Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[Mavideol]

the man has some funny ideas... it's not me, it's them 555

Vladimir Putin Just Shared His Very Curious Theory About How The World Really Sees Russia

Rather than blaming his brutal, two-year invasion of Ukraine, he claimed it all comes down to “hostile elites”.

 

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-just-shared-very-134333055.html

 

 

[Mavideol]

I want to see what Mongolia will do, they are a member of the ICC, they have the obligation to follow the protocol they signed, but it appears the ICC it's just another outdated organization same as Nato

Putin visits Mongolia, in defiance of arrest order from international court

While ICC member countries are bound to detain suspects if there is an arrest warrant out against them, there is no enforcement mechanism

 

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/putin-visits-mongolia-defiance-arrest-220059908.html

 

Edited September 3 by Mavideol

[Mavideol]

Will Vladimir Putin be arrested in Mongolia?

https://au.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-arrested-mongolia-122728182.html

 

despite every ICC member state being obliged to detain people against whom arrest warrants have been issued by the world court in The Hague.

Edited September 3 by Mavideol

[Cameroni]

Zelensky caught lying by a major Ukrainian newspaper. They had put to him that the Kursk diversion enabled Russian troops to advance faster on Pokrovsk. Zelensky denied it. After fact checking the paper found this to be untrue, and Russia has indeed advanced faster after the Kursk incursion.

 

In addition a high ranking Ukranian military official has admitted the main aim of the Kursk invasion has failed.

 

"Despite claims by Ukraine’s military leadership that the front had stabilized along a prepared line of defense in the open fields behind Avdiivka, Russian forces continued to take Ukrainian positions at a slow but steady rate.

The situation turned notably for the worse in April, when a botched rotation of parts of two Ukrainian mechanized brigades was exploited by Russian forces near the small town of Ocheretyne.

Catching the rotating Ukrainian units unprepared to defend, Russian forces took the town, including the first line of prepared fortifications that Ukraine had built in the area, and promptly began expanding the salient both in depth and width."

 

https://kyivindependent.com/undistracted-by-kursk-offensive-russia-cuts-deeper-toward-pokrovsk-in-donetsk-oblast/

 

 

[Mavideol]

Opinion - The ordinary people swept up in Putin’s evil war

https://au.yahoo.com/news/opinion-ordinary-people-swept-putin-170000261.html

[Bkk Brian]

Meanwhile..............Ukraine regaining ground from the terrorists

 

 

Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions southeast of Pokrovsk amid continued Russian tactical gains in the area. (1/3)

1/ Geolocated footage published on September 2 indicates that Ukrainian forces regained positions in southwestern Novohrodivka (southeast of Pokrovsk), and the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces in the Pokrovsk direction are currently concentrating attacks near Novohrodivka.

Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces continue to hold Marynivka (due south of Novohrodivka), which Mashovets assessed is hindering Russian forces' ability to advance southward to Selydove (further southeast of Pokrovsk).

[Mavideol]

4 hours ago, Gweiloman said:

Not really. According to the article, in the case of Russia, the land was handed over to Russia so it officially belongs to Russia. In the case of Taiwan, the island was handed back to China by the Japanese so at the time of the civil war, it was Chinese land.

you should read and update your findings, that would help you to avoid making nonsense posts

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur_Annexation

 

Between 1858 and 1860, the Russian Empire annexed territories adjoining the Amur River belonging to the Chinese Qing dynasty through the imposition of unequal treaties.

 

 

[GroveHillWanderer]

It seems there are a number of reports indicating the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk has come to a grinding halt. Here's just one example.

 

 

 

 

[Social Media]

A questionable source site link post and quote has been removed.

 

A questionable source exhibits one or more of the following: extreme bias, consistent promotion of propaganda/conspiracies.

[LosLobo]

19 hours ago, zmisha said:

The funniest thing is...
Let's say to anyone here that Russia is 3-4 times bigger than Ukraine and there are no chances for Ukraine in this war because it simply does not have enough soldiers. The answer would be - haha NATO is 6 times bigger than Russia! And then you should say - wait, if it is NATO, Russia should target its nukes to the US cities. The answer would be - haha it is not NATO! we are just helping Ukraine.

 

So if Russia is fighting against NATO(let's consider such a possibility), we should expect only one decision made at a single moment in the future - the nuclear decision. Or, alternatively, there are no chances for Russia to win in a war against NATO which is 6 times bigger.

I suggest there is nothing funny in this thread or in your post.

Though your post does raise some interesting points, there are a several logical issues to consider:

1. Leading Question/Loaded Question Fallacy: The way some questions are framed, suggesting a specific answer and then commanding what the response should be, can be seen as a leading question fallacy. This approach biases the discussion by pushing towards a predetermined conclusion and limits open, balanced dialogue.
    

2. False Analogy: Comparing the size of Russia and Ukraine to NATO’s size in relation to Russia oversimplifies the situation. Military conflicts involve many factors beyond just numbers, including strategy, alliances, and geopolitical interests.
    

3. Straw Man Argument: The post sets up an oversimplified version of the argument to easily refute it. The complexity of international conflicts means suggesting only two possible outcomes—nuclear war or Russia’s defeat—does not capture the full range of possible scenarios.
    

4. Red Herring: The focus on nuclear threats and size comparisons diverts from the real issues. A thorough understanding of the conflict requires examining political, strategic, and military aspects rather than just size and potential outcomes.
    

5. False Dichotomy: Presenting only two possible outcomes—nuclear decision or Russia’s defeat—ignores other potential scenarios like diplomatic solutions or prolonged conflicts. Military engagements involve numerous variables that go beyond simple size comparisons.
    

6. Oversimplification: The statement that “there are no chances for Russia to win” based on size alone is an oversimplification. The reality of military conflicts involves many factors that cannot be reduced to mere size comparisons.

In summary, while your post raises interesting issues, it suffers from several logical fallacies, including leading questions, false analogies, straw man arguments, red herrings, false dichotomies, and oversimplifications. A more nuanced and open approach would better reflect the complexities of international conflicts and foster a more balanced discussion.

 

[VBer]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

Will Vladimir Putin be arrested in Mongolia?

Mongolia already prepared an army to get him.

[tgw]

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

Will Vladimir Putin be arrested in Mongolia?

https://au.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-arrested-mongolia-122728182.html

 

despite every ICC member state being obliged to detain people against whom arrest warrants have been issued by the world court in The Hague.

 

there is absolutely no chance of Mongolia arresting Putin.
Mongolia is completely landlocked between Russia and China and is a feeble power.

They have absolutely no say in anything.

[beautifulthailand99]

First F16 down.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0532n9pdko.amp

[zmisha]

1 hour ago, tgw said:

 

there is absolutely no chance of Mongolia arresting Putin.
Mongolia is completely landlocked between Russia and China and is a feeble power.

They have absolutely no say in anything.

I know what the leader of Mongolia might be thinking about: "Today I arrest Putin but tomorrow the same court will issue an order to arrest me". That's why Vladimir is sure than nobody will arrest him.

[beautifulthailand99]

Sounds like the training was a sham they got to fly from the back seats and these were the Top Guns.

 

 

https://archive.is/cOXoE#selection-2227.0-2231.121

 

Juice and Moonfish stood out for their talent when they rode in F-15 jet fighters for the first time the following year during an exchange program in California, said now-retired Col. Robert Swertfager, a fighter pilot with the California Air National Guard. During their rides the U.S. pilots gave the controls to their Ukrainian friends, letting Juice and Moonfish fly the American jets from the back seat.
But their experiences made them increasingly disillusioned with the state of their own air force: like the wider Ukrainian military, it was bloated and dysfunctional.
When Juice’s contract expired in 2021, he quit. In an open letter, he complained about bureaucracy, poor work conditions and the lack of a policy to integrate NATO standards. Pay was the equivalent of just $800 a month.

Edited September 3 by beautifulthailand99

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

First F16 down.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0532n9pdko.amp

Check 5 day old posts for same...............

[beautifulthailand99]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Check 5 day old posts for same...............

I am a busy man I have been away again. Just catching up.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

I am a busy man I have been away again. Just catching up.

Who cares how busy you are or anyone else, off topic nonsense, its already been posted 5 days ago

[beautifulthailand99]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Who cares how busy you are or anyone else, off topic nonsense, its already been posted 5 days ago

Thanks for the useful info - noted.

[Bkk Brian]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Thanks for the useful info - noted.

What useful info. If you were catching up then you would have re read previous posts

[beautifulthailand99]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/03/ukrainian-troops-audacious-incursion-russia-kursk

 

While the Kursk operation has created a feelgood moment, there remains an acute awareness among many Ukrainian soldiers that things in the east of the country are looking increasingly bleak, as Russia steadily closes in on the city of Pokrovsk. If that advance continues, the whispered questions about whether the Kursk adventure was worth it are likely to get louder.

For now, though, the operation remains a symbol of Ukrainian success on the battlefield. “We can use it to create a buffer zone alone the border to reduce attacks on us. And at minimum, we’ve got prisoners to exchange, and have given our population something to be happy about,” said Artem.

 

“They’re in a desperate David versus Goliath battle and this appeals to their rebellious spirit,” said one western diplomat in Kyiv, adding that the Kursk operation had boosted the mood among the political elite immeasurably in recent weeks. (my bold interesting choice of words from a diplomat).

Edited September 3 by beautifulthailand99

[zmisha]

3 hours ago, LosLobo said:

 

1. Red Herring: The focus on nuclear threats and size comparisons diverts from the real issues. A thorough understanding of the conflict requires examining political, strategic, and military aspects rather than just size and potential outcomes.

 

But you have not given a single "political, strategic, and military aspects" why NATO will not use its vastly superior military power. Russian people also don`t see any. So it is still obvious for everyone that Russia will lose the conflict without using nuclear weapons.
Whether Russia can use nuclear weapon or not is another separate question which I would not like to discuss.

[beautifulthailand99]

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-has-not-received-necessary-weapons-to-conduct-required-long-range-strikes-deep-inside-russia-zelensky-says/

 

Kyiv has long argued that restrictions on the use of long-range weapons are stifling its war effort, while Washington claimed that allowing Ukraine to hit deep into Russian territory with its weapons could escalate the situation.

Ukraine has dismissed these arguments and has ramped up pressure to lift the ban in recent weeks amid the ongoing incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast. The White House has not budged on its position, despite some U.S. politicians backing Kyiv’s demands.

 

They are asking for something that doesn't exist. A week or two ago they launched 11 ATACMS at the Kerch Bridge.All of them were intercepted.

 

Ukraine only has a limited supply of US-provided long-range missiles, and the US has made it clear that Kyiv should not expect another significant delivery of ATACMS because of the finite number in US inventories and the long production time of the weapon, according to a US official.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/30/politics/umerov-ukraine-targets-cnntv/index.html

 

[beautifulthailand99]

There's a lot of value for Iran to have a capable partner use and study their weapons against western AD. They can study Patriot performance by timing a salvo for when they have maximum ISR coverage over the target. It's not easy to get testing opportunities like that - NATO will effectively be paying to help Iran refine their weapons systems. Saudis and Qatar both use Patriots. The point that some don't get here us that the US is reluctant to see their high-tech weaponary used in theatre less the Russians develop AD effective measures against them potentially rendering them useless.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-02/ukraine-allies-expect-iran-to-ship-missiles-to-russia-imminently

 

Ukraine Allies Expect Iran to Ship Missiles to Russia Imminently

Deliveries would mark a worrying development, people say
US, NATO have repeatedly warned Tehran against shipments

Edited September 3 by beautifulthailand99

[LosLobo]

18 minutes ago, zmisha said:

But you have not given a single "political, strategic, and military aspects" why NATO will not use its vastly superior military power. Russian people also don`t see any. So it is still obvious for everyone that Russia will lose the conflict without using nuclear weapons.
Whether Russia can use nuclear weapon or not is another separate question which I would not like to discuss.

You seem to be responding to my post about your red herring fallacy with another red herring.

Also, you're discussing nuclear options but then say you don't want to discuss them.

Have a good evening!
 

[Bkk Brian]

7 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

There's a lot of value for Iran to have a capable partner use and study their weapons against western AD. They can study Patriot performance by timing a salvo for when they have maximum ISR coverage over the target. It's not easy to get testing opportunities like that - NATO will effectively be paying to help Iran refine their weapons systems. Saudis and Qatar both use Patriots. The point that some don't get here us that the US is reluctant to see their high-tech weaponary used in theatre less the Russians develop AD effective measures against them potentially rendering them useless.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-02/ukraine-allies-expect-iran-to-ship-missiles-to-russia-imminently

 

Ukraine Allies Expect Iran to Ship Missiles to Russia Imminently

Deliveries would mark a worrying development, people say
US, NATO have repeatedly warned Tehran against shipments

 

Oh dear.............

 

[beautifulthailand99]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

 

Oh dear.............

 

Not sure what your point is here I was adding inisightful significant commentary to a post - no need to reference yours.

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, beautifulthailand99 said:

Not sure what your point is here I was adding inisightful significant commentary to a post - no need to reference yours.

The perhaps you should read my "inisightful significant commentary to a post" 

 

 

Now where would Putin the little dictator be without help from his mates in Iran and NK........

Russia is part of the Axis of Evil

 

[zmisha]

21 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

You seem to be responding to my post about your red herring fallacy with another red herring.

Exactly. I respond to "size comparisons" of NATO vs Russia without "political, strategic, and military aspects".
So there are simply no any "political, strategic, and military aspects" that will reduce the non-nuclear potential of NATO compared to the same of Russia.

As to nuclear things - I have not said anything about the nuclear potential of Russia or NATO - so there's simply nothing to discuss here.

[beautifulthailand99]

6 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

The perhaps you should read my "inisightful significant commentary to a post" 

 

 

Now where would Putin the little dictator be without help from his mates in Iran and NK........

Russia is part of the Axis of Evil

 

As a rule I try and avoid perjorative terms and stick to my take on the facts on the progress of the war and the likely outcomes. But then I was involved in preparing high level briefs for senior goverment members and they were free to propagandize those for public consumption as they felt fit. Old habits die hard.