Kremlin Gets what it wants Calculated Hostage Strategy

[Social Media]

 

Russia and its close ally Belarus have successfully negotiated a significant prisoner exchange with the United States and Germany. This deal has resulted in the release of several high-profile detainees, including Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, retired U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, and the Russian-British journalist and Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza. Additionally, some Russian dissidents, allies of the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, were freed and allowed to leave Russia. While the release of these individuals is undoubtedly good news, the stark reality remains that Russia has effectively engaged in hostage-taking, leveraging the lives of innocent people for strategic gains.

 

This exchange marks one of the largest of its kind since the Cold War, during which the United States and the Soviet Union typically traded spies quietly and in small numbers. Notably, one of the largest Cold War exchanges occurred in 1985, when 25 East German political prisoners were traded for three Soviet spies and one Polish agent. In the post-Cold War era, a significant exchange involved ten deep-cover Russian spies arrested by the FBI in 2010, who were traded for four prisoners from Russia. The scale of the current exchange raises questions about why the Russians have chosen to act now and release such a large number of prisoners.

 

The underlying reason for this exchange appears to be that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his advisors believe the timing and the balance of assets are finally in their favor. They have strategically arrested individuals on minor or fabricated charges, using them as bargaining chips until the West offered enough in return to make the deal worthwhile for Moscow. An earlier attempt to negotiate the release of WNBA star Brittney Griner, as reported by CNN, failed because the United States alone could not offer a prisoner held in Germany. This time, however, the Russians included a German citizen, arrested for possession of cannabis gummies, alongside more prominent detainees, tipping the scales in their favor.

 

Prisoner swaps serve multiple purposes for Russia, regardless of the timing. Firstly, they create a false equivalence between the West and Russia in the public eye. By framing these exchanges as "prisoner swaps," the media inadvertently suggest a level of parity: both sides have prisoners and make deals. This obscures the fact that while the West holds Russian murderers and spies, Russia detains Western journalists and ordinary citizens. Secondly, and more critically, these swaps send a clear message to those doing the Kremlin's bidding overseas: Putin will not abandon them. Unlike the disavowal of agents depicted in American media like "Mission: Impossible," Putin reassures his operatives that he will go to great lengths to bring them home if they are caught.

 

Despite the grim motivations behind these deals, democracies are compelled to engage in them to protect their citizens. The lives of innocent individuals matter, and efforts to bring them back to their families are paramount. However, each successful deal reinforces Putin's assurance to his agents and hitmen that their crimes will not go unpunished, as he will always work to secure their release.

 

Negotiating these deals is a lengthy process, taking weeks, months, or even years. Consequently, it is unwise to link this deal too closely to American politics. The Kremlin operates on its own timeline, independent of U.S. electoral cycles, and is indifferent to whether the deal benefits President Joe Biden or undermines former President Donald Trump's claims of unique efficacy in securing releases. To the Kremlin, such considerations are mere background noise. The timing of the deal likely coincides with a strategic decision to act when the terms were most favorable, rather than waiting for a new administration.

 

While the release of Gershkovich, Whelan, Kara-Murza, and others is cause for celebration among Americans and their European allies, it is crucial to recognize that the Kremlin has achieved its goals. This exchange serves as a reminder to Westerners that setting foot in Russia could result in becoming the next bargaining chip for future deals.

 

As part of this exchange, the Russians are set to receive a mix of criminals, including Vadim Krasikov, a colonel in the Russian intelligence services sentenced to life in a German prison for executing a Kremlin-ordered hit on a dissident in Berlin. Moscow's demands also reportedly include a Russian money launderer in an American prison and two Russian spies apprehended in Slovenia. This strategic maneuvering by the Kremlin underscores the ongoing geopolitical chess game, where human lives are regrettably used as pawns to achieve broader political objectives.

 

Credit: The Atlantic  2024-08-03

 

 

Get our Daily Newsletter - Click HERE to subscribe

 

Cigna offers a variety of health insurance plans designed to meet the minimum requirement for medical treatment coverage, with benefits reaching up to THB 3 million. These plans are tailored to provide comprehensive healthcare solutions for expatriates, ensuring peace of mind and access to quality medical services. To explore the full range of Cigna's expat health insurance options and find a plan that suits your needs, click here for more information.

[Tug]

Unfortunately this hostage taking for ransom (monitory or for other recompense) is as old as time we as a decent country are vulnerable no doubt about it.Imo it would be interesting to do a study of how this has been handled over the centuries to see what worked in the past.It definitely sucks but that being said I’m glad we got ours back!

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, Social Media said:

Russia and its close ally Belarus have successfully negotiated a significant prisoner exchange with the United States and Germany.

Trump is upset with Biden's successful hostage negotiations. Trump has said as a campaign issue only he (Trump) can work with Putin for a hostage resolution, yet Biden carried the day. And that success will carryover to the Harris POTUS campaign.

Note that 'negotiations' is a "Give and "Take" process. And I don't mean "I Take and You Give."

And as seems tradition with MAGA, when you lose you have to justify with falsehoods and conspiracies.

[Cryingdick]

We should have just summarily executed every prisoner Russia asked for. We play by rules they do not. We will never win this way. Also if you go to Russia now you should be on your own. Thats the case anywhere else. I don't see the embassy doing much for people that get railroaded in Thailand.

[Pique Dard]

3 hours ago, Social Media said:

While the release of these individuals is undoubtedly good news, the stark reality remains that Russia has effectively engaged in hostage-taking, leveraging the lives of innocent people for strategic gains.

 

Yes, that's right, and it goes without saying, because the United States would never do that, and never has done that, has it!

[stoner]

2 minutes ago, Pique Dard said:

Yes, that's right, and it goes without saying, because the United States would never do that, and never has done that, has it!

 

hold my waterboard for a minute please. 

[nobodysfriend]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

the stark reality remains that Russia has effectively engaged in hostage-taking, leveraging the lives of innocent people for strategic gains.

 

Welcome to Russia .

Such a beautiful country with so many things to see ...

 

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

Putin and his advisors believe the timing and the balance of assets are finally in their favor. They have strategically arrested individuals on minor or fabricated charges, using them as bargaining chips until the West offered enough in return to make the deal worthwhile for Moscow.

 

Russia's government will soon offer state sponsored sight seeing tours at bargain prices to western tourists .

[nobodysfriend]

1 hour ago, Cryingdick said:

We should have just summarily executed every prisoner Russia asked for.

 

I think the families of the freed hostages won't agree to this view .

[spidermike007]

It has to be assumed that in most negotiations with Russia we are going to get out played, as they play with bad intentions, their game is a heinous one, and lives mean nothing to them. When negotiating against an amoral entity, you are always going to be at a disadvantage. It would be even moreso with Trump, as he is obviously compromised and Putin has his ace cards.