined every time a hedge fund manager worth $2 billion decides that he wants to be worth $3 billion.

How would a hedge fund manager taking his fund from two billion to three billion ruin lives ................

As for funds being unregulated thats nonsense .

JB

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Asian Stocks May Rally After Federal Reserve Cuts Discount Rate

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg)

New Zealand's NZX 50 Index, Asia's first benchmark to start trading, jumped 2.5 percent as of 11:30 a.m. in Wellington. The S&P/ASX 200 Index futures contract due in September climbed 3.4 percent to 5,778 at 6:59 a.m. in Sydney.

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...r=world_indices

LaoPo

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As for funds being unregulated thats nonsense .

Mutual funds are quite regulated. Hedge funds are barely regulated at all; in fact, they're not even required to register with the SEC.

http://www.sec.gov/answers/hedge.htm

My prediction - as soon as some pension plan somewhere discloses a big hit in a hedge fund, Congress will be all over regulation. Right now it's rich people's losses, but move it to the working folks and politicians and the media will run with it. Even if the loss is insignificant relative to the fund's value as long as the amount sounds large, it's on.

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Asian Stocks May Rally After Federal Reserve Cuts Discount Rate

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg)

New Zealand's NZX 50 Index, Asia's first benchmark to start trading, jumped 2.5 percent as of 11:30 a.m. in Wellington. The S&P/ASX 200 Index futures contract due in September climbed 3.4 percent to 5,778 at 6:59 a.m. in Sydney.

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...r=world_indices

LaoPo

Not will, but how high? 3%, 5% or 7%. For Thailand, there is an added incentive on the favourable voting on the draft constitution.

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yeah, stockmarkets, hedge fonds, etc etc......the biggest PLAYground on earth for gamblers......was it ever supposed to be like that?????

hope all the "gamblers" which have no clue how markets work, but buy and sale without any knowledge of the companies behind the numbers will loose their money one sunny day :o

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yeah, stockmarkets, hedge fonds, etc etc......the biggest PLAYground on earth for gamblers......was it ever supposed to be like that?????

hope all the "gamblers" which have no clue how markets work, but buy and sale without any knowledge of the companies behind the numbers will loose their money one sunny day :o

Gambling maybe, but it's rigged so that over the long term you win by owning stocks.

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yeah, stockmarkets, hedge fonds, etc etc......the biggest PLAYground on earth for gamblers......was it ever supposed to be like that?????

hope all the "gamblers" which have no clue how markets work, but buy and sale without any knowledge of the companies behind the numbers will loose their money one sunny day :o

Gambling maybe, but it's rigged so that over the long term you win by owning stocks.

rigged? not so sure about that. Good stocks will always come thru, but its amazing to me how many invest in crap shares for the quick gain, really risky unless you have insider info. eg PSAP IEC PICNI ......etc

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Asian Stocks Jump Most in 5 Years

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks jumped the most in five years after the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut its discount rate, halting a global equities sell-off that erased more than $5.5 trillion of market value.

Macquarie Bank Ltd. had its biggest advance in a decade and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. the largest since November 2005. Canon Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. climbed on reduced concern the U.S. economy will slow. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and South Korea's Kospi index were set for their best gains in at least three years.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index added 4.2 percent to 142.95 at 12:58 p.m. in Tokyo, climbing the most since March 2002. The measure lost 8 percent last week, the largest weekly decline in 17 years.

``Stocks will recover some of the losses from the exaggerated falls of late,'' said Eom Giyo, who helps manage the equivalent of $1.3 billion at Woori Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. in Seoul. ``This is an opportunity to buy up companies with good profit growth on the cheap.''

The Nikkei 225 climbed 3.7 percent, the Hang Seng Index 4 percent and the Kospi 5 percent. China's CSI 300 Index surged 4.7 percent to a record. All markets open for trading advanced, driving benchmarks up by at least 2 percent throughout the region. The Philippines was closed for a holiday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=news

Thai SET is: 781.79 23.37 +3.08% Time: around 1PM

LaoPo

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Blaming hedge fonds is really just a cheap excuse. Everything whats listed at any exchange can and should be allowed to be traded however one likes. Why "regulate" their activities?

Admittedtly there are many companies listed at stock exchanges with fantasy business models but whose fault is that and who said that you should trade/invest with them. Simply keep your fingers away if you dont know how to do it and accept that you have to permanently adjust to the changing market environment.

The only thing what is unfair is that you as a private investor/trader are regulated when you play with your risk capital (which was already taxed when you earned it) and get milked again in case you make profits.

You alone are responsible for your losses and nobody else and also you are the gamblers when you lose and continue.

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The SET is currently testing (breaching, for the moment) the 780 level. It's an area that should provide support in a bullish market environment. If it doesn't, I would expect a rapid drop to 725-740 level. If that doesn't hold, IMO this run is over.

well spoken ,

we're back to the 780's , having been down to visit the 40's ,

perhaps another look in your crystal ball ?? , it appears to be working .

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Always seems to me that Asian investors are the last to realize the situation is pretty bad and get out. The Americas and Europe get out first leaving Asia chasing their tails. Watch as the US drops again tonight and Asia goes wild tomorrow morning.

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hedge funds are not necc evils - but they are evils.

they and derivitives are so complicated that the net result is that no one even the financial monkeys can even understand them. proof - sub prime disaster before your eyes.

they are unregulated becasue they cannot be understood or valued (often)

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The SET is currently testing (breaching, for the moment) the 780 level. It's an area that should provide support in a bullish market environment. If it doesn't, I would expect a rapid drop to 725-740 level. If that doesn't hold, IMO this run is over.

well spoken ,

we're back to the 780's , having been down to visit the 40's ,

perhaps another look in your crystal ball ?? , it appears to be working .

I try not to suggest to others what they should do. One gets enough ridicule mentioning what one has done themself. Be that as it may, I'm long TTF since here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1480187

I'm long the Sept ES from here:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?s=...t&p=1480277

And I'm short the GBP from a couple of weeks ago, covering 1/3 on the 15th.

I am a trader I am not an investor. Two different animals with two differnt sets of needs.

S&P 500 at the same level it was 8 years ago + paltry dividend - greater inflation (than dividend).

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Association of Securities and Asset Management Companies believe public referendum to have positive outcome on SET

The Chairman of the Association of Securities and Asset Management Companies believes that the Stock Exchange of Thailand will react positively to the public referendum outcome.

Mr. Marin Tharap (มาริษ ท่าราบ) expressed his belief that the results of the public referendum outcome on the Stock Exchange of Thailand's performance today should be positive. Foreign investors have shown great interest in Thailand's politics as the nation's political situation will influence its economy in the future.

The Chairman of the Association of Securities and Asset Management Companies said that investors must differentiate between the effect of Thailand's politics and the effects of sub prime mortgage loans in the United States on the Thai economy. Mr. Marin said that the US real estate market will play a pivotal role in the development of Thailand's economy, and once the market recovers, foreign investment in Thailand will increase accordingly.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 20 August 2007

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