Who is "doomed"?

[Lacessit]

6 hours ago, MicroB said:

 

Russian healthcare is crippled. Before Putin's War of Aggression, about 90% of medicines and 80% of medical equipment was imported. Firstly, healthcare is mostly not subject to sanction. The exception is certain dual use equipment blocked by the US State Department, which means replacement medical lasers.

 

But sanctions, and increased cost of shipping, means the availability of medicines has decreased.

 

Early on, Putin put a challenge to Russian industry to backfill the supply gaps. They have failed to do so.

 

On the one level, medicine inflation is quite modest; prices are up 4% in 2024. But Russian government healthcare procurement has declined. And the availability of medicines has fallen by about 10%. Before the war, most Russians used private medicine, mostly paid out of pocket. It was a growing industry, because State healthcare was so lousy (one of the memorable disasters of Russia's Pandemic, was when they decided to daisy chain ICU patients to save on ventilators. A leak incinerated the ward). When the war started, Putin prioritized the state for medical supplies. The private sector was all but dead.

 

The decline in the availability of medicines but only a modest inflationary impact means that there has been increased imports of cheap generics, probably from India and China, and a much narrower range.

 

Hospitals in the regions bordering Ukraine have been ordered to form combat brigades; essentiallt doctors and nurses are being co-opted as field medics, with a concomitant decline in the availability of medical services to citizens.

 

Headway, a Russian Analytics company, has noted the biggest cuts in the Federal budget are in purchase of medicines to treat severe illnesses. ie. mortality rates from cancer and heart disease, will tick up. There is a 20% decline in these medicines. DSM believes the healthcare budget has been stripped to pay for increased armament spending.

 

I recall that before the Aggression, Siemens had won the contract to overhaul the switchgear of the Russian Rail network. The network is still largely a decrepit Soviet era system. That work all stopped. Siemens won the contract because Russian companies were incapable of fulfilling the requirement.

 

Russian army reserves, and most of the armament factories, thanks to WW2, are in the Far East. The Rail Network is absolutely critical to the integrity of Russia.  It takes 6 days by train to get from Moscow to Vladivostok, and a brutal 118  hours to drive there. The road isn't mile up mile of shiney highway, but mostly potholed single lane, sometimes without a tarmac surface. In winter, the road is impassable. If the rail system fails, the Far East becomes cut off from Moscow. Obviously this affects the movements of goods and peoples, but it also affects the integrity of the Russian Federation.

 

Then headlines like this:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-trains-derailment-mystery-1925131

 

Its not the work of Ukrainian special forces. Its indicative of a rail network under pressure.

It's not only the train system under pressure.

 

Russia's domestic airline fleet is 70% Boeing and Airbus. Russia is not getting upgrades or spare parts from those companies.

 

It therefore has to cannibalize existing aircraft for spares to keep flying. Software is not upgraded.

 

It's only a matter of time before there is a major air disaster, which in true Russian tradition will be swept under the carpet.

[3NUMBAS]

Why haven Boeing scrambled their flight control system to put the planes out of action?  Considering they haven’t paid for the aircraft , a mystery  

[Will B Good]

I thought it was the Walmington-on- Sea that was doomed.

[swissie]

On 12/14/2024 at 2:14 PM, Lacessit said:

Food inflation in Russia is 10%. A lot of shoplifting of butter.

 

The ruble is at 104 to the USD. It hit 115, before the central bank froze foreign currency transactions on November 28. Before Ukraine, it was 60 to the USD.

 

Bank interest rates on deposits are 21%. The home mortgage interest is 26-28%. Homes are unaffordable for the average Russian.

 

The Russian demographic is collapsing. Men who would be siring children are either migrating to avoid  the Ukraine meat grinder,  or are being sent there. Recent fatalities are more than 1000 men a day.

 

Worldwide, there are 102 men to every 100 women, on average. In Russia, there are only 87 men per 100 women.

 

The Russian education system broke down in the mid-eighties. Most technicians and engineers from before that era are retiring.

 

I don't know about doomed, but those kind of facts would resonate with any economist.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for supplying those statistics. Amazing how readily available those "accurate" Russian statistics are to us in the West.

No such statistics concerning the Ukraine available in the "western press": Why not? Probably because those same statistics would show that the Ukraine is far worse off than Russia.

But, since the beginning of the war, the "western media" has subjected itself to "voluntary censorship", always in favor of the Ukrainian cause.

 

[swissie]

On 12/14/2024 at 12:04 AM, TedG said:

Crimea belongs to Ukraine.

In the late 1950ies, Nikita Chrustschov installed the Ukraine as a "administrative steward" concering the Crimea. He diden't make it part of the Ukraine in a political/geografical sense.

 

Before, the Crimea was part of the Tsaristic Empire since Katharina the great, after that part of USSR.

[swissie]

Possibly some final thoughts are in order:

If a country at war even has to import their AMMUNITION because they can not produce sufficient amounts in their own country, must serve as a wake-up call for every unbiased observer.

Quiz question: Wich country must import their Ammo? Russia or the Ukraine?

 

[Lacessit]

23 minutes ago, swissie said:

Thanks for supplying those statistics. Amazing how readily available those "accurate" Russian statistics are to us in the West.

No such statistics concerning the Ukraine available in the "western press": Why not? Probably because those same statistics would show that the Ukraine is far worse off than Russia.

But, since the beginning of the war, the "western media" has subjected itself to "voluntary censorship", always in favor of the Ukrainian cause.

 

The figures I have posted are from Russian sources. Apart from the male female ratio

 

There's no doubt Ukraine is taking a battering. The battle losses are censored by Ukraine's military command. The question is whether the Ukrainians are killing Russian invaders in a favorable ratio.

[Lacessit]

19 minutes ago, swissie said:

Possibly some final thoughts are in order:

If a country at war even has to import their AMMUNITION because they can not produce sufficient amounts in their own country, must serve as a wake-up call for every unbiased observer.

Quiz question: Wich country must import their Ammo? Russia or the Ukraine?

 

Both. Russia is importing artillery shells and small arms ammunition from North Korea.

 

It is also importing North Korean soldiers, which shows a certain desperation in the Kremlin to avoid drafting recruits from Moscow and St. Petersburg.

[Lacessit]

27 minutes ago, swissie said:

In the late 1950ies, Nikita Chrustschov installed the Ukraine as a "administrative steward" concering the Crimea. He diden't make it part of the Ukraine in a political/geografical sense.

 

Before, the Crimea was part of the Tsaristic Empire since Katharina the great, after that part of USSR.

India was part of the British empire, so what? Empires rise and fall.

 

Ukrainians hate Russians, with good reason. How would you like it if a neighboring country deliberately starved a quarter of your population to death, then immigrated its own population into your country, and decreed their language was only to be taught in your schools?

[swissie]

17 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

The figures I have posted are from Russian sources. Apart from the male female ratio

 

There's no doubt Ukraine is taking a battering. The battle losses are censored by Ukraine's military command. The question is whether the Ukrainians are killing Russian invaders in a favorable ratio.

Thanks for clarification.

Concerning the imbalance between males and females in Russia might be cause for worries, when this becomes widely know in the west.
- As any sort of "companionship" for Farangs has gotten harder (more expensive) in Thailand, could this encourage western seniors to look for greener pastures in Russia? Especially if this would be combined with an "easy retirement visa", in combination with a cheap Russian Ruble?

If a stampede should take place, it is always good to know that only the early participants of a stampede turn out to be true winners. American history, "How the west was won".😊

[swissie]

10 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

India was part of the British empire, so what? Empires rise and fall.

 

Ukrainians hate Russians, with good reason. How would you like it if a neighboring country deliberately starved a quarter of your population to death, then immigrated its own population into your country, and decreed their language was only to be taught in your schools?

Especially American Indians know all about it.

 

Some say, that the "Western Empire" is also in the process of "falling". Especially if Donald can help it.

[Lacessit]

12 minutes ago, swissie said:

Thanks for clarification.

Concerning the imbalance between males and females in Russia might be cause for worries, when this becomes widely know in the west.
- As any sort of "companionship" for Farangs has gotten harder (more expensive) in Thailand, could this encourage western seniors to look for greener pastures in Russia? Especially if this would be combined with an "easy retirement visa", in combination with a cheap Russian Ruble?

If a stampede should take place, it is always good to know that only the early participants of a stampede turn out to be true winners. American history, "How the west was won".😊

I doubt very much the charms of Russian women could offset the climate, food, and risk of being arrested as a Western spy.

 

I have not noticed companionship for farangs getting harder here. If my current GF was out of the picture, I'd have half a dozen women lining up to replace her.

[zmisha]

On 12/13/2024 at 8:26 PM, TedG said:

The people of Ukraine don’t want to be assiocsated with Russia. 

They have only two choices -  

1) WW3 or a local war with endless Minsk-1 Minsk-2 Minsk-3 and Minsk-100000 truce agreements and, finally, getting rest 2 meters below the ground level
2) Welcome back to the Soviet Union, the Vladimir Putin`s sweet dream

What would you choose if you were Ukrainian? It's not that easy to answer this question honestly.

[swissie]

30 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

I doubt very much the charms of Russian women could offset the climate, food, and risk of being arrested as a Western spy.

Surely, less western tourists visiting Russia. The chances of being arrested as a spy are slim (unless one posts on social media, calling Russia "the evil empire").

The chances of being abducted (for ransom) in "western countries" like Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Columbia, Ecuador are higher than being arrested as a spy in Russia.

Sufficient, you qualify as a "gringo". Not rich "gringos" get away with 1000$. Peanuts, not worth mentioning in the western press, but a daily occurence.

Well understood: Such things happen in the so called "west", not in Russia.

 

[TedG]

1 hour ago, zmisha said:

They have only two choices -  

1) WW3 or a local war with endless Minsk-1 Minsk-2 Minsk-3 and Minsk-100000 truce agreements and, finally, getting rest 2 meters below the ground level
2) Welcome back to the Soviet Union, the Vladimir Putin`s sweet dream

What would you choose if you were Ukrainian? It's not that easy to answer this question honestly.

There is a third choice.  Russia can become civilized and leave Ukraine.