Nobody will trust a US treaty again,’ and Japan’s yen is now the new safe haven currency

[Flyguy330]

And China still harbouring revenge for WW2.

[camper star]

Just now, blaze master said:

 

Of course I am. Like this joke of a thread Japan is in serious trouble in the coming years never mind a safe haven. Which may be the case in the extreme short term. But let's be real Japan is no safe haven. 

You got  a point there. Many young people  come here and stay till they get retirement age. Here in Japan, one does not collect Nenkin ( Japanese pension ) till the age of 65. SS of an American my age kicks in at 62.  By the way since I collect Nenkin, the payment is every 2 months, not every month and people such as me collect about 34000 yen every 2 months. Young people don't know that, well, neither did I as I was paying 14000 yen every month for many years. Japan is a big ripoff.

[camper star]

12 minutes ago, Flyguy330 said:

And China still harbouring revenge for WW2.

That is why I never understood why Japanese companies moved to China. I don't think many Japanese companies moved to South Korea though.

[TedG]

2 hours ago, Flyguy330 said:

And China still harbouring revenge for WW2.

Aginst the Japanese? 

[Flyguy330]

1 hour ago, TedG said:

Aginst the Japanese? 

YES! They hate them, with good reason. The Japanese carried out monstrous atrocities against Chinese civilians. Read "The Rape of Nanking" (Nanjing).

Japan honours the army which carried out those atrocities. The Yasukuni Shrine is dedicated to them, and is often visited by newly elected Prime Ministers, to the anger of China:

Next Japan PM's potential Yasukuni visit would anger China, South Korea

 

Random Japanese businesses and individuals are regularly targetted for attack in China because of WW2 resentment in China;

Schoolboy's killing in China sparks Japanese fears

[TedG]

11 minutes ago, Flyguy330 said:

YES! They hate them, with good reason. The Japanese carried out monstrous atrocities against Chinese civilians. Read "The Rape of Nanking" (Nanjing).

Japan honours the army which carried out those atrocities. The Yasukuni Shrine is dedicated to them, and is often visited by newly elected Prime Ministers, to the anger of China:

Next Japan PM's potential Yasukuni visit would anger China, South Korea

 

Random Japanese businesses and individuals are regularly targetted for attack in China because of WW2 resentment in China;

Schoolboy's killing in China sparks Japanese fears

 

True, the Japanese were awful in WW2.    They have yet to own up to these atrocities.

[gargamon]

23 hours ago, hotsun said:

Youve been wrong with all youve said so far. Dont know how you think you still have dignity left for your opinions

So are you a fool, or a member of the Cult of the Orange Buffoon? Or both?

 

Oh, there's this key on your keyboard called an apostrophe. You should try and find it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-p2z8TLRNUQ

[hotsun]

2 minutes ago, gargamon said:

So are you a fool, or a member of the Cult of the Orange Buffoon? Or both?

 

Oh, there's this key on your keyboard called an apostrophe. You should try and find it.

When its 1 million per bitcoin, are you gonna be the moron quoting me when it drops to 990,000? Pathetic

[gargamon]

5 minutes ago, hotsun said:

When its 1 million per bitcoin, are you gonna be the moron quoting me when it drops to 990,000? Pathetic

That's the same nonsense I was hearing when I worked in silicon valley during the dot com bubble. We don't need to make anything, we don't need profits. We just need eyeballs. Most of those companies are now out of business. Thankfully I was an hourly consultant getting ridiculous amounts of money, not one of the sucker employees getting stock options that ended up being worthless, just like crypto will be. I retired at 45 when the bubble popped.

[hotsun]

25 minutes ago, gargamon said:

That's the same nonsense I was hearing when I worked in silicon valley during the dot com bubble. We don't need to make anything, we don't need profits. We just need eyeballs. Most of those companies are now out of business. Thankfully I was an hourly consultant getting ridiculous amounts of money, not one of the sucker employees getting stock options that ended up being worthless, just like crypto will be. I retired at 45 when the bubble popped.

You speak of something you havent done any research on. You dont understand why its currently priced as it is now, you wont understand when its 1 million. I suspect you will stop posting about it. No cure for stupid

 

everyone buys bitcoin at the price they deserve. Lefties havent got a clue whats coming, this guy is talking about the japanese yen. Bitcoin is a wealth transfer from the morons who dont understand inflation to people who spend a few hours to understand money a little bit better

[gargamon]

11 minutes ago, hotsun said:

You speak of something you havent done any research on. You dont understand why its currently priced as it is now, you wont understand when its 1 million. I suspect you will stop posting about it. No cure for stupid

 

everyone buys bitcoin at the price they deserve. Lefties havent got a clue whats coming, this guy is talking about the japanese yen. Bitcoin is a wealth transfer from the morons who dont understand inflation to people who spend a few hours to understand money a little bit better

Yada yada yada

[hotsun]

Just now, gargamon said:

Yada yada yada

Tell your children its a ponzi scheme too. Any family too. Be remembered as the moron for the rest of their lives

[sandyf]

On 3/10/2025 at 4:50 PM, Cameroni said:

 

Yes, it particularly stand out for having been beaten about the head mercilesly by the USD for the last few years.

Enjoy the fantasy land, while it lasts.

 

"But investors should be paying more attention because the U.S. won’t be able to sit back and let its debt soar to the levels seen in Japan. For one thing, Japan’s net debt is much lower than its gross debt-to-GDP ratio, meaning it holds more foreign assets than it owes to other countries — the exact opposite of the US. This makes it easier for Japan to manage its growing debt pile."

https://cointelegraph.com/news/america-debt-out-control-japan-debt-isnt

[SlappyMc]

On 3/9/2025 at 7:02 PM, placeholder said:

• Quantum Strategy’s David Roche said “NATO is dead” as the US distances itself from European allies and warms up to Russia. That makes Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping the big winners and the US the “big loser,” he added, with Japan’s yen displacing the dollar as the world’s safe haven currency.

An American promise is looking more doubtful as the US upends traditional geopolitics, with repercussions in global financial markets, according to Quantum Strategy’s David Roche.

https://fortune.com/2025/03/09/us-treaty-nato-ukraine-russia-trump-japan-yen-safe-haven-dedollarization/

 

There's also the fact that Trump is violating a trade agreement, the USMCA, the impetus for which he himself initiated and then signed onto.

Is he one of the economic illiterates who predicted that sanctions would be the end of Putin's war? If so, he doesn't know jack. Nobody cares for anything but a single promise, the US backs the dollar. Everything else is beside the point.

 

Oh, and can you kindly tell the nitwit Roche that is a little hard to dedollarize when:

United States is the world's largest consumer market, accounting for 30% of global consumer spending despite representing only 4.2% of the global population.

If you haven't figured it out yet, and you haven't, the problem is that US debt is not sustainable. Interest on the debt, forget about ever repaying the principal, is now 2nd largest US debt, after SS. Unless something is done, some time during your grandkids lives, debt will be no. 1 and that means doom, not only for the US but also for all those addicted to US consumption. Like all addicts they take umbrage when we try wean them off a little. Is in both of our interests to do so.

 

Tell you what, never mind tariffs, the fed can manage the dollar just like the Chicoms manage the renminbi. Next time you run across Xi, kindly tell him for me that managing the renminbi to be substantially lower than what the market would set means that the Chinese economy is distorted since better to invest for export than in things domestic. Why did he and Chicoms do that? Rich nations got rich by riding the export gravy train. Perhaps some might try reading a history book.

 

Almost forgot, when they dedollarize kindly tell them that such means that they too can patrol the earth's oceans and seas to protect international commerce, just like the British Navy before us. No more free rides, lads, and lasses, as we have zero desire to become the UK's shell of what it once was.

 

For yet one more, might I suggest that you stop reading when the article reports...as he told CNBC. Re that steaming pile of poo for an article:

 

But since his first term, they have stepped up their outlays, with three-fourths now spending 2% of their GDP or more on their militaries after just the US, UK and Greece met that benchmark in 2015, according to a tally by the Associated Press.

 

So, it took the Russian invasion of Ukraine to get them to pony up. France and Germany did not reach 2% until last year. The Germans are lucky if they can field more than a single combat division and as some noted, doesn't matter in any event as they are unable to provide their own air support. Perhaps the Euros might want to ponder the matter of whether their recalcitrance prompted the Russkie invasion in the first instance. For those not in the know, predators do well when it comes to grasping weakness. The sons and daughters of the Nazi scum win the grand prize, since how long was it, after the invasion, that they were still spending millions on Russian natural gas. Oh, and here's Orangie on both:

 

 

 

[placeholder]

On 3/10/2025 at 1:27 PM, Cameroni said:

 

Yes indeed, it tells me traders have taken note of the BOJ pronouncements to support the Yen.

 

But as you can see, the Yen is in a clear downtrend against the Dollar, the recent short lived rally is hardly an indication of trend. Lol.

And because it has been in a clear downward trend, that trend is going to continue? Do graphs have some sort of magical power to your way of thinking? You might ask yourself if things have changed in a significant way. Now there's an erratic loon setting policy for the American economy. Not just my opinion. Or do you have another explanations of why economists overwhelmingly believe Trump's policies are economically destructive and traders are fleeing the dollar?

[transam]

Whilst the orange man is in the big chair, a man who doesn't know what he is doing, I guess folk fear doing anything with the USA until someone sensible takes control.  🤔

 

Trump getting Musk involved has turned Trump into a laughingstock, relying on an idiot with a fake chainsaw.  🙄

 

Like the UK, the populace voted in bad news, and are now paying for it......😢

[Cameroni]

14 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And because it has been in a clear downward trend, that trend is going to continue? Do graphs have some sort of magical power to your way of thinking? You might ask yourself if things have changed in a significant way. Now there's an erratic loon setting policy for the American economy. Not just my opinion. Or do you have another explanations of why economists overwhelmingly believe Trump's policies are economically destructive and traders are fleeing the dollar?

 

Well, right now UJ is going up. It's hard to make a prediction here because UJ has gone up so MUCH, and therefore the Yen has fallen so much, that it has indeed corrected a bit recently. As you know the Dollar Index has gone down. But indications are the Dollar Index will go up. Then again the BOJ has indicated it will support the Yen. But right now UJ is going up again, so the downward trend for the Yen is indeed continuing.

 

Technicaly analysis is extremely useful, but I also look at fundamental data to make trades. As for economists beliefs about the economy, it's like with scientists you put 10 in a room and you get 12 opinion, unless they started an investment fund and are trading profitably don't even bother to quote them. Their guess is as good as mine.

 

 

 

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Well, right now UJ is going up. It's hard to make a prediction here because UJ has gone up so MUCH, and therefore the Yen has fallen so much, that it has indeed corrected a bit recently. As you know the Dollar Index has gone down. But indications are the Dollar Index will go up. Then again the BOJ has indicated it will support the Yen. But right now UJ is going up again, so the downward trend for the Yen is indeed continuing.

 

Technicaly analysis is extremely useful, but I also look at fundamental data to make trades. As for economists beliefs about the economy, it's like with scientists you put 10 in a room and you get 12 opinion, unless they started an investment fund and are trading profitably don't even bother to quote them. Their guess is as good as mine.

 

 

 

No, this isn't a case where you get 12 different opinions. Opinions are pretty much unanimous except for a few cranks and members of Trump's cabinet. In some cases that's a distinction without a difference. 

[placeholder]

On 3/10/2025 at 1:58 PM, Cameroni said:

 

Of course it could never happen. If ever the US economic incentives fail the US could simply take what it wants with its superior military. Let's hope and pray that will never happen and the worst we're exposed to is economic coercion.

Where do you get your understanding of how economies work? Is your model the Roman Empire? Or the Third Reich? Did you think Russians carting off stuff from Ukraine gave a big boost to their economy? More than ever the most advanced economies depend on highly advanced technologies. You can lug off all the chipmaking machines from Taiwan that you like, but without the expertise to run them and to develop them further, how much are they worth? You think the USA can compel conquered technologists and researchers to work for them? And of course, from a military standpoint, we now live in an age of asymmetrical warfare. Not so easy to subdue hostile populations anymore.

[Cameroni]

32 minutes ago, placeholder said:

No, this isn't a case where you get 12 different opinions. Opinions are pretty much unanimous except for a few cranks and members of Trump's cabinet. In some cases that's a distinction without a difference. 

 

You want to read this article:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/61f289b7-a953-4067-a8a3-9bb1ba7f16da

[Cameroni]

32 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You think the USA can compel conquered technologists and researchers to work for them?

 

Actually the US did exactly that in the past. How do you think they went to the moon?

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

You want to read this article:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/61f289b7-a953-4067-a8a3-9bb1ba7f16da

The trouble with this article is that it doesn't recognize how much more interconnected world trade has become since then. And even according to this author, to judge by what he links to, there's a huge difference between across-the-board tariffs  which is what Trump is proposing, and very strategically targeted tariffs. And no, there isn't a coherent strategy behind targeting aluminum and steel. In fact, it's one of the dumbest tariffs that can be imposed.

[Cameroni]

Just now, placeholder said:

The trouble with this article is that it doesn't recognize how much more interconnected world trade has become since then. And even according to this author, to judge by what he links to, there's a huge difference between across-the-board tariffs  which is what Trump is proposing, and very strategically targeted tariffs. And no, there isn't a coherent strategy behind targeting aluminum and steel. In fact, it's one of the dumbest tariffs that can be imposed.

 

The big takeaway there is that economic orthodoxy is not necessarily that useful in a modern economy, and also that the benefit of tariffs depends on the context.

 

i don't think it's dumb to put a tariff on steel or aluminium, in fact in the US context it makes a lot of sense. It will lead to US produced steel and aluminium on a greater scale. It will reduce subsidies on Canada. Not to mention bring in a lot of tariff money into the tax pot of the US.

[simple1]

On 3/10/2025 at 4:21 PM, Yagoda said:

Cant have utopia without the boss, and there isnt a better boss than us. We make the rules. 

 

You guys have your own worries. Our worry is China. Im sure you will get your chance to choose your master someday.

 

Lets see the outcome of the current Administration actions in four years time. My guess, with the overwhelming hubris of the MAGA movement, US will be on a downhill trend.

[rough diamond]

2 minutes ago, simple1 said:

 

Lets see the outcome of the current Administration actions in four years time. My guess, with the overwhelming hubris of the MAGA movement, US will be on a downhill trend.

That will be far too late for far too many people that he has already impacted in this short space of time.

God knows what damage he will have done to them and others in 4 years.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Cameroni said:

 

The big takeaway there is that economic orthodoxy is not necessarily that useful in a modern economy, and also that the benefit of tariffs depends on the context.

 

i don't think it's dumb to put a tariff on steel or aluminium, in fact in the US context it makes a lot of sense. It will lead to US produced steel and aluminium on a greater scale. It will reduce subsidies on Canada. Not to mention bring in a lot of tariff money into the tax pot of the US.

Congratulations! You found one contrarian. And Ricardo's observation are more relevant than ever in the modern world economy where self-sufficiency is a pipe dream. And spare us the comparisons of this fellow to Galileo or the like. For every one Galileo, there are thousands of cranks.

 

The problem with tariffs on steel and aluminum is obvious. It takes relatively few workers to produce steel and aluminium. So very few Americans benefited. But the higher costs of these raw materials will obviously promote inflation. Certainly in the automobile industry but far beyond that, too. Ya think the problem with automobiles is that they're priced too low?