Exit Polls Show France's National Rally Falls Short in Parliamentary Elections

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Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) fell short of expectations in France's parliamentary elections, coming in third place according to exit polls. This result has defied initial predictions that the RN might become the dominant political force following President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap election. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition (NPF) is now projected to win the most seats in the second round, as indicated by multiple exit polls. An IFOP estimate for broadcaster TF1 suggests that the NPF could secure between 180 and 215 seats in parliament, while an Ipsos poll for France TV projects 172-215 seats for the left-wing bloc. BFM TV's projection offers a range of 175-205 seats.

 

President Macron's centrist group, Ensemble, is reported to be narrowly ahead of the RN. After the RN emerged as the leading party in the first round of voting, centrist and leftist parties took a strategic approach, agreeing to withdraw 221 candidates—83 from Macron's camp and 132 from the NPF—to avoid three-way run-offs that could split the vote. This tactical withdrawal appears to have been effective in curbing the RN's advance.

 

Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the left-wing party France Unbowed, which is part of the NPF, expressed immense relief at the exit poll projections, stating, "We saved the Republic." He emphasized that the NPF is ready to govern and described it as the only alternative with a very organized and detailed program. His sentiment captures the optimism and preparedness within the left-wing coalition as they look ahead to potentially leading the country.

 

Marine Le Pen responded to the results by stating that RN's victory had "merely been delayed" and she sees "the seeds of tomorrow's victory in today's result." She criticized President Macron's position as "untenable" and remains confident about her party's future prospects. Jordan Bardella, president of the RN, voiced frustration over the electoral outcome, claiming, "We've been thrown into the arms of the extreme left and of Jean-Luc Melenchon." Bardella argued that the coalitions formed in response to RN's initial success had "paralysed" the French political system and blamed Macron for pushing the country towards uncertainty and instability. He acknowledged the frustration among millions of RN supporters.

 

Macron's office issued a statement saying that the president, as guarantor of the institutions, will respect the choice of the French people. The president is currently analyzing the results and awaiting a complete picture of the electoral landscape. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, a member of Macron's Renaissance party, indicated that he would offer his resignation if the exit polls prove accurate. He stated, "Even though we had three times better results than being envisaged, it doesn't mean that it's a majority. So, faithful to the Republican tradition, I will actually withdraw tomorrow morning."

 

Should the exit polls be accurate, France is poised for a hung parliament, divided among three sizeable groups. This scenario could lead to a period of instability unless the left can negotiate effective deals with other parties. The NPF, a broad left-wing electoral alliance, was formed just under a month ago on June 10 in response to Macron's call for a snap election. It comprises several left-leaning parties and groups, including La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), the Socialist Party, Les Ecologistes, the French Communist Party, Generations, Place Publique, and others. Although the NPF has no official leader, Melenchon is widely regarded as the closest figure to that role, given his prominent position within the coalition.

 

The voter turnout for this election stood at 59.71% by 5 pm local time, a significant increase from the 38.11% turnout at the same time during the 2022 election, according to the interior ministry. The campaign has been marked by volatility, with more than 50 candidates reporting physical attacks. In response to potential unrest, over 30,000 police officers were deployed on voting day to ensure security.

 

The outcome of this election, with the NPF projected to win the most seats, signifies a significant shift in the French political landscape. It highlights the electorate's complex and evolving preferences, as well as the strategic maneuvers by centrist and leftist parties to counter the rise of the far-right RN. As France moves forward, the political dynamics within the country will undoubtedly continue to evolve, with new alliances and strategies shaping the future of its governance.

 

Credit: Sky News 2024-07-08

 

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[simple1]

Excellent news!

[riclag]

I agree with madame Le Pen

 

The seeds of traditional origin  have been planted.

Viva Nationalism

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, riclag said:

I agree with madame Le Pen

 

The seeds of traditional origin  have been planted.

Viva Nationalism

Because the RN didn't exist until this election?

[JonnyF]

The left essentially conspired by tactically withdrawing candidates. If they think this is a long term strategy to win the hearts and minds of French patriots I suspect they are in for a massive shock. 

[placeholder]

34 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The left essentially conspired by tactically withdrawing candidates. If they think this is a long term strategy to win the hearts and minds of French patriots I suspect they are in for a massive shock. 

Nice try:

A coalition of leftist parties won the most seats in France’s parliamentary elections, according to projections based on ballot counts, in a stunning come-from-behind victory fueled by a groundswell of opposition to Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant forces.

https://archive.ph/rKadE

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/french-election-results-2024-4fc64d09?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

Did you notice that voter participation surged in the second round in the face of a possible victory by the RN? 

[riclag]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

The left essentially conspired by tactically withdrawing candidates. If they think this is a long term strategy to win the hearts and minds of French patriots I suspect they are in for a massive shock. 

It seems the progressive globalists are strengthening , teaming up with forces of Radical  extremism from middle eastern countries !

France & Great Britain recent elections has shown this!

Imop

[Gecko123]

The RN may be disappointed, but more people love France and are proud to be French today than the day before. Don't be fooled by Bardella's youth and charm, he is a sinister man. The French have first hand experience about what happens when the extreme right gets into power (Hitler, Mussolini, Franco), and were justifiably alarmed by this prospect. Thank goodness they made the right choice. Vive la France.

[candide]

3 hours ago, riclag said:

I agree with madame Le Pen

 

The seeds of traditional origin  have been planted.

Viva Nationalism

"I agree with madame Le Pen".

Who would have thought? 😃

[Rimmer]

Following a report I have removed an excess of negative emojis from one member posts,  please take note of the following forum rule:

 

11. You will not troll or stalk other members by misusing forum posts, private messages, reactions, emojis or by any other means.

 

[simple1]

4 hours ago, riclag said:

I agree with madame Le Pen

 

The seeds of traditional origin  have been planted.

Viva Nationalism

 

Nationalism is a source of evil. Additionally, you do know Le Pen is supported by Putin, also Putin previously funded her party?

 

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/07/04/french-elections-putin-s-russia-backs-far-right-rassemblement-national_6676681_4.html

[Hanaguma]

The results clearly show that a combination of fear mongering and collusion can at least delay the forces of change.  I was listening to the news today and they spoke of a "left coalition" compared to the "far right".  I wonder how many times the phrase "far left" is ever used?

[RayC]

2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

The left essentially conspired by tactically withdrawing candidates. If they think this is a long term strategy to win the hearts and minds of French patriots I suspect they are in for a massive shock. 

 

National Rally conspired in exactly the same way by not standing in seats where The Union of the Far Right had candidates more likely to win. 

 

Presumably you also think that National Rally have made a massive strategic error which will backfire?

[susanlea]

32 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

The results clearly show that a combination of fear mongering and collusion can at least delay the forces of change.  I was listening to the news today and they spoke of a "left coalition" compared to the "far right".  I wonder how many times the phrase "far left" is ever used?

No such thing as far right. Media is bought and paid for.

[Red Forever]

1 hour ago, Hanaguma said:

The results clearly show that a combination of fear mongering and collusion can at least delay the forces of change.  I was listening to the news today and they spoke of a "left coalition" compared to the "far right".  I wonder how many times the phrase "far left" is ever used?

Paranoid or what? 

We pesky, leftie, pinko, tree hugging, wokey cokey citizens are just waking up to the threat of extreme right wing nationalism. 

"I love the poorly educated" said the orange moron. 

Any of you right wing nationalists agree with him? 

[susanlea]

4 minutes ago, Red Forever said:

Paranoid or what? 

We pesky, leftie, pinko, tree hugging, wokey cokey citizens are just waking up to the threat of extreme right wing nationalism. 

"I love the poorly educated" said the orange moron. 

Any of you right wing nationalists agree with him? 

No such thing as extreme right.

[susanlea]

Strong border controls is an old school left policy. Now adopted by the right. The right now tries to create work for the middle class while the left wants new arrivals to do a lot of it. The total reverse of the past. 

[Captain Flack]

Reported off topic posts removed. Please remember the topic is “Exit Polls Show France's National Rally Falls Short in Parliamentary Elections”

[Eric Loh]

24 minutes ago, susanlea said:

Strong border controls is an old school left policy. Now adopted by the right. The right now tries to create work for the middle class while the left wants new arrivals to do a lot of it. The total reverse of the past. 

Top jobs for immigrants include graders and sorters of agriculture products, sewing machine operators, agriculture workers, maids and housekeeping cleaners, taxi drivers. Jobs desired by the middle-class LOL. Get a grip. 

[susanlea]

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Top jobs for immigrants include graders and sorters of agriculture products, sewing machine operators, agriculture workers, maids and housekeeping cleaners, taxi drivers. Jobs desired by the middle-class LOL. Get a grip. 

A lot of locals are lazy and don't want to work and the left encourages them to bludge.

[Eric Loh]

10 minutes ago, susanlea said:

A lot of locals are lazy and don't want to work and the left encourages them to bludge.

Republicans is a party of big business. They should do more for the little guy. 

[susanlea]

7 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Republicans is a party of big business. They should do more for the little guy. 

They create jobs. Little guy doesn't want to work. Most western women under 50 can't sew. Those jobs go to immigrants. Lots of Thai ladies can sew. A lot of Thai men can sew too. I've seen them.

[candide]

2 hours ago, Hanaguma said:

The results clearly show that a combination of fear mongering and collusion can at least delay the forces of change.  I was listening to the news today and they spoke of a "left coalition" compared to the "far right".  I wonder how many times the phrase "far left" is ever used?

Splitting hairs?

 

Because there is a right-wing party (LR), and the RN is positioned at the right of this party. You can call it right of right, if you prefer! 😁

 

LFI is commonly called far-left and is not ashamed of being called far-left. The other members of the coalition are left of center (PS), and Green, so the coalition is called left-wing and not far-left.

 

Additionally, standards are different in Europe than in the U.S. Even conservative parties are implementing policies considered as left-wing in the U.S. (I.e. social security), and, for example, the Democrat party would certainly not called left-wing (It's more equivalent to Macron's center-right stance).

 

Why are far-right people ashamed of being called far-right? 😆

 

[susanlea]

1 minute ago, candide said:

Why are far-right people ashamed of being called far-right?

Never met a far right person. 

[simple1]

2 hours ago, susanlea said:

No such thing as far right. Media is bought and paid for.

 

Nonsense There are a number of current day definitions of 'far right' e.g.

 

Far-right politics, or right-wing extremism, is a spectrum of political thought that tends to be radically conservative, ultra-nationalist, and authoritarian, often also including nativist tendencies.^[1] The name derives from the left–right political spectrum, with the "far right" considered further from center than the standard political right.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far-right_politics

[impulse]

I don't know enough to come down on either side in France.  Can someone explain the rioting?  It's being described this way on RT:

 

Riots and looting broke out across France as left-wing supporters flooded the streets to celebrate the New Popular Front coalition's victory over the right-wing National Rally and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, after early results were released on Sunday night.

 

Is that how they celebrate a win?  Burning and looting?  Did the left's win embolden them due to lack of expected consequences?  Or is there another dynamic?

 

[susanlea]

15 minutes ago, simple1 said:

 

Nonsense There are a number of current day definitions of 'far right' e.g.

 

Far-right politics, or right-wing extremism, is a spectrum of political thought that tends to be radically conservative, ultra-nationalist, and authoritarian, often also including nativist tendencies.^[1] The name derives from the left–right political spectrum, with the "far right" considered further from center than the standard political right.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Far-right_politics

Wiki is not a credible link sorry. Leftist website.

[susanlea]

4 minutes ago, impulse said:

I don't know enough to come down on either side in France.  Can someone explain the rioting?  It's being described this way on RT:

 

Riots and looting broke out across France as left-wing supporters flooded the streets to celebrate the New Popular Front coalition's victory over the right-wing National Rally and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, after early results were released on Sunday night.

 

Is that how they celebrate a win?  Burning and looting?  Did the left's win embolden them due to lack of expected consequences?  Or is there another dynamic?

 

Left wing thugs as always. 

[susanlea]

France high unemployment

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/france/unemployment-rate

 

What will the left do? 

[Eric Loh]

9 minutes ago, impulse said:

I don't know enough to come down on either side in France.  Can someone explain the rioting?  It's being described this way on RT:

 

Riots and looting broke out across France as left-wing supporters flooded the streets to celebrate the New Popular Front coalition's victory over the right-wing National Rally and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, after early results were released on Sunday night.

 

Is that how they celebrate a win?  Burning and looting?  Did the left's win embolden them due to lack of expected consequences?  Or is there another dynamic?

 

Those rioters were reported hooded and masked.You can tell they are left or right or just hooligans?