Keir Starmer's Victory: A Path Forward for Labour

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Keir Starmer's achievement is immense. It is the most remarkable turnaround in recent British electoral history and the most stunning in the 120-year history of the Labour Party. His leadership, his changing of Labour, has been focused, determined, and ruthlessly effective. He appointed exceptional talent to conduct the change and put the most capable frontbenchers in the most important positions for future government. These are all qualities that bode well for his leadership of the country.

 

But there is no doubting that this was also the most peculiar election of recent times. There was a huge desire not just to put the Conservative Party out but to punish them. Labour was a credible instrument of punishment. An electoral system really designed for two big parties, plus possibly one "also-ran," has seen not two but four parties all with double-digit proportions of the vote, plus another two also-rans and different varieties of independent splitting many constituency ballots, resulting in a landslide result. Keir will be acutely aware of this.

 

However, people voted for disparate parties knowing full well that doing so would give Labour a big majority. The last throw of the Tory dice was to call upon the electorate not to give Labour a landslide and to explain precisely how this might happen. The advice was ignored, and we have to conclude deliberately. So, he has a mandate. It is for "change," for sure. But what type of change exactly? Stability, not chaos. But after that?

 

What Labour voters want and what Reform UK voters want can point in different directions. What Liberal Democrats want — other than "good things" — is frequently a bit of a mystery. And though we know what Green voters want, and many people support the general aim of protecting the environment, most people do not support their policies. You can make an argument that, although the country has chosen the centre-left to govern, its political centre of gravity also contains signs of moving right. Here is where Keir's decision to keep his manifesto tight and to refuse to mimic a Tory manifesto full of unrealisable promises is a blessing.

 

The five missions he has set out, covering economic growth, the NHS, crime, education, and clean energy, are absolutely the right ambitions and they cover areas of concern that stretch across most of the country. Now he will work on the plan to deliver them. And with the ministers he has chosen and people such as the formidable Sue Gray helping to organise the system, he has sensibly given himself the talent and the room to formulate it, free from too much preconceived baggage.

 

The hardest part of coming into government is recognising that the skill set that brought you to government is not the same as the skill set you need to stay there. Winning power is all about being The Great Persuader. Exercising power is all about being The Great Chief Executive. The former role consists of speeches, symbolic moments of connection, slogans, kissing babies, wooing voters, and all the performative art of a good campaign. The latter role is about the intellectual and practical graft of policy and delivery. Guess which is harder.

 

The size of Labour's majority gives the new government a massive opportunity to put in place a policy agenda that can transform the country over time and bring into being a new coalition of support if it starts with a hard-headed appreciation of the reality it is inheriting and the way the world is changing. Britain's politics over the past few years has often been depressingly introspective at the very moment the world is turning on its axis. The Labour Party always wants to correct social injustice, and quite rightly. But this Labour leadership understands that without economic growth and reform of services and welfare, it will be unable to do so.

 

Keir and Rachel Reeves, the new chancellor of the exchequer, recognise we have reached the limits of traditional tax and spend to solve our problems. We have at present high levels of both, and high levels of debt, but poor outcomes. It is a horrible and unvirtuous circle. There are things that can be done to kickstart economic growth, in particular reforming the hopelessly slow and bureaucratic planning system, both infrastructure and housing, and fixing the worst aspects of the post-Brexit trade deal. But the only game-changer is the full embrace of the potential of technology, especially the new developments in artificial intelligence (AI).

 

For this reason, I don't think there has ever been a better or more exciting time to be governing. My institute will this week hold its Future of Britain conference. To coincide with it, we will publish detailed reports that show how the unvirtuous circle can be turned virtuous by accelerating the application of technological innovation. The spread of the application of AI by the private sector and its encouragement by appropriate government policy is the only answer to Britain's productivity challenge and, over time, it can turbocharge growth.

 

We show how a switch to prevention in healthcare, using new treatments for everything from cardiovascular disease and cancer protection to obesity drugs, not only yields benefits in health but the wealth of the country, adding employment and growth. We need this urgently. Since 2019, we have seen the number of working-age people off work on long-term sickness rise by 800,000 to a record 2.8 million. Spending on disability and incapacity benefits has risen by a whopping £18 billion; and spending on mental health in England is now 10 per cent of the NHS budget.

 

We show how applying AI to the processes of government can cut workforce time by 20 per cent, and, by a specific analysis of the Department for Work and Pensions, how both the way the department operates and the service it gives to those who depend on it can be transformed, as well as cutting the large benefit fraud bill. Using studies from around the world, we show how AI can change education both for teachers and students. And we highlight the fact that, after the US and China, Britain occupies third position in AI globally, and therefore focusing on it and associated areas, such as life sciences and clean energy, is also the right industrial strategy. Over two terms of government, we estimate the savings run into the tens of billions, allowing us to get growth back to the levels it was in the early part of the century.

 

For the avoidance of doubt, I know this technological revolution has its downsides, and generative AI, like any general-purpose technology, can be used for bad as well as good. But it is a fact. Actually, this 21st-century technological revolution is the real-world fact that will change everything. The question is whether we have the imagination to harness it. The companies and countries that do will prosper, and those that don't will fall behind. And at least let's debate it. After a campaign with a week on Rishi Sunak and D-Day, another week or more on the betting scandal, and then endless discussion of polls, not policy, there is surely an appetite!

 

Then there is the challenge of Reform. Here is where British politics has much in common with European politics. Indeed, all over the western world, traditional political parties are suffering disruption. Where the system embeds the two main parties, the disruption is internal. Where the system allows new entrants to emerge, they are running riot everywhere. Look at France or Italy. Cultural issues, as much if not more than economic issues, are at the heart of it. Reform has pillaged the Tory vote in this election, true. But it poses a challenge for Labour too.

 

We need a plan to control immigration. If we don't have rules, we get prejudices. In office, I believed the best solution was a system of identity, so that we know precisely who has a right to be here. With, again, technology, we should move as the world is moving to digital ID. If not, new border controls will have to be highly effective. We need a tough new approach to law and order. At present, criminal elements are modernising faster than law enforcement. And the government should avoid any vulnerability on "wokeism". There is also clearly a challenge in part of the Muslim community, but that is a topic requiring its own special analysis.

 

The country has decided to give Keir and his team a go. That voters should hand Labour one of its biggest victories so soon after handing the party one of its biggest defeats is an enormous tribute to that team. It doesn't matter that, though the chapter headings are in bold print, there are pages of detail to be written. That's an advantage.

 

The Labour Party won, as it always does, by returning to the centre-left. But, contrary to the common critique, the centre ground is not the place of the mushy middle, between the poles of right and left. It is the place of solutions, not ideology; where the policy comes first and the politics second. It can be sensible and radical at the same time. And that is what the country needs. Sir Tony Blair was prime minister from 1997 to 2007 and leader of the Labour Party from 1994 to 2007.

 

Opinion Sir Tony Blair

 

Credit: The Times 2024-07-08

 

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[JonnyF]

Blair back in power with Starmer as his puppet.

 

I wonder if we will hear rumours of WMD in Israel soon?

[proton]

Who writes this rubbish? How can getting 34% of the vote be an 'immense achievement'? They only won by default as the Tories were a total failure, it was a vote against them rather than a vote for Labour.

[Thingamabob]

If Brits think the Tories were a mess they ain't seen nothing yet.

[peter48]

Fantastic news. Broken Britain with healthcare meltdown, cancer waits for many months, medics leaving in droves, public service collapse, no room in  prisons, high inequality compared to Europe, rising child poverty in the regions, chronic housing shortages, sinking state schooling as teachers leave, appalling governance creating tribal divisiveness & hate towards asylum seekers, diversity and minorities of every type. 

 

Tories led by Far Right Wingers have lost the respect of Britain.  With hundreds of new MPs Labour and Liberal Democrats the UK can be like  Europeans from Norway down to Germany in prosperity, healthcare,wellbeing and better governance. Gone are the tricksters, liars, self servers who served themselves not the public. Oh happy days when Sir Keir and Labour can implement decency and social justice to a down beaten country misled for 14yrs by rich arrogant semi-competent Eton school boys.  

Edited July 8 by peter48

[NoshowJones]

8 hours ago, proton said:

Who writes this rubbish? How can getting 34% of the vote be an 'immense achievement'? They only won by default as the Tories were a total failure, it was a vote against them rather than a vote for Labour.

The fact that he is a multimillionaire "Sir" certainly proves that. I wonder if he voted for the "Party of The Working People" himself when he was a young man, say in his twenties.

[RayC]

4 hours ago, NoshowJones said:

The fact that he is a multimillionaire "Sir" certainly proves that.

 

Proves what?

 

4 hours ago, NoshowJones said:

 

I wonder if he voted for the "Party of The Working People" himself when he was a young man, say in his twenties.

 

Given that Starmer was a member of the Labour Young Socialists while at school and the Labour club at university, I'd hazard a guess that there's a fair chance that he voted Labour in any elections.

 

[nauseus]

On 7/8/2024 at 8:42 AM, proton said:

Who writes this rubbish? How can getting 34% of the vote be an 'immense achievement'? They only won by default as the Tories were a total failure, it was a vote against them rather than a vote for Labour.

 

Exactly.