UN Monitors Potential Asteroid Threat to Earth, collision "cannot yet be entirely ruled out"

[Social Media]

 

United Nations planetary defense organizations are closely observing an asteroid named 2024 YR4, which has a very small chance of impacting Earth in the future. While the European Space Agency (ESA) states that the asteroid has an almost 99% probability of safely passing Earth on December 22, 2032, experts acknowledge that a potential collision "cannot yet be entirely ruled out."

 

Currently, the likelihood of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on that date is estimated at 1.3%. Despite this, Dr. Robert Massey of the Royal Astronomical Society remains calm, stating, "I’m not panicking or losing sleep over it." He reassured the public, saying, "There is no need for alarm. The thing about this kind of event is that historically they tend to go away when the calculations are refined." However, he also emphasized the importance of vigilance, adding, "We need to be aware, alert, and we need to give astronomers the resources they need to track these kinds of threats so that we can take action as soon as possible."

 

The asteroid was first detected on December 27, 2024, and initial calculations suggest it measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter. If it were to collide with Earth, its impact could be equivalent to that of a nuclear explosion, causing significant damage, particularly if it were to hit a populated area. However, experts believe it is far more likely that YR4 would land in the ocean or in a remote location. At this stage, the asteroid is too distant, and too many uncertainties remain, to predict an exact impact location if a collision were to occur.

 

Since January, astronomers have been using telescopes to refine estimates of YR4’s size and trajectory. The asteroid is currently classified as a Level 3 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning it warrants attention from both scientists and the public. The scale ranges from 0 to 10, with a collision only considered certain at levels 8, 9, or 10. Historically, when an asteroid is initially calculated to have a small probability of impact, further observations usually lead to that probability dropping to zero. A similar situation occurred in 2004 when an asteroid named Apophis was initially thought to have a 2.7% chance of colliding with Earth in 2029, only for later calculations to rule out any risk.

 

When an object larger than 50 meters in diameter has a greater than 1% chance of impact, a series of precautionary steps are triggered. These measures ensure the threat is closely monitored and that, if necessary, actions can be taken to mitigate the risk. The first step involves activating two UN-endorsed asteroid response groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), led by NASA, and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), chaired by the ESA.

 

This week, SMPAG is conducting a series of meetings to assess its next steps. The organization has concluded that it is too early for immediate action but has pledged to "monitor the evolution of impact threat and possible knowledge about the size closely." Another meeting is expected to take place between late April and early May, though it could be scheduled earlier if the situation demands urgent attention. Should YR4’s impact probability remain above 1%, SMPAG will provide recommendations to the UN and may begin evaluating possible mitigation strategies.

 

In the unlikely event that YR4 were confirmed to be on a collision course with Earth, one potential solution would be to deflect it using a robotic spacecraft—a method successfully tested in 2022 with NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission. "NASA’s DART mission showed that we have the means to divert an asteroid, but only if we spot it early enough," Dr. Massey explained.

 

 

At present, YR4 is moving away from Earth in nearly a straight line, making precise orbit calculations difficult until it returns on a closer path. Over the next several months, the asteroid will become increasingly faint, making continued monitoring challenging. According to ESA, "It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032. In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA’s risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028."

 

Although the risk remains minimal, planetary defense organizations will continue tracking YR4, refining calculations, and preparing for any potential threats. For now, astronomers remain watchful but unconcerned, emphasizing that ongoing research and monitoring are the best tools to ensure Earth's safety from asteroid impacts.

 

Based on a report by BBC 2025-02-05

 

 

[jcmj]

Great time to make another asteroid movie. Almost the same odds as hitting the lottery. I wouldn’t even start to even think about it until it’s a couple years away, but someone needed to claim it and get some news. 

[gargamon]

15 minutes ago, jcmj said:

Great time to make another asteroid movie. Almost the same odds as hitting the lottery. I wouldn’t even start to even think about it until it’s a couple years away, but someone needed to claim it and get some news. 

Did you read the article? There's a 1.3% chance of it hitting earth. Same odds as the lottery? You must win a lot of money on the lottery.

[dinsdale]

3 hours ago, Social Media said:

United Nations planetary defense organizations are closely observing an asteroid named 2024 YR4, which has a very small chance of impacting Earth in the future.

 

3 hours ago, Social Media said:

Currently, the likelihood of 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on that date is estimated at 1.3%.

 

Time to panic folks. LOL.

[hotsun]

Theres worse ways to die. Its been a good life

[blaze master]

So that's why all the billionaires are moving to New Zealand.