Watch Your Steps At Thai SET...

[LaoPo]

China, Thai Central Bankers Signal Asia Coping With U.S. Crisis

By Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Judy Chen

Sept. 20 (Bloomberg) -- China and Thailand's central bankers said there has been limited fallout for their banks from the U.S. credit crisis that sent Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and wiped $19 trillion from world stocks in the past year.

``There is not much impact on Asia this time because the problems haven't taken place here,'' Bank of Thailand Governor Tarisa Watanagase told reporters today in Bangkok, where she is hosting a meeting of central bankers. ``So far the impact on Thai banks is very little.''

Tarisa Watanagase, governor of the Bank of Thailand, speaks during an interview in Bangkok, Sept. 18, 2008. Photographer: Adam Oswell/Bloomberg News

The region's policy makers this week played down concerns that their countries will be subjected to a meltdown similar to that of 1997, saying contagion from the U.S. turmoil is unlikely to infect their financial systems. Asia's key stock index rebounded yesterday from a three-year low as central banks pumped cash into money markets and the U.S. worked on plans to shore up banks and insurers.

``The direct impact of the subprime crisis is currently limited,'' China central bank Deputy Governor Su Ning said at a financial conference today in Shanghai. Still, ``China will be highly alert to the negative effects of unstable global financial markets and decreasing overseas demand.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 5.5 percent yesterday and Asian currencies, including the South Korean won, Philippine peso and Indonesia rupiah, advanced. The U.S. government announced plans to purge banks of bad assets and crack down on speculators who drove down shares of financial companies.

`More Confidence'

The U.S. plan ``should help encourage new investors to have more confidence to inject liquidity into U.S. financial institutions,'' Paisarn Lertkowit, a foreign-exchange dealer at Bangkok Bank Pcl, said today in a telephone interview.

``Capital outflows from Asia may continue for a while,'' he said. ``When it becomes clear that the U.S. is gradually recovering, funds will start to flow back.''

Central banks in Japan and Australia pumped $113 billion into money markets this week, joining European and U.S. counterparts in supporting the financial system and attempting to revive confidence. Earlier in the week, China cut interest rates for the first time in six years and allowed most banks to set aside less reserves.

``We central bankers need to be watchful and decisive,'' Tarisa said today. ``We have a swap arrangement between us and standby credit to inject liquidity if problems arise.''

Central banks around the region have boosted cooperation to strengthen their financial markets and set up emergency measures to bail out their systems in case of crisis. Japan, South Korea, China and Asean countries are discussing the creation of a pool of $80 billion in Asian foreign-exchange reserves to be tapped in case the nations need to protect currencies.

Regional Safeguards

The reserve pool is an expansion of a current arrangement that only allows for bilateral currency swaps. It is designed to ensure central banks have enough to shield their currencies from speculative attacks like those that depleted the reserves of some countries during the Asian financial crisis a decade ago.

The region has since accumulated more than $3.3 trillion of reserves, about half of the global total.

Thailand, which triggered the Asian financial crisis with the devaluation of its baht in July 1997, has no shortage of capital and the nation's lenders are ``strong and resilient,'' Tarisa said this week.

AIG Retail Bank Pcl, a Thai unit of American International Group Inc., has adequate assets and isn't affected by the problems that led to the U.S. government's $85 billion takeover of its parent, President Charly Madan said on Sept. 18.

Chinese Banks

Chinese banks may sustain limited negative effects from the plummeting value of related investments, said Ken Peng, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Shanghai.

Lehman filed the biggest bankruptcy in history on Sept. 15, listing $613 billion of debt. Chinese banks including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and Bank of Communications have $454 million at risk as a result, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

``The direct linkages between Chinese financial institutions and American ones are fairly limited,'' Peng said today in a telephone interview. ``The direct holdings are very small compared to the asset base of Chinese firms, so the direct effect is not that significant.''

China will strike a balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, the central bank's Su said today.

``We should continue to be alert to inflation,'' he said. ``We are confident about maintaining the stability of the financial market.''

While China's growth is the fastest of the world's 20 biggest economies, policy makers are concerned that weakening global growth has increased the risk of a slump. The People's Bank of China cut the one-year lending rate to 7.20 percent from 7.47 percent on Sept. 15.

--Bloomberg

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Asian Policy Makers Downplay Concern of Repeat of 1997 Crisis

Thailand, which triggered the Asian financial crisis with the devaluation of its baht in July 1997, faces no shortage of capital, central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase said today, adding that the central bank is ready to inject funds if needed.

Thailand's Tarisa

``Capital outflows may continue in line with the region as U.S. companies repatriate funds,'' Tarisa said. ``But it may be short term because the Fed had already taken action, so the problems should be solved faster and the stock market will return to normal.''

LaoPo

When she said that the Thai SET was around 625.

Today, October 6, less than 2 weeks later, the Thai SET tumbled further, down to 551 and another -6.48%...and reached a 5 year low

The SET has fallen -40% since it's highest point of 906 on October 20, 2007, just 1 year ago.

LaoPo

[Naam]

WHO or WHAT is "SET" LaoPo? i have never seen that dish on any menue. but then... how often do i eat in a restaurant?

[toptuan]

WHO or WHAT is "SET" LaoPo? i have never seen that dish on any menue. but then... how often do i eat in a restaurant?

Every Klingon living in LOS knows it's the "Stock Exchange of Thailand!"

[LaoPo]

WHO or WHAT is "SET" LaoPo? i have never seen that dish on any menue. but then... how often do i eat in a restaurant?

Every Klingon living in LOS knows it's the "Stock Exchange of Thailand!"

I think you are mistaken...it's the "Stock Emptying Trashbin"

LaoPo

[hyperdimension]

The SET has fallen -40% since it's highest point of 906 on October 20, 2007, just 1 year ago.

You mean "fallen 40%".

"fallen -40%" or "-40% lower" are logically incorrect, unless you actually mean "risen 40%" or "40% higher", since rise = -fall.

Similarly, people often say a phrase like "the drawdown is -40%", when it should be "the drawdown is 40%".

When you lose 100 baht, you would say "I lost 100 baht", not "I lost -100 baht".

Edited October 7, 2008 by hyperdimension

[LaoPo]

The SET has fallen -40% since it's highest point of 906 on October 20, 2007, just 1 year ago.

You mean "fallen 40%".

"fallen -40%" or "-40% lower" are logically incorrect, unless you actually mean "risen 40%" or "40% higher", since rise = -fall.

Similarly, people often say a phrase like "the drawdown is -40%", when it should be "the drawdown is 40%".

When you lose 100 baht, you would say "I lost 100 baht", not "I lost -100 baht".

Thank you, never too old to learn, right ?

BUT: When you lose 100 baht, you would say "I lost 100 baht", not "I lost -100 baht" I've never heard anybody say I lost -100 Baht

OK, you're welcome.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Watch Your Steps At Thai SET... was started the end of July 2007 with a SET between 860/880 more or less.

In the meantime the SET has lost 50% from a high of 915, less then a year ago on Oct. 29, 2007. Now at 451.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Thursday, July 26th 2007, global stocks dropped seriously.

If you have stocks on the Thai SET, watch your steps, tomorrow July 27th.

LaoPo

When the OP was posted the SET closed that day, July 26th at 884 points. It went briefly up a little higher to 906 (reaching 918 that trading day) when it reached it highest point on October 20, 2007.

EXACTLY one year later on October 29 the SET closed 500 points lower at 384 points which is 56% down versus July 26, 2007.

It closed today, November 13, 2008 at 424 points; -53% from it's closing high at 906.

BUT...the show is not over yet. If anybody thinks the SET is at it's lowest....I don't think so.

It could go still quite a bit lower than it's bottom of 384.....maybe to around 300 ?

Beware.

LaoPo

Edited November 13, 2008 by LaoPo

[cclub75]

It closed today, November 13, 2008 at 424 points; -53% from it's closing high at 906.

BUT...the show is not over yet. If anybody thinks the SET is at it's lowest....I don't think so.

It could go still quite a bit lower than it's bottom of 384.....maybe to around 300 ?

Beware.

LaoPo

The market is healthy. Where is the problem ?

We need a little chart.

Instead of talking about -XX % from the highs... Let's use a time scale.... we are back 5 years in the past.

http://thaicrisis.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/setocto.gif

Edited November 13, 2008 by cclub75

[LaoPo]

It closed today, November 13, 2008 at 424 points; -53% from it's closing high at 906.

BUT...the show is not over yet. If anybody thinks the SET is at it's lowest....I don't think so.

It could go still quite a bit lower than it's bottom of 384.....maybe to around 300 ?

Beware.

LaoPo

The market is healthy. Where is the problem ?

We need a little chart.

Instead of talking about -XX % from the highs... Let's use a time scale.... we are back 5 years in the past.

http://thaicrisis.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/setocto.gif

....what would we do without the good old charts ..."the market is healthy....."..of course it is !

LaoPo

[Inthai]

Interesting prediction by my broker today....SET will be down to 200 points by year end. Hold on with buying any PTT and other blue chips and start accumulate again when resistance reaches 199....

[LaoPo]

Interesting prediction by my broker today....SET will be down to 200 points by year end. Hold on with buying any PTT and other blue chips and start accumulate again when resistance reaches 199....

That would be another -47% down from Thursday's close at 424.....

But, nothing is impossible anymore.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Interesting prediction by my broker today....SET will be down to 200 points by year end. Hold on with buying any PTT and other blue chips and start accumulate again when resistance reaches 199....

That would be another -47% down from Thursday's close at 424.....

But, nothing is impossible anymore.

LaoPo

Hmmm, possibly. It's got a gap to fill near 280. Couldn't say, beyond that.

[LaoPo]

Interesting prediction by my broker today....SET will be down to 200 points by year end. Hold on with buying any PTT and other blue chips and start accumulate again when resistance reaches 199....

That would be another -47% down from Thursday's close at 424.....

But, nothing is impossible anymore.

LaoPo

Hmmm, possibly. It's got a gap to fill near 280. Couldn't say, beyond that.

So I wasn't too far off with my estimated calculation it could go down to 300 ? But, I can't beat your charts, of course

LaoPo

[henryalleman]

Just keep an eye on some indices.

There have been huge losses the last 6 months on the SET

Bangkok bank

01/10/2008= 101 baht

12/11/2008= 71.50 baht

K-bank

01/10/2008/= 62

13/11/2008= 51

Krung Thai commercial bank

01/10/2008= 6,15

13/10/2008= 3,64

Krung Thai card

01/10/200= 14,60

13/11/200= 7,80

Krung Thai car rent

01/10/200/= 5,15

13/11/2008= 4,28

Phatra securities

01/10/2008= 22,40

13/11/2008= 12.10

BigC

01/10/2008= 42,50

13/11/2008= 31

Siam makro

01/10/2008= 82

13/11/2008= 61,50

True corporation

01/10/2008= 3,64

13/11/2008= 1.45

Dtac

01/10/2008= 39,50

13/11/2008= 32

Dusit Thani

02/10/2008= 29,50

13/11/2008= 18,40

AOT: airports of Thailand

01/10/2008= 30,50

13/11/2008= 18,40

PTT chemical

01/10/2008= 57

13/11/2008= 35,25

And still they say that the Thai economy is not much affected by the international banking crisis. I'm not an financial wizard or expert, I only wonder when the Thai bubble will burst, but I think it will be rather an implosion.

[Chewbacka]

SO............6 months since the last post and the market has started to rebound. Which stocks is all the smart money, with a 5 - 7 year view, going into now?