The '50-50 Race' Pre-Election Polls Were Phony

[Wrwest]

24 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Which appointments do you think have unimpressive qualifications, and why? 

While I do not agree with Rubio on much, I cannot oppose his appointment as he has the needed background. As to Healthcare appointments? Lack of qualifications and sadly into conspiracy theories, in addition to the foolish anti-vaccine stance. While I allow that, in hindsight, we might have taken some different steps on the inconsistency of isolating ... we were dealing with a new virus pandemic. I would add, more drastic steps taken in light of the Trump caused unnecessary deaths. As far as vaccines in general? DPT baby shots ... polio, smallpox, etc. science based benefits. The majority of voters supported Trump and the Project 2025 aims. Have at it ... and the benefits or total responsibility for the results. Sorry, I don't want to spin my wheels on Gabbert, inexperience in Defense (administrative not military service). Trump clearly stated he wants to disrupt ... appointing many of these folks will certainly do the trick. Let's see what the Republican Senators will do with these nominees and any stated reasoning.

[Wrwest]

On 11/27/2024 at 7:44 PM, dinsdale said:

End of the day he got more votes than her and won all that was on offer. The Electoral College Vote, The Popular Vote, all the swing states, control of the Senate and control of the House. The people voted against Harris and the Democrats and voted for change. The people as the saying goes have spoken. 

Absolutely agree. And now they have total responsibility for the results. Popcorn is ready ... watching from halfway around the globe ...

[Wrwest]

On 11/27/2024 at 8:05 PM, Cryingdick said:

 

Largely because what the dems didn't realize is that even though Trump is disliked by a lot of people, the only people more universally despised were the dems. They are like that team you always hope gets obliterated because you hate their fans so much. The team itself you really don't fault, but the supporters are so arrogant, nasty, hate filled and nauseating you just can't wish any part of the organization success ever.

 

I think most the lefties living outside the USA are completely unaware of how many people loathe them.

 

 

I'm thinking ... it is the friend/lover in whom we put your belief/trust which causes the stronger reaction of disappointment/heartbreak (rather than those we know who oppose us openly). Absolutely, the Democrats received the brunt of the built-up justified frustration/anger from the working middle class. I would observe, however, that the traditional Republican Party has also been rejected out of the same emotion. Thus, the majority are following Trump who has given voice to the frustration/anger. OK, now Trump and his Project 2025 ilk are in government. All bthree branches of government are in their control (yikes! cold shiver down my back) ... let's see what they do to address that built-up frustration/anger within the working middle class ...

[MadAtMatrix]

 

 

A billion dollars BLOWN. I guess Kamala is used to blowing things....

[Luuk Chaai]

On 11/27/2024 at 7:38 PM, dinsdale said:

What's glaringly missing from this article is the fact that she was an absolutely useless, cackling idiot, inarticulate, non question answering candidate that focused on Trump, had the MSM pushing the progressive left rhetoric for her, only did softball interviews and surrounded herself with rss licking celebrities. 

Nailed it !

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, Wrwest said:

I'm thinking ... it is the friend/lover in whom we put your belief/trust which causes the stronger reaction of disappointment/heartbreak (rather than those we know who oppose us openly). Absolutely, the Democrats received the brunt of the built-up justified frustration/anger from the working middle class. I would observe, however, that the traditional Republican Party has also been rejected out of the same emotion. Thus, the majority are following Trump who has given voice to the frustration/anger. OK, now Trump and his Project 2025 ilk are in government. All bthree branches of government are in their control (yikes! cold shiver down my back) ... let's see what they do to address that built-up frustration/anger within the working middle class ...

What would you like them to do?

[WDSmart]

Why would you call a prediction of a 50:50 race "phony" when the election turned out to be about 49.9% to 48.3%? US presidential election results 2024: Harris vs. Trump | Live maps, charts and the latest vote count

[MRMOUSE]

4 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

If the electoral college were eliminated, candidates would only campaign in large urban areas, and the only concern would be for issues that affect them.

It's a national election no local issues

[RocketDog]

On 11/27/2024 at 7:44 PM, dinsdale said:

End of the day he got more votes than her and won all that was on offer. The Electoral College Vote, The Popular Vote, all the swing states, control of the Senate and control of the House. The people voted against Harris and the Democrats and voted for change. The people as the saying goes have spoken. 

And people who voted for harris didn't speak?

Half liked Trump and half didn't.

Thems the facts.

[Wrwest]

19 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

What would you like them to do?

what I would like matters not, they will do what they will do ... a waste of my life's remaining time to make a wish list.

[Yellowtail]

6 hours ago, Wrwest said:

what I would like matters not, they will do what they will do ... a waste of my life's remaining time to make a wish list.

That's pretty sad.

[john donson]

who voted for her, really? cannot finish a sentence without a script in advance

 

woke people? letter soup alphabet?  illegals?

[morrobay]

19 hours ago, john donson said:

who voted for her, really? cannot finish a sentence without a script in advance

 

woke people? letter soup alphabet?  illegals?

+ SAPS.  The polls missed alot of Trump supporters: Especially group1.in

[Yellowtail]

Polls typically use small sample sizes, which is only accurate if the samples are truly random, which they almost never are. 

 

 

[SiSePuede419]

USA

2024 Election 

Harris 74,441,608 votes (48.4%)
Trump 76,917,139 votes (50%)

 

Do you know what "round up" means?

48.4 --> 49%

 

Do you know what "approximately" means?

 

49% = ~50%

 

Do you know what "50/50' means?

 

What a dumbass thing to say.

 

Harris didn't win the MAJORITY of votes.

And neither did Trump. 

 

51+% would be the majority of voters

 

Your landslide wasn't.  Trump was so weak he couldn't even win the MAJORITY of voters.

 

What a LOSER. 😄

Edited Monday at 12:46 PM by SiSePuede419

[EveryG]

  

On 11/29/2024 at 9:32 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

So spot that the one they had in the lead lost? In fact, on the day there was never any real chance she was going to win.

Are you claiming that all the ones that were going to vote Harris changed their minds while at the voting booth?

I don't think you understand statistics and probabilities at even the most elementary level 

 

Dude, get a little bit of education before commenting and making yourself look foolish. 

  

On 11/29/2024 at 2:51 PM, WDSmart said:

Why would you call a prediction of a 50:50 race "phony" when the election turned out to be about 49.9% to 48.3%? US presidential election results 2024: Harris vs. Trump | Live maps, charts and the latest vote count

Literally no poll predicted she was going to win....in fact, every poll I saw was well within the margin of error, meaning no single poll was predicting that the person "leading" was actually leading. 

[Yellowtail]

7 minutes ago, EveryG said:

  

I don't think you understand statistics and probabilities at even the most elementary level 

 

Dude, get a little bit of education before commenting and making yourself look foolish. 

  

Literally no poll predicted she was going to win....in fact, every poll I saw was well within the margin of error, meaning no single poll was predicting that the person "leading" was actually leading. 

David Anderman's poll had her winning 

[Yellowtail]

11 minutes ago, EveryG said:

  

I don't think you understand statistics and probabilities at even the most elementary level 

 

Dude, get a little bit of education before commenting and making yourself look foolish. 

  

Literally no poll predicted she was going to win....in fact, every poll I saw was well within the margin of error, meaning no single poll was predicting that the person "leading" was actually leading. 

Here's another that had Harris winning by 4%:

 

Harris has 4-point lead over Trump in final PBS News/NPR/Marist election poll | PBS News

[EveryG]

23 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Here's another that had Harris winning by 4%:

 

Harris has 4-point lead over Trump in final PBS News/NPR/Marist election poll | PBS News

With a 3.5% margin of error... This is not considered "having her winning" when the margin of error goes both ways. Again...you people need to learn how statistics work....

 

This poll "predicts" that the outcome of the race could swing 3.5% for either candidate in either direction...I'm not even going to go into the bell curve on those outcomes as they deviate away from the poll as reported since most of you can't even grasp the basics 

 

In this poll, Trump could be as high as 50.5 and Harris as low as 47.5 in this poll. And what was the final result? Well within this poll's margin of error.

 

Quote

How to Read Political Polls Like a Pro

No poll is predictive. Every single one of them is a measure of a specific window inside a specific space. No one wins—or loses—based on the polls, and it’s often irresponsible to say that someone is winning in the polls. 

https://time.com/7012220/how-read-political-polls-like-a-pro/

 

Edited yesterday at 02:38 AM by EveryG

[Yellowtail]

38 minutes ago, EveryG said:

With a 3.5% margin of error... This is not considered "having her winning" when the margin of error goes both ways. Again...you people need to learn how statistics work....

 

This poll "predicts" that the outcome of the race could swing 3.5% for either candidate in either direction...I'm not even going to go into the bell curve on those outcomes as they deviate away from the poll as reported since most of you can't even grasp the basics 

 

In this poll, Trump could be as high as 50.5 and Harris as low as 47.5 in this poll. And what was the final result? Well within this poll's margin of error.

 

 

Would you please provide a quote from your link that supports your claim? 

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

14 hours ago, SiSePuede419 said:

USA

2024 Election 

Harris 74,441,608 votes (48.4%)
Trump 76,917,139 votes (50%)

 

Do you know what "round up" means?

48.4 --> 49%

 

Do you know what "approximately" means?

 

49% = ~50%

 

Do you know what "50/50' means?

 

What a dumbass thing to say.

 

Harris didn't win the MAJORITY of votes.

And neither did Trump. 

 

51+% would be the majority of voters

 

Your landslide wasn't.  Trump was so weak he couldn't even win the MAJORITY of voters.

 

What a LOSER. 😄

Harris was so weak she didn't even win the EC.

 

What a LOSER.

[pedro01]

On 11/29/2024 at 2:51 PM, WDSmart said:

Why would you call a prediction of a 50:50 race "phony" when the election turned out to be about 49.9% to 48.3%? US presidential election results 2024: Harris vs. Trump | Live maps, charts and the latest vote count

 

Because the Dems internal polling showed them the huge loss they'd suffer - not a single county flipped red to blue.

 

They used fake polling to fundraise - never telling donors they were set to lose.

 

That's dishonest at best, fraud likely 

Edited yesterday at 03:12 AM by pedro01

[EveryG]

15 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Would you please provide a quote from your link that supports your claim? 

 

 

Do I have to read for you too? Jesus, you people are amazing! LOL. 

 

The information is there under the margin of error. It's too long to quote because that would be against forum rules, which means it's probably too long for you to handle. 

 

Some people are way beyond educating out of their ignorance. 

[Yellowtail]

34 minutes ago, EveryG said:

Do I have to read for you too? Jesus, you people are amazing! LOL. 

 

The information is there under the margin of error. It's too long to quote because that would be against forum rules, which means it's probably too long for you to handle. 

 

Some people are way beyond educating out of their ignorance. 

I knew you couldn't. Typical.

[EveryG]

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I knew you couldn't. Typical.

Since I know you are incapable of reading, let's see if you can follow how statistics work"

Quote

A New York Times/ Siena poll released on Aug. 10 indicated Harris ahead of Trump in Michigan by a 50-46 margin and while that sounds like Harris is leading, look closely at the margin of error, which was 4.8 points. That means Trump and Harris are actually statistically matched and Harris could actually be at 45.2% and Trump could be as high as 50.8%... A good rule of thumb: for someone to be leading in a poll, they need to cover twice the margin of error to be considered outside of the gray zone, meaning in the Michigan example, Harris would be leading if she was 10 points ahead of Trump.

Trump, because he is an incredibly stupid person, does not understand how polls work either. His follower are mostly not capable of comprehending math, let alone statistics, so when he says dumb things about "leading" in the polls, they just nod with mouths open. Some of them are so dumb, they need to be not just led to water, but they need help drinking 

[jippytum]

Yes and so was the mainstream coverage like CNN, BBC and others all biased and fake news. 

[Thingamabob]

The polls were fairly accurate. It was the left-wing summary/commentary on the polls which was ridiculously biased in favour of Harris.

[radiochaser]

On 11/28/2024 at 11:34 PM, Yellowtail said:

If the electoral college were eliminated, candidates would only campaign in large urban areas, and the only concern would be for issues that affect them.

I read a news article some time back, that Trudeau won the election in Canada, just from the votes in 3 cities.   The article suggested that if the popular vote was in the U.S. of A. then New York City and 2 or 3 other cities could elect a President.  

[radiochaser]

14 hours ago, EveryG said:

Since I know you are incapable of reading, let's see if you can follow how statistics work"

Trump, because he is an incredibly stupid person, does not understand how polls work either. His follower are mostly not capable of comprehending math, let alone statistics, so when he says dumb things about "leading" in the polls, they just nod with mouths open. Some of them are so dumb, they need to be not just led to water, but they need help drinking 

I have no doubt that the following copy and past, from just one of the thousands of emails  I have received from the democrats, is actually just a general broadcast to everyone on their email list, but I find such emails amusing.   That "just one of the thousands of emails I have received from the democrats" is not hyperbole.   

 

I have more than 10,000 emails from democrats archived and have not once, replied or donated to their cause, yet, they keep telling me I am one of their best, top, etc. supporters!

 

The idea I am expected to believe that, "you are one of Kamala's top supporters this year" is laughable.  And that they would tell me "before we share with the rest of the team"?   Who is it on the democrat team actually believes that I would believe this?  Would your comment, "Some of them are so dumb"  apply to whoever thought statements in their emails like this would be believable?

 

 

 

 

10/24/2024

 

(radiochaser), our records show that you are one of Kamala's top supporters this year. That’s why we want you to read this before we share with the rest of the team: FIRST: Nate Silver’s polls showed all seven of the battleground states within the margin of error -- and almost all of them trending towards Trump. THEN: Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, funneled $75 MILLION into a far-right super PAC to further tip the scales in Trump’s direction. NOW: Kamala is getting pummeled with attack ads in the key states we need to win this election. Unless grassroots supporters like you help her fight back, we could be in deep trouble.

Edited 14 hours ago by radiochaser

[riclag]

On 12/2/2024 at 7:43 PM, SiSePuede419 said:

USA

2024 Election 

Harris 74,441,608 votes (48.4%)
Trump 76,917,139 votes (50%)

 

Do you know what "round up" means?

48.4 --> 49%

 

Do you know what "approximately" means?

 

49% = ~50%

 

Do you know what "50/50' means?

 

What a dumbass thing to say.

 

Harris didn't win the MAJORITY of votes.

And neither did Trump. 

 

51+% would be the majority of voters

 

Your landslide wasn't.  Trump was so weak he couldn't even win the MAJORITY of voters.

 

What a LOSER. 😄

You lost !

Despite moving the goalposts, trying to take him off the ballot in Michigan and other states.

Last time it was whining about he didn’t win the popular vote !

 

He won all  7 Swing states, he shattered the woke blue wall of Wisconsin, Michigan and most importantly Pennsylvania .

 

Over 2300 out of   3100 counties Trump won!

Grassroots organizations get out the vote was huge!

Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point USA was visiting campuses in the battleground states with Vivek , big success.

Scott Presler helped  Trump win PA!

knocking on doors and registering voters , encouraging them to vote early.

https://nypost.com/2024/12/01/us-news/how-scott-presler-helped-trump-win-pennsylvania/

 

 

 

Its never enough with these legends of Beanie Baby past