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The Biden administration is taking advantage of the current Israeli offensive against Hezbollah to push for a new Lebanese president, hoping to curb the militant group’s long-standing political dominance. According to U.S. and Arab officials, this move marks an opportunity to address Lebanon’s political stalemate, which has left the country without a president since Michel Aoun’s term ended in 2022.

 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reached out to leaders in Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, urging their support for electing a new Lebanese president. The push is part of a broader U.S. initiative to weaken Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon, a group that has entrenched itself not only as a militant organization but also as a powerful political party. Amos Hochstein, a senior White House official, has emphasized to Arab officials that the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah provide a chance to potentially resolve Lebanon's political deadlock.

 

“We want to see Lebanon break the grip that Hezbollah has had on the country—more than a grip, break the stranglehold that Hezbollah has had on the country and remove Hezbollah veto over a president,” State Department spokesman Matt Miller said.

 

The U.S. effort to sideline Hezbollah comes after years of frustration over Lebanon's ineffective government, where political reforms have been stymied by entrenched elites. Lebanon’s power-sharing system, established during the French occupation after World War I, divides power among its major religious groups—Sunni Muslims, Shia Muslims, Christians, and Druze. Despite previous U.S.-backed efforts, the country's fractured political landscape has hindered meaningful change.

 

Saudi Arabia, which historically played a significant role in Lebanon’s political and economic affairs, has backed the U.S. initiative. The plan’s success, however, depends on key Lebanese figures, including Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Both have voiced support for electing a new president but remain closely tied to Hezbollah, especially in the context of cease-fire negotiations.

 

While the U.S. sees a new president as essential to forming a stable and empowered government, Hezbollah’s leadership opposes any political shift amid ongoing conflict. Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, rejected calls for a political rearrangement while the war with Israel continues.

 

Electing a new president is a complex process in Lebanon, where the president is chosen by a 128-member parliament. Without Hezbollah’s support, it remains unclear how political factions can unite to elect a leader. Several Arab nations, including Egypt and Qatar, have expressed skepticism about the U.S. approach. They argue that attempting to sideline Hezbollah, particularly during a time of crisis, could reignite sectarian violence in a country still scarred by its civil war, which ended in 1990.

 

Egypt, in particular, has voiced concern that intervening in Lebanon’s political affairs now could lead to the kind of internecine fighting that devastated the country during the civil war. Lebanese political analysts warn that any leader seen as rising to power due to Israeli and U.S. actions risks being discredited. Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and Algeria, noted, “The more a new Lebanese president is seen to have come to office on the coattails of Israeli military actions with American support, the more discredited I think he will be among many Lebanese.”

 

The absence of a president has worsened Lebanon's economic crisis, which the World Bank describes as one of the worst globally in the past 150 years. Since 2019, Lebanon's currency has plummeted by 97% against the U.S. dollar, leaving public sector salaries nearly worthless and hollowing out government institutions. Parliament hasn’t convened since May, and the caretaker government has been unable to address the country’s economic collapse, which has plunged millions into poverty. In the midst of the current war, Lebanon remains in a political and economic vacuum, with Hezbollah maintaining greater strength than the national army despite limited U.S. military aid.

 

Based on a report from WSJ 2024-10-12