Demonstrations continue in Bangkok

[hammered]

Oh another row about how many were at a TRT plus hangers on rally.

What next are they going to publically toss themselves off or hang themselves? Anyway plenty of TRT money flying around at the moment so I guess they can attract a fair few. Lets all pull our skids down for our version of selective and narrow democracy, while gouging our own eyes out so we dont see any of the anti-democratic actions committed by those we worship as gods.

[ColPyat]

Colypat first things first. As far as going to have a look, many of the ex-pat governments have warned us to stay away, looking at what happened at Prem’s house the advise is sound.

Second I do agree that there should be equal coverage of both pro and anti rallies, however recent history shows that the anti rallies are paid and staged thus making them a non news Item. If there was that much anti support it would be more visible around town. The anti rallies come across now as an employee gathering and that certainly is a non news item. When the march and attack on Prem’s house was clearly premeditated, they lost much of their clout.

The Thais I have talked to either are undecided or will vote for it. Most recognize that the new constitution will allow more money to flow down to the people. As for looking beyond that, well typically that level of in-depth thinking is not common and I have had few if any discussions beyond more government money getting down to the people. In short, very Thai.

I have seen many allegations of the anti coup rallies being paid for. What i have seen though is no proof, just allegations.

'

Personally - i have no doubts that some people are paid, but a minority. But pro constitution rallies are not just paid for, even worse - schoolchildren are commanded out of school to go marching for the constitution, without the authorities having asked the parents for consent.

As to having a look at the protests - nothing is going to happen to you if you have a look. I am not advising anyone to stick around during clashes, or to protest yourself. Just have a look.

[John K]

Well I would imagine a webcam some place. Also what you say is true that some are not paid. It became fairly obvious as to the numbers as who was not getting paid by the numbers protesting the release of the rally leaders a week or so ago. I think there were about 100 according to the news report. Only the people that were motivated from within bothered to show up as they appeared during the time a rally would have been scheduled.

Also the fact that suddenly they are not violent suggests that the mob of 5000 at Prem’s was paid to act violent. That mood would have not been changed so fast.

So now I am going to ask you to do some history research on the nature of violent mobs. You will discover that the violence just does not suddenly go away unless their demands are met. Check any place you want in any country and you will see exactly the same. The situation may suddenly explode but it takes days if not weeks to calm the situation down.

What I am saying Colpyat is just by reading the peoples actions you can know if it is real or purchased. The body language readings I am sorry to say, the anti rally is a purchased gathering.

[blaze]

Colypat first things first. As far as going to have a look, many of the ex-pat governments have warned us to stay away, looking at what happened at Prem’s house the advise is sound.

Second I do agree that there should be equal coverage of both pro and anti rallies, however recent history shows that the anti rallies are paid and staged thus making them a non news Item. If there was that much anti support it would be more visible around town. The anti rallies come across now as an employee gathering and that certainly is a non news item. When the march and attack on Prem’s house was clearly premeditated, they lost much of their clout.

The Thais I have talked to either are undecided or will vote for it. Most recognize that the new constitution will allow more money to flow down to the people. As for looking beyond that, well typically that level of in-depth thinking is not common and I have had few if any discussions beyond more government money getting down to the people. In short, very Thai.

I have seen many allegations of the anti coup rallies being paid for. What i have seen though is no proof, just allegations.

'

Personally - i have no doubts that some people are paid, but a minority. But pro constitution rallies are not just paid for, even worse - schoolchildren are commanded out of school to go marching for the constitution, without the authorities having asked the parents for consent.

As to having a look at the protests - nothing is going to happen to you if you have a look. I am not advising anyone to stick around during clashes, or to protest yourself. Just have a look.

Yes, given the extent of buying votes that is rumored to be going on, the authorities responsible for preventing this must be the most incompetent bunch of goons ever. In that not ONE, as far as I know, person has been charged with attempting to bribe people to vote no or abstain. Surely with the widespread bribery that some on this board claim, it shouldn't be that difficult to obtain a single arrest- or could it just be that these are nothing more than rumors and propaganda.

[blaze]

Well I would imagine a webcam some place. Also what you say is true that some are not paid. It became fairly obvious as to the numbers as who was not getting paid by the numbers protesting the release of the rally leaders a week or so ago. I think there were about 100 according to the news report. Only the people that were motivated from within bothered to show up as they appeared during the time a rally would have been scheduled.

Also the fact that suddenly they are not violent suggests that the mob of 5000 at Prem’s was paid to act violent. That mood would have not been changed so fast.

So now I am going to ask you to do some history research on the nature of violent mobs. You will discover that the violence just does not suddenly go away unless their demands are met. Check any place you want in any country and you will see exactly the same. The situation may suddenly explode but it takes days if not weeks to calm the situation down.

What I am saying Colpyat is just by reading the peoples actions you can know if it is real or purchased. The body language readings I am sorry to say, the anti rally is a purchased gathering.

You could tell that the rioters at Prem's were paid for by looking at their BODY LANGUAGE? My god.

As far as mobs only escelating until their demands are met- maybe take a look at the anti-globalist riots in Seattle, Quebec and Italy. I personally suspect that the people who orchestrated the riot at Prem's learned too late that they had overstepped what many on the fence would accept as permissable. And that is something that all activists take into account. Study history.

[hammered]

Well I would imagine a webcam some place. Also what you say is true that some are not paid. It became fairly obvious as to the numbers as who was not getting paid by the numbers protesting the release of the rally leaders a week or so ago. I think there were about 100 according to the news report. Only the people that were motivated from within bothered to show up as they appeared during the time a rally would have been scheduled.

Also the fact that suddenly they are not violent suggests that the mob of 5000 at Prem’s was paid to act violent. That mood would have not been changed so fast.

So now I am going to ask you to do some history research on the nature of violent mobs. You will discover that the violence just does not suddenly go away unless their demands are met. Check any place you want in any country and you will see exactly the same. The situation may suddenly explode but it takes days if not weeks to calm the situation down.

What I am saying Colpyat is just by reading the peoples actions you can know if it is real or purchased. The body language readings I am sorry to say, the anti rally is a purchased gathering.

You could tell that the rioters at Prem's were paid for by looking at their BODY LANGUAGE? My god.

As far as mobs only escelating until their demands are met- maybe take a look at the anti-globalist riots in Seattle, Quebec and Italy. I personally suspect that the people who orchestrated the riot at Prem's learned too late that they had overstepped what many on the fence would accept as permissable. And that is something that all activists take into account. Study history.

Agreed. Amazing.

[blaze]

Well I would imagine a webcam some place. Also what you say is true that some are not paid. It became fairly obvious as to the numbers as who was not getting paid by the numbers protesting the release of the rally leaders a week or so ago. I think there were about 100 according to the news report. Only the people that were motivated from within bothered to show up as they appeared during the time a rally would have been scheduled.

Also the fact that suddenly they are not violent suggests that the mob of 5000 at Prem’s was paid to act violent. That mood would have not been changed so fast.

So now I am going to ask you to do some history research on the nature of violent mobs. You will discover that the violence just does not suddenly go away unless their demands are met. Check any place you want in any country and you will see exactly the same. The situation may suddenly explode but it takes days if not weeks to calm the situation down.

What I am saying Colpyat is just by reading the peoples actions you can know if it is real or purchased. The body language readings I am sorry to say, the anti rally is a purchased gathering.

You could tell that the rioters at Prem's were paid for by looking at their BODY LANGUAGE? My god.

As far as mobs only escelating until their demands are met- maybe take a look at the anti-globalist riots in Seattle, Quebec and Italy. I personally suspect that the people who orchestrated the riot at Prem's learned too late that they had overstepped what many on the fence would accept as permissable. And that is something that all activists take into account. Study history.

Agreed. Amazing.

Not that amazing Hammered.

[John K]

Actually I was talking about the group at SL. The contrast between the personality of rallies is too great. If the attack on Prem was truly real, we would be looking at more of a riot situation and random acts of violence across Bangkok. Think about the last time you were angry or highly motivated. How long before it faded or were you just able to turn it off instantly?

The anti globalist riots in the places you mention are a good point. They assemble at the location of the summit and leave when it is over. The emotion lingers in that they follow to the next location. As I recall they start staging a few days in advance but don’t expend their energy until the targets have arrived.

The situation is not the same because the target is not mobile in Thailand. When you consider the possibility that the nine leaders that were jailed were the ones with the cash, it’s becomes very clear how much is paid by how inactive things were while they were in jail.

Also violence it a Thaksin tactic, the PAD had no problem keeping people under control.

[ColPyat]

Well I would imagine a webcam some place. Also what you say is true that some are not paid. It became fairly obvious as to the numbers as who was not getting paid by the numbers protesting the release of the rally leaders a week or so ago. I think there were about 100 according to the news report. Only the people that were motivated from within bothered to show up as they appeared during the time a rally would have been scheduled.

Also the fact that suddenly they are not violent suggests that the mob of 5000 at Prem’s was paid to act violent. That mood would have not been changed so fast.

So now I am going to ask you to do some history research on the nature of violent mobs. You will discover that the violence just does not suddenly go away unless their demands are met. Check any place you want in any country and you will see exactly the same. The situation may suddenly explode but it takes days if not weeks to calm the situation down.

What I am saying Colpyat is just by reading the peoples actions you can know if it is real or purchased. The body language readings I am sorry to say, the anti rally is a purchased gathering.

The reason that there are presently only 100 or so protesters at the different events all over town is a strategy, and not because they cannot muster more. They even have a name for that strategy,i have though forgotten it, sorry.

As to the event at Prem's house - it was not an attack against Prem's house. The protesters have broken through the barricades, with hardly any resistance of the police during the march, and then, when they reached Prem's house, have stayed there peacefully for several hours until police was ordered to disperse the protesters and arrest the leaders. By that time from the estimated 15 000 to 20 000 protesters only about 5000 were left.

At that point all hel_l broke lose, and both sides used violence against each other. There was no attempt to violently break through into Prem's compound (in such a case we would have seen dead people as army was stationed inside Prem's compound.

As there were no serious injuries on both sides, apart from one cop with a broken leg, and a few protesters with simple fractures, i would suggest not to overvalue what happened there. Compared to most violent demonstration in Europe, in stable democracies, the event as Prem's compound was minor. Both sides have to be congratulated for their restraint, and that nothing worse has happened there.

The violence stopped when the protesters retreated themselves when the police started their fourth attack.

[Tony Clifton]

Although the rainy season isn't yet over, protesters are already proceeding with the "slash and burn".

Panya Surakamjonroj, leader of the Grass-roots Group for Democracy, slashes his arm in protest against the junta and the ‘dictator’s constitution’ during a rally by 50 activists at the Democracy Monument yesterday.

Protesters set fire to a coffin labelled ‘Constitution of 2007’ during last night’s protest at Sanam Luang by the Democratic Alliance Against Democracy.

From The Nation's front page.

[sriracha john]

When's the next taxi driver going to test his car's bumper against a tank at high speed?

Edited August 18, 2007 by sriracha john

[Kna]

10000 protesters.....

and...

The picture taken on the same day but different angle....

So... 10000 protesters.... err....riiight....

Those pics are a little bit old but it serve its purpose, no?

Of course, they will want to say there are 1,0000 ppl in there because more ppl = more money they can get from Tukky

taken from... http://forum.serithai.net/index.php?topic=14355.0

[hammered]

10000 protesters.....

and...

The picture taken on the same day but different angle....

So... 10000 protesters.... err....riiight....

Those pics are a little bit old but it serve its purpose, no?

Of course, they will want to say there are 1,0000 ppl in there because more ppl = more money they can get from Tukky

taken from... http://forum.serithai.net/index.php?topic=14355.0

High angle shots of demos are always the best at number analysis while low angle show little. A classic case is the Lebanon where both sides held demonstrations at the same landmark. Hezbollah showed high angle shots because they could turn out 500K plus without trying while the government side used low angle and claimed 500K. When high angle shots of the government side rally were released on the internet the difference in rally sizes was obvious.

Similar tactics here, possibly. It is not easy to get high angle shots of the rallies so it is not easy to estimate numbers. Other ways of estimating are not as accurate as ther density of demonstrators is hard to estimate. To say a ground is full. Well it depends on seating, standing, degree of close proximity and an estimate of these for the whole area based on a view from only one position to actually make a guess.

It probably isnt worth having a row on numbers unless one wants to do analysis of a high angle picture taken at the peak of the rally.

The numbers that count at the moment are the ones on Sunday, and not those at some demo. If TRT still has the support it claims the charter will be easily rejected. Personally I think it will be very close and could go either way.

[John K]

I guess you can say reduced 84% or 79% applies to the number of people.

[chevykanteve]

Colypat first things first. As far as going to have a look, many of the ex-pat governments have warned us to stay away, looking at what happened at Prem’s house the advise is sound.

Second I do agree that there should be equal coverage of both pro and anti rallies, however recent history shows that the anti rallies are paid and staged thus making them a non news Item. If there was that much anti support it would be more visible around town. The anti rallies come across now as an employee gathering and that certainly is a non news item. When the march and attack on Prem’s house was clearly premeditated, they lost much of their clout.

The Thais I have talked to either are undecided or will vote for it. Most recognize that the new constitution will allow more money to flow down to the people. As for looking beyond that, well typically that level of in-depth thinking is not common and I have had few if any discussions beyond more government money getting down to the people. In short, very Thai.

I have seen many allegations of the anti coup rallies being paid for. What i have seen though is no proof, just allegations.

'

Personally - i have no doubts that some people are paid, but a minority. But pro constitution rallies are not just paid for, even worse - schoolchildren are commanded out of school to go marching for the constitution, without the authorities having asked the parents for consent.

As to having a look at the protests - nothing is going to happen to you if you have a look. I am not advising anyone to stick around during clashes, or to protest yourself. Just have a look.

I too find this use of schoolchildren to be reprehensible. What a sick system to condone such action. Those kids have as much understanding of what's happening as the younger Hitler Youth had.

[ColPyat]

So... 10000 protesters.... err....riiight....

Those pics are a little bit old but it serve its purpose, no?

Of course, they will want to say there are 1,0000 ppl in there because more ppl = more money they can get from Tukky

taken from... http://forum.serithai.net/index.php?topic=14355.0

The pics were posted at Saturday, the 9th of June. It does not say though when the pictures were taken - at that Saturday, or during the week.

And, the whole of Sanam Luang fits about 100 000 people. On that picture are definitely more than 1000 people, my guess would be somewhere around 4000. Which would be the average attendance during weekdays.

And one more edit - the time this picture was taken looks to me around sunset. The height of attendance is usually around 8 pm.

Basically - this picture proofs nothing at all.

Edited August 18, 2007 by ColPyat

[Tony Clifton]

I've played in outdoor concerts in parks, inside stadiums and halls (no not as Tony Clifton ). We were mostly always told about crowd assistance before hopping on stage. I'd say Colpyat is about right at 4000.

[blaze]

I've played in outdoor concerts in parks, inside stadiums and halls (no not as Tony Clifton ). We were mostly always told about crowd assistance before hopping on stage. quote]

C'mon Tony you can't make a statement like that and expect me to stay on topic. With who? April Wine? No- no- wait- Crowbar. Huh? Was it Crowbar? It was was't it. Crowbar- well I'll be damned.

Edited August 18, 2007 by blaze

[ColPyat]

I've played in outdoor concerts in parks, inside stadiums and halls (no not as Tony Clifton ). We were mostly always told about crowd assistance before hopping on stage. I'd say Colpyat is about right at 4000.

WOW, thank you.

I always try to get the most accurate number of participants, and regardless of my sympathies or antipathies, or other contributing factors. I am disgusted at the numbers games from all sides of the fence, starting from extreme exaggerations of the PAD, where generally the attendance was increased by a factor of at least 5 times (the highest number of a PAD demonstration was to my recollection about 80 000 , mostly though in the range of 30000 to 40000 at big events) - never was there the claimed several hundred thousands), or the now lowering of numbers of the UDD demonstrations (and now - i do not care about some of the exagerated claims of some UDD leaders as well).

The caravan of the poor rallies at Chatuchak were impossible to guesstimate because of the layout of the park.

Generally, in the present UDD demonstrations the numbers fluctuate between 2000 (at rainy days) and 5000 during weekdays, and 8000 to 12000 at weekends, while during large events such as marches it goes from ten thousand up to 15 000 and at even at times 20000.

The largest event of the present rallies was clearly the recent TRT speech at Sanam Luang, which i would put at about 40000 to 50000 people. This was so far a one off.

[AGareth2]

From reading the threads I am confused.

what's the topic?

[hammered]

As I said before, little point in having a row over the number of a bunch of rally goers. The numbers that count are those tomorrow. TRT claim 14 million or something. If they can turn them out by fair means or foul the no vote wins allowing for a 50-60% turnout, if they cant well I guess they cant go round saying 14 million anymore at least until the next vote when we get to play it all again.

[Plus]

So demonstrations continue and even attract fifty thousand unpaid people to attend.

In other threads we read about how the government harasses those who campaign against the referendum.

Q: Which way is it?

A: There's only one true way - against the junta.

Q: What's the real situation?

A: Irrelevant question that does not lead to enlightment that the junta is evil

[ColPyat]

As I said before, little point in having a row over the number of a bunch of rally goers. The numbers that count are those tomorrow. TRT claim 14 million or something. If they can turn them out by fair means or foul the no vote wins allowing for a 50-60% turnout, if they cant well I guess they cant go round saying 14 million anymore at least until the next vote when we get to play it all again.

Tomorrow's number will not count for much.

It would if the "No" vote campaigners would have been given equal access to medias, if they would have been allowed to equally set up stages all over the country, if several of their activists would not have been arrested, intimidated and their campaign materials not have been confiscated by the authorities. Martial law is still enacted in many provinces, and campaigning by the opponents of the constitution not possible.

Reach Prachathai (definitely not a pro Thaksin website) for articles on many incidents. New mandala also has an article by the highly respected field researcher Michael Nelson.

Accusations of alleged vote buying (proof please, not just rumors), without taking into consideration the millions spent by tax payers money from the government, the commanding of school children out of their schools for pro constitution campaigns on the streets without asking for consent for their parents. The radio "discussions" in which speakers hint at that if the constitution would be rejected elections would be delayed (yesterday in the taxi i had to listen to such a "discussion"). The attempt by the government to put all opponents of the new constitution into the Thaksin camp.

To call this referendum free and fair is a joke. It is a larger perversion than even TRT has done with elections. I would be very surprised that under those restricted conditions the draft would be rejected.

Only a rejection would be a clear signal, an approval would change very little - opponents would still be against it, citing all the reasons for unfair elections that many very respected researchers have already pointed out.

[ColPyat]

In other threads we read about how the government harasses those who campaign against the referendum.

Read Prachathai, definately not a pro Thaksin organisation. There are many articles on the harassment of constitution opponents.

[John K]

Ok I am going technical here. I just popped this up on Google Earth to get some measurements so there is no dispute. Sanam Luang is about 140 meters wide east to west. Looking at the photo where the stage is they appear to have about 100 meters in front of the stage. The crowd appears to be about 60 meters wide from the photo. Comfortably without everyone getting too intimate each person takes up about 1 square meter. Seeing as the 6000 meter area is not fully packed 4000 to 4500 people is a fair estimate. Looking closely at the photo it is clearly late dusk. Sunset was at 6:38 pm so I would say the photo was about 7:00pm as the building in the lower right seems to be lighter on the west side but no direct sunlight. I am sorry I could not find the original photo to see if I could find the actual time stamp.

[Supaporn]

Ok I am going technical here. I just popped this up on Google Earth to get some measurements so there is no dispute. Sanam Luang is about 140 meters wide east to west. Looking at the photo where the stage is they appear to have about 100 meters in front of the stage. The crowd appears to be about 60 meters wide from the photo. Comfortably without everyone getting too intimate each person takes up about 1 square meter. Seeing as the 6000 meter area is not fully packed 4000 to 4500 people is a fair estimate. Looking closely at the photo it is clearly late dusk. Sunset was at 6:38 pm so I would say the photo was about 7:00pm as the building in the lower right seems to be lighter on the west side but no direct sunlight. I am sorry I could not find the original photo to see if I could find the actual time stamp.

Some people clearly have far too much time on their hands

[John K]

Ok I am going technical here. I just popped this up on Google Earth to get some measurements so there is no dispute. Sanam Luang is about 140 meters wide east to west. Looking at the photo where the stage is they appear to have about 100 meters in front of the stage. The crowd appears to be about 60 meters wide from the photo. Comfortably without everyone getting too intimate each person takes up about 1 square meter. Seeing as the 6000 meter area is not fully packed 4000 to 4500 people is a fair estimate. Looking closely at the photo it is clearly late dusk. Sunset was at 6:38 pm so I would say the photo was about 7:00pm as the building in the lower right seems to be lighter on the west side but no direct sunlight. I am sorry I could not find the original photo to see if I could find the actual time stamp.

Some people clearly have far too much time on their hands

I can tell your new. This could have dragged on for 2 or 3 pages if some solid information was not presented. Anyway welcome to TV.

[Tony Clifton]

Ok I am going technical here. I just popped this up on Google Earth to get some measurements so there is no dispute. Sanam Luang is about 140 meters wide east to west. Looking at the photo where the stage is they appear to have about 100 meters in front of the stage. The crowd appears to be about 60 meters wide from the photo. Comfortably without everyone getting too intimate each person takes up about 1 square meter. Seeing as the 6000 meter area is not fully packed 4000 to 4500 people is a fair estimate. Looking closely at the photo it is clearly late dusk. Sunset was at 6:38 pm so I would say the photo was about 7:00pm as the building in the lower right seems to be lighter on the west side but no direct sunlight. I am sorry I could not find the original photo to see if I could find the actual time stamp.

Some people clearly have far too much time on their hands

I thought that was a clever way of trying to get an estimate.

[Maxi101]

As I said before, little point in having a row over the number of a bunch of rally goers. The numbers that count are those tomorrow. TRT claim 14 million or something. If they can turn them out by fair means or foul the no vote wins allowing for a 50-60% turnout, if they cant well I guess they cant go round saying 14 million anymore at least until the next vote when we get to play it all again.

Tomorrow's number will not count for much.

It would if the "No" vote campaigners would have been given equal access to medias, if they would have been allowed to equally set up stages all over the country, if several of their activists would not have been arrested, intimidated and their campaign materials not have been confiscated by the authorities. Martial law is still enacted in many provinces, and campaigning by the opponents of the constitution not possible.

Reach Prachathai (definitely not a pro Thaksin website) for articles on many incidents. New mandala also has an article by the highly respected field researcher Michael Nelson.

Accusations of alleged vote buying (proof please, not just rumors), without taking into consideration the millions spent by tax payers money from the government, the commanding of school children out of their schools for pro constitution campaigns on the streets without asking for consent for their parents. The radio "discussions" in which speakers hint at that if the constitution would be rejected elections would be delayed (yesterday in the taxi i had to listen to such a "discussion"). The attempt by the government to put all opponents of the new constitution into the Thaksin camp.

To call this referendum free and fair is a joke. It is a larger perversion than even TRT has done with elections. I would be very surprised that under those restricted conditions the draft would be rejected.

Only a rejection would be a clear signal, an approval would change very little - opponents would still be against it, citing all the reasons for unfair elections that many very respected researchers have already pointed out.

Dear Coly,

don't be to pessimistic, maybe we are in for a suprise. The majority of the thai people might not be highly educated but well they are by far not stupid. They have their own way.

In my experience the more you try to obviously to manipulate them the more you can expect the opposite.

It is sad but in the rural areas people who stood up against Taksin and did the NO vote in his last "election" are although they don't approve of the "new form" afraid to state their opinion in the public.

Anyway as long they have a secret vote .... the outcome is not sure. Maybe even as protest against the "new leaders" for the economic trouble - which even if you might think wasn't caused by the junta fells very coincidentally in their term.

So lets wait and see.

[ColPyat]

Dear Coly,

don't be to pessimistic, maybe we are in for a suprise. The majority of the thai people might not be highly educated but well they are by far not stupid. They have their own way.

In my experience the more you try to obviously to manipulate them the more you can expect the opposite.

It is sad but in the rural areas people who stood up against Taksin and did the NO vote in his last "election" are although they don't approve of the "new form" afraid to state their opinion in the public.

Anyway as long they have a secret vote .... the outcome is not sure. Maybe even as protest against the "new leaders" for the economic trouble - which even if you might think wasn't caused by the junta fells very coincidentally in their term.

So lets wait and see.

Well, if i am pessimistic i can only be positively surprised.

But yes, the economic problems, based on my insufficient understanding of economics, is to a large part caused by external factors, but exaggerated by the many incompetent decisions of this government. Such as introducing a national economical policy that has been called several funny names by international publications, cannot be criticized, and is even part of the constitution draft now.