Striking Back: The West's Need for a Stronger Response to Russia's Hybrid War

[Social Media]

 

For too long, the West has tolerated the increasing wave of Russian hybrid attacks on its people, infrastructure, and way of life. It's time to consider much tougher responses. Russian assassinations, explosions, attempts to undermine the transatlantic alliance's democratic system, and other forms of escalating malfeasance have been rampant for years. Recently, this has worsened to include Kremlin-directed sabotage against critical energy infrastructure, defense industries, and other entities supporting Ukraine’s right to self-defense across NATO countries.

 

Assassination plots against leading defense industry executives have led the US to warn against Russia’s “intensifying campaign of subversion.” Despite this, the Western response has been muted and largely passive. Benjamin Schmitt of the Center for European Policy Analysis highlighted this when he asked the Danish prime minister about it in July. She acknowledged that “we are simply being too polite,” but gave no clear response on how the alliance should more appropriately respond.

 

What can the West do? Clearly, it can continue to pursue a low-key response, using counter-intelligence to warn those targeted by the Russians and to stop plots developing, though this clearly does not always prevent the Kremlin from successfully executing attacks across Europe. There are also more robust alternatives. A more aggressive strategy would seek to punish, defeat, and reestablish effective deterrence with the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin is a mobster, and Western thinking should acknowledge this.

 

In the American masterpiece "The Untouchables," the grizzled Chicago beat cop Jim Malone warns Elliot Ness that he can only defeat the gangster Al Capone by achieving escalation dominance. Malone advises Ness that if: “He [Capone] pulls a knife, you pull a gun, he sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue.” Only by making clear that Western patience has been exhausted will the West finally safeguard its interests.

 

Striking back is much easier than it once was. Putin’s decision to launch an all-out invasion 29 months ago has seen the creation of secret armies inside Russian territory. This provides a useful lever, which can be ratcheted up in direct response to Russia’s escalating terrorism abroad. The alliance collectively, or through various national intelligence agencies, can provide increased support to third parties already conducting sabotage and other activities inside Russia.

 

Russian freedom fighters and Ukrainian intelligence services are already causing ample damage to Russian petrochemical infrastructure, defense industries, and the Russian elite all on their own. The provision of detailed intelligence, training, and material support to such groups by the West, combined with backchannel messaging to the Kremlin that such activities are a direct response to Russia’s own sabotage and assassination campaigns, should prove influential in changing Putin’s calculus.

 

In other words, this does not have to be an all-out campaign against Russia. A low-level start would allow the Kremlin to review its campaign of aggression against the West and reconsider. In the meantime, there are numerous additional steps for the West to take to strengthen its response. Revising and renewing existing intelligence-sharing is crucial. There already exists an Intelligence Liaison Unit within NATO headquarters to share intelligence on terrorists; its adaptation would improve understanding of Russian hybrid threats.

 

Intelligence-sharing agreements must be updated to reflect the evolving nature of the threat, ensuring that all agencies and nations have access to timely and actionable intelligence to dismantle Russian malign networks. This will enable better coordination and more effective responses to hybrid threats. Strengthening multinational collaboration and collective action against Russian terrorism is also vital.

 

Drawing inspiration from the successes of Operation Gallant Phoenix, through which the international community came together to destroy the caliphate of the Islamic State in Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS), while severely degrading its regional affiliates, NATO should establish a dedicated multinational task force focused on countering Russian hybrid threats and destroying the Kremlin’s networks around the world.

 

This task force should include representatives from intelligence agencies, law enforcement, and the military, facilitating a comprehensive and coordinated approach to hybrid warfare. By treating Russian malign actors like the terrorists that they are, a dedicated task force employing the full range of available intelligence, law enforcement, and security authorities will leave no safe havens from which the Kremlin’s minions can operate with any degree of safety.

 

It is imperative to enhance cybersecurity measures, given the centrality of such attacks in Russia’s strategy, as seen in June’s attack on the UK’s National Health Service. Investing in robust cybersecurity not only protects critical infrastructure but also develops offensive capabilities to deter and respond to cyber threats. This also opens the path for Western cyber-attacks against vulnerable Russian networks. This does not have to be done with the same nihilistic approach as our enemies, but it is now necessary. This too might benefit from cooperation with our Ukrainian allies, who have experience in this area. At the same time, Western messaging toward Russian populations must directly paint any attacks against Moscow’s systems as retribution for the Kremlin’s cyber misdeeds abroad.

 

Ultimately, the transatlantic alliance should also more robustly support pro-democracy movements inside Russia, as there is nothing that Putin and his cronies fear more than a Russian populace no longer willing to endure a system in which the Kremlin harasses, exiles, imprisons, and murders Putin’s political rivals. The West must recognize that a more aggressive campaign to directly counter Russian malign activities is necessary to reestablish deterrence and proportionally punish the Kremlin for its brazen acts of terrorism.

 

By adopting a comprehensive and coordinated approach, the West can better safeguard its interests and uphold the principles of democracy and the rule of law. Previous multinational approaches, such as Operation Gallant Phoenix’s success against ISIS, demonstrate that with the right strategies and robust cooperation, it is possible to successfully counter even the most complex and multifaceted hybrid threats. Doug Livermore is the President of Livermore Strategic Solutions Ltd. and the Deputy Commander for Special Operations Detachment – Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard.

 

In addition to his role as the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, he is the National Director of External Communications for the Special Forces Association, National Vice President for the Special Operations Association of America, Director of Development of the Corioli Institute, and serves as Chair of the Advisory Committee for No One Left Behind.

 

Credit: CEPA  2024-07-31

 

 

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[Tug]

Wish I had a safe answer but seems to me is fight fire with fire continue to support Ukraine and collect intelligence.We might be able to arrest some Russians to use as chips just like Putin does.

[RuamRudy]

While Putin has no qualms about showboating some of his deeds abroad, I can't imagine that the West is any less engaged in undercover operations - I just think that they are much more discreet about it. 

 

Of course, that a military bigwig is advocating for more robust action isn't surprising nor is it necessarily a bad thing, but I am sceptical as to whether we are really so behind the curve. 

[watchdog2]

neocon nonsense from "social media."    wake up!

[ignore it]

Huh?

 

As they are running out of tanks and APC's and are now using

chinese golf carts and motorcycles and fuel shortages are impacting Russia

war efforts.

 

They are going to start using Toyota Prius? 

[thaibeachlovers]

Aw shucks, lets stop pussyfooting about and send the troops into Russia, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, China, Afghanistan, Yemen, and anyone else we can think of. After all, what could possibly go wrong with that?

The west, saving civilization one dead commie at a time.

Yeah.

[newbee2022]

13 hours ago, Social Media said:

 

For too long, the West has tolerated the increasing wave of Russian hybrid attacks on its people, infrastructure, and way of life. It's time to consider much tougher responses. Russian assassinations, explosions, attempts to undermine the transatlantic alliance's democratic system, and other forms of escalating malfeasance have been rampant for years. Recently, this has worsened to include Kremlin-directed sabotage against critical energy infrastructure, defense industries, and other entities supporting Ukraine’s right to self-defense across NATO countries.

 

Assassination plots against leading defense industry executives have led the US to warn against Russia’s “intensifying campaign of subversion.” Despite this, the Western response has been muted and largely passive. Benjamin Schmitt of the Center for European Policy Analysis highlighted this when he asked the Danish prime minister about it in July. She acknowledged that “we are simply being too polite,” but gave no clear response on how the alliance should more appropriately respond.

 

What can the West do? Clearly, it can continue to pursue a low-key response, using counter-intelligence to warn those targeted by the Russians and to stop plots developing, though this clearly does not always prevent the Kremlin from successfully executing attacks across Europe. There are also more robust alternatives. A more aggressive strategy would seek to punish, defeat, and reestablish effective deterrence with the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin is a mobster, and Western thinking should acknowledge this.

 

In the American masterpiece "The Untouchables," the grizzled Chicago beat cop Jim Malone warns Elliot Ness that he can only defeat the gangster Al Capone by achieving escalation dominance. Malone advises Ness that if: “He [Capone] pulls a knife, you pull a gun, he sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue.” Only by making clear that Western patience has been exhausted will the West finally safeguard its interests.

 

Striking back is much easier than it once was. Putin’s decision to launch an all-out invasion 29 months ago has seen the creation of secret armies inside Russian territory. This provides a useful lever, which can be ratcheted up in direct response to Russia’s escalating terrorism abroad. The alliance collectively, or through various national intelligence agencies, can provide increased support to third parties already conducting sabotage and other activities inside Russia.

 

Russian freedom fighters and Ukrainian intelligence services are already causing ample damage to Russian petrochemical infrastructure, defense industries, and the Russian elite all on their own. The provision of detailed intelligence, training, and material support to such groups by the West, combined with backchannel messaging to the Kremlin that such activities are a direct response to Russia’s own sabotage and assassination campaigns, should prove influential in changing Putin’s calculus.

 

In other words, this does not have to be an all-out campaign against Russia. A low-level start would allow the Kremlin to review its campaign of aggression against the West and reconsider. In the meantime, there are numerous additional steps for the West to take to strengthen its response. Revising and renewing existing intelligence-sharing is crucial. There already exists an Intelligence Liaison Unit within NATO headquarters to share intelligence on terrorists; its adaptation would improve understanding of Russian hybrid threats.

 

Intelligence-sharing agreements must be updated to reflect the evolving nature of the threat, ensuring that all agencies and nations have access to timely and actionable intelligence to dismantle Russian malign networks. This will enable better coordination and more effective responses to hybrid threats. Strengthening multinational collaboration and collective action against Russian terrorism is also vital.

 

Drawing inspiration from the successes of Operation Gallant Phoenix, through which the international community came together to destroy the caliphate of the Islamic State in Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS), while severely degrading its regional affiliates, NATO should establish a dedicated multinational task force focused on countering Russian hybrid threats and destroying the Kremlin’s networks around the world.

 

This task force should include representatives from intelligence agencies, law enforcement, and the military, facilitating a comprehensive and coordinated approach to hybrid warfare. By treating Russian malign actors like the terrorists that they are, a dedicated task force employing the full range of available intelligence, law enforcement, and security authorities will leave no safe havens from which the Kremlin’s minions can operate with any degree of safety.

 

It is imperative to enhance cybersecurity measures, given the centrality of such attacks in Russia’s strategy, as seen in June’s attack on the UK’s National Health Service. Investing in robust cybersecurity not only protects critical infrastructure but also develops offensive capabilities to deter and respond to cyber threats. This also opens the path for Western cyber-attacks against vulnerable Russian networks. This does not have to be done with the same nihilistic approach as our enemies, but it is now necessary. This too might benefit from cooperation with our Ukrainian allies, who have experience in this area. At the same time, Western messaging toward Russian populations must directly paint any attacks against Moscow’s systems as retribution for the Kremlin’s cyber misdeeds abroad.

 

Ultimately, the transatlantic alliance should also more robustly support pro-democracy movements inside Russia, as there is nothing that Putin and his cronies fear more than a Russian populace no longer willing to endure a system in which the Kremlin harasses, exiles, imprisons, and murders Putin’s political rivals. The West must recognize that a more aggressive campaign to directly counter Russian malign activities is necessary to reestablish deterrence and proportionally punish the Kremlin for its brazen acts of terrorism.

 

By adopting a comprehensive and coordinated approach, the West can better safeguard its interests and uphold the principles of democracy and the rule of law. Previous multinational approaches, such as Operation Gallant Phoenix’s success against ISIS, demonstrate that with the right strategies and robust cooperation, it is possible to successfully counter even the most complex and multifaceted hybrid threats. Doug Livermore is the President of Livermore Strategic Solutions Ltd. and the Deputy Commander for Special Operations Detachment – Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard.

 

In addition to his role as the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, he is the National Director of External Communications for the Special Forces Association, National Vice President for the Special Operations Association of America, Director of Development of the Corioli Institute, and serves as Chair of the Advisory Committee for No One Left Behind.

 

Credit: CEPA  2024-07-31

 

 

Get our Daily Newsletter - Click HERE to subscribe

 

Cigna offers a variety of health insurance plans designed to meet the minimum requirement for medical treatment coverage, with benefits reaching up to THB 3 million. These plans are tailored to provide comprehensive healthcare solutions for expatriates, ensuring peace of mind and access to quality medical services. To explore the full range of Cigna's expat health insurance options and find a plan that suits your needs, click here for more information.

If you follow the narrative of being in war with Russia subsequently you have to agree with this article.

However, if you live in peace with Russia obviously there would be no war, just be reliable.

If you break agreements and treaties the West shouldn't be too surprised when Russia act as an opponent or enemy. The West made Russia an enemy. Same to China.

[wombat]

A stronger response?

JFC...the west keeps prodding the bear.

The bear is only going to be prodded so far before it drops a nuke and then the west can throw its hands up in horror saying it wasn't us it wasn't us....NATO is like glass...I can see through it.

[Irish star]

49 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

If you follow the narrative of being in war with Russia subsequently you have to agree with this article.

However, if you live in peace with Russia obviously there would be no war, just be reliable.

If you break agreements and treaties the West shouldn't be too surprised when Russia act as an opponent or enemy. The West made Russia an enemy. Same to China.

Putin Lover , Believe that Crap , Nazis in Ukraine lol get back on Qanon or RT lol

[Irish star]

1 minute ago, wombat said:

A stronger response?

JFC...the west keeps prodding the bear.

The bear is only going to be prodded so far before it drops a nuke and then the west can throw its hands up in horror saying it wasn't us it wasn't us....NATO is like glass...I can see through it.

We are Prodding lol , Invaders Must Die , Putiny Supporters lol

[newbee2022]

2 minutes ago, Irish star said:

Putin Lover , Believe that Crap , Nazis in Ukraine lol get back on Qanon or RT lol

Kind of a hate speech already. 

[Irish star]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Aw shucks, lets stop pussyfooting about and send the troops into Russia, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, China, Afghanistan, Yemen, and anyone else we can think of. After all, what could possibly go wrong with that?

The west, saving civilization one dead commie at a time.

Yeah.

No mention of Trump ffs , Wow you feeling Defeat already…”Make Russia Great Again” , I heard they re doing Trade - ins on your “Red Bonnet “ New Slogan 

[Irish star]

1 minute ago, newbee2022 said:

Change your dope, laddie

You and Donnie jr hanging out huh , Drug Expert , Lassie 

[metisdead]

Posts using derogatory and toxic nicknames or intentional misspelling of people’s names will be removed. If you don’t want your post to be removed, spell people’s names correctly, this applies to both sides of the political debate.

[connda]

The West can show Russia whose boss!  Just nuke Moscow and the entire world will no longer have any Geo-Political problems at all.  <BOOM>  All problems in the world solved for good.  It would be a fitting end to humanity, especially the West, which know nothing but the desire for endless war.  So dear Western war-mongers: "go show Putin who really runs the world."  Send him a nuke or two and that will take care of everything except for the Continuity of Governance "Morlocks" who happen to make it to their assigned bunkers before the conflagration hits.  Come on!  Most Westerners hate Russians, so they all should welcome a nuclear end to all of their troubles, 'eh? 

[sangtip2]

The west needs to stay out of this mess.   Ukraine was Russian before the 2014 coup - they can be Russian again.

[newbee2022]

23 minutes ago, Irish star said:

You and Donnie jr hanging out huh , Drug Expert , Lassie 

Not my level, sorry. 

[RayC]

1 hour ago, sangtip2 said:

The west needs to stay out of this mess.   Ukraine was Russian before the 2014 coup - they can be Russian again.

 

Err ... Ukraine became a sovereign state in 1991.

[transam]

1 hour ago, sangtip2 said:

The west needs to stay out of this mess.   Ukraine was Russian before the 2014 coup - they can be Russian again.

I thought I was going to get through the day without reading something really daft, you ruined it.......🤕

Please do a bit of Google research before you post again on this subject......🙄

[The Old Bull]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Aw shucks, lets stop pussyfooting about and send the troops into Russia, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Syria, China, Afghanistan, Yemen, and anyone else we can think of. After all, what could possibly go wrong with that?

The west, saving civilization one dead commie at a time.

Yeah.

Didn't do to good in Vietnam and Afghanistan. If the people don't want you there you will not win . Take all your guns and bombs and go home. The Russians went home years ago . WWII has been over eighty years and the US still has not left Germany and Japan so who are the real war mongers.

[sangtip2]

13 hours ago, RayC said:

 

Err ... Ukraine became a sovereign state in 1991.

A  sovereign state controlled by Russia

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, connda said:

"Morlocks"

Wonder how many will get the reference? That was a great movie. I loved Rod Taylor movies.

 

Yes I know it was a book too, but I never read it.

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, connda said:

Send him a nuke or two and that will take care of everything except for the Continuity of Governance "Morlocks" who happen to make it to their assigned bunkers before the conflagration hits.

and for any that do, I wish the fate of "Level 7" on them. Now there's a reference that few will get.

[Irish star]

15 hours ago, The Old Bull said:

Didn't do to good in Vietnam and Afghanistan. If the people don't want you there you will not win . Take all your guns and bombs and go home. The Russians went home years ago . WWII has been over eighty years and the US still has not left Germany and Japan so who are the real war mongers.

lol They want us there , they need our Arms and protection from China and Russia, ffs 

[Irish star]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

and for any that do, I wish the fate of "Level 7" on them. Now there's a reference that few will get.

Qanon Handbook , Only Trumpers read that stuff , We are more “Level Headed “ explain why your a fanboy for 2025,  47 , Level whatever 555 

[Irish star]

1 minute ago, Irish star said:

Qanon Handbook , Only Trumpers read that stuff , We are more “Level Headed “ explain why your a fanboy for 2025,  47 , Level whatever 555 

Level 7 is a Bachelors degree lol 

 

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Wonder how many will get the reference? That was a great movie. I loved Rod Taylor movies.

 

Yes I know it was a book too, but I never read it.

Wow your a Boomer for Trump , should of known , Rod Taylor Movies , who remembered those lol , you Trip  over any dinosaur Tails 

[Fortean1]

Rod Taylor in The Time Machine is a favorite of mine.  Please see: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0054387/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_6_tt_7_nm_1_in_0_q_time%20machine I believe his last movie was Inglorious Basterds, role as Winston Churchill.  Elois munching on fruit and veggies, and Morlocks munching on Elois.  The remakes appeal to new generations I suppose.  You know the U.S. and its Allies used tactical nukes at the end of war games as the Soviet tank armies came through the Ruhr and Po valleys.

[Cameroni]

This article is terribly flawed, it claims Russia has waged an aggressive campaign against the West. In fact all Putin did was claim a part of Ukraine in reponse to a Western campaign to incorporate East European countries into Nato, in direct contravention of promises and "iron clad guarantees" that were given to Russia that this would not happen.

 

Russia is not waging any campaign against the West, it doesn't even want all of Ukraine, or Poland or any of the other nonsense that's constantly thrown out by way of misinformtion.

 

In the final analysis Russia has alreay won this war againt Ukrain anyway. Even if conventional weapons would fail Russia could unleash nuclear weapons on Ukraine, but the US and the West could never retaliate because they would risk nuclear annihilation. So this idea hat you should pour more oil into the fire to win a war that can't ever be won anyway, is pure stupidity.

[JonnyF]

The West is weak. A laughing stock.

 

Too preoccupied with pronouns and DEI. The likes of Russia and China would destroy us while we were still calculating what % of our military was non binary.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

The West is weak. A laughing stock.

 

Too preoccupied with pronouns and DEI. The likes of Russia and China would destroy us while we were still calculating what % of our military was non binary.

 

 

Definitely an unhealthy fixation.